Twins 2022 Position Analysis: Right Field

[Nick Nelson]

For five straight seasons, Max Kepler has been Minnesota's starting right fielder on Opening Day. It's the longest-running streak of stability at any position on the team. 

He's about to stretch it to six, but there's a growing sense Kepler's days with the Twins are numbered. What's next in right?

Projected Starter: Max Kepler
Likely Backup: Alex Kirilloff
Depth: Trevor Larnach, Jake Cave
Prospects: Matt Wallner, Kala'i Rosario

THE GOOD

It's the same story as usual with Max Kepler in right field: stellar defense and so-so offense. It's easy to focus on the latter, especially in the wake of a truly lackluster season at the plate, but the value of Kepler's glove should not be ignored. 

Statcast had him in the 95th percentile for Outs Above Average last year, ranking second among right fielders (behind only Manuel Margot) with eight. FanGraphs had him sixth at the position in Defensive Runs Saved, with nine. No matter the source or metric, Kepler is a top-tier defensive player in right, bringing a center fielder's range to the position along with a solid arm and good instincts. 

When both he and Buxton are in the outfield, it's extremely difficult for opposing hitters to land a fly ball anywhere in their expansive territory, which will certainly be appreciated by young fly-ball pitchers like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. 

At the plate, Kepler is not great – especially given the offense-oriented position he plays – but far from horrible. His 2021 season was frustrating because it harkened back to his unfulfilling pre-2019 norm, but not because it was abjectly terrible. Kepler's baseline is "slightly below average hitter" (he's posted an OPS+ between 95 and 98 in four of five full seasons), but that's also been his floor. Even at his worst, he'll contribute enough home runs and walks to be reasonably productive.

At his best, Kepler is a legitimate star. He hit 36 home runs in 2019 while holding his own against left-hander pitchers. With a 4.5 fWAR he was our pick for team MVP. It'd be easier to gravitate toward the possibility of that upside returning if we'd ever seen it outside of one brilliant, juiced-ball-aided season. Alas, he's still only 29.

THE BAD

In his first four MLB seasons, Kepler's home run totals jumped from 17 to 19 to 20 to 36. It appeared he had turned a corner, especially when he opened up the very next one with homers in first two at-bats against Lucas Giolito. And yet, since that first game of 2020, Kepler has managed only 26 home runs with a .410 slugging percentage in 169 games. 

Among 29 right fielders with 600+ PA over this span, Kepler ranks 25th in wOBA and wRC+. He's a poor hitter at a position with a high offensive bar, and unfortunately Rocco Baldelli has magnified the negative impact by routinely having Kepler hit at key spots in the lineup, as well as by starting him against lefties. Over the past two seasons, the outfielder has slashed .148/.236/.235 against southpaws. He needs to be platooned.

Unfortunately, the Twins don't have a natural fit to platoon with Kepler in right. Brent Rooker could theoretically fill that role, but Baldelli doesn't like using Rooker in the outfield and seems to prefer him in left when he does. Also, Rooker has hardly shown to be a lefty masher, with a .222/.325/.375 line in 83 plate appearances.

Kyle Garlick was supposed to fill a role like this for the Twins last year, and it's very possible he could resurface quickly, although he's not currently on the 40-man roster. Otherwise, as you look through the right field depth, both short-term and long-term, you find a whole lot of lefty bats: Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Jake Cave, Mark Contreras, Matt Wallner, Willie Joe Garry.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The shortage of viable platoon-mates means the Twins are probably staying committed to Kepler as an everyday starter for the time being. As long as he keeps providing premium defense in right field, the team can live with his sub-par offensive production at the position. He's under contract for $6.5 million this year, and $8.5 million in 2023, with a $10 million team option for the following year. 

I'd be very surprised if he plays through the end of his contract in Minnesota.

Catch Up on the Rest of Our 2022 Previews:

• Position Analysis: Catcher
• Position Analysis: First Base
• Position Analysis: Second Base
• Position Analysis: Third Base
• Position Analysis: Shortstop
• Position Analysis: Left Field
• Position Analysis: Center Field

 

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[ashbury]

If Jake Cave or Kyle Garlick is an answer, I refuse to consider the question.

Aside from that, here's hoping that Max breaks through to the next level.  It's not too late for a career year!

[LA VIkes Fan]

Kepler will start in RF until Larnach or Celestino is ready to take over. Unfortunately his contact is too rich for the 4th OF spot, so he will then have to be cut, traded, or his contract re-done.

[Nashvilletwin]

Agree with the conclusion. Unless Max can regain his form at the plate, he will be gone when some combo (note: it will take two because the first gets LF) of Martin, Larnach, Celestino, Lewis, Wallner, et al emerge as true starting corner outfielders. Kiriloff, btw, should be our long term 1st baseman. 

