Projecting the 2022 Twins Opening Day Roster: Version 3.0

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota's Opening Day roster has shifted dramatically since spring training began. Now, the team is honing in on the 28 players that will come north with the club. 

Major League Baseball recently announced that teams will be able to carry 28-player rosters until May 1. The lockout forced a shortened spring training, and baseball was worried about an increased chance of injuries. Players listed below with the ** are on the bubble for the final roster spots. 

Catchers (2): Ryan Jeffers, Gary Sanchez
One of the biggest remaining questions is whether or not the Twins will carry a third catcher. Jeffers can't start every game behind the plate, and Sanchez is known as one of baseball's worst defenders. Minnesota's only other catcher on the 40-man roster is José Godoy, but it seems more likely for him to stay in St. Paul until there is a need at the big-league level. If Jeffers or Sanchez struggles behind the plate, Godoy is one phone call away from Target Field. 

Infielders (7): Luis Arraez, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano, Gio Urshela, Carlos Correa, Nick Gordon, Brent Rooker**
Correa's addition undoubtedly changes the face of the infield, including solidifying the team's up-the-middle defense. Minnesota has made it clear that Arraez won't be getting regular playing time in the outfield, leaving him as a backup infield option at multiple positions. Last season, Arraez's defense was significantly improved at third base, so maybe he and Urshella will be fighting for playing time at the hot corner. Barring injury, Gordon and Rooker fill out the bench, but neither has a path to a consistent starting job. 

Outfielders (4): Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach** 
With three corner outfielders, the Twins will need to be strategic about getting at-bats for each player. Larnach isn't a true fourth outfielder, so the team may want him in St. Paul to get regular at-bats. Kirilloff can spend time at first base, which is his best defensive position. Rooker is also on the roster, but the team is hesitant to play him defensively in the outfield. Gilberto Celestino is the lone outfielder on the 40-man roster left off this projected Opening Day roster. He was terrific in St. Paul last year, and he's one injury away from taking over a big-league role. 

Rotation (5): Sonny Gray, Dylan Bundy, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Archer
Randy Dobnak's injury took him out of contention for an Opening Day roster spot. Minnesota signed Archer to serve as Dobnak's replacement at the rotation's backend. Archer's deal is a low-risk option for the Twins as it is highly incentive-based, but he has a chance to prove he is healthy. Also, it's important to consider that the Twins won't need a fifth starter very regularly at the beginning of the season. In some years, off-days and weather delays can push back the need for a fifth starter, but that won't be the case this season. 

Bullpen (10): Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Jorge Alcala, Caleb Thielbar, Joe Smith, Cody Stashak, Jharel Cotton, Jovani Moran**, Griffin Jax**, Jhon Romero**
This spring, Rogers has looked strong, which is a good sign for the bullpen's backend. Smith was the team's most significant offseason addition to the bullpen. He comes with over 13 years of big-league experience. Minnesota needed another right-handed relief option, and Smith filled that role. Cotton and Stashak have started in the past, so they can pitch multiple innings when needed. If there were a 26-man roster, the last three names would be fighting for a job. All three could enjoy a big-league paycheck for the season's first month with expanded rosters.  

What changes will happen to the team's roster before Opening Day? Which on the bubble players will miss the cut? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[ToddlerHarmon]

Not the only lineups for sure, but two possible lineups with this roster:

vs RHP: 

• CF Buxton
• 3B Arraez
• SS Correa
• 2B Polanco
• DH Sano
• 1B Kirilloff
• LF Larnach
• C Jeffers
• RF Kepler

vs LHP:

• CF Buxton
• 2B Polanco
• SS Correa
• DH Sanchez
• 1B Sano
• RF Kirilloff
• LF Rooker
• C Jeffers
• 3B Urshela

Nice lineups, but the roster has too many 3B (Miranda is in St Paul in this projection), too few LF (Rooker really should only see the field at 1B)

[PopRiveter]

This is the first time I've seen a projected rotation that looks plausible. The Archer signing makes a real difference in my opinion. Still looks shaky.

For a comparison...

2021 Opening Day Rotation: Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, Shoemaker, Happ 

 

I don't think you should ever feel good about swapping out a full rotation.

