Offseason Status Update: Is That It?

[Nick Nelson]

Given how things have played out, with the lockout causing a major overlap between Hot Stove season and spring training, it's only fitting that our last offseason status update comes just four days ahead of the season opener.

Read on for a rundown of the front office's final (we think?) moves and a look ahead at the projected 2022 Twins roster and payroll.

Around the time of our last check-in, anticipation was building for a big move to round out the rotation after the splashy addition of Carlos Correa. Such a bold showing of intention had to be followed by a similarly decisive pitching acquisition, right?

It turns out, no. The Twins were evidently shut out in the trade market and so they pivoted to fill the last spot in their rotation with a fairly low-wattage signing. The bullpen received a bit more veteran depth with a couple of minor-league signings, but for the most part, it looks like this is the pitching staff Minnesota will roll with.

Let's take a look at the last few players brought into this mix.

Twins Make a Volatile Upside Play with Chris Archer Signing

At one point, Chris Archer ranked among the best and most durable young pitchers in baseball. From 2013 through 2017 in Tampa, he almost never missed a start, piling up nearly 1,000 innings in 156 starts with a 3.60 ERA and 9.7 K/9 rate. 

Those days are now in the distant past. In four seasons since, the righty has thrown 287 innings with a 4.70 ERA, although the strikeout ability has remained (10.3 K/9). He didn't pitch in 2020 due to thoracic outlet surgery, and was limited to just six appearances last year in his reunion with the Rays.

So, obviously a longshot. But that's why he was still available this late in the game, and why he came with such a low guaranteed price tag ($3.5M). Archer will be able to significantly increase his 2022 salary by reaching productivity thresholds, in a deal that is somewhat similar in structure to the one Rich Hill signed with Minnesota two years ago – a "pay-as-you-play" approach, as JD Cameron puts it. 

It's been a while since we've seen it materialize, but Archer's upside remains, and his debut in a Twins uniform on Friday offered some encouraging signs in terms of his velocity and stuff.

Two More Veteran Relievers Join the Bullpen Picture

A couple names you might recognize joined the Twins on minor-league deals last week: Jake Petricka and JC Ramirez. Both right-handers have thrown more than 200 innings in the majors and pitched most recently for the Angels.

Neither pitcher has a significant recent track record in the majors – Ramirez hasn't appeared since 2019 and Petricka has thrown just 14 total innings since 2018. But the experience could give them a leg up on the depth chart, and Ramirez in particular is interesting because he could become a bridge-type guy capable of providing multiple innings.

No More Trades for Pitching?

The Twins kept on pushing for one of Oakland's two top starting pitchers known to be available. After the team signed Archer, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported that "They also have spent the past 2 1/2 weeks attempting to pry either Frankie Montas or Sean Manaea away from Oakland without success. While the Twins have made it clear they’d like to complete a deal — and still have interest in one —  the previously wheeling-and-dealing A’s haven’t recently engaged them."

On Sunday, the A's finally pulled the trigger on one of these two starters – Manaea, who they were always much more motivated to deal due to his salary and expiring team control. Oakland sent the left-hander to San Diego for a fairly underwhelming return, suggesting there wasn't much of a market for him despite many teams still looking to add starters.

It remains possible that the Twins could strike an 11th-hour deal for Montas or another starter. But in all likelihood, the current group is the one they're going to roll into the season with. So let's take a look at how that group shakes out.

Twins 2022 Roster & Payroll Projection

The team has made a bunch of cuts, narrowing down the final field of players in camp and leaving only a few decisions to be made on the bullpen and bench. Below you can find my stab at projecting the Opening Day roster. A few notes:

• I've got Brent Rooker filling the fourth outfield spot, if only because it's the most convenient and easy course of action. I actually have a sneaking suspicion that the Twins will choose to go with Kyle Garlick in that spot, possibly DFA-ing Rooker to make room on the 40-man roster. But we'll see. 
• All major-league teams will have two extra roster spots for the month of April, to help offset the shortened spring ramp-up. I'm assuming the Twins will use both on pitchers and carry a 15-man staff (in fact I wouldn't be surprised if they go with 16). I've plugged in Griffin Jax and Josh Winder.
• I didn't account for those additional fractional salaries in the total payroll. They would increase it modestly. (At the league minimum, paying two extra players for one month equates to about $233K – a little less than Correa will earn for each game. I have the total payroll projected at $128M, which is roughly in line with last year's figure.
• It's worth noting that the payroll is fluid and can easily rise if Archer or Byron Buxton trigger portions of their ample incentives. 

