Twins 2022 Position Analysis: Left Field

[Nick Nelson]

One year ago, the Twins decided to move on from their longtime fixture in left field, Eddie Rosario. The team's first season in his absence did not feature much stability at the position.

In 2022, the Twins will try to clarify the future in left, which remains fairly murky at the moment – albeit with some quality options in place.

Projected Starter: Alex Kirilloff
Likely Backup: Nick Gordon
Depth: Trevor Larnach, Brent Rooker
Prospects: Emmanuel Rodriguez, Alerick Soularie

THE GOOD

Among all positions for the Twins last year (aside from pitcher), left field saw the most different names rotate through: a total of eight players made at least one start there. This speaks to their depth of usable corner outfielders, which remains intact – seven of those players are back in camp this spring. (Minus Rob Refsnyder, who signed with the Red Sox during the offseason.)

When Eddie Rosario departed, Alex Kirilloff was lined up as his replacement in left, a natural opening to be filled by the organization's MLB-ready top prospect. And yet, Kirilloff ended up ranking fifth in starts at the position, spending much more of his time (pre-surgery) at first base while Trevor Larnach led the team in left field starts with 51.

I would imagine that still represents the front office's long-term vision: Kirilloff at first, Larnach in left. Two former first-round draft picks and impact bats entrenched at the positions for which they are best suited. However, it's probably not a feasible path forward in the immediate future, both because Miguel Sanó is occupying first base and because Larnach's late-season plunge in 2021 cast doubt on his readiness.

Hardly the worst thing in the world. Left field might not be Kirilloff's BEST position, but it's certainly one he can play. And the most important thing is getting his bat into the lineup. With his surgically repaired wrist appearing to be in the clear, it's time to once again let loose the purest swing in the organization.

I assume the plan is to trot him out regularly in left, because there are no other obvious paths to everyday playing time for him, and no other obvious answers out there. But the Twins have not operated like a team prepping him for such an assignment.

THE BAD

Do the Twins actually want to use Kirilloff in left field? Unclear.

There's no reason to think he can't play a perfectly solid left field, and he's looked fine during his opportunities there. But for whatever reason, those opportunities have been far and few between. Last year, as the Twins sorted through a multitude of different players to fill in, Kirilloff drew only 11 total starts at the position. In a minor-league career that spanned 281 games, he started in left field a total of 10 times. He started more times in center!

The team's lack of interest in seeing Kirilloff play left field shows no signs of dissipating. He has started only two games there this spring.

It certainly suggests that the Twins aren't planning on using Kirilloff regularly in left field for any extended length of time. Once you move past him, the options at the position become significantly less exciting, at least in the short-term.

The club now seems firmly committed to keeping Luis Arraez (who started 24 games in left last year) in the infield. Brent Rooker's glove is not be trusted. Jake Cave and Kyle Garlick are uninspiring non-roster options. Nick Gordon is a pure plug-and-play backup who lacks the bat to be an asset in a corner outfield spot.

Larnach is the one who holds the key. While there's plenty of reason to remain bullish on his future, it's hard to imagine the Twins are going to plug him right back into the Opening Day lineup after the way his rookie year concluded. Following a good start with the Twins, Larnach got thoroughly dominated for two months. From June 15th through August 15th, he slashed .193/.279/.298 with a 38.3% K-rate. He was then demoted to Triple-A, where he posted a .611 OPS in 10 games before being shut down.

When major-league pitchers spot a weakness, they take advantage, and that's what happened here as they began to unload an endless bevy of breaking balls and changeups on Larnach, who mashed fastballs (.296 BA, .512 SLG) but struggled mightily against offspeed (.143 BA, .179 SLG).

THE BOTTOM LINE

Assuming Larnach goes back to Triple-A to build confidence and prove he's ready, Kirilloff should be in line for the lion's share of playing time in left field from day one. Unless the Twins have other plans. Which their behavior suggests they might.

With only 10 days until the regular season gets underway, they are running short on time to orchestrate their final designs. 

Catch Up on the Rest of Our 2022 Previews:

• Position Analysis: Catcher
• Position Analysis: First Base
• Position Analysis: Second Base
• Position Analysis: Third Base
• Position Analysis: Shortstop

 

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[stringer bell]

There's a news item about Larnach today, as well. I think he'll break camp with the team and get plenty of starts in left field. This does leave a real gap in terms of backup outfielders, but i think there's room for Larnach and Kirilloff on 2022 Twins team.

[yeahyabetcha]

I think it would be great to see Kirilloff at first and Larnach in left against right handed starters.  I am just not sure the Twins will start the season that way.

[Tiantwindup]

I have an idea!  How ‘bout we try Miguel Sano there?  ?

