Front Office Signals Starting Rotation Might Be Complete- Should Fans Buy In?

[terrydactyls]

8 hours ago, Linus said:

Yea it does. This is pro sports. You don’t get consolation prizes or participation medals. You get judged by the results, nothing else  

 

 

 

 

 

I agree with your point.  The comment you reacted to was about if his statement was really a fact or his interpretation of past events.  So I didn't think it made any sense as far as the discussion was concerned.  And by the way, I think participation medals are the stupidest thing ever introduced to youth sports.

[jmlease1]

11 hours ago, KnoblauchWasFramed said:

"win 84ish games" !?!?!?!   That's some top flight comedy right there.  Right now, this is a 90+ loss team.  Last year's rotation was considerably better than this one, and they lost 89 games.   And that's not even talking about the bullpen.

Was it, though? You could make the argument that it was a more accomplished rotation going into the season with Berrios, Maeda, Pineda, Happ, and Shoemaker...but the rotation last season was dreadful and had zero depth. Berrios was the only one who was good and healthy (until getting traded) and even Maeda had a rotten start and overall was a below average pitcher even before having to shut it down.

We gave 58 starts to pitchers with ERAs of 6+ (ok, I'm rounding up on Charlie Barnes' 5.92). Frankly, it'll take some real effort for Bundy and Archer to be worse than Happ & Shoemaker. Pineda was pretty good, but his various injuries limited him to 109 innings. Maeda had an ERA+ of only 91. I think Ober and Ryan will improve on that (YMMV on by how much). The issue is Berrios was better than any of them (even Gray, who was more like Pineda in terms of effectiveness, even if he was a bit healthier). 

The floor is higher on the rotation from last year because a) the FA signings last season were so brutally bad, b) the depth behind them was also dreadful (until we brought up Ober & Ryan), c) this year's signings are likely to be less awful, and d) the depth behind them is more talented. Bring up the floor on the rotation and this team improves pretty quickly. Top end starters have more impact in the playoffs, but you don't even get there if you don't raise the floor.

[mikelink45]

3 hours ago, h2oface said:

Absolutely. They blew it. This is what we have. I don't mind if the yankee visitors flame out too. Always the bridesmaid, never the bride when it comes to pitching. If we have a good one.... then they get rid of him. Even if our bats (which recently weren't rated that great compared to the other teams..... https://www.mlb.com/news/teams-with-best-lineups-in-2022?partnerId=zh-20220328-570896-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20220328-570896-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=cdS1sErUAwyyoJTxwdz6C3f55NjhaPvLCdJ8smhEVxgoRo7JZe74VVRz0Lc6np6Y&bt_ts=1648475031986  ....... and didn't make the top 10 even..... score enough runs to get us into the playoffs, it sets us up to continue the record losing streak in the playoffs.

MLB ranks of SP did not even have us in honorable mention.  Our BP did not make the ranks either.  The outsiders are not as excited as Twins fans and I do not think it is a coastal bias.  The note on the Twins in the honorable mentions is that Sano and Sanchez have to hit for the lineup to really be good. 

[wabene]

11 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

That is your opinion.  It's not a fact.

Amen Bro, I mean Brah!

[Karbo]

9 hours ago, Melissa Berman said:

Agreed. I'm sure we will make a move at some point, especially if anyone gets banged up. We're not in the position to be desperate enough to sell the farm to Oakland. Their asking price must be ridiculous because likely they simply do not want to part ways

According to the Athletic there never was a true "asking price" given

[Whitey333]

Wow.  Now we are attacking youth sports lol!  The Twins could very well be out of contention by end of April, first part of May like last year.  It's a shame to have so many good hitters and fielder's not backed up by major league pitchers.  35 million for a great one year shortstop?  We could have signed a top pitcher or two during the pre- lockout time. I'm still trying to figure out what the teams roster philosophy is this year.  We always go dumpster diving for old worn out and failed pitchers while waiting to the end.  Strange philosophy.

[USAFChief]

12 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

That makes no sense whatsoever.

You want to give the FO credit for trying. 

In my world, you don't get extra MLB wins for trying. 

As a wise old man once said, there is no try.

[TheLeviathan]

17 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

A rotation that isn't composed almost entirely of bounce "bounce back candidates," and question marks? They have a lineup that can win playoff games, even with the downgrade at C and possibly 3B. There is/was plenty of room for at least 2, probably 3, solid starters while still prioritizing getting the younger arms innings. 

You don't have to worry about gutting the team; if they don't have at minimum 2 reliable mid to front end starters from this prospect group that job is already well underway. 

I'd prefer less question marks too.  Ultimately the FO is banking on the near-ready crop of arms they have.  Their future and the team's future hinges on those young arms.  I'm not sure acquiring Montas necessarily changes that either, fwiw.  (It'd help, certainly, but the eggs are in one basket at this point)

[Trov]

I just want to point out about possible signings or trades, that in 2018, many would have loved us to trade for Chris Archer.  Pretty sure many wrote about how we should.  If we had, we would have lost on that trade as after he was traded he pitched terrible and was injured.  