[RJA]

Good roster prediction.  I think they will start Larnach at St. Paul to let him work on his approach and develop some confidence.  Same for Celestino.  I think Jax is in for sure in a relief role.  I think Stashak is more likely to be on the bubble.  I wonder if Cave might not sneak back in at least to start the year--just sayin'.  

[mikelink45]

My biggest question mark for the Twins is Rooker.  Every article talks about his bad glove.  Now with Sanchez filling the strikeout and big swing role what does Rooker give us?  I would be happy to have Larnach or Celestino as the fourth OF, but Rooker is not a good choice at any position.  

Catcher was our strength - Jeffers, Garver, Rortvedt - now it is a positional weak spot.  Jeffers has to come back strong and Godoy needs to be on the team so Sanchez doesn't wear any glove except for batting. 

[Mark G]

19 minutes ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

Not the only lineups for sure, but two possible lineups with this roster:

vs RHP: 

• CF Buxton
• 3B Arraez
• SS Correa
• 2B Polanco
• DH Sano
• 1B Kirilloff
• LF Larnach
• C Jeffers
• RF Kepler

vs LHP:

• CF Buxton
• 2B Polanco
• SS Correa
• DH Sanchez
• 1B Sano
• RF Kirilloff
• LF Rooker
• C Jeffers
• 3B Urshela

Nice lineups, but the roster has too many 3B (Miranda is in St Paul in this projection), too few LF (Rooker really should only see the field at 1B)

I really like the gist of it, but I have more faith in Kepler on an on going basis and less faith in Larnach, at least right now.  And I am not sure what I think about Rooker just yet. (funny, isn't it, that it is the outfield that is the question; please, Buck, stay healthy)  Otherwise, it looks good, doesn't it? 

[Dman]

I think your bullpen is spot on but I would flip the order some.  First I think you are correct that Jhoan Duran does not make the team out of camp.  I think they try and get him in an established lower pressure routine at AAA.  Make sure he can build on some success there and if he does then he seems most likely the first guy they call up. 

I think Jhon Romero is an interesting pickup.  I wish someone on the board could dig up more info on him.  While it was just one spring training appearance he only threw 15 pitches, 13 were strikes and 2 balls, well technically 3 balls but the guy still swung at it and K'd.  So this is a guy that really challenges hitters and dares them to hit his stuff.  It doesn't appear that worked out as well at the MLB level.  I wish I could have watched him pitch to see how he looks out there and the quality of his stuff.  At any rate he impressed me stat wise in his first outing.

Some shaky Starts still with Stashak and I would flip him with Jax at this point.  What made Cody's stuff so good was his control.  I don't know if not having the sticky stuff has really impacted him or what the deal is but I have him borderline off the 40 man as he looks like the weakest link to this point.  I think he has an elite slider but with no elite fastball he needs that pinpoint control he used to have.

To this point Cotton does not look like his control has improved but he has the pitches and the ability to go more than one inning.  Here is hoping he can put it all together for the Twins.

I really think the pen could be good this year and if a few of these guys fail then there should be AAA options they can use the first of which might be Duran.

[Eshrob]

56 minutes ago, PopRiveter said:

This is the first time I've seen a projected rotation that looks plausible. The Archer signing makes a real difference in my opinion. Still looks shaky.

For a comparison...

2021 Opening Day Rotation: Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, Shoemaker, Happ 

 

I don't think you should ever feel good about swapping out a full rotation.

Shaky, I agree. But I don’t see the harm in a full rotation change. What would be the issue? Battery chemistry?

[chpettit19]

Why are we listing Rooker with the infielders? Have I missed a statement where they intend to make him a 1B? He's still listed as an OF on the Twins site and I don't remember seeing him play any 1B yet this spring, but I certainly could have missed that.

[stringer bell]

I've projected Godoy as a third catcher making the club and I would expect Sanchez to DH occasionally. If the Twins don't DH Sanchez frequently most of the DH at-bats would go to Sano, with Kirlloff then getting more duty at first base. I see no role for Rooker on this team, particuarly since he had reverse splits as far as hitting left handed pitching. Celestino is the best fit for backup outfielder (RH hitter, center field capable, decent running speed and defense), but the question is whether he (and the Twins) would be better served by him getting playing time at St. Paul.

[MangLitch]

This rotation could absolutely implode this year. 

