Organizing Minnesota’s Bullpen Pecking Order

[Cody Christie]

Last winter, the Twins brought in Alex Colome to serve in a late-inning role, but he failed miserably. Now, Taylor Rogers is returning from injury, so what’s the team’s late-inning bullpen pecking order?

Some questions surrounded Rogers returning from a finger injury that ended his 2021 season. Rogers has looked strong this spring, so there may be little to worry about for the 2022 campaign. However, the team will need to have a contingency plan if his finger injury acts up or if he suffers another injury. Here is how the team will likely use the bullpen in the late innings. 

1. Taylor Rogers, LHP
Rogers was a first-time All-Star during the 2021 season following a first-half where he posted a 3.35 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and 54 strikeouts in 37 2/3 innings. It was a solid first half, but it was hardly the best version of Rogers. From 2018-19, Rogers pitched nearly 140 innings with a 2.62 ERA, a sub-1.00 WHIP, and 10.8 K/9. Before his injury, Minnesota was exploring trade options for Rogers, and there was no guarantee the team would offer him arbitration this year. He is entering his final year of team control, so he needs to prove that he can be a dominant back-end reliever as he hits free agency for the first time. As a 31-year-old, it might be his only chance at a big payday, but the Twins have other options if Rogers isn’t successful in 2022. 

2. Tyler Duffey, RHP
Duffey was one of baseball’s best relievers entering the 2021 season as the Twins used him to get out of plenty of late-inning jams. From 2019-20, Duffey pitched 81 2/3 innings, and he struck out 113 batters with a 0.94 WHIP. Last season, he struggled for the first time since 2018 as he posted a 3.18 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP. His strikeout rate dropped from 11.6 K/9 in 2020 to 8.8 K/9 in 2021. Besides his lack of strikeouts, there were some concerns with the number of hard hits and his change in pitch usage. However, Duffey seems like the best candidate to take over the closer role if Rogers misses time or is ineffective. 

3. Jorge Alcalá, RHP
Alcalá has been on the cusp of a breakout for multiple seasons, and there were signs he started to break out last season. He decreased his fastball usage and saw a big jump in his changeup usage. His fastball tends to be up, so his improved changeup has played even better down in the zone. Last year in the second half, he managed a 2.88 ERA, 0.36 HR/9, 2.01 FIP, and a 32% K%. If these trends continue, Alcalá may be evolving into Minnesota’s future closer, especially if he can lower his career .843 OPS versus left-handed batters. 

4. Caleb Thielbar, LHP
Thielbar has been a surprise contributor to the Twins bullpen over the last two seasons as he has become one of the team’s most reliable arms. Over the last two seasons, he has a 3.00 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and 99 strikeouts in 84 innings. He turned 35-years-old earlier this year, and he has previously been close to retirement. Outside of Rogers, he is the lefty with the most late-inning experience, so it will be intriguing to see how the Twins use him this season. Does he get the opportunity to earn his first big-league save?

Dark Horse Candidate: Jovani Moran, LHP
Moran was the Twins Daily 2022 Minor League Reliever of the Year, and his changeup has the potential to make him unhittable at the big-league level. He struck out nearly 41.8% of batters in the minors this season, and he will look to transition those numbers to the Twins. Like Alcalá, there may be some growing pains on the way to being a dominant late-inning arm. With Duffey and Rogers heading to free agency, Alcalá and Moran are part of the team’s long-term bullpen plans. 

How do you think the Twins will use the back-end of their bullpen this season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[terrydactyls]

I think there might have been some "cut and paste" in the evaluation of Moran.  It appears that the analysis was written last year with just 2021 changed to 2022.  I'm pretty sure he hasn't struck out 40% of minor league hitters this year.  ? ?

[Dave The Dastardly]

To answer your question; poorly. Slap me for being negative, but until Rocco learns how to use a pitching staff and bullpen wisely all our hurlers will be put at a disadvantage.

 

[mikelink45]

I am still curious about Duran and whether he stays a starter or reliever.  He has the stuff to blow batters away.  

[PatPfund]

    Duran has blown people away this spring, and I'd guess he'll be bullpen this year to limit his innings. Love Thielbar's guts, but 3.00 era, 35, and near retirement sounds more like "the Dependable Kenny Jay" than "the Crusher" (to date myself with ancient All Star Wrestling references).

[GNess]

With all the concern about the Twins rotation not a lot of attention has been paid to the bullpen. The RP corps level of effectiveness will be a huge factor in the Twins ability to contend or not..

Side note: Joe Smith should be in this ranking of Top 5..

