Is 2022 finally the year we see another Francisco Liriano?

[Brock Beauchamp]

What I mean is that Francisco Liriano stepped into a Twins uniform and pitched.... well. Very, very well.

The dominance of the 2000s Twins was largely fueled by their ability to regularly call up a young pitcher and have that pitcher actually contribute to winning baseball games in their rookie season. Liriano was a beast. Scott Baker pitched to a 133 ERA+ his rookie season. Kevin Slowey was just slightly below average. Carlos Silva had a 112 ERA+ the year he came to Minnesota.

Whereas a hallmark of the 2010s Twins was utter and complete failure from their rookie pitchers. Trevor May had stats that resembled a dumpster fire. And somehow Jose Berríos managed to be worse than May. We could run through the list of pitchers but it'd just make us all nauseous.

With Winder, Woods-Richardson, Balazovic, and Sands all potentially making their debut as starters in 2022, is this the year we finally see a rookie pitcher don a Twins uniform and not spend a season falling on their face?

[Vanimal46]

We’re well overdue to see it happen. Looks like Winder will get the first opportunity to impress as a rookie and he looks the part. 

[Vanimal46]

I’m very intrigued to see Duran out of the pen as well. An Alcala/Duran/Rogers trio in late innings sounds promising. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

is this the year we finally see a rookie pitcher don a Twins uniform and not spend a season falling on their face?

If that's the threshold (and not Liriano-level performance), I'd say Ober did it last year.

2019-2020, Dobnak would seem to fit the bill too.

It was less frequent in the "dark years", although Tyler Duffey's rookie year was a pretty good match for Scott Baker's. Adalberto Mejia's rookie year seemed about as cromulent as Kevin Slowey's. Nothing as valuable as Blackburn or Duensing, though!

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 minutes ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

If that's the threshold (and not Liriano-level performance), I'd say Ober did it last year.

2019-2020, Dobnak would seem to fit the bill too.

It was less frequent in the "dark years", although Tyler Duffey's rookie year was a pretty good match for Scott Baker's. Adalberto Mejia's rookie year seemed about as cromulent as Kevin Slowey's. Nothing as valuable as Blackburn or Duensing, though!

Ah, good point about Ober. How’d I forget him in just one season?

[Otto von Ballpark]

3 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Ah, good point about Ober. How’d I forget him in just one season?

Ober's stature is easy to overlook.

[ashbury]

16 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Ah, good point about Ober. How’d I forget him in just one season?

Check the Where Are They Now thread to see what he's up to.

[tony&rodney]

Ober and winder seem solid and Ryan might just be good too. That's three fun guys to watch, but Francisco Liriano had more talent and tools than any current Twins player has now (prospects) or had (Gray, Archer) in their prime. 

We can look for some good outings though and maybe three guys do well. that would be nice.

[Twodogs]

I think as fans we need to be a little bit careful.  People are very impatient nowadays.  I mean in today's game would Frank Viola have gotten a 2nd chance?  Like he did back in the 80's??  Take a look at his first years and that dumpster fire.  I think in rebuilding years, it's best to get guys up when they are really young.  Then if/when they crash and burn they have a chance to go down, because they are young enough, and work on what they learned at the big league level, then when they come back up they have a better chance of succeeding.   It seems like the Twins wait so long to bring guys up that if they aren't successful right away they punt on them because they are already like 25-26.  So either they slide into a bullpen role or they fade away.  Now in years where the team is a favorite to do well they probably should go with more veterans.   

[wsnydes]

If it's going to happen, the odds are certainly the best they've been in some time.

[wsnydes]

12 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Ober's stature is easy to overlook.

Yeah, I'm still trying to figure out why there was a solar eclipse every fifth day last year.  Probably just a coincidence ?.

[TwinsDr2021]

5 hours ago, Twodogs said:

I think as fans we need to be a little bit careful.  People are very impatient nowadays.  I mean in today's game would Frank Viola have gotten a 2nd chance?  Like he did back in the 80's??  Take a look at his first years and that dumpster fire.  I think in rebuilding years, it's best to get guys up when they are really young.  Then if/when they crash and burn they have a chance to go down, because they are young enough, and work on what they learned at the big league level, then when they come back up they have a better chance of succeeding.   It seems like the Twins wait so long to bring guys up that if they aren't successful right away they punt on them because they are already like 25-26.  So either they slide into a bullpen role or they fade away.  Now in years where the team is a favorite to do well they probably should go with more veterans.   

In today's game Viola would never been allowed to pitch the way he did in 82 and 83, he averaged almost 6 innings in 82 and over 6 innings in 83. He would be babied just like the rest of the pitchers are and never would have been allowed to average over 250 innings a year and start 35 games for the next 10 years.

