Twins 2022 Position Analysis: Relief Pitcher

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins have not shown a propensity to invest heavily in their bullpen. Instead, their preferred approach is to gather a wealth of interesting, flexible options and sort through them during the season.

It can work, but as they learned last year, sometimes the learning experience can be very costly.

Projected Bullpen: Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Alcalá, Jharel Cotton, Joe Smith, Jhoan Duran, Danny Coulombe

Depth/Prospects: Griffin Jax, Jhon Romero, Jovani Moran, Juan Minaya, Cody Stashak, Jake Faria, Yennier Cano, Drew Strotman, Lewis Thorpe, Trevor Megill, Ronny Henriquez

THE GOOD

During the first three months of the 2021 season, Twins relievers ranked 26th in the majors in the fWAR, 27th in FIP, and 25th in WPA. During the last three months, they ranked 13th, 15th and 4th in those respective categories. 

You might not have noticed it, due to the team's total irrelevance after May or so, but the bullpen improved dramatically from the first to second half. It was night and day. And it's not the first time we've seen this pattern play out. Back in 2019, Twins relievers ranked 10th in the majors in fWAR and 12th in FIP over the first three months, then led all of baseball in both categories the rest of the way. 

The front office and coaching staff have shown they can make this work: creating depth, then sorting through it until you find the right mix you can trust. Meanwhile, when looking at how poorly this regime's biggest bullpen splashes have panned in Alex Colomé and Addison Reed, who both looked like relatively safe plays, it's easy to understand why they'd opt against pouring investments into established commodities.

There's a lot to like here. Taylor Rogers has consistently been one of the league's most effective late-inning relievers since 2018, and his sterling performance this spring helps alleviate concerns around any lingering effects from last year's finger injury. Tyler Duffey and Caleb Thielbar have proven to be rock-solid setup men. Jorge Alcalá offered real signs of optimism with his 2.88 ERA and .195 BAA last year after the All-Star break, playing a huge role in the bullpen's second-half turnaround. Joe Smith and Jharel Cotton were nice veteran pickups for the middle innings.

There are also a some wild cards in the mix adding another level of intrigue. Chief among them is Jhoan Duran, who has been dazzling people with his incredible stuff this spring. He appears to be healthy and throwing at his best while the Twins are transitioning him into a full-on relief role. It's a perfect storm. He looms as a monster difference-maker in this pen.

I've written about Griffin Jax as a guy whose stock could skyrocket in a relief role, and like Duran, the team is poised to tap that potential in short order. Jovani Moran has flashed good stuff from the left side. And any of the club's various pitching prospects – many of whom were discussed in our SP analysis – have a chance to impact the bullpen, especially with the likelihood that Minnesota will be looking for length and multi-inning options. 

THE BAD

Last year we learned about the downside of sorting out a bullpen during the season: those early lesson through failure can be extremely costly. By the time Colomé pulled it together and the Twins moved on from some laggards, the relief unit had already played a huge role in tanking their season.

This is the nature of the bullpen: it is a fickle beast, and yet so dramatically influential to the outcome of a season. Great bullpens carry teams into the playoffs and beyond. Bad bullpens can put an otherwise decent squad out of the running by June. 

This year's unit for the Twins really feels like it could go either way. That's always somewhat true, given the volatility of relief pitching, but the variability feels especially high right now. 

Rogers was at his best before going down last year, but we need to see him keep on cooking. At 31, his age is becoming as much of a regression factor as his injury. Duffey's performance last year included a bunch of ominous signs – most notably a drop in velocity and a HUGE drop in whiff rate. Alcalá has had his moments but feels hard to trust given the inconsistency.   

And let's keep in mind, this represents their first line of defense. Once you get past these established contributors, you're looking at mostly unproven prospects and minor-league signings. 

I'm not going to wring my hands over the lack of spending at this position (where the sum total of salaries will barely surpass that of White Sox closer Liam Hendriks alone), because relief free agency becomes such a hazardous game of darts, as we've seen. 

If the Twins can identify the right guys, implement the right tweaks, and pull the right strings, they'll be in good shape. Unfortunately, last year was not a great confidence-builder in their ability to do so. At least not until too late.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Lots of talent. Lots of question marks. The Twins have shown in the past they can handle a bullpen – they methodically developed the league's best in 2019, and it carried over to 2020 where they tied Tampa for the AL lead in bullpen fWAR – but last year's unraveling dimmed their shine.

It's a big "prove it" year for Wes Johnson, Pete Maki, and the entire Twins pitching braintrust. Was 2021 a blip or a breakdown? 

