A trade possibility between the Twins and the Padres? Paddock for???

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'd honestly rather watch Larnach play for the Twins than Kepler. As disappointing as Larnach's debut was last year, it wasn't demonstrably worse than Kepler's season. And Larnach should be on the upswing while Kepler is clearly on the downswing.

And if the Twins wait for Larnach/Martin/Lewis/Celestino/Rooker/Wallner(/for fun I'll throw Mark Conteras' name in too since he seems to have had an underappreciated season in AAA last year) to take Kepler's job, that probably means that when they're ready to move Kepler, he's been playing too poorly to get anything for him.

What's the alternative to waiting for 1 of those guys to take his job? Isn't it handing the job to a lesser player? 

And that's not even mentioning that you really need 2 of those guys to eclipse Kepler since LF is currently wide open. So 1 of those guys first needs to prove they're capable of taking the wide open corner out field spot and then you need a second guy to come up and be a 2 WAR player from the jump. Larnach is the only one with a real shot of out hitting Kepler right now. Lewis, Martin, and Celestino are the only ones with a shot of even being an average fielder let alone a gold glove caliber guy like Kepler. 

[nicksaviking]

42 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What's the alternative to waiting for 1 of those guys to take his job? Isn't it handing the job to a lesser player? 

And that's not even mentioning that you really need 2 of those guys to eclipse Kepler since LF is currently wide open. So 1 of those guys first needs to prove they're capable of taking the wide open corner out field spot and then you need a second guy to come up and be a 2 WAR player from the jump. Larnach is the only one with a real shot of out hitting Kepler right now. Lewis, Martin, and Celestino are the only ones with a shot of even being an average fielder let alone a gold glove caliber guy like Kepler. 

The team is rolling with a rookie as their opening day starter and Ober is the #2 or 3. Duran is making the club and Winder still might. 

I don't get why we can't do the youth movement with the offense too. Is Kepler better than Larnach right now? I don't know, most likely, but so what, it's not like were talking about getting rid of a middle of the order player, Kepler's about heartbeat away from being a platoon player anyway. 

And I could care less about the defensive prowess of the Twins rightfielder, that position should be almost entirely about finding the best bat for the future. Right field at Target Field is about the size of an Oldsmobile.

[nicksaviking]

46 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

you seem to be ignoring defense when comparing Larnah to Kepler......

I'm ok with moving Kepler, if they just put Martin out there in LF and let him run with it....and they get a SP in return. I just don't know that any of the SD pitchers that are available are much better than what the Twins have* (unless he replaces Bundy immediately).

*If all the young guys are bad, one more pitcher on a 2 year deal isn't helping

Yeah, I don't much care about the defense. Kepler's ability to back up CF is my only hesitation. Otherwise, groom the best bat for the spot.

If the young guys are bad, that's going to be a setback, but Kepler is already borderline bad.

[old nurse]

With all the glorious pitchers the Padres traded for 1 more. They know what they have and they got another. Perhaps the oversupply is not as good as people think they are

[nicksaviking]

15 minutes ago, old nurse said:

With all the glorious pitchers the Padres traded for 1 more. They know what they have and they got another. Perhaps the oversupply is not as good as people think they are

Probably not. They've been said to have a stable of young stud prospects for the last half decade and most of the shine has worn off.

Still, I'd be happy to see if a couple of them respond well to a change of scenery.

[tony&rodney]

I'm not sure why defense doesn't matter. I must disagree with this position, although many could argue for offense. If defense doesn't matter, I guess we could use Rooker and Sano in the outfield. They will hit enough home runs if they get 500+ at bats. Either way, San Diego has exactly one pitcher I would want (Musgrove) and another of interest (Gore). Just one opinion, but I wouldn't trade Kepler straight up for either guy.

[chpettit19]

37 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

The team is rolling with a rookie as their opening day starter and Ober is the #2 or 3. Duran is making the club and Winder still might. 

I don't get why we can't do the youth movement with the offense too. Is Kepler better than Larnach right now? I don't know, most likely, but so what, it's not like were talking about getting rid of a middle of the order player, Kepler's about heartbeat away from being a platoon player anyway. 

And I could care less about the defensive prowess of the Twins rightfielder, that position should be almost entirely about finding the best bat for the future. Right field at Target Field is about the size of an Oldsmobile.

So you want the young pitchers to come up and have bad defenders in both corners of the OF and a bad defender in CF if Buxton gets hurt during a time when 90% of hitters are trying to lift the ball and hit it to the OF? Bold strategy. I think you're drastically underestimating the importance of defense. The '03 Marlins, '04 Sox, '09 Yanks, and '11 Cards are the only teams since '03 to win the world series with negative defensive runs saved. 