His rookie season he started 22 games and pitched 126 innings at age 22, compared to Ober (26) who started 20 games and pitched 92.1 innings. and the ERA's are 5,21 and 4.19, this isn't say anything but lets not say what Viola did was a dumpster fire. With that said there is no real reason to not have Duran and Winder in MPLS to start the season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

6 hours ago, Twodogs said:

I think as fans we need to be a little bit careful.  People are very impatient nowadays.  I mean in today's game would Frank Viola have gotten a 2nd chance?  Like he did back in the 80's??  Take a look at his first years and that dumpster fire.  I think in rebuilding years, it's best to get guys up when they are really young.  Then if/when they crash and burn they have a chance to go down, because they are young enough, and work on what they learned at the big league level, then when they come back up they have a better chance of succeeding.   It seems like the Twins wait so long to bring guys up that if they aren't successful right away they punt on them because they are already like 25-26.  So either they slide into a bullpen role or they fade away.  Now in years where the team is a favorite to do well they probably should go with more veterans.   

It's not about being impatient, it's about the desire to see something different than being terrible through a rookie season. No one called for the demotion of Berríos in 2016, no one will call for the demotion of Winder if he's not great.... but it sure would be nice if he was great. As Twins fans, we sometimes need to remember that rookie pitchers don't have to be terrible.

[terrydactyls]

32 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

It's not about being impatient, it's about the desire to see something different than being terrible through a rookie season. No one called for the demotion of Berríos in 2016, no one will call for the demotion of Winder if he's not great.... but it sure would be nice if he was great. As Twins fans, we sometimes need to remember that rookie pitchers don't have to be terrible.

I'm willing to predict that if Winder gets off to a bad start, there will be plenty of Twins Daily regular posters who will be calling for his immediate removal from Minneapolis.  Personally, I would hope he doesn't get sent down but if that happens, I will look at it as a chance to make the necessary improvements to rejoin the Twins in August/September.

[Twodogs]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

In today's game Viola would never been allowed to pitch the way he did in 82 and 83, he averaged almost 6 innings in 82 and over 6 innings in 83. He would be babied just like the rest of the pitchers are and never would have been allowed to average over 250 innings a year and start 35 games for the next 10 years.

His rookie season he started 22 games and pitched 126 innings at age 22, compared to Ober (26) who started 20 games and pitched 92.1 innings. and the ERA's are 5,21 and 4.19, this isn't say anything but lets not say what Viola did was a dumpster fire. With that said there is no real reason to not have Duran and Winder in MPLS to start the season.

I'm not trying to compare innings from back then to today.  What I'm saying is that had they continued to hold Viola down in the minors and didn't give him a shot until he was 26 and he had a season like his first one he would have been done.  He wouldn't have gotten any more chances.  I think, especially in seasons where the Twins realistically aren't going to compete for a title, that these young guys need to be brought up when they are 22, like Viola.  Give them a chance to fail, often times athletes learn how to do things better from failure.  They work on the things that went wrong.  But that's hard to do with a 26 year old as they are quickly passing their prime.  So I'm saying let these guys have a chance.  If they struggle don't be impatient, give them that chance to struggle and learn.  Holding them down in the minors until they are 26 is ridiculous, at least to me.  Give them a shot is all I'm saying.

[Vanimal46]

6 minutes ago, Twodogs said:

I'm not trying to compare innings from back then to today.  What I'm saying is that had they continued to hold Viola down in the minors and didn't give him a shot until he was 26 and he had a season like his first one he would have been done.  He wouldn't have gotten any more chances.  I think, especially in seasons where the Twins realistically aren't going to compete for a title, that these young guys need to be brought up when they are 22, like Viola.  Give them a chance to fail, often times athletes learn how to do things better from failure.  They work on the things that went wrong.  But that's hard to do with a 26 year old as they are quickly passing their prime.  So I'm saying let these guys have a chance.  If they struggle don't be impatient, give them that chance to struggle and learn.  Holding them down in the minors until they are 26 is ridiculous, at least to me.  Give them a shot is all I'm saying.

It’s not like they intentionally held Winder and other pitchers in the minors until their mid 20s. No minor leagues at all in 2020 delayed everyone’s timeline. Winder would have certainly been a call up last year had he not hurt his shoulder and get shut down the last 2 months of the season. 

[Theo Tollefson]

I think Winder will pan out well in the rotation when he gets the call up to the Majors. He likely just needs a few starts with the Saints to adjust himself for the season. I am fully sold on Doran being a reliever for his career, maybe even having him develop into a closer role, even though Rocco has never dubbed a reliever as the official closer. 

[Obsvr]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

It's not about being impatient, it's about the desire to see something different than being terrible through a rookie season. No one called for the demotion of Berríos in 2016, no one will call for the demotion of Winder if he's not great.... but it sure would be nice if he was great. As Twins fans, we sometimes need to remember that rookie pitchers don't have to be terrible.

lol what?  This is TD...if he doesn't crush it in the first few starts, this board will want him DFA'd.