Catch Up on the Rest of Our 2022 Previews:

• Position Analysis: Catcher
• Position Analysis: First Base
• Position Analysis: Second Base
• Position Analysis: Third Base
• Position Analysis: Shortstop
• Position Analysis: Left Field
• Position Analysis: Center Field
• Position Analysis: Right Field
• Position Analysis: Designated Hitter
• Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher

 

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[HrbieFan]

I just don't trust Rogers as a closer. He is a great RP, but not a great closer. Hope he proves me wrong and dominates in his walk year 

[Utah Twins Fan]

Very good break down. As you said a lot of ?? , but a lot to be optimistic about as well

[mikelink45]

Another good review.  The biggest take away is that with ST short and lots of new arms there is still a lot of sorting to do and that can lead to a lot of mistakes.  Where is Winder in this discussion?  

[Mark G]

Last I heard on TV was the belief that we would carry 16 pitchers and 12 position players through the 1st of May while the rosters are expanded.  And knowing this management they will use all 16 at one time or another during the month.  On what planet does this organization have 16 major league pitchers?  15?  14?  Bottom line is we have too many minor leaguers trotting out there trying to get major league hitters out.  Sure, we will sort out who can and who can't eventually, but keeping minor leaguers solely to keep your major leaguers from having to throw too many pitches or pitch too many innings certainly gives me pause.  

Example:  The game Monday.  Boston lets there guy go 6 innings and 82 pitches.  We pull Ober after 4 innings and between 55 and 60 pitches.  Who is going to be the most ready come their first start?  When plan A is 4-5 innings and the pen does the rest, yea, I can see where you need to keep more arms, major league or not.  It is the not that scares me.  Let's hope for the best.  

[blindeke]

I agree with the point you make about free agency. Colomé is a great example of how experience does not mean they will perform well... Let's hope Wes Johnson and crew have better luck this season.

[PatPfund]

I feel pretty good about this group, though my biggest concerns have to do with some of the supposed 'front line.' As you said, Duffey started popping red flags last year, Thielbar was outstanding in 2020, but more of just okay last year (though he looked great in comparison to some of his 'pen mates), and Joe Smith had one of his worst years as a pro and is pretty old. I'm hoping the leashes are pretty short, because the second line looks better than some of the first.

[ToddlerHarmon]

Bullpen performance seems to have a heavy dose of psychology, with the best handling of a bullpen involving appropriate and understood roles and expectations.

Last year, an inappropriate role was given to Colome for too long. I'm not sure what the equivalent of that might be this year. Rogers has seldom taken the traditional closer role, and it looks like that is what he is being lined up for, so that's scary.

The inappropriate expectations were provided by our starters collapsing. That getting sorted had a great deal deal to do with the second half bullpen rebound. Again, there is plenty to fear here.

Buckle up.

[jmlease1]

I'm generally a fan of the Twins philosophy for building a bullpen, because a lot of multi-year commitments for relievers aren't worth the cash, and outside the truly elite guys, there are huge numbers of relievers that are pretty fungible from season to season. I truly believe in giving young starters who have essentially crapped out from the rotation a chance to move into the bullpen as a way to keep the pipeline flowing, and avoiding paying pitchers significant premiums to be "closers". (I'd rather have our best relievers as firemen who slam the door on a team's best hitters in the late innings rather than holding our best guys back to pitch the 9th)

Rogers has been excellent, and part of me is glad he got injured last season and didn't get traded at the deadline (though healthy he might have brought a fine return). He's as good a pitcher as anyone on the roster, and I'm very comfortable with him getting in any high-leverage spot. Duffey was still good last year even if he dipped from his spectacular performances of the previous couple of years; sign of things to come or does he revert back to form? YMMV, I guess. Thielbar has been excellent as a second lefty. Alcala is death to righties and has been improving against lefties. Duran is a beast; it'll be interesting if they class him with Jax and/or Winder to be a multi-inning reliever for the early part of the season or look to him to be more of a high-leverage back-end guy as the season goes on? Smith & Cotton look like quality veteran options, but will be easy to bump down or move on from if they fall apart. there are additional options in the minors in guys like Moran (whom I love with that changeup) or Minaya (who was good for the twins last season)

I think the coaching staff will feel a little less bound by roles early in the season this year (they seemed to have locked in Colome as a traditional closer last season) which may also help them sift through their relief corps faster. But I think there's enough talent here to be a quality bullpen.

