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Minnesota’s Farm System May Be Tapped Out by 2023


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Entering the 2022 campaign, the Twins have plenty of talent on the cusp of the big-league level. Does that mean the farm system will be tapped out by 2023?

 

Not that long ago, evaluators considered Minnesota’s farm system among baseball’s best. It helped that the Twins were terrible for multiple seasons, and they were able to stockpile high draft picks to rebuild their system. Entering the 2022 season, many national rankings put the Twins farm system in the bottom half of the league. Many of the organization’s top prospects are on the brink of making their debuts, so what does that mean for the future of the farm system?

Prospects on the Brink
According to MLB Pipeline, the team’s top eight ranked prospects are all expected to debut in 2022. Minnesota’s pitching pipeline looks ready to start producing big-league talent. Joe Ryan was recently named the team’s Opening Day starter, even though he has only made five starts in his big-league career. Jhoan Duran looks like he can be a dominant bullpen option if the team decides to keep him in a relief role. Josh Winder also has an opportunity to be used out of the bullpen to start 2022. Besides these Opening Day options, Jordan Balazovic, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Drew Strotman all project to debut at some point in 2022. 

Minnesota’s top position player prospects also project to start the season at St. Paul. Jose Miranda dominated the Double- and Triple-A levels, so it seems like he has little left to prove in the minors. Austin Martin is widely considered the team’s top prospect, and he was an on-base machine at Double-A last season. Minnesota has worked with him on his power production and that should put him on a path toward a 2022 debut. Royce Lewis is returning from an injury, so he must prove he can produce like a top prospect. 

All eight of these prospects may use up their rookie eligibility during the 2022 season, and this has the potential to leave little on the shelves in the minor leagues. 

What Will Be Left?
Minnesota’s pitching depth means some of the team’s top pitching prospects are behind other pitchers in the organization's pecking order. An argument can be made that Matt Canterino is the best pitching prospect in the organization, but all the other names mentioned above are ahead of him on the depth chart. Ronny Henriquez and Louie Varland are both intriguing prospects, but they have multiple stops left to get to the big-league level. 

Blayne Enlow is returning from Tommy John surgery, so he will likely wait until 2023 to debut. Steve Hajjar is an intriguing name to watch because of his collegiate experience. Last year’s second-round pick may end up being a top-10 prospect in the organization entering the 2023 season. He’s certainly a player to watch this season. 

Two of the organization's top power prospects will likely still be in the system entering next season. Aaron Sabato and Matt Wallner fit the mold of a typical power hitter with little value on the defensive side of the ball. Noah Miller and Keoni Cavaco are two higher draft picks from this regime with something to prove. Other position players like Spencer Steer and Misael Urbina are also working their way towards Target Field. All of these players have upside, but they aren’t in the same category of prospect as Martin, Lewis, or Miranda. 

Ramifications
So, what does this all mean? Minnesota has a plethora of talent in the upper level of the minors, which is a great problem for any organization. However, is the team less likely to trade these players away because of their proximity to the majors? Teams with top-ranked farm systems can move their prospects for MLB talent to make their team even more competitive. This MLB-ready pipeline should allow the Twins to keep their winning window open, but the team’s future depth relies on a strong farm system that can churn out big-league talent. 

Minnesota projects to have plenty of young talent in the big leagues, but it will result in a dramatically depleted depth in the minors. Do you think the Twins will have one of baseball’s worst farm systems entering next season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.


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Interesting premise, but I’m not sure how much it’ll matter in a couple of years. As long as you have young, inexpensive, and controllable talent, you’re in a great spot. Whether the players are at AAA or in their 2nd season in the Bigs, they still have a fistful of controllable years and we can either play them or package them for even more, higher-end talent. 
 

Also, who knows who the next Jose Miranda is going to be. Last year, he wasn’t on many of our radars, yet we’re now talking about him like he’s of the same ilk as Martin and Lewis. 

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Options... the players you list have options.

Too my knowledge... Celestino is the only player that will run out of options and force a put on the 26 man roster or risk losing him scenario.   

However, there will be some 40 man roster decisions that need to be made this off-season with Centerino, Richardson, Varland and Wallner (I'm sure I'm missing others) that could produce some spillage, 

It's the hopeful continued progression of Centerino, Richardson and Varland being players that we don't wan't to lose via R5 that could produce spillage.