Gray - Least likely but age could start to show

Bundy - Oh boy...... this could be bad

Joe Ryan - Should be fine but homers could become a problem

Ober - Who knows, these guys seem to get figured out at some point

Archer - Complete wild card. 

None of these guys really scream to me that we have a stopper, or even a good #2. Seems like 3 #3 starters and two #5's (generously so).... God I hope I am wrong but won't be shocked if the Twins are really bad in the pitching department. 

[Twinsrule1991]

Hey, look at that. This rotation has gone from making me want to gouge my eyes out with a fork to now only wanting to spoon them out with a wooden ladle. Long way to go if they have any desire to sniff postseason play, but I guess this is a start.

[Nashvilletwin]

One of my fellow TDers explained how the catching and dh rules work. If your backup C is DHing, he can replace the injured starting but the team loses the DH spot.

That is one reason why we must carry three Cs.  The second reason is that we need someone who can actually catch when we need some solid defensive catching.

So Sanchez will hit 0.210, have a few dingers but strike out at a ridiculous clip, make $11MM and take away a roster spot and valuable ABs from one of our emerging youngsters. Yeah, that’s a good situation - lol.

Sanchez has no position being on this team.  We now have arguably the weakest lineup at C in the league after having one of the best. Yes, I’m happy that it all led to Correa’s one year rental. But it did not have to be that way.

Sanchez is at worst one and done as a Twin and at best we can move him for anything as soon as possible.

Btw, he’s not alone. Including Sanchez, we have four overpaid, veterans trying to prove their value with bounceback years but who are keeping Larnach, Miranda, Martin, Rooker, Celestino and others from getting the experience they need to develop. Will any of these veterans hit over 0.230 this year?  I hope they all do and have great years - but I’ve got the under.  

 

 

 

[Glenn 718]

35 minutes ago, MangLitch said:

This rotation could absolutely implode this year. 

Gray - Least likely but age could start to show

Bundy - Oh boy...... this could be bad

Joe Ryan - Should be fine but homers could become a problem

Ober - Who knows, these guys seem to get figured out at some point

Archer - Complete wild card. 

None of these guys really scream to me that we have a stopper, or even a good #2. Seems like 3 #3 starters and two #5's (generously so).... God I hope I am wrong but won't be shocked if the Twins are really bad in the pitching department. 

Unfortunately as a Twins fan I basically agree with you but I am much higher on Joe Ryan than most people.  Think he can be very good

[dex8425]

29 minutes ago, Glenn 718 said:

Unfortunately as a Twins fan I basically agree with you but I am much higher on Joe Ryan than most people.  Think he can be very good

Agree. Ryan is a solid pitcher I wouldn't hesitate to start a playoff game. Ober also has a decently high floor, my concern is that he stays healthy since he had so many injury issues in the minors. No idea what we'll get from Bundy or Archer. But they can't be as bad as Matt Shoemaker...right?

[Doctor Gast]

The 1st thing I'd have done this off-season is to drop Cave and get the best CF back up available and quit fooling around. We really need a 4th OF that can actually play CF

Buxton and Kepler are elite and Kiriloff is solid enough but Rooker and Garlick are sub par gloves plus Larnach, Martin and Celestino should see more time in AAA. Until Martin or Celestino are ready to step up we still have a chasm at CF back up to give Buxton time to rest. Please don't even think Cave. We are still finding ourselves in a delemna that was a big part of our demise last year.

Last year I hated the addition of Happ and Shoemaker, this year I like the addition of Gray and Archer, a step in the right direction. Hoping that Gray can give us at least 5 quality innings but to begin with the season he'd be lucky to give us 4. Even more importance to begin the season with this rotation, Id like to have a 6 strong long relief corp, Smeltzer, Duran, Jax, Alcala, Cotton and Winder, With a strong long relief corp we keep everyone healthy and fresh when post seson come around.

INF is still our strong suit although being down graded at 3B and catching. Hoping Correa can stay healthy and Lewis, Martin, Celestino and Godoy step up and fill much needed back up roles at the premium positions CF, SS and catching.

Our line up is where we shine IMO debatably the best. #1 Buxton #2 Correa #3 Polanco #4 Kiriloff #5 Arraez #6 Sano etc. I'm really excited about the addition of Correa, Gray and Archer and what each can bring to the game. Go Twins!

