Twins 2022 Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins entered the offseason with an aggressive need for high-end pitching – one which they basically half-addressed with their trades and signings.

For better or worse, the front office will lean hard this season on an internal pipeline it's spent half a decade developing. 

Projected Rotation: Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer

Depth: Josh Winder, Chi-Chi Gonzalez, Cole Sands, Devin Smeltzer, Randy Dobnak

Prospects: Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino, Simeon Woods Richardson, Louie Varland, Blayne Enlow

THE GOOD

There's a lot of talent in this pipeline. It started coming to fruition a year ago, when Bailey Ober emerged as the team's steadiest starter and Joe Ryan arrived late with an eye-opening first impression.

The Twins will be looking for more of where that came from this year, with a bevy of their top prospects in the high minors and at an age (23-25) where players tend to enter the big-league ranks. Whether or not it was their plan from the start to rely heavily on this group, it clearly is now after the club mostly whiffed on impact rotation additions during the offseason.

One notable exception is Sonny Gray, who was acquired from Cincinnati in exchange for Chase Petty and instantly becomes the team's most accomplished starter. Gray gives the Twins some serious juice and cred at the top of the rotation. The 32-year-old owns a career 3.61 ERA and is a two-time All-Star – most recently in 2019 when he posted a 2.87 ERA and was worth 4.5 fWAR for the Reds. 

Gray was a successful starter in his early seasons with Oakland, but reinvented himself as a strikeout pitcher in Cincy, posting the three highest K-rates of his career while raising his swinging strike rates from the mid-20% range to low-30%. He was lights-out in his official spring debut on Sunday.

Despite his track record and rep, Gray won't be the club's Opening Day starter come Thursday at Target Field. Instead that honor goes to Ryan, who is still technically a rookie after making five starts in 2021. Per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com, he becomes just the third player since 1961 – and first in 35 years – to draw an Opening Day nod within the first six starts of his career.

This decision probably has much more to do with Gray's readiness than anything else, but Ryan's done enough to earn it on his end. He's been spectacular everywhere in the minors, with a 2.67 ERA and 13.0 K/9 in three seasons. He looked great for the Twins late last year, flirting with a no-hitter in his second MLB start. He's been excellent this spring, allowing no runs on three hits over five innings with a 5-to-1 K/BB ratio.

Following Ryan and Gray in the rotation, presumably, will be Ober. The big right-hander established himself and solidified his roster spot with an outstanding rookie performance. The question, of course, is whether he can back it up, but on the surface there is little reason to think Ober can't sustain as a solid mid-rotation starter. 

At the back end, the Twins are hoping to catch lightning with a pair of buy-low veteran free agents. Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer are interesting in that both were once heralded young arms and have earned top-10 Cy Young finishes at various points. But both are pretty far removed from sustained success.

Realistically, the Twins are hoping that Bundy rebounds to his pre-2021 baseline, which was roughly an average pitcher (98 ERA+) who was reliable from a durability standpoint, while Archer – who hasn't posted an above-average ERA since 2017 – finds some semblance of his previous form. 

Neither is a total longshot. Either of these guys could turn into assets. But really their function is to handle early innings while prospects in the minors get up to speed and make their cases. Josh Winder, Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino, and Cole Sands are all among the high-upside pitchers with a very real chance of making an impact for the Twins this season. It's an exciting time.

THE BAD

I read the words now and they haunt me. Like corrosive acid, they eat away at my very soul.

"If the Twins have ever fielded a better and deeper rotation than the one they're set to line up this year, I can't remember it," I wrote when introducing last year's starting pitching analysis. "From top to bottom (and beyond) this unit looks stacked."

If I meant it in terms of a Jenga stack ready to topple, I would've been on the right track. But I didn't.  

After breaking through as one of the best in the league in 2019 and 2020, the pitching staff totally fell apart last year, and the rotation was a prime culprit. Twins starters ranked 25th in fWAR and ERA, and 24th in FIP and WHIP. One of their rotation mainstays, Kenta Maeda, struggled before requiring Tommy John surgery (he MIGHT make it back late this year) and the other was traded away at the deadline. 