Barring something unexpected, the "offseason" is complete and the Twins have assembled their forces for the 2022 campaign. We'll gain clarity on the final roster in the coming days, but it should resemble the above fairly closely.

How are you feeling about the state of affairs as we await the impending start of the season?

 

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[sorney]

I'm ready for some baseball.   I think the roster is "fine" for now.  Obviously adding more pitching would have been awesome, but they are where they are at.  Let's see how it goes the first couple months.

[mikelink45]

Nice job - I am anxious for the season, but hold less optimism than many of the TD fans.  That rotation just does not look good enough for me to see more than a 500 season.  My best hope is that the vets burn out quickly enough to get some young arms in up to infuse some extra energy.  Gray is the only vet I have high hopes for.

The best fourth OF has already been sent down so we will have to see if Rooker provides anything of value and if Jeffers can catch fire and live up to status of number one catcher.  

[PatPfund]

Great summary! I'm fine with where they are. I'm also optimistic about the team, though I guess that is a relative term since (like mikelink45) I see something around .500 this year. (But something around .500 is much better than last year, so...)

You are probably closer to the actual decisions, but I'd still like to see DFAs for Stashak and Thielbar (rather than Rooker) to add Garlick (or somebody else who can play OF, can hit and is DFA'd elsewhere), and start with Moran in Mpls instead of St Paul. The need for a real OF option grows if Kirilloff's knee-tweak today limits his outfield play.

 

[raindog]

7 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

Great summary! I'm fine with where they are. I'm also optimistic about the team, though I guess that is a relative term since (like mikelink45) I see something around .500 this year. (But something around .500 is much better than last year, so...)

You are probably closer to the actual decisions, but I'd still like to see DFAs for Stashak and Thielbar (rather than Rooker) to add Garlick (or somebody else who can play OF, can hit and is DFA'd elsewhere), and start with Moran in Mpls instead of St Paul. The need for a real OF option grows if Kirilloff's knee-tweak today limits his outfield play.

 

No chance they DFA Thielbar. The guy has been excellent for the past two years. 

[RpR]

Barring the signing of a upper level Left Fielder, they are not as good as the hype from last year but no worse either.

If they are not by the first of June in a postion where playing .500 ball the rest of the year will leave them ten games under .500, they are in better shape.

[se7799]

22 minutes ago, RpR said:

Barring the signing of a upper level Left Fielder, they are not as good as the hype from last year but no worse either.

If they are not by the first of June in a postion where playing .500 ball the rest of the year will leave them ten games under .500, they are in better shape.

Is there a upper level left fielder left available  to sign?  Curious who you might have considered as still possible.

[RpR]

6 minutes ago, se7799 said:

Is there a upper level left fielder left available  to sign?  Curious who you might have considered as still possible.

None that I know of but the Twins seem capable of pulling rabbit out ot a hat on occasion.

[Nick Nelson]

Update: shortly after this was published the Twins placed Cody Stashak on IL. So swap him out on that roster projection. If we assume Jax, Duran and Winder are all in, it comes down to Coulombe or Romero. 

 

[KFEY93]

57 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

Great summary! I'm fine with where they are. I'm also optimistic about the team, though I guess that is a relative term since (like mikelink45) I see something around .500 this year. (But something around .500 is much better than last year, so...)

You are probably closer to the actual decisions, but I'd still like to see DFAs for Stashak and Thielbar (rather than Rooker) to add Garlick (or somebody else who can play OF, can hit and is DFA'd elsewhere), and start with Moran in Mpls instead of St Paul. The need for a real OF option grows if Kirilloff's knee-tweak today limits his outfield play.

