I Want To Believe, But There Are Too Many "Ifs" Heading Into The Season

[Dave Overlund]

Before the internet, folks would prepare for the upcoming season by reading one of the many preview magazines that cost an arm and a leg at the grocery store. My dad would always say that you could tell how good a team would be by how many times the preview of it said "if."

I share my motto for the upcoming Twins season with '90's science fiction TV show "The X-Files." I want to believe.

However, looking at this pitching staff, I am having a hard time suspending my disbelief to buy in with this team. Who the heck is going to pitch? Who will play in the outfield when Buxton and/or Kepler are inevitably injured at some point this season? Who is the closer?

Before the internet, folks would prepare for the upcoming season by reading one of the many preview magazines that cost an arm and a leg at the grocery store. My dad would always say that you could tell how good a team would be by how many times the preview of it said "if."

There are way too many "ifs" this year for me to take the Twins seriously. I don't think they will be awful, but I don't think they are in any way a World Series team this season. Of course I am also on record as saying I thought the Wild would stink this season. So it goes.

"If" Byron Buxton stays healthy...

"If" Bailey Ober can be successful...

"If" Dylan Bundy is one of the few reclamation projects this FO has tried that works...

"If" Ryan, Jax, etc can be stretched out for a full season...

"If" Chris Archer can provide competent innings, let alone return to his all star form...

"If" Alex Kirilloff develops into an impactful, everyday player...

"If" Gary Sanchez cuts down on his strikeouts...

"If" Jorge Polanco can repeat his monster 2021 season...

"If" Ryan Jeffers can be a solid full time catcher... 

There are too many "ifs" this year. I think there will be high points this season and I hope that the team is competitive well into October. But they will need a lot of things to go their way.

I have been a Twins fan since I was born, and I always WANT the team to do well. I just don't know how to convince myself that they will be good this season. 

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[RJA]

I think you have captured how a lot of Twins fans feel, Dave.  We are excited for the season to start, we want the team to do well, but we all recognize how many things have to go right for the Twins to contend.  It will be interesting to revisit your article on July 1 to see how many "ifs" turned out ok and how many remain a problem.  Let's hope we are all thinking about who the Twins can pick up at the deadline to help with their pennant run.

[mikelink45]

Nice essay - yes - IF!

[jmlease1]

There's really no reason you shouldn't expect Polanco to have an all-star caliber season, except for the assumption that Twins fans can't have nice things. He's coming off a great season, he's playing his best position and locked in there (with an all-star locked in next to him), he's in the prime of his career, he was healthy last season...if he's an "If" then I don't know where you find certainty.

 

[The Mad King]

I believe the last two will happen. 

[lukeduke1980]

If some bullpen arms develop or step up in a big way.  

[Sean.h]

I think the only IFs that the Twins are relying too heavily are on Bundy and Archer. In other areas, things happen but they tend to average out, and any team has that level of uncertainty.

[Dman]

I feel the same way but I am still going into the season with a glass half full view until that no longer looks viable.  If you are looking for hope the 87 Twins were never supposed to contend yet alone even win a playoff game so you just never know.  I am keeping on my rose colored glasses for now.  hopefully this season is more enjoyable than last years.

[roger]

Only one of those ifs really matters, the first.  If Buxton stays on the field, say 140+ games, history says the Twins win.

[nclahammer]

Going back to my DJ days and I cue up "Rose Colored Glasses" by John Conlee.  I believe.

[Whitey333]

Great article.  I think that's the consensus of many Twins fans.  I hope they do well but really doubt it as this FO keeps sending out reclamation projects to the pitching mound.  They do this year after year and the results reflect their approach.  Too many "ifs " but a new season is here.  Go Twins!

[MN_ExPat]

Nice write up Dave.