Losing José Berríos hurts. A whole lot. While perhaps not living up to the lofty title of "ace," he was a clear front-line starter – one of the league's most consistent and durable pitchers. He basically never missed a start with the Twins and combined quantity with quality. La MaKina, who would've been under contract with Minnesota this year, was the real deal and he will be greatly missed. 

Berríos was the Twins' Opening Day starter in 2019 and 2020. Maeda took that honor last year, earning it with a Cy Young runner-up performance in '20. Now both are out of the picture, and the shift to Ryan as Opening Day starter epitomizes the front office's strategy with the rotation: shifting from proven high-caliber veterans to risky unproven minor-leaguers who aren't all that highly regarded outside of the Twins braintrust. 

I'm not saying it can't work. But there's a good chance it won't, and if so, this will not reflect well at all on a front office that seemingly straddled the line of reloading and rebuilding, trading their 2021 first-rounder for Gray and throwing $35 million at Carlos Correa. What's the point of all this if your rotation won't give you a chance?

The optimistic side of me can buy into the idea of a rotation the features Ryan, Gray, Ober, Bundy and Archer offering enough to support a strong lineup en route to a playoff berth. But as alluded before, it's the depth behind them that frightens me. Aaron Gleeman mentioned on a recent episode of Gleeman and the Geek that Twins teams have needed an average of 17 different starters per season.  

With so few stable assets in place, the Twins are going to be heavily reliant on their existing talent for reinforcements beyond a thin and questionable front line. It's a bold and high-stakes vote of self-confidence.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Last year, it seemed like the Twins had starting pitching depth. They didn't. This year, it seems like the Twins don't have starting pitching depth. Maybe they do. Really, it comes down to largely to health, which is in many ways uncontrollable and luck-driven. 

The front office has left itself little margin for error on this front by investing in reclamation projects and handing the team's destiny to a stable of unproven commodities. 

Injuries and ill-fated signings ravaged the club's depth in 2021 and left the Twins scrambling for answers. It was understandable as a one-year blip. Another season of dreadful pitching performance will not be nearly as tolerable, and would leave Derek Falvey and Thad Levine open to all the criticism they'll receive. 

Their defiantly minimalist approach to the offseason pitching market will only be excusable if their methodically developed pitching pipeline pays off, and fast.

Catch Up on the Rest of Our 2022 Previews:

• Position Analysis: Catcher
• Position Analysis: First Base
• Position Analysis: Second Base
• Position Analysis: Third Base
• Position Analysis: Shortstop
• Position Analysis: Left Field
• Position Analysis: Center Field
• Position Analysis: Right Field
• Position Analysis: Designated Hitter

 

View full article

[mikelink45]

I would like some consistency.  Either buy quality SP to build the rotation you want or don't bother with retreads and go all in on the pipeline.  If Bundy and/or Archer are mediocre will the team step away quickly and put the young arms in or will we see the Happ/Shoemaker/Bailey...slog through half a season or more?  

Nick your analyses have really been right on and I love the honest approach.  

[mike8791]

Well said, Nick!  Their is no plausible explanation for the FO's indecision, except ineptitude.  Why get Correa and Gray without further bolstering the rotation, not to mention the pen?  I won't rehash all the FA pitchers they took a pass at, any one of whom,e.g., Stroman, Rodriguez, Rodon, et. al.) could have bolstered the top of the rotation.  

Falvine in 5+ years has not even been able to develop one reliever, no less a starter.  Alcala hasn't been consistent.  Maybe Duran will break the drought?  But so far the pitching whisperers have failed badly.  As you say, it should be this year or bust.  Hoping for the best is not a strategy for winning a playoff game!

[beckmt]

I am a little more optimistic.  We have to know what is in the pipeline or we will be losing pitchers, some who might turn out to be quite good.  Twins pitching did very well in Wichita last year and hopefully will do well in Minneapolis and St. Paul this year.  

We will have to fly with what we have, and it could well be better than people believe.  I just hope if the retreads go south early they are quickly cut (I have more rope for Archer than Bundy) and the pipeline is tested.  Twins bullpen could be very good if Alcala and Duran both come through early.  We have more velocity there than the Twins have ever had.  

Just hope the starting pitching can get us 5 - 6 innings and that maybe Maeda comes back in August and gives us a boost. 