Starting the youth movement is 1 thing, but setting up your young staff for failure by backing them with negative defensive assets all over the field is dooming the youth movement before it even starts. Defense matters. A lot.

[chpettit19]

Just now, tony&rodney said:

I'm not sure why defense doesn't matter. I must disagree with this position, although many could argue for offense. If defense doesn't matter, I guess we could use Rooker and Sano in the outfield. They will hit enough home runs if they get 500+ at bats. Either way, San Diego has exactly one pitcher I would want (Musgrove) and another of interest (Gore). Just one opinion, but I wouldn't trade Kepler straight up for either guy.

Defense absolutely matters. I agree with your stance there, but I think Kepler straight up for either of them is pretty reasonable.

[nicksaviking]

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

So you want the young pitchers to come up and have bad defenders in both corners of the OF and a bad defender in CF if Buxton gets hurt during a time when 90% of hitters are trying to lift the ball and hit it to the OF? Bold strategy. I think you're drastically underestimating the importance of defense. The '03 Marlins, '04 Sox, '09 Yanks, and '11 Cards are the only teams since '03 to win the world series with negative defensive runs saved. 

Starting the youth movement is 1 thing, but setting up your young staff for failure by backing them with negative defensive assets all over the field is dooming the youth movement before it even starts. Defense matters. A lot.

I'm more than over this team teaching it's pitchers that they should make the fielders get all of their outs for them. But either way, Larnach was perfectly fine in RF last year. It was LF where he struggled.

But if defense ends up being an issue for this team, than the silver lining likely is that the team ends up turning to Martin or Lewis, which sounds great to me.

[tony&rodney]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

Defense absolutely matters. I agree with your stance there, but I think Kepler straight up for either of them is pretty reasonable.

Personally, I put a huge premium on defense. The problem with losing Kepler is directly related to the current readiness and/or lack of depth of outfielders. I mean outfielders who can actually catch the ball too. 

There is a possibility of help from the minor leagues like Lewis, Martin, and Celestino but two of those guys are still playing in the infield. I have wondered what it would take to pry away an outfielder like Bryan Reynolds from the Pirates. I don't know what four or five prospects are necessary, but four years of a talented all around switch hitter who plays defense sounds attractive. This is why I'm not interested in trading Max.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm more than over this team teaching it's pitchers that they should make the fielders get all of their outs for them. But either way, Larnach was more than fine in RF last year. It was LF where he struggled.

But if defense ends up being an issue for this team, than the silver lining likely is that the team ends up turning to Martin or Lewis, which sounds great to me.

Who said they should be teaching their pitchers to have fielders get all the outs? Ryan and Ober both struck out more than a guy an inning in the majors last year. But the league K% last year was 23.2%. More than 75% of outs still come via fielders. Ignoring defense in the name of offense is a recipe for failure. 4 out of the last 19 World Series champs were even slightly negative defensively. Defense matters.

That isn't the likely answer at all. Martin and Lewis won't be called up simply because defense is a problem. That's not how things work. Martin or Lewis or Larnach or any other player you want to mention will replace Kepler when they're a better overall player than Kepler. Ignoring WAR and defense isn't an argument for them replacing Kepler. At this point Kepler is a better overall baseball player than any prospect you can name and is definitely better than any 2 that could take a corner OF spot.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Personally, I put a huge premium on defense. The problem with losing Kepler is directly related to the current readiness and/or lack of depth of outfielders. I mean outfielders who can actually catch the ball too. 

There is a possibility of help from the minor leagues like Lewis, Martin, and Celestino but two of those guys are still playing in the infield. I have wondered what it would take to pry away an outfielder like Bryan Reynolds from the Pirates. I don't know what four or five prospects are necessary, but four years of a talented all around switch hitter who plays defense sounds attractive. This is why I'm not interested in trading Max.

It sounds like the Pirates are asking for some crazy things from the Padres for Reynolds. I'd love him. I actually thought a deal for Kiermaier during the offseason would've been nice. And right now I'd really like a Conforto signing. I think him and Kepler in the corners with Buxton in center would be great.

I think Martin ends up in LF most of the time with the ability to bounce around a little, but that still leaves RF open after Kepler moves on and I'm hoping Larnach hits enough to make up for his not great glove and Celestino turns into a really good 4th OFer who does some platooning with Larnach. I'm also not interested in trading Kepler unless you're getting a really good player in return. He's the only Twins player worthy of major league innings in the corner OF (Kirilloff as well, but I'd prefer him at 1B as much as possible).