[Doctor Gast]

Last year the BP started out slow from ST and Coloume' was absolutely terrible. Because of the prior 2020 shortened season I advocated for a strong long relief corp to help eat up innings and take the burden off the rotation and the failing short relief. They had only Dobnak as long relief (at the same time forcing him to rely on his experimental slider that proved disasterous both in production & injury) and used him primarily as mop up.

Instead of rethinking their position of relying intensively on the rotation for extensive innings and a failing BP led by Colume' (they should have removed him as closer) they doubled and tripled down on their strategy by trying to save face on new acquisitions (Colome', Happ and Shoemaker).

For many years the Twins have abandoned the use of long relief and they have suffered greatly because of it. If by chance they make it to the post season, the pitching has been totally sapped of their strength, thus contributing to the horrific 18 straight post season losses.

This year they talk about piggy-backing, in the beginning of the season I'd like to keep all the SPs to be pitched on limited innings until they are totally stretched out. To be successful with this new strategy we need a large rotating long relief corp, I recommend 6 pitchers. I'd include Smeltzer (that can be used as spot starter) and Alcala (that can be used as high leverage short relief). I have high hopes in this piggy-back system and the quality of our BP but again I stress for the Twins to put more importance on long relief, for this to really be successful.

[GeorgiaBaller]

Let's be honest---outside of Johann Santana, Brad Radke, maybe Eddie Gordado and  Jose Berrios, the Twins have not had talent they grew and developed.  In fact, very few memorable people to toe the rubber in the last 25 years.  There is a fundamental problem down through the organization about what to look for, how to cultivate field/game tenacity, and what pitches are bedrock to develop for success against major league hitters.  I'm not saying that all falls on Wes Johnson, there is a blindspot in the organization that has to be addressed---especially when you see some organizations like Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Houston, LA and San Francisco acquire and develop talent organically or improving the asset after trade.   

FA signings can only be a small piece of improving  a staff.  There very obviously needs to be a philosphy change organizationally---that has to do with scouting, coaching and drafting of arm talent and teaching them how to see and feel the game on the mound---not just to take signals from the bench.

 

Oh...and...DUMP SANO

[chpettit19]

56 minutes ago, GeorgiaBaller said:

Let's be honest---outside of Johann Santana, Brad Radke, maybe Eddie Gordado and  Jose Berrios, the Twins have not had talent they grew and developed.  In fact, very few memorable people to toe the rubber in the last 25 years.  There is a fundamental problem down through the organization about what to look for, how to cultivate field/game tenacity, and what pitches are bedrock to develop for success against major league hitters.  I'm not saying that all falls on Wes Johnson, there is a blindspot in the organization that has to be addressed---especially when you see some organizations like Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Houston, LA and San Francisco acquire and develop talent organically or improving the asset after trade.   

FA signings can only be a small piece of improving  a staff.  There very obviously needs to be a philosphy change organizationally---that has to do with scouting, coaching and drafting of arm talent and teaching them how to see and feel the game on the mound---not just to take signals from the bench.

 

Oh...and...DUMP SANO

The philosophy change has already taken place. The question now is whether or not they've been successful in implementing the change. The current FO set up new technology and coaching throughout the system to implement a new strategy for developing pitching. The arms are now arriving and we get to see how well they did implementing their plan. Ober was a good first sign, but the real test is if they've produced someone for the top of a rotation and then if they can develop multiple guys for the top of the rotation.

The change has been made and this year we start seeing if it's been well executed.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The Twins have not spent much on the bullpen in terms of free agency dollars, but Duran in the Pen seems like a significant investment. It took years of development to get him to this point, and that has a ton of value.

While Rogers and Duffy might have some potential challenges, they both looked relatively healthy this spring. I’m a lot more confident in the Pen than in the rotation!

[jimbo92107]

Secret to a good bull pen is a good starting rotation. If you have a bunch of 5-inning guys, your pen will wear out and starting coughing up a lot of runs. 

Meanwhile, assuming the starters are okay, I'd platoon Alcala, Duran and Rogers at closer. Rogers looked most comfortable as a setup man. That leaves the two big fastball guys to blow away the opposition in the ninth. Split the emotional load. 

[mikelink45]

By the way - Cueto was signed by the sox as a backup precaution.  Smart move - no guaranteed spot, just another arm in the system.

[The Mad King]

Nothing can be worse than Colome last year

[DocBauer]

In general, I believe in the building of a pen philosophy the current Twins have. I say "current" because if you recall/look back, you would see that the best Twins teams over the years employed a similar philosophy. They used re-treads and converted SP, not necessarily their own, and a few career BP guys to create quality pens. Even Nathan was a SS turned RP, who became a stud All Star caliber closer. Same with Eddie and Perk. But I do believe baseball has changed, and the pen has taken on a larger role in today's game. But I think the general philosophy the Twins employ is solid. 