[HrbieFan]

If Bundy and Archer can rebound, stay healthy and give quality innings, this rotation is solid for the regular season. It is not a post season rotation though. Need one of the young guys to take a step up and be the next Joe Ryan. Sounds like Winder and Duran will open with the big club in the pen, hope they get enough innings to stay stretched out.  Hate 5 and fly pitchers, but we will see way too much of it this year 

[Whitey333]

Great article as usual Nick!  My position has been yes you need to see how the pipeline pitchers can do.  However not all at once. Gray was a great move but we need one or two more like that to be realistic contenders.  At this point it is baffling to have spent $35 mil on a great shortstop but not back it up with solid, reliable starting pitching.  What's the point?  It's the same philosophy of signing reclamation projects and hoping something works. We saw how it worked last year.  Twins were very near the bottom in all of MLB in most meaningful pitching stats.  I hope this works out but it is likely not.  In that case we will be out of contention by early May like last year.

[beckmt]

26 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Great article as usual Nick!  My position has been yes you need to see how the pipeline pitchers can do.  However not all at once. Gray was a great move but we need one or two more like that to be realistic contenders.  At this point it is baffling to have spent $35 mil on a great shortstop but not back it up with solid, reliable starting pitching.  What's the point?  It's the same philosophy of signing reclamation projects and hoping something works. We saw how it worked last year.  Twins were very near the bottom in all of MLB in most meaningful pitching stats.  I hope this works out but it is likely not.  In that case we will be out of contention by early May like last year.

Problem is with most FA signings, the great majority do not work out, unless you are signing from the top of the pile.  And those contracts turn bad usually the last few years.  To keep the Twins relevant and keep the club running well, you need the cheap pitching from the prospects.  Cleveland  has gotten it for years, and the Twins look like they are going that way.  It is dangerous, but when you don't have unlimited money, you have to cut somewhere. 

[Dman]

Very nice write-up.  Pretty much my feelings exactly.  I guess I am a bit more bullish on the young arms than most but maybe that is because of the success of Ryan and Ober.  I think Winder has the "stuff" to make it as well.  So that is three guys that look like they could be long term solutions.  I get that all three might not be viable in the end at all but all three have had fairly elite success in the Minors.  Have to think that counts for something in translating their ability to make it.

FWIW the OP left out Henriquez who has three plus pitches and the only glaring weakness at the moment is the Long ball.  Granted that can be a fatal flaw for any pitcher, but if they can identify what pitch and location he is giving up that kind of contact, then maybe they can help him suppress those and he could be another rotation arm this year.

While Balazovich didn't have an elite year last year it was still a good year and he has been in the top 100. Canterino also has elite stuff and if he can stay healthy is likely a rotation arm for sure. SWR, and Varland could take steps to be options as well so even if just two of those options make it then the Twins would appear to be in good shape for the future.  That doesn't even include guys that are on the fringe of starter\reliever in Sands. Strotman, Vallimont, Mooney, Legumina, Schulfer etc.  

Agree with the OP that translating arms from AAA to the majors is probably the biggest step in all of baseball and lot's of arms don't live up to the hype but this is without a doubt the largest group of quality arms this team has ever assembled some of them have to work out.

I hope the pipeline produces or it is going to be another long season with a bleak future to top it off.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, HrbieFan said:

If Bundy and Archer can rebound, stay healthy and give quality innings, this rotation is solid for the regular season. It is not a post season rotation though. Need one of the young guys to take a step up and be the next Joe Ryan. Sounds like Winder and Duran will open with the big club in the pen, hope they get enough innings to stay stretched out.  Hate 5 and fly pitchers, but we will see way too much of it this year 

Kind of sounds a little like last year.

If Happ and Shoemaker can rebound, stay healthy and give quality innings, this rotation is solid for the regular season. It is not a post season rotation though. Need one of the young guys to take a step up and be the next Randy Dobnak. Sounds like Ober is close and Alcala will open with the big club in the pen, hope they get enough innings to stay stretched out.  Hate 5 and fly pitchers, but we will see way too much of it this year 

 

I hope it goes better than last year, but last years top 3 felt better than this years. (Berrios, Maeda and Pineda)

 

[terrydactyls]

Balazovic, Winder, Canterino, Enlow, Strotman, Sands, Gonzales, Rodriguez, Woods-Richardson, Hernandez.  That's ten pitchers in the high minors looking to win a spot in the Twins rotation.  If just two accomplish that goal this year, then the rotation looks damn good for several years.  And there is even a chance that Maeda may return.  As David Carradine used to say - "Patience, Grasshopper".