• If" Byron Buxton stays healthy... 
  • I think he is starting to show that he can, at least in taking care of the things that he can control.  Last season's injuries mostly were out of his control.
• "If" Bailey Ober can be successful...
  • I would put forward that he already has been.  The key may be how he and the coaching staff adjusts to the league adjusting to him
• "If" Dylan Bundy is one of the few reclamation projects this FO has tried that works...
  • It's a coin toss in my mind.  He's got pretty good stuff and key may be whether or not he is able to stay within what he brings to the dance and not try to do to much.
• "If" Joe Ryan, Josh Winder, etc can be stretched out for a full season...
  • They're good enough talent wise.  If managed properly, I believe they will be fine
• "If" Chris Archer can provide competent innings, let alone return to his all star form...
  • In my mind this is a bigger crap shoot than Bundy (at least health wise).  The track record of pitchers being able to bounce back from TOS is small, but there is a possibility it happens.  How much he bounces back... well, we just wont know yet.  Still, I'm going to pull for him because... baseball  
• "If" Alex Kirilloff develops into an impactful, everyday player...
  • I would argue he has somewhat.  Can he stay healthy for a full season again may be the bigger question. 
• "If" Gary Sanchez cuts down on his strikeouts...
  • ?‍♂️
  • The key for Sanchez, may be how everyone around him is hitting.  If guys are raking, he may see better pitches.
  • 2 - 0 Change Ups are why I have trust issues
• "If" Jorge Polanco can repeat his monster 2021 season...
  • With good health, we should see similar numbers
• "If" Ryan Jeffers can be a solid full time catcher... 
  • Again I would argue that he is a solid/very good catcher.  Hitting... we shall see I guess  

[Squirrel]

10 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

Nice write up Dave.

• If" Byron Buxton stays healthy... 
  • I think he is starting to show that he can, at least in taking care of the things that he can control.  Last season's injuries mostly were out of his control.
• "If" Bailey Ober can be successful...
  • I would put forward that he already has been.  The key may be how he and the coaching staff adjusts to the league adjusting to him
• "If" Dylan Bundy is one of the few reclamation projects this FO has tried that works...
  • It's a coin toss in my mind.  He's got pretty good stuff and key may be whether or not he is able to stay within what he brings to the dance and not try to do to much.
• "If" Joe Ryan, Josh Winder, etc can be stretched out for a full season...
  • They're good enough talent wise.  If managed properly, I believe they will be fine
• "If" Chris Archer can provide competent innings, let alone return to his all star form...
  • In my mind this is a bigger crap shoot than Bundy (at least health wise).  The track record of pitchers being able to bounce back from TOS is small, but there is a possibility it happens.  How much he bounces back... well, we just wont know yet.  Still, I'm going to pull for him because... baseball  
• "If" Alex Kirilloff develops into an impactful, everyday player...
  • I would argue he has somewhat.  Can he stay healthy for a full season again may be the bigger question. 
• "If" Gary Sanchez cuts down on his strikeouts...
  • ?‍♂️
  • The key for Sanchez, may be how everyone around him is hitting.  If guys are raking, he may see better pitches.
  • 2 - 0 Change Ups are why I have trust issues
• "If" Jorge Polanco can repeat his monster 2021 season...
  • With good health, we should see similar numbers
• "If" Ryan Jeffers can be a solid full time catcher... 
  • Again I would argue that he is a solid/very good catcher.  Hitting... we shall see I guess  

So, you're saying that these things aren't as iffy as some think?  

[Karbo]

The start of every season is full of if's. 162 games, 6+ months is a long time, things happen. I have been a Twins fan since they moved here, (Though I was just a young boy then). I haven't seen a season yet that has gone as expected. That is one the many things I love about baseball. But this time of year we can all be full of hope. Maybe this year is the year. After all, We are in 1st place!

[diehardtwinsfan]

Some of the "ifs" will pan out. Some won't unfortunately. That's how it works. I tend to agree. Way too much uncertainty. That's what bothers me about the new CBA. For teams like the Twins, the only way they can win it is with the "ifs" all lining up. 

[MN_ExPat]

2 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

So, you're saying that these things aren't as iffy as some think?  

If by saying Iffy you mean... perhaps, by chance, we shall see, let's find out, let's put a pin in that and circle back around to it, I have to think about it, possibly, it is in the realm of possible, Let's ask the Magic 8 Ball... then maybe  .

[Squirrel]

What would be worse ... and you can't say 'yes' (or an equivalent of yes) as an answer ... but what would be worse:

A season full of ifs that didn't pan out?

-0R-

A season NOT full of ifs that didn't pan out?

Okay, I'm not saying it's better to have a lot of ifs, because it's not, but I think spoiled expectations is worse. Maybe. Losing regardless is worse, but, just trying on my 'a little perspective' glasses. Don't really like them, but, it might get me through the season. 