Actually, it’s really too bad. Max is very likeable and his D is great. I hope he has a great season.

[Dave The Dastardly]

Ahh, the search for perfection! If only we could field eight perfect position players... You know, like all those other teams. I'll take Kepler's defense over 30 points on his batting average any day. Him and Buxton on the field together take 30 points off the opposing team's batting average. Personally, I won't worry about Max until he falls below the Mendoza Line.

The problem is left field guys, not right field.

 

[John Bonnes]

I wonder if the new rules banning the shift might help Kepler considerably starting in 2023. 

[chpettit19]

8 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Kepler will start in RF until Larnach or Celestino is ready to take over. Unfortunately his contact is too rich for the 4th OF spot, so he will then have to be cut, traded, or his contract re-done.

Baseball contracts are guaranteed so he most certainly won't be cut as the Twins would have to pay him anyways, and he'd have no reason to re-do it so the only option would be a salary dump trade.

[chpettit19]

25 minutes ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Ahh, the search for perfection! If only we could field eight perfect position players... You know, like all those other teams. I'll take Kepler's defense over 30 points on his batting average any day. Him and Buxton on the field together take 30 points off the opposing team's batting average. Personally, I won't worry about Max until he falls below the Mendoza Line.

The problem is left field guys, not right field.

 

He's been worth 2.4, 1.9, 3.5, 4.0, 1.1, and 2.1 bWAR since he came up for good in 2016. 1.3, 1.5, 2.7, 4.5, 1.0, 1.9 fWAR. Teams generally look to get 1 WAR for $8M. He's making 6.75 and 8.5 this year and next. He's been worth those numbers every year of his career (even the shortened 2020 season when he reached the 1.0 WAR plateau in just 48 games). I think people underestimate the impact he has on the game. I agree with others that the real problem is Rocco trying to force him into the leadoff spot or the heart of the order. If he's hitting 7-9 in the order fans would be less upset about his batting numbers since the expectation wouldn't be that he's one of the stars on the team.

You can absolutely win with Max Kepler in right field. Especially if the no shift rule in 2023 results in a boost to his BA.

[Drew]

23 minutes ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Ahh, the search for perfection! If only we could field eight perfect position players... You know, like all those other teams. I'll take Kepler's defense over 30 points on his batting average any day. Him and Buxton on the field together take 30 points off the opposing team's batting average. Personally, I won't worry about Max until he falls below the Mendoza Line.

The problem is left field guys, not right field.

 

Well he only cleared the Mendoza line by 5 hits so be prepared to worry. Also the problem can be both! 

[Whitey333]

Great article as usual Nick.  I agree that at some point he will probably be traded but I'm actually thinking it may be some sort of a come back year for him.  Maybe 15-20 home runs and 60-75 RBI while playing solid right field.  Too bad he can't pitch.

[mikelink45]

It is interesting to read about LF and RF in these analyses.  I believe there was Akil Baddoo and LaMonte Wade in the system and they are now established starters for Detroit and the Giants.  Meanwhile we kept Cave.  But you really hit on the key complaint - Baldelli put him in a spot where his weaknesses were magnified - leadoff where we want hits, middle of the lineup where we want power.  As someone else said, as a 7 - 9 hitter we would not have been as anxious about his production.  But in the long run RF needs to produce more. 

[PopRiveter]

31 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

He's been worth 2.4, 1.9, 3.5, 4.0, 1.1, and 2.1 bWAR since he came up for good in 2016. 1.3, 1.5, 2.7, 4.5, 1.0, 1.9 fWAR. Teams generally look to get 1 WAR for $8M. He's making 6.75 and 8.5 this year and next. He's been worth those numbers every year of his career (even the shortened 2020 season when he reached the 1.0 WAR plateau in just 48 games). I think people underestimate the impact he has on the game. I agree with others that the real problem is Rocco trying to force him into the leadoff spot or the heart of the order. If he's hitting 7-9 in the order fans would be less upset about his batting numbers since the expectation wouldn't be that he's one of the stars on the team.

You can absolutely win with Max Kepler in right field. Especially if the no shift rule in 2023 results in a boost to his BA.

This helps me put his production in context. I've been frustrated primarily with his extreme low batting averages. I'm old enough to care about that.

He looks athletic, balanced, and in-control during at-bats. It always seems like he should be one of the better hitters on the team and you should be able to expect an 800-or-better OPS, But he's only produced like that one time.

With a lot of players who underperform, you can imagine some adjustment or better coaching might unleash more of their talent, but he looks like he's already doing everything right.

Apparently, I am not giving him enough credit for his fielding or those WAR values would be lower. 

His fielding is excellent. He seems like a good element in the clubhouse. He stays healthy. He doesn't make dumb mistakes. He sometimes contributes on offense. Until he's blocking an undeniable talent, I guess I shouldn't complain.