That is the main reason why Bundy and Archer gobbling up innings instead of Winder and Balazovic can cause a chain reaction bottleneck... IF EVERYTHING GOES AS PLANNED.   

We really have to start getting some major league miles on the mound out of our 40 man candidates this year. 

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It just depends on who develops and how quickly. If Cavaco, Rodriquez, Miller and other young guys have elite years then things change.  Also if all those guys that move to the MLB club are solid players then trades could be used to recoup talent for the farm. If our pitching pipeline pans out then they will be able to trade from a surplus of pitching to get what they want/need.  If they continue to draft well then they could add more talent that way as well.

If the guys graduationg dont pan out and no one steps up in the minors then sure things look dire.  I don't think the Twins will likley have a top 10 farm in the near future but Cleveland always seemed to have a low rated farm and they did well for years just by kicking out under-rated pitchers.  The Twins seem to be good at finding pitching in the lower rounds of the draft if they continue to do that I think they will be fine as well.

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Honestly, this doesn't make much sense to me. If the wave of prospects we have moving along right now all graduate to the MLB club this season, then it's cause for celebration and we're not going to worry about whether we have a dip in minor league depth. If several of them aren't ready in 2022, then they're at the top of the list for 2023, along with the A & AA-ball guys that should be advancing.

It's not like we're going to give up on Josh Winder if he struggles in his first year in MLB and ends up spending a good chunk of the year at AAA. From a prospect perspective, we're in solid shape where we have a significant wave of prospects arriving around the same time; the risk to our system is if too many of these guys bust all at once. but 2023 isn't where the "problem" is: it's 2024, and only if 80% of these guys flame out on us.

If only 1 of Winder, Balazovic, Canterino, Woods-Richardson, Sands, Strotman, and Enlow makes it as an MLB starter in the next two seasons, we're in trouble. If three of these guys graduate from prospect to rotation (along with Ryan & Ober), then...we're insulated.

If Martin, Lewis, Miranda, Steer and Wallner all fall down while neither Kirilloff or Larnach seize jobs...then yeah, we're in trouble. (since Miller, Cavaco, Soularie, and Urbina all look a little farther off)

but this is the way it always is for small to mid-market teams: if guys don't develop and graduate into being quality starters and you don't develop any all-stars internally...then yeah, you're in trouble. but I'm not worried about whether guys use up their rookie eligibility, I'm worried about whether or not they're quality players. If they do, then it's easy enough to supplement your roster with a free agent or two to fill in holes where you don't have prospects (catcher and SS being the hardest).

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I'm with @jmlease1. If this wave of prospects produces 5 starting pitchers out of Ober, Ryan, Canterino, Winder, SWR, Balazavic, Sands, Strotman, Enlow, Dobnak, Duran, Henriquez, Jax, and Vallimont they are in amazing position. They'd have all of those guys on league minimum type deals for 3 years plus arb for 3 more. That gives you 6 years to replenish the system. I'm not predicting they're going to get 5 good starters out of that group so nobody tell me all the problems with each guy and how they're doomed. Just saying that's the wave approaching the majors at the same time and if you produce 5 homegrown arms from 1 wave you're the envy of the league and you have years of cushion before you need to worry about the next wave arriving. If you get 3 out of that you're still in great shape. If you end up with 1 you're pretty well screwed.

If Jeffers, Miranda, Kirilloff, Martin, and Lewis take the C, 3B, 1B, LF, and SS spots for the next 5/6 years to go along with Buxton in center and Polanco at 2B (for most of that time) you have a ton of time to replenish the position player prospect pool. If you end up with just Kirilloff, Buxton, and Polanco you're in a far tougher spot. The Twins have done well timing a wave all at roughly the same time. That's the goal with every major league team. Produce the core of your team through your system and have them all arrive at the same time. That gives you a cheap core and you can plug the holes with veteran MLB players. The question isn't at all whether or not the system will be depleted from 2023-2028 it's whether the major league team will be. If the major league team flops because they developed no core players they're doomed. If the major league team is good because they developed their own core players the system doesn't matter for a handful more years.