 

[LA VIkes Fan]

Why Rooker on the 28 man? Has he shown something in ST other than what we saw last year? He should be in AAA learning to control the strike zone and honing his swing. He was good but not great in 2019, his last year in the minors - good counting stats with a .933 OPS but 95 SOs in 274 PAs. (33.5%). Guys that SO 33.5% in AAA are going to SO 33% in the Majors like Rooker did in 2021. Can't play a guy who strikes out 33% unless he hits 35+ HRs or ha a >850 OPS, and you can't play that guy, Sano, and Sanchez. Rooker has not yet completely conquered the minors or forced his way up. Send him down. It's likely he will get through waivers if that's necessary. 

I say there are 2 much better choices. One is to keep Godoy as the 2nd C so that Sanchez (3rd C) doesn't see the field much and only DHs 2 or  3 times a week. Godoy hits LH, is pretty good defensively and project to a .687 OPS - not great but not horrible for a Catcher. The other is to to keep up Miranda if we can find him some playing time somewhere, maybe LF.  He did force his way up last year with his performance. He deserves a shot.

Let's reward performance and actually fill our roster needs. Miranda has performed. Godoy fills a need. Rooker does neither. 

[RedneckRay]

2 hours ago, MangLitch said:

This rotation could absolutely implode this year. 

Gray - Least likely but age could start to show

Bundy - Oh boy...... this could be bad

Joe Ryan - Should be fine but homers could become a problem

Ober - Who knows, these guys seem to get figured out at some point

Archer - Complete wild card. 

None of these guys really scream to me that we have a stopper, or even a good #2. Seems like 3 #3 starters and two #5's (generously so).... God I hope I am wrong but won't be shocked if the Twins are really bad in the pitching department. 

This is spot on. It would look great with the addition of a true #1. I really think the Twins have to make a trade to get an ace, especially because this front office saw how things went last year.

[MangLitch]

4 hours ago, dex8425 said:

Agree. Ryan is a solid pitcher I wouldn't hesitate to start a playoff game. Ober also has a decently high floor, my concern is that he stays healthy since he had so many injury issues in the minors. No idea what we'll get from Bundy or Archer. But they can't be as bad as Matt Shoemaker...right?

Oh you did it now

[darwin22]

7 hours ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

Not the only lineups for sure, but two possible lineups with this roster:

vs RHP: 

• CF Buxton
• 3B Arraez
• SS Correa
• 2B Polanco
• DH Sano
• 1B Kirilloff
• LF Larnach
• C Jeffers
• RF Kepler

vs LHP:

• CF Buxton
• 2B Polanco
• SS Correa
• DH Sanchez
• 1B Sano
• RF Kirilloff
• LF Rooker
• C Jeffers
• 3B Urshela

Nice lineups, but the roster has too many 3B (Miranda is in St Paul in this projection), too few LF (Rooker really should only see the field at 1B)

No major disagreement with your lineups with the exception of seeing Sano hitting in 5-hole.  Would move Kirilloff up into that slot.  Kepler is where he deserves to be-------hitting 9th vs. RH SP and riding pine against LH.

[darwin22]

6 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I've projected Godoy as a third catcher making the club and I would expect Sanchez to DH occasionally. If the Twins don't DH Sanchez frequently most of the DH at-bats would go to Sano, with Kirlloff then getting more duty at first base. I see no role for Rooker on this team, particuarly since he had reverse splits as far as hitting left handed pitching. Celestino is the best fit for backup outfielder (RH hitter, center field capable, decent running speed and defense), but the question is whether he (and the Twins) would be better served by him getting playing time at St. Paul.

Excellent point about Rooker.  I echo your remarks as I see ZERO role on this team for Rooker.  He has a waffle iron for a glove in LF, whiffs at an alarming rate and shouldn't be in the mix for ABs in DH role with the "K-Machines" we have--Sano and Sanchez.  With the 28-man roster, I can see Godoy making the club, but what at RPs expense?  Sure wish management would find a solid defensive oriented catcher with a LH bat to play 1x a week to spell Jeffers and Sanchez.  As for Celestino, I agree that he's the best current fit as 4th OFer, but is his development thwarted by getting infrequent ABs if he's playing only once a week?