 

Is it that much better though? What is it...6 more wins? thats still mediocre. .500 should never be the goal of any club in any pro sport. That's how you get stuck in Vikings land kicking the Cousins can down the road. Its misery. 

[The Mad King]

I was hoping for another veteran pitcher, but tis not to be. At least we'll get a look at some of the younger arms we've been collecting.

[cHawk]

Given that we’re four days from Opening Day, I would assume so. Of course I could be wrong, but I doubt we’ll see any more moves made.

[rikker49]

The equivalent of the A's - Padres trade would have been Wallner/Raya for Manaea. Not sure if I would have pulled the trigger on that one

[USAFChief]

Looks like a 70-ish win team to me. Can't see this pitching staff holding up. 

 

Hope I'm wrong.

 

[HerbieFan]

I'm a fan, no matter what happens.  I would love nothing more than to see Ryan and Ober develop into solid #3 and #4 starters.  I love that we're going to get to see Duran and Winder.  I have no idea if this team can compete for a playoff spot and, frankly, I don't care.  I just can't freaking wait for Thursday.  And I can't wait to see how prospects continue to develop this year.  

[Doctor Gast]

There has been a lot trades going on both big & small. My hope is they trade for a CF sub and front line SP. But unless teams approaches them with a trade that's fits their evaluations they won't buck their mindset no matter how it benifits the team. 

[tony&rodney]

I'm fine with the Twins rolling with their current roster ..... because that is the way it is. I do wish the team would take a chance once in a while to get better. Some might say that Correa was a chance but I would term that a gift from Correa/Boras knowing what a joy it will be for CC to hit with Buxton and Polanco. When I read about rumors involving the Pirates outfielder, Reynolds, I think to myself - why not the Twins? It is actually possible too. It would be nice to see some forward movements. Nevertheless, I'm hoping Winder, Duran, Canterino, and Balazovic make spectacular meaningful debuts this year along with Jose Miranda. It is possible that the next guys up are ready to go right now and that this is the year that the former youth play to their potential too.  

[D.C Twins]

Hopefully the FO REALLY knows something we don't yet know about the readiness of our young pitchers.

We have exactly one starter with established long term MLB success that is not a wild card based on recent injuries.

That is a HUGE risk. A few injuries (Bundy, Archer) and/or regression due to the league catching up (Ober, Ryan)..... things could go very south, very quickly. Even if the prospects in AAA ultimately have a wonderful career, most will likely struggle during their MLB debuts and not suck up enough innings even if successful.

I wish we had not left so much up to luck on the pitching side with our line up being so impressive.

Buck, Correa, and Palanco will make this a fun team to watch though even if the pitching implodes.

[D.C Twins]

Buck will be league MVP this year (if healthy). He is absolutely ready to tear sh*t up!

[blindeke]

It's wild that Correa makes more per season than the entire pitching staff. That's probably not a great sign...

[jimbo92107]

Imagine these Twins (with Lennon's Imagine in the background)

• Imagine a healthy, confident Byron Buxton batting leadoff, all five tools intact and working. 
• Imagine Carlos Correa batting right after Buxton, driving balls into the gaps, over the fences....
• Imagine Jorge Polanco batting third, causing more havoc with two fast men ahead of him.
• Imagine sweet Luis Arraez, bat magician, knocking in the first three.
• Then steps up a towering doom of a man, grinning. Unleash the Sano!
• Then the shotgun bat of Kirilloff, spraying baseballs all over the outfield.
• Then Ryan Jeffers, seeking to prove he can hit it as hard as Sano.
• Then Kepler, trying to regain the old magic, from two years ago.
• Finally, that pesky little guy, Nick Gordon, doing whatever needs to be done. If he gets on base before Buxton, watch out.

Imagine you're a starting pitcher, having to deal with that buzz saw of a lineup. You better not make a mistake... heh-heh...

I think this Twins team is going to tear some pitching staffs to pieces. If their pitching staff is reasonably stingy, they could win a lot of games. 