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There is no reason to be concerned about this. Jose Miranda a year ago was left unprotected for the Rule 5 draft and was looking like a utility player at best. Prospects develop every year. There are quite a few names mentioned in the article and in the comments section that have the potential to be top 100 prospects. 

There is a draft every single year. It helps to be drafting higher in the first round, but plenty of our top prospects were drafted in rounds 2-7. The Twins have actually been terrible on hitting on their first round picks.

Teams also sign international prospects every year. Every single year teams have the opportunity to improve/restock their farm system.

 

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Many of the young players from the Dominican Republic not mentioned looked like the real deal in spring training. Watching some of the Low A and high A spring training showed more than a few players that have big league potential written all over them.  It's amaizing watching some of these kids stand and play head and shoulders over there counterparts. Quite a few kids not mentioned in our top prospect ratings will be household names for Twins fans in the next year or 2.  

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Two things to begin with:

1] Milb systems and rankings are ALWAYS fuid from year to year with promotions. 

2] Milb talent can improve or regress from year to year, which comes back to development, not just draft position. 

I am so tired of saying this but 2020 affected so many things, for EVERYONE, not just the Twins. I can't wait for a full milb season to take place so prospects can have a full, hopefully healthy, season to just be who they might be. I mean, 2020 affects even 2018 draftees because they barely played, then had a full year, then lost a full year, then are still catching up. I believe there is a tremendous amount of fluidity in the minors for ALL teams that will begin to even out in 20202. Which comes back to scouting and development, the way it's supposed to be.

Just had to get that off my chest.

Getting back to the OP, Winder and Duran are not guaranteed of anything, but they have opportunity. IF the Twins handle this right, both could/should make a mark in the pen and potentially the rotation over the course of a full season. No question Winder is a future SP, SOME question where Duran fits. Duran could just be a STUD RP, but the window remains open for making a Santana type move in the future. No question he is a lightening rod arm to see what happens. As far as Winder, just don't do a "Dobnak" and bounce him too much to confuse him and ruin his potential.

Miranda and Celestino are going to be fine, same as Larnach, and they will all be up and find themselves as part of the Twins future soon. They're just going to "cook" a little longer at St Paul, and that's fine.

Do we really believe Lewis and Martin are going to debut in 2022 and remove rookie status, as the OP suggests? I think Lewis at AAA, with Palacios, and Martin at AA is perfect. Does everyone forget Martin went from college to nothing to AA? How about he gets a little time to hit without a bum wrist and work on his power game and still play some infield before, probably, moving to the OF full time. And he's probably going to finish 2022 at AAA I'm sure.

But I'm not certain Lewis and Martin finish in the ML and "lose" rookie status. But let's say they do.

Next, we assume how many pitching prospects debut and go beyond "rookie" status. Winder and Duran will hopefully do that in various ways and usage for 2022 and getting ready for 2023. I still believe Strotman will see time in various roles, potentially. But to just guess/bet Balazovic and SWR and Sands will surpass rookie status is blind faith that the Twins will just stink, and need to premier young talent, or there wil at least be opportunity in the pen to help the team to make a push.

But for 2023 and beyond, prospect wise?

3yrs ago nobody knew who Balazovic was. 2yrs ago nobody knew who Winder was. A year ago, nobody knew who Varland was. Henriquez, Canterino, Gross, SWR, Gipson-Long, Povich, Hajjar, and others I'm not even mentioning could be top pitching prospects for 2023.

Sabato, Encanacion-Strand and Julian and Steer, Julian, Holland, Mack, Miller, others I'm forgetting. 

Wallner, Urbina, Rodriguez, Gary Jr., Rosario,  OF options.

I know full well I'm leaving out and missing other pospect options.

But to believe the Twins are on a precipice of adding great talent to the roster very soon and leaving the system barren is not right, IMO.

 

 

 

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9 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Options... the players you list have options.

Too my knowledge... Celestino is the only player that will run out of options and force a put on the 26 man roster or risk losing him scenario.   

However, there will be some 40 man roster decisions that need to be made this off-season with Centerino, Richardson, Varland and Wallner (I'm sure I'm missing others) that could produce some spillage, 

It's the hopeful continued progression of Centerino, Richardson and Varland being players that we don't wan't to lose via R5 that could produce spillage.