The point is, pitching is volatile, they get injured, they fall off cliffs never pitching like they had earlier in their careers.  Guys that looked to be on way to HOF just stop pitching well for some reason.  I could list dozens and dozens over the last few decades that fit that bill.  Some do it after they sign big deals.  Everyone seems to think we would be better off with a vet late 20's to early 30's pitcher and assume they will be better than the young to mid 20's guys, simply because they have not pitched at MLB for long, or at all.  Several years of decent pitching does not mean this year will be any better.  

The writer lists Cory Kluber as a signing made pre-lockout.  He had a good first half last year, but injury again cost him.  The last time he was good for a full year was 2018.  Not much different that Archer.  Rondon only good year was last year, his rookie year was decent.  Many of the others listed, outside of Scherzer have had down years and outlier years.  There is little reason to expect they will repeat their outlier year. 

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

You want to give the FO credit for trying. 

In my world, you don't get extra MLB wins for trying. 

As a wise old man once said, there is no try.

I never said that.  I only pointed out that people express opinions as cold, had facts.

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

You want to give the FO credit for trying. 

In my world, you don't get extra MLB wins for trying. 

As a wise old man once said, there is no try.

 

2 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

I never said that.  I only pointed out that people express opinions as cold, had facts.

But you did close an argument in this thread with "The Twins' front office can only make attempts."  Unless... you draw a distinction between "attempt" and "try".

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

You want to give the FO credit for trying. 

In my world, you don't get extra MLB wins for trying. 

As a wise old man once said, there is no try.

A wise old man never worked with humans. This is Fromm one who has It is not credit for trying, but it is not a demerit.

[TwinsAce]

6 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Was it, though? You could make the argument that it was a more accomplished rotation going into the season with Berrios, Maeda, Pineda, Happ, and Shoemaker...but the rotation last season was dreadful and had zero depth. Berrios was the only one who was good and healthy (until getting traded) and even Maeda had a rotten start and overall was a below average pitcher even before having to shut it down.

We gave 58 starts to pitchers with ERAs of 6+ (ok, I'm rounding up on Charlie Barnes' 5.92). Frankly, it'll take some real effort for Bundy and Archer to be worse than Happ & Shoemaker. Pineda was pretty good, but his various injuries limited him to 109 innings. Maeda had an ERA+ of only 91. I think Ober and Ryan will improve on that (YMMV on by how much). The issue is Berrios was better than any of them (even Gray, who was more like Pineda in terms of effectiveness, even if he was a bit healthier). 

The floor is higher on the rotation from last year because a) the FA signings last season were so brutally bad, b) the depth behind them was also dreadful (until we brought up Ober & Ryan), c) this year's signings are likely to be less awful, and d) the depth behind them is more talented. Bring up the floor on the rotation and this team improves pretty quickly. Top end starters have more impact in the playoffs, but you don't even get there if you don't raise the floor.

I agree - we might have lost a lot of games last year, but it was sunk at the start of the season.  We actually treaded water pretty decently towards the end, and that was without a few top flight players we just signed or traded for.  I don't see this as a 90 loss team, and neither do projections.

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

I'd prefer less question marks too.  Ultimately the FO is banking on the near-ready crop of arms they have.  Their future and the team's future hinges on those young arms.  I'm not sure acquiring Montas necessarily changes that either, fwiw.  (It'd help, certainly, but the eggs are in one basket at this point)

The decision to sit out the initial wave of FA removed any doubt about where the eggs were being placed. I don't think there's a singular acquisition that dramatically changes the outlook for this season, or the direction the FO has chosen, but from a stability standpoint, a front end arm is incredibly valuable beyond just the year at hand. The pitching situation seems bungled, even if the plan is to bet the next 5-6 years on this prospect group.  

[nicksaviking]

I regularly expressed then dealt with my disappointment prior to the lock out. There was nothing reasonable to do afterwards to fix the rotation. 

If they get more pieces now, it needs to come at the expense of Bundy and Archer. This economical approach to the rotation will never work unless it's mostly made up of internal top end starters. This was clearly the bed the team was trying to make too, so screwing around with the rookies has to stop. The young guys get long leashes, the Bundys/Archers/Haaps/Shoemakers/Perezs get the short leashes. Very, very short leashes.

[dxpavelka]

Rumor has it that moves can still be made AFTER Opening Day. 

[cheeseheadgophfan]

Cueto signed a minor league deal with the White Sox today.......

[Riverbrian]

I haven't bought in yet but I have money put aside for the purchase. 

I'm waiting to see what the farm produces. 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I haven't bought in yet but I have money put aside for the purchase. 

I'm waiting to see what the farm produces. 

I wasn't expecting it, but by themselves, Ober and Ryan in their handful of starts provided me with better baseball memories than the combined free agent starting pitchers this team has signed the last half decade.

Sign me up for more.