[tony&rodney]

The bar for a poor fielding defensive player getting every day time exists, but it is pretty high. Josh Willingham comes to mind and a current example would be Nick Castellanos. That guy hits the crap out of the ball. Going back you can include Nelson Cruz when he owned a glove. The bar is pretty high and I'm not sure the Twins have anyone capable of meeting the bar. Maybe Larnach or Wallner. I just prefer to see great defensive plays, it's not personal or anything.

[nicksaviking]

I know that I'm the low man when it comes to prioritizing defense, but I don't believe Kepler is a terribly good baseball player any longer. I mean, if it's defense one wants, there are usually a half dozen glove-only guys available on the waiver wire every day. I'm not saying Kepler is a glove only guy yet, but he's struggling to break the Mendoza Line and his power is draining. The clock seems to be ticking on him and if he's as valued by other people around the league as he is by Twins fans, pull the trigger now and sign Brett Gardner, Adam Eaton or some other defensive comfort blanket player to a MiLB deal as insurance.

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

9 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

It sounds like the Pirates are asking for some crazy things from the Padres for Reynolds.

I read on a few sites that the Padres wanted Reynolds for Paddock, Weathers, and a lower rated prospect. The rumors suggested that the Pirates wanted C. J. Abrams in addition to the two pitchers or another rumor replaced Abrams with Hassell/Campusano. I wouldn't want either of the Padre pitchers for a good player and Pittsburgh was correct to hang up. Reynolds is what the maximum ceiling for a Lewis or Martin could ever be plus he is a switch hitter. Not many players develop as Reynolds has in so many skill areas. The Twins have a boatload of milb guys and a gamble seems worth a call. Maybe a call was made too. Many or most might scream at the suggestion of losing Lewis or Martin plus a combination of other talented guys like Balazovic or Woods Richardson and then adding Sands, Strotman, and Wallner. That seems like way too much or not enough depending on perspective but Reynolds would really solidify the team. Anyway, just a thought. I'm ready for warmer weather.

[chpettit19]

31 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I know that I'm the low man when it comes to prioritizing defense, but I don't believe Kepler is a terribly good baseball player any longer. I mean, if it's defense one wants, there are usually a half dozen glove-only guys available on the waiver wire every day. I'm not saying Kepler is a glove only guy yet, but he's struggling to break the Mendoza Line and his power is draining. The clock seems to be ticking on him and if he's as valued by other people around the league as he is by Twins fans, pull the trigger now and sign Brett Gardner, Adam Eaton or some other defensive comfort blanket player to a MiLB deal as insurance.

The Phillies is a team you should track this year if you have some free time. They will be a very interesting team to follow. They're built the way you seem to be asking for. Bad defense all over the field in the name of good offense. Lineup is quite impressive, but will likely be insanely bad defensively. I'm excited to see how that experiment works out. We all have our own ideas on how teams should be built so it's always fun when teams do things differently and we can get some kind of real world tests run.

[wsnydes]

On 4/4/2022 at 10:05 AM, nicksaviking said:

There's no way the Twins pick up his 10M option if he still isn't hitting and I doubt the Twins are basing their evaluation on Kepler on WAR. His power is drying up and he's struggling to get on base; that's what they'll care about. Maybe the new shift rule will help him get on base more, but that's not going to help him put balls over the fence.

I'm guessing that there's little chance that they pick up that option regardless unless he's playing at a Buxton level.  They've got soooo many corner type players to fill that void, and as you mentioned in another post, Larnach wasn't a bad in RF.  That said, Larnach needs to hit too.

[TheLeviathan]

4 hours ago, wsnydes said:

I'm guessing that there's little chance that they pick up that option regardless unless he's playing at a Buxton level.  They've got soooo many corner type players to fill that void, and as you mentioned in another post, Larnach wasn't a bad in RF.  That said, Larnach needs to hit too.

I think this is the argument to nick's point.....finding a guy who can be a good value in RF isn't hard.  7M seems like an overpay for a league average bat and a good defender.  (Though different metrics disagree about how good, Fangraphs called him "merely average....trusting the WAR calculation on defense never sits well with me)

As a fan I like Max, but his contract is looking less and less like a boon and more like "meh".  If "meh" can land us an upside arm?  I'm game.  