That is the main reason why Bundy and Archer gobbling up innings instead of Winder and Balazovic can cause a chain reaction bottleneck... IF EVERYTHING GOES AS PLANNED.   

We really have to start getting some major league miles on the mound out of our 40 man candidates this year. 

There are 3 prospects I like in the Twins system that might be under the radar but I'm really intrigued how they will do this year.

Cade Povich - Pitcher with nice mix
Edouard Julien - Super good eye at plate. Really good on base .pct. Will play 2nd base at 2A to start season. 
Christian Encarnacion - Strand - Lots of pop in the bat. Comparable might be Jose Miranda. 

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No way. The guys they drafted last alone will be prime players in 4-5 years of minor league service time. By then, you are starting to think about trading the Ryan Ober Lewis guys because they might be overpriced.

 

The problem the Twins MAY face is 40-man roster issues. They kinda have that right now, too many NOT READY FOR PRIME TIME guys, and those that need a shot aren't fulltimers yet because of lack of innings, or because the Twins keep filling the upper levels with minor league castoffs.

 

Wichita has a great team. Cedar Rapids is full of promising players. There's a lot that will be getting reps at Ft. Myers, or still young in the FCL playland.

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8 hours ago, Rosterman said:

The problem the Twins MAY face is 40-man roster issues. They kinda have that right now, too many NOT READY FOR PRIME TIME guys, and those that need a shot aren't fulltimers yet because of lack of innings, or because the Twins keep filling the upper levels with minor league castoffs.

 

 

If they don't manage this skillfully. There will be spillage off the 40 man. 

Lots of people don't worry about this type of spillage but I do.

In the past 3 years, our farm system spillage has produced for other teams... nearly as much as our farm system has produced for us. 

 

 

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I'm not worried about there minor league talent. Only 4 to 6 players will be brought up next year. They are due to pick very high in the next draft. And they already are looking at three very good international players in that draft. The only way they loose some players is thru trades for good veteran players. I settle for that.

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I am optimistic about the farm system for next year.  First of all, the Twins select 8th in the draft, so that player will likely rank in the top 5 for next year, and their second pick would also be a top 10-15 player as well.  In addition, at the lower levels there are a lot of players with great potential--like Povich, Cavaco, Urbina, and especially Raya and Rodriguez who could have breakout years.  Throw in Enlow who is back for TJ and I think they system will be fine, regardless of where the experts place it.

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1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

If they don't manage this skillfully. There will be spillage off the 40 man. 

Lots of people don't worry about this type of spillage but I do.

In the past 3 years, our farm system spillage has produced for other teams... nearly as much as our farm system has produced for us. 

 

 

I agree but there are quite a few guys coming off next year.    Dylan Bundy and Gary Sanchez are gone.  If they pick up Archer's option that mean's he worked out very well.  Carlos Correa is almost certainly gone.  If Sanó stays it means he was a beast this year.  I would think this year is Brent Rooker's last unless he steps up.  One of Luis Arraez / Gio Urshela should be traded and Kenta Maeda is also a trade candidate.  I bet 7 of those 9 are gone.  Then, we also have Rodgers / Duffy and Smith as free agents.   Obviously, they will need to replace these RPs but hopefully a couple internal candidates step up which would ease the 40 man burden.

I would love to see Miranda take solid hold of 3B by July 1 which is why I say Arraez or Urshela or even both could be traded.  That would be ideal. Gordon and Martin should be the bench players.  Hopefully Celestino and Larnach grow into a role this year as well.  Of course, all of these guys are already on the 40 man.   We all know how huge it would be if two of Winder / Balazovic / Sands / Duran fill the Archer / Bundy roles.  With a little luck we will be in decent shape where the 40 man is concerned.  If all of this came together could we keep Correa?  I doubt it but we can hope.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

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5 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I agree but there are quite a few guys coming off next year.    Dylan Bundy and Gary Sanchez are gone.  If they pick up Archer's option that mean's he worked out very well.  Carlos Correa is almost certainly gone.  If Sanó stays it means he was a beast this year.  I would think this year is Brent Rooker's last unless he steps up.  One of Luis Arraez / Gio Urshela should be traded and Kenta Maeda is also a trade candidate.  I bet 7 of those 9 are gone.  Then, we also have Rodgers / Duffy and Smith as free agents.   Obviously, they will need to replace these RPs but hopefully a couple internal candidates step up which would ease the 40 man burden.