[strumdatjag]

Kenta Maeda has started light throwing.  There is a chance that he will be available for September and the playoffs.    
And No - I’m not saying the Twins will make the playoffs - But Hope Springs Eternal. 

[TwinsAce]

42 minutes ago, beckmt said:

Problem is with most FA signings, the great majority do not work out, unless you are signing from the top of the pile.  And those contracts turn bad usually the last few years.  To keep the Twins relevant and keep the club running well, you need the cheap pitching from the prospects.  Cleveland  has gotten it for years, and the Twins look like they are going that way.  It is dangerous, but when you don't have unlimited money, you have to cut somewhere. 

Yes - this.  And what Terrydactyls just said too.  Imagine if a few of those 10 pitchers (or more) win a spot in the Twins rotation sooner than later.  And maybe 1-2 (including Duran) end up in the bullpen.  That is a lot of cheap pitching and with options and mid-season flexibility.
Cleveland gets a lot of grief for not spending money.  The Twins though have been willing to spend money on position players and surprised us with the Carlos signing and Buxton's extension.  We have a core also that is more talented than the Cleveland position player group.   If the Twins pitching can even be top 15 as a young bunch (not even top 5-10 like Cleveland), watch out.  That should be a recipe for success.  Add in senior pitching options like Maeda or Gray...I like it.

Warning - don't expect every prospect to light it up like Ober and Ryan.  Some will take their lumps too.

[Karbo]

I have high hopes for this season, but not really for this particular rotation. I worry the most about Bundy. With that said, I also agree that we need to start getting to some of the pitching pipeline this FO has developed. Covid set us back, and last year it seems that most had arm troubles or were hurt some other way. Its time to s#%t or get off the pot with some of these guys. This is the year we should find out a lot more about them. At least some of them.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Thanks Nick for a good article. My mama said that the Twins starting pitchers for 2022 are like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're gonna get. 

[Mike Sixel]

This is the year their beliefs in not signing top FA pitchers and their ability to develop them has to pay off. Or I'd fire them. They've had long enough to draft and develop pitching..... And we're still waiting. 

[jmlease1]

I do think we have to develop our pitching pipeline internally to have long-term success. And I feel much more strongly about the guys that are lined up to go this year than last year from that young crop of pitchers. Last year, we were hoping that Dobnak was for real, Thorpe could put it together, Smeltzer was ready as being some of the top depth guys along with Duran (who was the only guy who really looked like he had the big upside).

I feel more strongly about Winder, Canterino, Balazovic, & Woods-Richardson than I did about Dobnak, Thorpe, and Smeltzer.

We will see. If this whole next wave of pitchers flame out, then everyone is probably going to get fired, if not this year than next. If 2-3 of this next group of 8-10 (and I'm counting Ober & Ryan as "graduated") become rotation fixtures before the end of 2023...then the team is probably in good shape.

[PatPfund]

Good piece covering the biggest ??? position on the team (though pretty big 'Q's still remain at corner OF and C). We can all guess, but only real games now can tell the tale on the retreads Archer and Bundy. I feel somewhat better about them than Happ/MattyShoe, because there still seems to be some power in their arms, but... well, we just need to see. 

I'm still mildly optimistic, but as you say, if it doesn't work there isn't a place for the Falvines to hide.

[GeorgiaBaller]

I think I may be the only one, but Joe Ryan concerns me as a starter.  I would call him a plane pitcher.  He throws from a low delivery point and his ball stays "on plane" to the plate.  No natural movement to his ball--he doesn't cut or rise.  Major league hitters do well with straight pitches---especially after a small amount of film.  That would give him 3-5 good starts this year before he starts to get hit hard---and they will only be 4-5 innings. 

You are not going to change his arm angle at this point, so, in my view, he has to be developing a cut and/or good changeup quickly.   Or, I fear, we may see a high percentage of hard hit balls at, on or over the fence when he takes the mound.