[Tim]

I think Joe Ryan could be the guy that dominates. Forget the stuff, he racks up K's and no one has been able to figure him quite out his entire career.

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, Obsvr said:

lol what?  This is TD...if he doesn't crush it in the first few starts, this board will want him DFA'd.

There are ridiculous outliers in every scenario. The majority of Twins fans will be patient enough with him if he struggles.

But that's aside from the point of the post, which is how long it has been since we saw a rookie pitcher truly succeed.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Fangraphs has a "Rookies" filter. Not sure how accurate it is (and it obviously won't include someone like Carlos Silva circa 2004), but here are the Twins rookie starting pitcher marks from 2001-2021.

You can look at GS and IP to see how much the Twins relied on rookie starters, and ERA- (lower is better) to estimate how effective they were.

Twins didn't rely on true rookie starters that much until Liriano in 2006, then again in 2008. Got solid performances both years, though.

The 2012 Twins relied on rookie starters the most, and they actually did fairly well that year, but the years around that were pretty rough.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Here are the Twins individual rookie starters in that 2001-2021 period.

I guess they are counting both 2011-2012 for Scott Diamond, and both 2014-2015 for Trevor May. Must be a career 50 IP threshold, ignoring the additional  "games on the active roster" criteria for the Rookie of the Year award.

Berrios had the worst ERA- among these "rookies" with more than 5 starts.

[MMMordabito]

I'll echo the comments above that the Twins are definitely due, but Liriano set the bar extremely high.

I'll get excited if we can just get a couple more Ober performances that then improve in the following years (including Ober).  

The pitching that this FO has drafted and acquired is actually looking up.  Ober was from the 2017 draft, Winder was from the 2018 draft, Canterino and Varland were from the 2019 draft.  If just those four pan out along with the Ryan, Duran and Alcala acquisitions, I guess the promise of the pitching pipeline will be coming together.  

[Twodogs]

10 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

It's not about being impatient, it's about the desire to see something different than being terrible through a rookie season. No one called for the demotion of Berríos in 2016, no one will call for the demotion of Winder if he's not great.... but it sure would be nice if he was great. As Twins fans, we sometimes need to remember that rookie pitchers don't have to be terrible.

Oh of course, I'd love to see the next Doc Gooden step on the mound.  It would be great if a few of these young guys panned out.  All I was saying is I don't want the Twins to give up on them so early as they do sometimes.

[TopGunn#22]

I think Otto Von Ballpark needs more rec's JUST for using the word "cromulent" in a sentence !  Way to go Otto !!  

[gunnarthor]

On 3/30/2022 at 3:59 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

What I mean is that Francisco Liriano stepped into a Twins uniform and pitched.... well. Very, very well.

The dominance of the 2000s Twins was largely fueled by their ability to regularly call up a young pitcher and have that pitcher actually contribute to winning baseball games in their rookie season. Liriano was a beast. Scott Baker pitched to a 133 ERA+ his rookie season. Kevin Slowey was just slightly below average. Carlos Silva had a 112 ERA+ the year he came to Minnesota.

Whereas a hallmark of the 2010s Twins was utter and complete failure from their rookie pitchers. Trevor May had stats that resembled a dumpster fire. And somehow Jose Berríos managed to be worse than May. We could run through the list of pitchers but it'd just make us all nauseous.

With Winder, Woods-Richardson, Balazovic, and Sands all potentially making their debut as starters in 2022, is this the year we finally see a rookie pitcher don a Twins uniform and not spend a season falling on their face?

One of the reasons the 2000s Twins were so fun to watch was because they relied on their minor league system to get them starting pitchers. In that decade, they had only 100 or so starts from FA pitchers, and that counts Radke re-signing with us. Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, Garza, etc all had their moments and I'm sure that the Pohlad's hired Falvey to replicate that success. I don't think he can but we will see.

None of the pitchers we have are nearly as acclaimed as Liriano was. Before his injury, he was outpitching Santana. That's a tough comparison. But it's possible we have enough arms that could pitch 100 innings at 100 ERA+ or so. That would be a big improvement over last year. I think Winder looks like the closest. We'll see.

[Otto von Ballpark]

5 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I think Otto Von Ballpark needs more rec's JUST for using the word "cromulent" in a sentence !  Way to go Otto !!  

I only hope my use of the word can embiggen the vocabularies of others.

[cmoss84]

I sat behind home plate to watch Francisco pitch when he was a rook. This is when Johan was Johan. 

....Francisco was...BETTER!!!

That injury killed me.  

[Thegrin]

Ryan did well, and that was a HUGE Red Flag for me.  The coaches know these pitchers better than I do, so I guess if they think he should start for us, I guess I have to have faith.  In any case, Ryan will never be looked at in the same way we looked at Franky, because of those 5 games he pitched in '21.