 

[tony&rodney]

Yah, it is fun to imagine the Twins being good. I do. Correa, however, doesn't have any speed though so no imagination help there. 

[DocBauer]

With one possible exception, I think the roster is set right now as is. A question remaining is keeping Coulombe and making a move to keep him while risking losing someone on waivers.

I'm OK with Bundy or Archer, but never would have ran with both of them. There is actual upside with both of them for different reasons. But I would have been more pro-active before the lockout, even without knowing if Donaldson was going to be moved, and target someone I had greater faith in for 3yrs and about $14-15M per KNOWING I had need, availability, and the money to do it. Gray, combined with Archer/Bundy and basically everything else that took place I'm OK with what and who and when and why.

Smith is fine for the middle of the pen, but it feels like we have those guys already. I would have loved to have seen a little better signing for the backend up the pen.

The last big issue, as I seee it, is the 4th OF spot. And that's where I see some unfinished business and a possible inexpensive move. The 4th OF doesn't even have to cover CF with Kepler and Gordon on hand and Cestino close by and getting ready. But they never should have gone to camp just expecting Rooker or Garlick to emerge. A smaller Fa signing or trade should have been made to ensure we had a viable RH bat 4th OF.

An earlier FA SP signing, a back end arm, a better 4th OF option pushes the payroll in to the $130's, more than affordable. And if incentives are earned that pushes the payroll further, you can bet the team would be thrilled by that.

I like an awful lot about this team despite the comments I just made. And im generally a FO supporter.. I think there a NUMBER of really good kids who are ready/nearly ready to make a difference and take on jobs. We have the depth to still make a trade later on based on need and record. And I'm excited to have baseball back! The whole world is just better when it's base baseball season.

I'm just perplexed/disappointed a couple more/different moves could have made this offseason even better without doing anything to break the bank or sacrifice the future. 

GO TWINS!

[h2oface]

I hope Polanco has a switch he can flip as the season starts. It's been a dreadful spring for him. This one was really bad with just 2 hits in 29 ABs. They were a homer and double though....

 

[Whitey333]

Exciting to see the season starting Thursday or maybe Friday depending on the weather.  Offense and defense look great.  Gray is a solid starting pitcher addition.  Other than that the rest of the starting staff is made up of reclamation projects again.  Plus two young promising pitchers but very limited experience.  I think if we had added one more reliable starter we could have perhaps won up to 90 games this year. But like last year this pitching staff will lose a lot of games for the Twins.  

[chpettit19]

16 hours ago, se7799 said:

Is there a upper level left fielder left available  to sign?  Curious who you might have considered as still possible.

Michael Conforto.

[Karbo]

The start of a baseball season. So many high hopes, and unanswered questions. Green grass and (hopefully) sunshine. The unofficial start of summer. My favorite time of the year. My wish is that our boys can at least stay competitive this season and at best win the series. There's a lot of room in between that would make this season very enjoyable to watch for me!

[jmlease1]

Ugh, way too many pitchers on the opening day roster projections. Having a 10 man bullpen is ridiculous, truncated spring training or not, and the possibility of only having a 3 person bench is simply wrong. Even if we're going with a lot of "5 and fly" starts this season, we just don't need this many pitchers, especially if they're planning on getting someone like Winder regular work of more than 1 inning at a time (which they need to be or he should be in Saint Paul).

[dex8425]

12 hours ago, h2oface said:

I hope Polanco has a switch he can flip as the season starts. It's been a dreadful spring for him. This one was really bad with just 2 hits in 29 ABs. They were a homer and double though....

 

He started real slow last year too. Hope that doesn't happen again because with the current schedule we really need to make hay in May and be above .500 by June 1 so the FO doesn't sell at the deadline. 

[dex8425]

As long as Buxton, Correa and Polanco are on the field, I'll take the over on the vegas 81 win prediction for this team. Yep, the rotation is suspect, but it can't possibly be as bad as last year, and we have arguably the best up-the middle in MLB. AK for a whole season and Sano in shape will help too.