I would love to see Miranda take solid hold of 3B by July 1 which is why I say Arraez or Urshela or even both could be traded.  That would be ideal. Gordon and Martin should be the bench players.  Hopefully Celestino and Larnach grow into a role this year as well.  Of course, all of these guys are already on the 40 man.   We all know how huge it would be if two of Winder / Balazovic / Sands / Duran fill the Archer / Bundy roles.  With a little luck we will be in decent shape where the 40 man is concerned.  If all of this came together could we keep Correa?  I doubt it but we can hope.

 

I agree... if they skillfully manage things, having a 40 man full of solid choices is a good problem to have. Trading excess value gets more value in return and the system can hum along.  

My concern with the spillage is going to be the current crowding of the SP gate. We can only commit X amount of spots to the SP position on the 40 man and we are SP plump full now with guys who need to build up yearly inning totals and at least 3 more quality young arms that need to be added to the 40 man next year.  

If we don't graduate some of these arms into the rotation this year for next year it will cause spillage: Trading of players who haven't developed full value yet. Trying to get players through waivers, risking R5 exposure.    

If Bundy and Archer types stay healthy this year, eat innings and perform average to below average, it will limit how many of the young arms get a look see for Ober type MLB qualities or better.  

Without the look-see for Ober type abilities(or better)... it will be hard to trust fall with a young arm cold next off-season just to relieve the 40 man crowding. which keeps SP over stocked on the 40 and under stocked on the 26 which leads to more Bundy type 1 year deals just to be on the safe side and the cycle repeats itself. The can gets kicked down the road.   

I wish I could say that my scenario could never happen but... I've been watching this scenario play out for a few years now. 

There is large crowd of people waiting to get into the nightclub... if the bouncer doesn't open the door... someone is going to get hurt. 

 

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3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I agree... if they skillfully manage things, having a 40 man full of solid choices is a good problem to have. Trading excess value gets more value in return and the system can hum along.  

My concern with the spillage is going to be the current crowding of the SP gate. We can only commit X amount of spots to the SP position on the 40 man and we are SP plump full now with guys who need to build up yearly inning totals and at least 3 more quality young arms that need to be added to the 40 man next year.  

If we don't graduate some of these arms into the rotation this year for next year it will cause spillage: Trading of players who haven't developed full value yet. Trying to get players through waivers, risking R5 exposure.    

If Bundy and Archer types stay healthy this year, eat innings and perform average to below average, it will limit how many of the young arms get a look see for Ober type MLB qualities or better.  

Without the look-see for Ober type abilities(or better)... it will be hard to trust fall with a young arm cold next off-season just to relieve the 40 man crowding. which keeps SP over stocked on the 40 and under stocked on the 26 which leads to more Bundy type 1 year deals just to be on the safe side and the cycle repeats itself. The can gets kicked down the road.   

I wish I could say that my scenario could never happen but... I've been watching this scenario play out for a few years now. 

There is large crowd of people waiting to get into the nightclub... if the bouncer doesn't open the door... someone is going to get hurt. 

 

I was thinking the same thing which is why I would have been ok with the 5th spot being used to stack prospects.  My guess is they were excited to see Archer's velo back so they signed him.  Here is my hope.  If Bundy or Archer suck, cut them.  What are the odds of both being good?  Point being cutting one or trading one of them by mid-year would create opportunity for the prospects.  If we are so fortunate as to have them both rebound, and our other starters remain healthy, trade Bundy or Archer.

Obviously, an injury does the same thing so I am hopeful they have ample opportunity to test those young arms.  I would love to see Duran stick in the pen and graduate to the rotation next year or even later this year.  he still has the highest ceiling of our pitching prospects, IMO.