[Squirrel]

2 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

Let's ask the Magic 8 Ball.

That would be the most reliable.

[MN_ExPat]

1 minute ago, Squirrel said:

What would be worse ... and you can't say 'yes' as an answer ... but what would be worse:

A season full of ifs that didn't pan out?

-0R-

A season NOT full of ifs that didn't pan out?

Okay, I'm not saying it's better to have a lot of ifs, because it's not, but I think spoiled expectations is worse. Maybe. Losing regardless is worse, but, just trying on my 'a little perspective' glasses. Don't really like them, but, it might get me through the season. 

Aye

(I did NOT say yes  )

[Squirrel]

3 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

Aye

(I did NOT say yes  )

 

6 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

and you can't say 'yes' (or an equivalent of yes) as an answer

I fixed it ... but someone else will just ignore that or find another workaround ...

 

 

yes

[MN_ExPat]

4 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

That would be the most reliable.

Funny thing is... I actually have one (Magic 8 Ball) in my office.

[Squirrel]

Just now, MN_ExPat said:

Funny thing is... I actually have one (Magic 8 Ball) in my office.

Are you a stock broker?

[MN_ExPat]

1 minute ago, Squirrel said:

Are you a stock broker?

No, I'm with someone else... and we're here to help.

[Trov]

Every team has a ton of If's every year.  It is always if our best players can stay healthy.  If our pitchers perform well.  If our team hits well.  I get where the writer is going with this, but every team has the if player x grows or plays like they did in past, or stays healthy.  You have an if Buck stays healthy, which then assumes he will play at the MVP level he was last year when healthy, but maybe he will be healthy but return to his young 20's form and be below average offense.  So that is really 2 ifs for one player.  

We have ifs on health for each player, and performance on each player.  No team does well if their players play below expectations going into the season.  

[Riverbrian]

12 minutes ago, Trov said:

Every team has a ton of If's every year.  It is always if our best players can stay healthy.  If our pitchers perform well.  If our team hits well.  I get where the writer is going with this, but every team has the if player x grows or plays like they did in past, or stays healthy.  You have an if Buck stays healthy, which then assumes he will play at the MVP level he was last year when healthy, but maybe he will be healthy but return to his young 20's form and be below average offense.  So that is really 2 ifs for one player.  

We have ifs on health for each player, and performance on each player.  No team does well if their players play below expectations going into the season.  

Yep... Just change the names and this article can be cut and pasted for the other 29 teams. 

 

[old nurse]

Having very few ifs means nothing because there is always the big IF, if everything goes right. Just ask the Dodgers.  Better yet, ask the Yankees

[Heiny]

1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

What would be worse ... and you can't say 'yes' (or an equivalent of yes) as an answer ... but what would be worse:

A season full of ifs that didn't pan out?

-0R-

A season NOT full of ifs that didn't pan out?

Okay, I'm not saying it's better to have a lot of ifs, because it's not, but I think spoiled expectations is worse. Maybe. Losing regardless is worse, but, just trying on my 'a little perspective' glasses. Don't really like them, but, it might get me through the season. 

What's worse?  Wow, maybe "IF" we overthink things,  we don't allow ourselves to actually enjoy the game of baseball and the always uncertainty of a season in March and April?

[Squirrel]

1 minute ago, Heiny said:

What's worse?  Wow, maybe "IF" we overthink things,  we don't allow ourselves to actually enjoy the game of baseball and the always uncertainty of a season in March and April?

My point wasn’t clear but as I said, it’s a matter of perspective 

[USAFChief]

39 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Having very few ifs means nothing because there is always the big IF, if everything goes right. Just ask the Dodgers.  Better yet, ask the Yankees

Ask the "haven't had a losing season since 1992" Yankees?

The "one losing season since 2006, with appearances in 3 of the last 5 WS" Dodgers?

 

Ask them?

 

I wager the Dodgers are in the post season this year. No ifs, ands or buts about it.

[old nurse]

6 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Ask the "haven't had a losing season since 1992" Yankees?

The "one losing season since 2006, with appearances in 3 of the last 5 WS" Dodgers?

 

Ask them?

 

I wager the Dodgers are in the post season this year. No ifs, ands or buts about it.

The Dodger and Yankee ifs are not about making the playoffs. Never has been for a long time. Their ifs are about winning WS. The teams still have their ifs