If we want to be really real, pretty much everyone STUNK in 2021 for the first month. It was like a dark comedy. But Rogers settled down. Duffey settled down and was just as affective some adjustments despite some downturn in his peripherals. Thielbar's numbers were OK, but his performance was not. But he also turned it around. Alcala turned in a great last couple of months. If I wanted to be slapped around, I could remind everyone that Colome was actually pretty good once the initial chapter of his horror story was done. Hell, we could even talk about how well Coulombe and Minaya threw, and lucky to have them both back as non roster options.

I GET fear about Rogers or Duffey or Thielbar suddenly regressing. I GET Alcala suddenly regressing after his strong finish. I GET all the question marks. But those question marks will always be there year to year, even for some of the best pens. It's a strange and unique and volatile spot. I'm OK with the Smith signing as a carbon copy Clippard signing who could be invaluable. But I would have spent a couple $M more on a more proven late inning guy to help Rogers instead of banking on Alcala and Duran.

Speaking of, there is the real possibility Alcala WILL keep developing and embracing his role and make a huge difference. And Duran has even MORE stuff and potential. And if Duran can take all of his stuff and potential and turn out to be a LIGHTS OUT closer, I'm fine. But I still have hope that this will be a transition season, similar to Santana, where he gets experience and grows and slides back in to the rotation again.

I think the arms and depth are there for the Twins to make a really good pen for 2022.

[Danchat]

2 hours ago, jimbo92107 said:

Secret to a good bull pen is a good starting rotation. If you have a bunch of 5-inning guys, your pen will wear out and starting coughing up a lot of runs. 

Meanwhile, assuming the starters are okay, I'd platoon Alcala, Duran and Rogers at closer. Rogers looked most comfortable as a setup man. That leaves the two big fastball guys to blow away the opposition in the ninth. Split the emotional load. 

I do hope Alcala gets some save opportunities, but Baldelli does not have a history of giving the young relievers chances at saves... heck, it took until the final game of the year for Alcala to get his first and only shot. Duran will have to pitch really well to even warrant consideration.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

15 hours ago, jimbo92107 said:

Secret to a good bull pen is a good starting rotation. If you have a bunch of 5-inning guys, your pen will wear out and starting coughing up a lot of runs. 

Meanwhile, assuming the starters are okay, I'd platoon Alcala, Duran and Rogers at closer. Rogers looked most comfortable as a setup man. That leaves the two big fastball guys to blow away the opposition in the ninth. Split the emotional load. 

If this is accurate there wouldn’t be a good bullpen in the MLB because the average start is 5.1 innings and has been for several years.
 

I do agree that managing the workload will be critical for the Twins. Knowing when to pull the hook on a short start, having a long reliever ready, and still be in a position to win a game at least some of the time will be critical. When 4/5 of your rotation hasn’t exceeded 110 innings in a season for 4 years (or never) they are going to have to find a way to win games when they go to the bullpen in the 4th and 5th innings. It’ll happen a lot.

[Minny505]

On 4/5/2022 at 8:53 AM, GeorgiaBaller said:

Let's be honest---outside of Johann Santana, Brad Radke, maybe Eddie Gordado and  Jose Berrios, the Twins have not had talent they grew and developed.  In fact, very few memorable people to toe the rubber in the last 25 years.  There is a fundamental problem down through the organization about what to look for, how to cultivate field/game tenacity, and what pitches are bedrock to develop for success against major league hitters.  I'm not saying that all falls on Wes Johnson, there is a blindspot in the organization that has to be addressed---especially when you see some organizations like Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Houston, LA and San Francisco acquire and develop talent organically or improving the asset after trade.   

FA signings can only be a small piece of improving  a staff.  There very obviously needs to be a philosphy change organizationally---that has to do with scouting, coaching and drafting of arm talent and teaching them how to see and feel the game on the mound---not just to take signals from the bench.

 

Oh...and...DUMP SANO

Why dump Sano? He's one of the four best hitters on this team on a reasonable contract. 

Outside of 2020 (gets a pass like everyone else who struggled) and the first couple months of 2021, he's been absolutely fantastic. Even with the those rough stretches, he still has a roughly 120 wRC+ over the last three seasons. That is not a player any team dumps. That is a player you figure out how to get into the middle of the order.