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19 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I was thinking the same thing which is why I would have been ok with the 5th spot being used to stack prospects.  My guess is they were excited to see Archer's velo back so they signed him.  Here is my hope.  If Bundy or Archer suck, cut them.  What are the odds of both being good?  Point being cutting one or trading one of them by mid-year would create opportunity for the prospects.  If we are so fortunate as to have them both rebound, and our other starters remain healthy, trade Bundy or Archer.

Obviously, an injury does the same thing so I am hopeful they have ample opportunity to test those young arms.  I would love to see Duran stick in the pen and graduate to the rotation next year or even later this year.  he still has the highest ceiling of our pitching prospects, IMO.

dog comedy GIF by CBC

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On 4/4/2022 at 11:16 PM, DocBauer said:

Two things to begin with:

1] Milb systems and rankings are ALWAYS fuid from year to year with promotions. 

2] Milb talent can improve or regress from year to year, which comes back to development, not just draft position. 

I am so tired of saying this but 2020 affected so many things, for EVERYONE, not just the Twins. I can't wait for a full milb season to take place so prospects can have a full, hopefully healthy, season to just be who they might be. I mean, 2020 affects even 2018 draftees because they barely played, then had a full year, then lost a full year, then are still catching up. I believe there is a tremendous amount of fluidity in the minors for ALL teams that will begin to even out in 20202. Which comes back to scouting and development, the way it's supposed to be.

Just had to get that off my chest.

Getting back to the OP, Winder and Duran are not guaranteed of anything, but they have opportunity. IF the Twins handle this right, both could/should make a mark in the pen and potentially the rotation over the course of a full season. No question Winder is a future SP, SOME question where Duran fits. Duran could just be a STUD RP, but the window remains open for making a Santana type move in the future. No question he is a lightening rod arm to see what happens. As far as Winder, just don't do a "Dobnak" and bounce him too much to confuse him and ruin his potential.

Miranda and Celestino are going to be fine, same as Larnach, and they will all be up and find themselves as part of the Twins future soon. They're just going to "cook" a little longer at St Paul, and that's fine.

Do we really believe Lewis and Martin are going to debut in 2022 and remove rookie status, as the OP suggests? I think Lewis at AAA, with Palacios, and Martin at AA is perfect. Does everyone forget Martin went from college to nothing to AA? How about he gets a little time to hit without a bum wrist and work on his power game and still play some infield before, probably, moving to the OF full time. And he's probably going to finish 2022 at AAA I'm sure.

But I'm not certain Lewis and Martin finish in the ML and "lose" rookie status. But let's say they do.

Next, we assume how many pitching prospects debut and go beyond "rookie" status. Winder and Duran will hopefully do that in various ways and usage for 2022 and getting ready for 2023. I still believe Strotman will see time in various roles, potentially. But to just guess/bet Balazovic and SWR and Sands will surpass rookie status is blind faith that the Twins will just stink, and need to premier young talent, or there wil at least be opportunity in the pen to help the team to make a push.

But for 2023 and beyond, prospect wise?

3yrs ago nobody knew who Balazovic was. 2yrs ago nobody knew who Winder was. A year ago, nobody knew who Varland was. Henriquez, Canterino, Gross, SWR, Gipson-Long, Povich, Hajjar, and others I'm not even mentioning could be top pitching prospects for 2023.

Sabato, Encanacion-Strand and Julian and Steer, Julian, Holland, Mack, Miller, others I'm forgetting. 

Wallner, Urbina, Rodriguez, Gary Jr., Rosario,  OF options.

I know full well I'm leaving out and missing other pospect options.

But to believe the Twins are on a precipice of adding great talent to the roster very soon and leaving the system barren is not right, IMO.

 

 

 

Agree with all the above.  Great points!

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Seth just posted the Ft. Myers Mighty Mussels roster and a lot of over 20 guys on that roster who should advance fast thru the system...if there is room for them at the major league level. 

 

Without Elizabethton, players are forced to stay in the Instyructional League (and there are close to 50 players at the complex) to play in-house games. But ALL the guys at Ft. Myers should be knocking on Cedar Rapids doors this season, and ALL should make the jump next season if they don't bomb out.

 

 

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My concern would be the lack of difference makers. Don’t look now but Falvine has a pretty poor track record with their top picks. I know it’s still too early to make a final judgment but it ain’t looking good right now. 

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