 

 

 

[rv78]

Agree with Dave. Rocco has shown in the past his inability to manage his pitchers effectively, aka staying with Colome too long last year, then using him again at the end of the year instead of trying to find the teams future closer, aka Alcala. This year the effective usage of the bullpen will only be compounded by the fact the rotation is still a work in progress and he will have to rely on the bullpen even more. Don't care what the experts say, this pitching staff has a TON of question marks going into the season. Sonny Gray is no Jose Berrios, Chris Archer is 5 years removed from a decent season, do I smell another Shoemaker here? Bundy is also 5 years removed from being an effective starter. Ober and Ryan are young guns that look promising but will be hard pressed to pitch 150+ innings. If no more moves are made to help the rotation there will need to be a revolving door for the entire pitching staff cause the bullpen will be over-worked and Rocco will mismanage it for sure.

[RJA]

Just the mention of Colome makes me shudder.  Rogers looks sharp but I agree with PatPfund that Thielbar may not have a bunch left in the tank.  I hope I'm wrong.  Duran could really be an asset if they keep him.

[Alex Schieferdecker]

Have been impressed by the JH triplets, --arel Cotton, --on Romero, and --oan Duran this camp.

My tiers of trust at the moment would be:

Tier 1 (Elite Reliever): Rogers

Tier 2 (Dependable Twins Stalwart): Duffey, Thielbar

Tier 3 (Prove It, Knew To The Club Edition): Cotton, Romero, Smith

Tier 4 (Prove It, Young Player Edition): Alcala, Jax, Moran

[beckmt]

Theilbar had multiple saves with the Twins the first time through.   I would not sleep on Duran also being a big part of this pen.  I think the pen will be fine, just the management of it will have to be watched.

[Karbo]

Looks to me like we will get to see quite a few of our young "prospects" this year both starting and relieving unless the FO gets off their butts and finds a real starter or 2.

[fernandorodneyshat]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I am still curious about Duran and whether he stays a starter or reliever.  He has the stuff to blow batters away.  

Would be the perfect opportunity to get his feet wet in the pen. Hopeful he makes the team

[jmlease1]

The comments on the bullpen in this thread are proof positive of how firmly first impressions can get set in cement. The bullpen for the second half of the season did fine, even after losing Rogers to injury. And that group was cobbled together on the fly, so why exactly are people so down on the bullpen? Right now, it looks like we have a decent set of options to start the season, and the pecking order is going to play itself out as guys rise and fall. (except probably for Rogers, who is arguably the team's best pitcher, but even guys like him can have down years)

I still don't expect this team to have strictly defined roles (i.e., Rogers is the "closer" and pitches the 9th in save situations, Duffey is an 8th inning set-up man, etc). I think they're going to play matchups and use their best relievers against a team's best hitters. More firemen, less strict roles. And that's a good thing, IMHO. there's nothing sacred about the 9th inning.

And some of this is going to depend on what they expect out of Jax & Duran: are they going to be expected to be multi-inning relivers or more like 1 inning guys? I suspect the former. Duran has the stuff to be a late-game, high-leverage pitcher, but the twins probably haven't given up entirely on him starting, so may want to use him in longer stints in his first year in MLB.

Feels like they have enough bodies to cycle through as they decide how they want to deploy pitchers. It might be nice to have one more RHP with extra velocity in his arsenal, but I feel pretty good about the overall group and their ability to get outs.

[ashbury]

The Twins 40-man is thin in the lefty department, so I see Moran making the team, but not among the top arms in this pecking order.  More a LOOGY, modified by the rule on minimum batters faced.  Which is also kind of Thielbar's role (though he's reasonably effective against righties too), so watch out for opponents stacking their batting orders with left-handed hitters.

[LA VIkes Fan]

4 hours ago, PatPfund said:

    Duran has blown people away this spring, and I'd guess he'll be bullpen this year to limit his innings. Love Thielbar's guts, but 3.00 era, 35, and near retirement sounds more like "the Dependable Kenny Jay" than "the Crusher" (to date myself with ancient All Star Wrestling references).

Wow, a Kenny 'Sodbuster' Jay reference.  I think he was also known as the "scrappy" Kenny Jay or was that the scrappy Geroge Godaski?

[jimbo92107]

Jovani Moran could be a surprise. The Padres once had a great closer in Trevor Hoffman, a guy with a 88-90 mph fastball, but a great change-up. Watching Moran's change drop off the table just before it gets to the plate, that reminds me of Hoffman's change. Hoffman threw his mild heater high, his change low, with the exact same motion. Hitters were helpless. Best part was, Hoffman lasted for years and years, never tearing his arm up with 100 mph heat or an arm-twisting slider. 

[Doctor Gast]

I think we can have a tremendous high leverage BP but a lot of it depends on how much they maximize their long relief to keep the short RPs & SP from burning out. 