 

[MTV]

I think the Twins could trade for Snell, and possibly Caratini if they want another back-up catcher (although I think we’ll be fine with Jeffers/Sanchez/Cisco). Snell fits the Ace/Lefty need in the Twins rotation, and The Padres need an Outfielder and a lefty bat so Trevor Larnach would work, plus a prospect or 2 finalize the deal.

so overall trade:

Twins: SP Blake Snell, (possibly) C Victor Caratini

Padres: OF Trevor Larnach, #20 prospect Blayne Enlow, #22 prospect Chris Vallimont, (possibly, for Caratini) #26 prospect Marco Raya

[wsnydes]

9 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

I think this is the argument to nick's point.....finding a guy who can be a good value in RF isn't hard.  7M seems like an overpay for a league average bat and a good defender.  (Though different metrics disagree about how good, Fangraphs called him "merely average....trusting the WAR calculation on defense never sits well with me)

As a fan I like Max, but his contract is looking less and less like a boon and more like "meh".  If "meh" can land us an upside arm?  I'm game.  

 

You're probably right.  I got rambling a bit, I think.

I'm with you on Kepler and his contract.  I value defense more than many, but there's going to be a time, likely in the not so distant future, where Kepler will be expendable one way or another.  Especially so if he's not hitting and someone else is.  That person hasn't emerged yet though.

[miller761]

Hopefully Kepler makes some of you look wrong at the end of the year. I think he will rebound this year to make us happy he is still in a Twin's uniform. He has worked hard this off season - hopefully some of his adjustments will help his hitting.

[Twodogs]

Not sure how DFA's work.  But maybe the Twins could pick up Justin Upton, and then turn around and trade him and someone else like Larnach for one of their pitchers?  I don't know what the Twins would be on the hook for with Upton money wise.  But dang he hit 17 HR's last year in just over 80 games.  Looks like he could still hit 25 - 30 bombs and, not that it really matters but has a great spring training line?  

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Twodogs said:

Not sure how DFA's work.  But maybe the Twins could pick up Justin Upton, and then turn around and trade him and someone else like Larnach for one of their pitchers?  I don't know what the Twins would be on the hook for with Upton money wise.  But dang he hit 17 HR's last year in just over 80 games.  Looks like he could still hit 25 - 30 bombs and, not that it really matters but has a great spring training line?  

The Twins would be on the hook for $28M if they claimed Upton.

I'm all for spending the Pohlad's money, but I can't get behind that level of irresponsibility. 

[Twodogs]

7 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

The Twins would be on the hook for $28M if they claimed Upton.

I'm all for spending the Pohlad's money, but I can't get behind that level of irresponsibility. 

So if someone picks up Upton they owe him 28 Million, but if no one picks him up then the Angels owe him 28 Million?  That doesn't make sense?  I was under the impression that if someone picked up a player who has been DFA'd that the former team still owes him the contract??

[USAFChief]

7 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

The Twins would be on the hook for $28M if they claimed Upton.

I'm all for spending the Pohlad's money, but I can't get behind that level of irresponsibility. 

If a team claims Upton, they pay his contract.  However, If Upton clears waivers and is released, any team subsequently employing him only pays him the MLB minimum. The Angels pay the rest of his contract. 

 

Zero chance he gets claimed. But I'd wager there's A HIGH percent chance he plays in the big leagues this season.

 

I wouldn't be opposed to Upton as a 4th outfielder.

[USAFChief]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/04/twins-working-on-deal-for-chris-paddack.html

 

Larnach?

[PseudoSABR]

2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/04/twins-working-on-deal-for-chris-paddack.html

 

Larnach?

Larnach is a lot to give up for Paddack's track record.  His ERA and FIP are all over the place.  But you could be right with them taking him out of the lineup.

I would hope for Rooker honestly, but Padres probably don't need him with Voight and Beaty. 

[tony&rodney]

Not a fan of Paddock. He is overrated. Bundy 2.0 without the experience.

[TeJayDubz]

Now it looks like the twins are going for Chris Paddack ?

[clone52]

4 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Not a fan of Paddock. He is overrated. Bundy 2.0 without the experience.

Nah, younger, cheaper, more control, better stuff and potential to turn it around,  His stats aren't great lately, so probably not super costly.  Worth a shot.  Sounds like he's got a good FB/Changeup.  Wonder if the Twins staff can work on a better third pitch.  If not, convert him to a reliever.  He's fantastic first time through the order.

Maybe they go to a 6 man rotation.  He is a ton better with an extra day or two of rest.  With Ryan, Ober, other rookies and a recovering Archer, that may make a ton of sense.

Assuming the trade value isn't insane, I'd be good with it.  If it happens, I bet its part of a bigger deal.