Go Max! You're just fine I guess! 

 

 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, John Bonnes said:

I wonder if the new rules banning the shift might help Kepler considerably starting in 2023. 

Yeah, he's definitely someone who may greatly benefit from that rule.

But lately, I've been more concerned with Kepler's inability to shift balls over the fence.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, PopRiveter said:

This helps me put his production in context. I've been frustrated primarily with his extreme low batting averages. I'm old enough to care about that.

He looks athletic, balanced, and in-control during at-bats. It always seems like he should be one of the better hitters on the team and you should be able to expect an 800-or-better OPS, But he's only produced like that one time.

With a lot of players who underperform, you can imagine some adjustment or better coaching might unleash more of their talent, but he looks like he's already doing everything right.

Apparently, I am not giving him enough credit for his fielding or those WAR values would be lower. 

His fielding is excellent. He seems like a good element in the clubhouse. He stays healthy. He doesn't make dumb mistakes. He sometimes contributes on offense. Until he's blocking an undeniable talent, I guess I shouldn't complain.

Go Max! You're just fine I guess! 

 

 

He's one of the most interesting hitters in baseball. His batted ball data is all above average. His baseball savant page is full of red (good) numbers. But he gets no hits. It's quite interesting. In a small sample size (one season let's say) most front offices would view it as bad luck and see him as a buy low candidate due for positive regression to the mean, but he's done it for years so it just seems to be who he is. So your eyes really aren't lying to you about how he appears to be in at bats.

Next year will be very interesting for him and I hope he's still on the Twins for it even if he's the 4th OFer because younger guys have come on the scene. As the left side of a platoon with no more shifts he could be quite good. But for now I want his glove in RF as much as possible with the question marks on the mound. Give them all the help we can.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

He's one of the most interesting hitters in baseball. His batted ball data is all above average. His baseball savant page is full of red (good) numbers. But he gets no hits. It's quite interesting. In a small sample size (one season let's say) most front offices would view it as bad luck and see him as a buy low candidate due for positive regression to the mean, but he's done it for years so it just seems to be who he is. So your eyes really aren't lying to you about how he appears to be in at bats.

Next year will be very interesting for him and I hope he's still on the Twins for it even if he's the 4th OFer because younger guys have come on the scene. As the left side of a platoon with no more shifts he could be quite good. But for now I want his glove in RF as much as possible with the question marks on the mound. Give them all the help we can.

At a certain point it stops being luck and it starts being who you are as a player. Kepler has been banging way too many balls into the shift and had too much weak contact for his current approach at the plate. He's still not a terrible player: it's decent (if frustrating) offense coupled with quality defense and some positional flexibility that makes him a solid starter...but he's no longer showing much in the way of star potential. (Bonnes is probably right: banning the shift will help him to some degree)

Looking at his Savant numbers and there really isn't that much red...more like pink. His StatCast hasn't had any red on it for years. He doesn't have any blue on him, but he's also missing a lot of the deep red that shows up for really impactful players.

Kepler is worth what he's being paid, but unless he makes some adjustments, this is who he is as a hitter. 

I suppose Rooker is still depth for the team at RF for now? He's not a great OF at either corner, but he can survive out there if he's hitting (which I don't expect much from that end either at this point; he doesn't make enough contact for his prodigious power to play, so again: make the adjustment Mr. Rooker or you will not be long for the roster). There's some good options coming up for RF in the system (Wallner & Rosario both have real potential) but it's a little thin right now. I suspect it would be a shuffle of Kirilloff to RF and Larnach to LF, but maybe they'd try Larnach there straight up.

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

At a certain point it stops being luck and it starts being who you are as a player. Kepler has been banging way too many balls into the shift and had too much weak contact for his current approach at the plate. He's still not a terrible player: it's decent (if frustrating) offense coupled with quality defense and some positional flexibility that makes him a solid starter...but he's no longer showing much in the way of star potential. (Bonnes is probably right: banning the shift will help him to some degree)

Looking at his Savant numbers and there really isn't that much red...more like pink. His StatCast hasn't had any red on it for years. He doesn't have any blue on him, but he's also missing a lot of the deep red that shows up for really impactful players.

Kepler is worth what he's being paid, but unless he makes some adjustments, this is who he is as a hitter. 

I suppose Rooker is still depth for the team at RF for now? He's not a great OF at either corner, but he can survive out there if he's hitting (which I don't expect much from that end either at this point; he doesn't make enough contact for his prodigious power to play, so again: make the adjustment Mr. Rooker or you will not be long for the roster). There's some good options coming up for RF in the system (Wallner & Rosario both have real potential) but it's a little thin right now. I suspect it would be a shuffle of Kirilloff to RF and Larnach to LF, but maybe they'd try Larnach there straight up.