[old nurse]

5 hours ago, PatPfund said:

    Duran has blown people away this spring, and I'd guess he'll be bullpen this year to limit his innings. Love Thielbar's guts, but 3.00 era, 35, and near retirement sounds more like "the Dependable Kenny Jay" than "the Crusher" (to date myself with ancient All Star Wrestling references).

I hope that the scriptwriters are kinder to the Twins than they were to Kenny Jay

[cheeseheadgophfan]

Heard an interview on KFAN yesterday with Taylor Rogers and he mentioned something about Alcala being injured....anybody know what that's about?????

[mikelink45]

Today MLB.com listed the five pitchers who will rule the ninth inning.  The top two have Twins lineage - Hendriks and Pressly.  At least Graderol and Chargois are not on the list!  Rogers is not there either. 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, jimbo92107 said:

Jovani Moran could be a surprise. The Padres once had a great closer in Trevor Hoffman, a guy with a 88-90 mph fastball, but a great change-up. Watching Moran's change drop off the table just before it gets to the plate, that reminds me of Hoffman's change. Hoffman threw his mild heater high, his change low, with the exact same motion. Hitters were helpless. Best part was, Hoffman lasted for years and years, never tearing his arm up with 100 mph heat or an arm-twisting slider. 

I love comparing Twins prospects to Hall of Famers, it works out so often. j/k

Hoffman didn't start being good until he was 26, so Moran is right on pace or maybe ahead since he turns 25 in less than a month.

[Bruce Lysne1]

I think the BP and lineup are going to be fine until injuries hit. This is a weak rotation.  Who is going to fill it? What happens when injuries hit? I hope they prove me wrong but I'm not making October plans. 

[jmlease1]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

The Twins 40-man is thin in the lefty department, so I see Moran making the team, but not among the top arms in this pecking order.  More a LOOGY, modified by the rule on minimum batters faced.  Which is also kind of Thielbar's role (though he's reasonably effective against righties too), so watch out for opponents stacking their batting orders with left-handed hitters.

Moran is not a LOOGY, though: his changeup makes him effective against righties too. His issue is whether or not he can control things well enough to not issue a million walks. I think he's got a bright future and personally i would have him in the bullpen to start the year (especially if we carry 14-15 pitcher), but I wouldn't limit him to just going after the toughest of lefties. He's got more than that. (and I looooove his changeup.)

[The Mad King]

I like Alcala a lot. I've noticed with him today one of the keys is confidence. 2020 and early 21 you could see his lack of it on his face. But somewhere around June last year something clicked and you could see the confidence on his face and his pitching improved. 

I have faith in Rogers and Thielbar. I hope we get to see Duran come out of the pen a bit this season.

[PatPfund]

46 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Wow, a Kenny 'Sodbuster' Jay reference.  I think he was also known as the "scrappy" Kenny Jay or was that the scrappy Geroge Godaski?

Kenny was just Dependable in my days; his new-fangled Sodbuster name was a hit, though! I think you are right about Godaski being Scrappy, which probably meant that he and Kenny were fodder for the headliners to work over on TV. 

[Rosterman]

The pain is the Twins will need some long-relief arms. It was hoped Thorpe would be one, but looks like it will be Jax and Wilder to egt one thru a batting order if need be. There's also a couple of opportunities to piggy-back Bundy and Archer in April. How soon can a starter like Ryan and Ober get to six innings at least? Or, the bigegr question, can Ober and Ryan do 30+ starts in 2022?

 

 

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Moran is not a LOOGY, though: his changeup makes him effective against righties too. His issue is whether or not he can control things well enough to not issue a million walks. I think he's got a bright future and personally i would have him in the bullpen to start the year (especially if we carry 14-15 pitcher), but I wouldn't limit him to just going after the toughest of lefties. He's got more than that. (and I looooove his changeup.)

Fair enough.  And I hope that's how it plays out.  (His splits last year would bear that out.)  I guess I was just figuring that his initial usage pattern might tend toward the LOOGYish, as they break a young pitcher into the majors.  But with only 3 lefties on the entire 40-man, LOOGY might be too much of a luxury and they'll just go ahead and see what he's got.

[h2oface]

11 hours ago, RJA said:

Just the mention of Colome makes me shudder.  Rogers looks sharp but I agree with PatPfund that Thielbar may not have a bunch left in the tank.  I hope I'm wrong.  Duran could really be an asset if they keep him.

you know you really miss him...... ?

https://www.mlb.com/rockies/video/bud-black-discusses-alex-colome?t=spring-training

[South Dakota Tom]

For the old man record, it was George “Scrap Iron” Gadaski.  I remember a Saturday morning when he got to beat Nick Bockwinkle.  Our jaws dropped.

[LA VIkes Fan]

Thats right, it was George “scrap iron” Godiski. He and Kenny could never beat the Vachon brothers - Butcher and Mad Dog- in a tag team match.