[mickster]

Lets see if we can dump Sano or Arreaz with Martin to Oakland and land someone in the top half of our rotation.

 

 

[mikelink45]

Bring back Eddie!  Just kidding.  Who thought LF would be a challenge for the team?  I would like us to move on from Rooker - why didn't we market him as a NL DH?  Let's hope Larnach has learned his lesson.  Berrios had a terrible first year and learned from it.  Larnach could be the same.

[jmlease1]

Look, I'm still wondering why they don't shift Kepler over to LF (his range fits nicely there) and let Kirilloff play in right (where his range might be less of an issue and his arm plays just fine) but they seem to have zero interest in that for...reasons?

Regardless, the Twins need to get Kirilloff's bat in the lineup and LF appears to be the easiest spot right now. It would be great if Larnach has the bounceback season; I still believe in his talent and it's one of the reasons I didn't want to deal him this off-season (the other being we would have been selling low on a player. I'm always baffled by the belief of some people that the best time to deal a player is after they've hit a bump in their development path as if the other team you're trading with wouldn't be aware of it and adjust their valuation of the player accordingly)

I would include Martin on the list of prospects here, even if he's not playing OF right now. There's no question that he can play here and his bat could force him into the lineup. If Miranda takes control of 3B there might not be any other spots open for full-time ABs in the near future if he's not going to stick at SS. I wouldn't hate Martin in LF in 2023 if Kirilloff shifts to 1B and Larnach is still scraping.

[wabene]

Why do we not see Larnach's foot injury even mentioned? Just watching Polanco's career should impart the necessity of having a good set of wheels under you. I wouldn't be surprised to see Larnach break camp with the team. Cave we hardly knew ya?

[terrydactyls]

Just send Sano, Arraez, and maybe Spencer Speed to Miami for pitching help.  Kirilloff takes over 1B, Miranda becomes the utility guy, and Larnach plays LF.  All problems solved! ?

[Dave The Dastardly]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

Just send Sano, Arraez, and maybe Spencer Speed to Miami for pitching help.  Kirilloff takes over 1B, Miranda becomes the utility guy, and Larnach plays LF.  All problems solved! ?

Agree with the concept but I'd prefer peddling Sano and Urshela, give 1st Base to Kirilloff, 3rd base to Miranda and LF to Larnach so all three can settle in at their preferred positions instead of shuffling them around all season and keep Arraez as the utility guy. By the end of the season we'd know whether or not we've got our guys for contending in 2023 and beyond.

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Regardless, the Twins need to get Kirilloff's bat in the lineup and LF appears to be the easiest spot right now. It would be great if Larnach has the bounceback season; I still believe in his talent and it's one of the reasons I didn't want to deal him this off-season (the other being we would have been selling low on a player. I'm always baffled by the belief of some people that the best time to deal a player is after they've hit a bump in their development path as if the other team you're trading with wouldn't be aware of it and adjust their valuation of the player accordingly)

I would include Martin on the list of prospects here, even if he's not playing OF right now. There's no question that he can play here and his bat could force him into the lineup. If Miranda takes control of 3B there might not be any other spots open for full-time ABs in the near future if he's not going to stick at SS. I wouldn't hate Martin in LF in 2023 if Kirilloff shifts to 1B and Larnach is still scraping.

I think Larnach is the eventual right fielder for the Twins, with Martin becoming the left fielder perhaps as soon as this year. That would leave Kepler as the odd man. I hope Kep has a good season and raises his trade value. 

[blindeke]

Please tell me Jake Cave is not on the team again...

[RpR]

2 hours ago, blindeke said:

Please tell me Jake Cave is not on the team again...

He is also doing QUITE WELL in spring training.?

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

He is also doing QUITE WELL in spring training.?

Yeah, in 14 plate appearances he's struck out 5 times, walked twice, had a sac bunt, and a sac fly.  So in the 5 remaining chances, where it seems he put the ball in play normally, it fell in safely for a base hit.  Yeah, that rate of .800 is sustainable, to support his .333 BA. 

[Minny505]

Brett Gardner

He's cheap and he fits this roster perfectly. He adds speed and patience to the lineup. He is more than capable of backing up CF. To start the season, he keeps LF warm. He is an average LF until Larnach or someone else proves ready for the every day job.

[blindeke]

1 hour ago, Minny505 said:

Brett Gardner

He's cheap and he fits this roster perfectly. He adds speed and patience to the lineup. He is more than capable of backing up CF. To start the season, he keeps LF warm. He is an average LF until Larnach or someone else proves ready for the every day job.

Let's get all the Yankees and beat the curse!