[nicksaviking]

Bundy was really only good for about 6 starts in 2020, otherwise he's been an overall pretty bad pitcher since his velocity left him in 2016-17.

That said, I don't think it will be a long experiment if he's not pitching well; the front office now seems eager to get the young guys up. The worst thing that could happen right now is for Bundy and Archer to pitch in that gray area between poor and abysmal and the team waffles an extra month about replacing them. No ill will towards either player, but they won't be part of this team's future contention so I hope they're out of the rotation by May.

Speaking of, for the last couple of years I thought Archer and his slider were destined to become a really good bullpen weapon someday....

[Dave The Dastardly]

The only way we'll find out if the young guys in the pitching pipeline are going to make it in the Bigs is to give them a shot in the Bigs. "Saving" their arms by keeping them in the minors too long and holding down their innings pitched doesn't prove anything. Forget the reclamation projects. Ain't no future in the past.

[terrydactyls]

The picture at the top of the article makes me wonder why every pitcher doesn't blow out his elbow.  The look of severe strain in that picture is brutal.

[Minny505]

Read a speculation piece in MLBTR that a Twins-Padres trade of Kepler for Snell, with prospects to fill it out, is on the table. 

Hopping over to Baseball Trade Values (I get it, not great, but very close 95% of the time), this seems like a trade that would be near even:

Twins get:
-Blake Snell
-MacKenzie Gore

Padres get:
-Max Kepler
-Blayne Enlow

Does that seem like an acceptable starting point for the Twins?

[D.C Twins]

 

Yikes!

"Neither is a total longshot. Either of these guys could turn into assets."

This description of 40% of a starting rotation is usually not compatible with a playoff appearance.

I say 'usually' because, well, I am old enough to remember our 3rd pitcher in 1987.... a one Les Straker

Though, unfortunately I we don't have a Frank V or Burt B equivalent in our rotation this year either.

[HerbieFan]

I'm with most in here...not sure why you get Gray/Correa but can't beat the relatively low price paid for Manaea, or another starter.  I'm excited about the pitching prospects moving forward.  But, strictly for 2022, we are relying far too much on "hope".  We hope Ober is the real deal as a #3/#4 starter.  We hope Ryan can replicate his success from a small 2021 sample size.  We hope Bundy can be more like the 2020 version than the version he's been most of his career.  We hope Archer can at least give us 5 innings and a sub-5.00 ERA from the #5 slot.  We hope Duran is ready for a role in the 'pen.  We hope Alcala continues to progress.  We hope Duffey returns to 2019-2020 version.  I'm all about hope...but we may be asking for a bit too much of it for 2022.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Well said Nick! I appreciate your candor on last year’s rotation outlook. While there were many who didn’t like Happ/Shoemaker right out of the gate… I think we all misjudged how bad it would really get.

hopefully I’m misjudging the ‘22 rotation to the negative and I’m proven wrong (happily)

[TopTwinsFan]

Falvey's approach:

We can win despite much quality pitching. Drink the Kool Aid please.

[DocBauer]

Interesting comment made by Tom on his Monday video concerning the FO not adding someone of greater value before the lockout. If you haven't listened, he used the term "sequencing" in regard to events. His general belief is that the Buxton extension was finalized just before the lockout...with hope but no guarantee Donaldson might be moved...and there were too many unknowns at that time to invest in a FA at that time, and not enough time to make a move. (I'm somewhat paraphrasing here). He has a point. Still, unless the FO really didn't feel relatively certain the extension was going to take place, they absolutely had need and payroll room to add JUST ONE solid, quality, proven arm that wouldn't break the bank. And that is my one big disappointment for this off-season. (Still would have dropped a couple $M on a viable RH hitting OF as well, but different topic).

My version of the BAD is rather obvious, we currently have a rotation that with defense, quality offense, a couple bats very close, and a potentially excellent pen, the Twins could have a wining team and make the playoffs. But an awful lot would have to go right to actually win in the post-season.