Yeah, I stated that in a small sample size it'd be considered bad luck but he's done it for so long that it's now who he is. I'm not attempting to claim he's likely to see a drastic jump in his BA (until next year maybe). But a player who is above average in literally every batted ball offensive category should be impactful. I think you're really underselling what it means to even be "pink" in every category while mixing it with "deep red" defensive ratings. If you showed someone his baseball savant page and asked them to predict what sort of slash line they have they'd guess much better than Kepler. It's what makes him so interesting, and disappointing.

I'm not a Rooker or Wallner believer. I'll take Wallner's glove over Rooker's, but to me he's just a left handed Rooker with the bat. Don't think either of them hit enough to be a DH or to make up for their lack of glove in the OF. I do hope they prove me wrong, though. Rosario is intriguing to me. I want Kirilloff at 1B full time starting in 2023 (if not part way through 2022). But overall the corner OF spots that were viewed as a real strength of this organization the last couple years are looking far more questionable now. But they're far easier spots to fill externally than SS or SP. I'd love to see them get crazy and go sign Conforto.

[TwinsAce]

13 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm not a Rooker or Wallner believer. I'll take Wallner's glove over Rooker's, but to me he's just a left handed Rooker with the bat. Don't think either of them hit enough to be a DH or to make up for their lack of glove in the OF. I do hope they prove me wrong, though. Rosario is intriguing to me. I want Kirilloff at 1B full time starting in 2023 (if not part way through 2022). But overall the corner OF spots that were viewed as a real strength of this organization the last couple years are looking far more questionable now. But they're far easier spots to fill externally than SS or SP. I'd love to see them get crazy and go sign Conforto.

The one thing I do like about Wallner in the OF is that arm.  I'd imagine he would handle RF pretty well for the Twins with the smaller section to worry about and the ability to fire strikes from the corner.  Hopefully he hits though!
The fact that there were rumors on Conforto and others seems to indicate the Twins would be willing to do a surprise signing in the coming years in the OF, similarly to Correa at SS. 

[jmlease1]

27 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, I stated that in a small sample size it'd be considered bad luck but he's done it for so long that it's now who he is. I'm not attempting to claim he's likely to see a drastic jump in his BA (until next year maybe). But a player who is above average in literally every batted ball offensive category should be impactful. I think you're really underselling what it means to even be "pink" in every category while mixing it with "deep red" defensive ratings. If you showed someone his baseball savant page and asked them to predict what sort of slash line they have they'd guess much better than Kepler. It's what makes him so interesting, and disappointing.

I'm not a Rooker or Wallner believer. I'll take Wallner's glove over Rooker's, but to me he's just a left handed Rooker with the bat. Don't think either of them hit enough to be a DH or to make up for their lack of glove in the OF. I do hope they prove me wrong, though. Rosario is intriguing to me. I want Kirilloff at 1B full time starting in 2023 (if not part way through 2022). But overall the corner OF spots that were viewed as a real strength of this organization the last couple years are looking far more questionable now. But they're far easier spots to fill externally than SS or SP. I'd love to see them get crazy and go sign Conforto.

Fair. They're pretty comparable a the plate but I do think Wallner has better odds of being functional in RF. The arm is excellent and he probably moves better than Rooker? This is an interesting year for Wallner: he did well last season in high A, but was essentially a year behind because of the pandemic. I'm never entirely sure where to place the AFL, but I usually think of it as around AA in terms of competition? And Wallner did great there, even with the barrage of Ks. We may not know if Wallner can make enough contact to be a quality bat until (if?) he gets to MLB. So far Rooker has not been able to adjust and is facing his last chance here at 26.

For me there's no reason to move on from kepler after this year unless it's a really good deal; I'm fine with running him out there for the next two seasons and enjoying his defense while hoping beyond hope that he adjusts a little better at the plate. I also tend to look at the corner OF spots as one position with two slots, rather than strictly defining it as RF/LF. Maybe 2023 is Kepler & Larnach as the prime pair, with Martin as depth. Maybe it's Martin & Kepler, with Celestino as the depth guy? 2024 could be Wallner & Larnach, with Martin as a 4th OF who gets plenty of time playing all over.

we're not as deep as we might like in guys who are locked in or rising up as sure things, but the cupboard isn't bare either.

[Mike Sixel]

2 ish WAR from a medium paid player is fine. That's his "floor", give or take. I'd bet on 2.5 WAR this year, and people will still think he's not good enough. 

[HerbieFan]

On 3/31/2022 at 8:28 AM, John Bonnes said:

I wonder if the new rules banning the shift might help Kepler considerably starting in 2023. 

This was my thought all along!  Was hoping to see the rule change for 2022 and thought of Kepler immediately.