[Dantes929]

8 hours ago, PopRiveter said:

This is the first time I've seen a projected rotation that looks plausible. The Archer signing makes a real difference in my opinion. Still looks shaky.

For a comparison...

2021 Opening Day Rotation: Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, Shoemaker, Happ 

 

I don't think you should ever feel good about swapping out a full rotation.

I don't feel good that Maeda got hurt.   Rotation looks a lot different with him in there.   Hoping a couple of these guys are just place holders for Winder and Balazovic.    Less concerned with who we would throw out there in a playoff game.   I am always happy to get there and take our chances.     Never in my history as a fan back to the mid 70's have I heard anyone say "I'm pretty happy with this rotation"    That includes the 91 team and especially is true of the 87 team.    Pavano, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn were called #3's or worse in their careers.   We still got to the playoffs with them.      I am ok with the potential.   If it were a sure thing I wouldn't watch.

[stringer bell]

Rooker hasn’t played for about five days since suffering a mild injury. In the meantime, Larnach is playing well. I can certainly see Larnach starting most games in left against right handed pitching, with one of Sanó, Jeffers or Sánchez on the bench. Unless Celestino or a non-roster guy makes the team in the scenario I’m envisioning, all of the Twins corner OFs would be left handed hitters. 

[howeda7]

I feel like at least one of Minaya/Coulombe will make the bullpen. I know their stuff doesn't excite anyone but they were both solid last year and have been in Spring so far this year last I checked.

[PNW twins]

7 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Rooker has not yet completely conquered the minors or forced his way up. Send him down. It's likely he will get through waivers if that's necessary. 

I agree with your post, but I'm not so sure about this part.  Someone will let him swing away on their mlb club,  for awhile at least. 

[Mike Sixel]

8 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

One of my fellow TDers explained how the catching and dh rules work. If your backup C is DHing, he can replace the injured starting but the team loses the DH spot.

That is one reason why we must carry three Cs.  The second reason is that we need someone who can actually catch when we need some solid defensive catching.

So Sanchez will hit 0.210, have a few dingers but strike out at a ridiculous clip, make $11MM and take away a roster spot and valuable ABs from one of our emerging youngsters. Yeah, that’s a good situation - lol.

Sanchez has no position being on this team.  We now have arguably the weakest lineup at C in the league after having one of the best. Yes, I’m happy that it all led to Correa’s one year rental. But it did not have to be that way.

Sanchez is at worst one and done as a Twin and at best we can move him for anything as soon as possible.

Btw, he’s not alone. Including Sanchez, we have four overpaid, veterans trying to prove their value with bounceback years but who are keeping Larnach, Miranda, Martin, Rooker, Celestino and others from getting the experience they need to develop. Will any of these veterans hit over 0.230 this year?  I hope they all do and have great years - but I’ve got the under.  

 

 

 

Why? So they play 1 game w/o a DH if Jeffers is hurt and Sanchez is the DH. Or, if they PH or something weird, they lose the DH late in the game, then PH for the pitcher's spot. I just don't see it as the risk so many here do. 

They don't need 3 catchers, IMO. 

[KirbyHawk75]

I am sure Cave will find a way to make the team again and will be our starting CF when Buck gets hurt.  Oh joy.  

[Mike Sixel]

Also, I don't really see a use for Rooker on this roster. Not with AK and Larnach on it.

[Minny505]

I still don't understand the LF situation. Kirilloff is fine in LF, but he is amazing at 1B and Sano is atrocious at 1B. The gap in defensive value is worth 3-4 wins on it's own. The gap from Kirilloff to just about anyone else playing LF, probably even Sano himself, is not that large.

I'm still hoping for a Brett Gardner signing. He fits so well on this roster. He can start the season as the strong platoon in LF, then transition to the CF capable backup OF once Larnach, Rooker, or Celestino, prove ready for a shot. 

 

[ziggy]

why the contradiction ? >>> that the Twins won't need a fifth starter very regularly at the beginning of the season. In some years, off-days and weather delays can push back the need for a fifth starter, but that won't be the case this season. <<<

They either need a fifth starter often or don't.

Either way if the bullpen has to go 6 -7 innings in consecutive games the Twins are in trouble. I see overuse as the main bullpen problem for the last few years.