The GOOD is based on hope and speculation and depth. I like Gray. I like Ryan and Ober a lot. They are gamers, smart, and have solid stuff. I know we're banking on them a bit, but this is the kind of young rotation infusion we've needed and been waiting for. I've seen enough "flame outs" to know early results guarantee nothing. I've also seen plenty of poor initial performances from young pitchers to know that good/great performances may be ahead. But I'm very encouraged by both of these guys to be AT LEAST solid parts of the rotation, with potential. And I feel like depth is being provided by a number of arms where we don't have to go in to panic mode.

Barring a last minute move, or an in-season move at some point, Bundy and Archer are fixtures for the time being. Call me crazy, but I'm somewhat optomist here. I think I feel a little better about Archer. It's my understanding he's 100% healthy for the first time in about 3yrs. Reports are that his workouts in Arizona were filmed, and came with a flood of electronic data from velocity to spin rate, etc. Of course, scouts were also visibly in attendance, and I'd bet the Twins had someone there. Bundy, despite the loss of velocity from his prospect days due to injury, was pretty solid in his Baltimore days, playing for a bad team. I don't expect him to again be his career best 2020 version. But if he could just be a solid veteran who is a mix of his Orioles and 2020 Angels season, he would/could at least be a solid rotation piece. Am I mis-remembering, or did I read that despite a poor 2021, he actually pitched well his last few starts?

I am not clinging to blind hope that Canterino and SWR just blow through AA and AAA to make a difference in the 2nd half of the season. Nor am I holding out hope that Maeda makes a tremendous recovery to help a playoff push late in the year, though all of these things COULD happen. But I absolutely DO think Winder and Balazovic have the potential to make a difference before all is said and done.

I think it's OK to say "with a little bit of luck" at times, because health and experience and good coaching can help make "luck" happen. So with "luck" at least one of Bundy and Archer will prove themselves as worthy. And with a little bit of that "luck", this rotation will be solid for at least a couple months to buy time for Winder and Balazovic to get ready to contribute. 

I'm hopefully optimistic right now.

[jmlease1]

On 4/4/2022 at 12:36 PM, GeorgiaBaller said:

I think I may be the only one, but Joe Ryan concerns me as a starter.  I would call him a plane pitcher.  He throws from a low delivery point and his ball stays "on plane" to the plate.  No natural movement to his ball--he doesn't cut or rise.  Major league hitters do well with straight pitches---especially after a small amount of film.  That would give him 3-5 good starts this year before he starts to get hit hard---and they will only be 4-5 innings. 

You are not going to change his arm angle at this point, so, in my view, he has to be developing a cut and/or good changeup quickly.   Or, I fear, we may see a high percentage of hard hit balls at, on or over the fence when he takes the mound.

Does his fastball "stay on plane" though? every report I read on him and the in-game performance you see shows guys getting under it, which I wouldn't expect if it was coming in flat. His barrel rate is a little high, but the hard-hit % is better than average, so if he's able to keep that good control he showed (he's nicely below the MLB walk rate %, which is promising for a rookie even in a smaller sample) he looks primed to be a strong performer, especially as he continues to refine his off-speed offerings (primarily the slider and changeup, I think) which do a good job in changing the eye level of hitters.

The statcast on Ryan is really interesting to look at (again, it's not a huge sample). Suggests that he has good command over the fastball and locates it well, the slider locates pretty well, but he still could refine his command on it, and his change has almost surprisingly good command at this point that he locates well. (the curve is definitely the one that needs more work; it's much more all over the place, even if the results were overall pretty good) But if he can continue to spot the change up down in the zone and hammer the fastball up while getting people to chase with the slider...that's a good formula. The deception in his fastball plays up when you're changing the batter's eye effectively with a good changeup or slider.

I'll be interested to see if he throws the change to righties this season or the slider to lefties at all. he's got huge pitch splits on his off-speed pitches, and I always find that fascinating.

[GeorgiaBaller]

He has a very small sample size so far.  Good location on his fastball is OK.  A reliever can live fine on good location and a large change on the offspeed pitch.  They can be a HOF'r if that fastball can move---like a cutter---ie Mariano. 

All the items you just stated that can be "developed" are what my concern is.  At his age, these should already be developed.  spotting the fastball is great, but it really does not tail or dip and he does not have enough velocity to live on a 4 seamer.  I fear that once the book gets out on him, the second time teams start to see him, he gets barreled up more.

Watch his next start and let me know if his fastball moves or not.