[RJA]

Larnach, Kirilloff and Rooker are the best candidates.  I'm pretty sure the present roster is not how the Twins drew it up last fall. I don't think they thought they could compete this year or they would have signed at LEAST a mid tier pitcher in free agency.  I think they were gunning for 2023 thinking that a couple of their pitchers would arrive by then.   I think they were really planning to make Sano the primary DH while rotating others through the spot, to split Kirilloff between first and left, to have Donaldson at third (I don't think they thought they would be able to move him) with Arraez spelling him and Polanco and being a DH sometimes, to give Rooker a chance in left, and to trade Garver for a good defensive shortstop leaving Jeffers and Rortvedt as catchers.  I think they were looking to add a pitcher by trade who could help them for two years and accomplished that by adding Gray.  Then, after the Garver trade, they looked set until the Yankees presented them with a deal they couldn't refuse and it really messed things up position wise.  Apparently their desire to dump Donaldson was greater than their desire to have a good/decent shortstop.  To accomplish that they took back a DH in Sanchez and Urshela to replace Donaldson.  They were really stuck with no shortstop as it was clear Story wasn't interested and reports are that they were never really close to signing him, and then Correa was dropped in their lap by Boras.  Now they are stuck with one of the best players on the planet (Buck might be another) with a significant pitching shortage. Their whole posture has been reactive and their biggest failure was not signing a pitcher last fall, or this spring.  They offered Rodon 18 million for one year.  Is it any surprise he signed with the Giants for 2 years at 44 million?  Had they signed one pitcher, things would be looking a lot better right now.  I know they are trying to be consistent and not make long term commitments to pitchers, but sometimes consistency truly is the hobgoblin of small minds.  Sometimes you have to be flexible or else you are stuck standing in the game of musical chairs for pitching.

[terrydactyls]

13 hours ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Agree with the concept but I'd prefer peddling Sano and Urshela, give 1st Base to Kirilloff, 3rd base to Miranda and LF to Larnach so all three can settle in at their preferred positions instead of shuffling them around all season and keep Arraez as the utility guy. By the end of the season we'd know whether or not we've got our guys for contending in 2023 and beyond.

I would agree except I don't know that Urshela has the trade value of Arraez.  Either would work for me.

[mikelink45]

On 3/29/2022 at 8:47 AM, terrydactyls said:

Just send Sano, Arraez, and maybe Spencer Speed to Miami for pitching help.  Kirilloff takes over 1B, Miranda becomes the utility guy, and Larnach plays LF.  All problems solved! ?

If only the other team agreed

[terrydactyls]

4 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

If only the other team agreed

I'm sure they would.  I know a guy who knows a guy that could just happen to drop by the Marlin offices and have a talk with whomever is in charge of making trades.  Know what I mean?  ⛏️???

[Doctor Gast]

On 3/29/2022 at 8:01 AM, jmlease1 said:

Look, I'm still wondering why they don't shift Kepler over to LF (his range fits nicely there) and let Kirilloff play in right (where his range might be less of an issue and his arm plays just fine) but they seem to have zero interest in that for...reasons?

Regardless, the Twins need to get Kirilloff's bat in the lineup and LF appears to be the easiest spot right now. It would be great if Larnach has the bounceback season; I still believe in his talent and it's one of the reasons I didn't want to deal him this off-season (the other being we would have been selling low on a player. I'm always baffled by the belief of some people that the best time to deal a player is after they've hit a bump in their development path as if the other team you're trading with wouldn't be aware of it and adjust their valuation of the player accordingly)

I would include Martin on the list of prospects here, even if he's not playing OF right now. There's no question that he can play here and his bat could force him into the lineup. If Miranda takes control of 3B there might not be any other spots open for full-time ABs in the near future if he's not going to stick at SS. I wouldn't hate Martin in LF in 2023 if Kirilloff shifts to 1B and Larnach is still scraping.

I suggested also back when Rosario was in LF to switch with Kepler. I posted that question to Seth, he mentioned that Kepler had stated that LF was his best position and that Rosario had played some RF when he was coming up. After Kepler came up they never made that switch, maybe too late now?

LF seems a little shaky, our best option right now is Kiriloff but he's better off at 1B. I suggested to bolster our OF by approaching TB with a trade for either CFs last year arbritration Margot or salary dump Kiermaier.  TB has a nice crop of CFers coming up & they need power bats, they might be interested in a Rooker/ Margot or Sano/ Kiermaier trade, seems like a win/win to me. 

Playing Martin at SS seems like waste of time, when the jury says he won't stick at SS and he's needed in the OF especially CF. It looks to me that they purposely have the OF so bad to have an excuse to bring back Cave.

[jmlease1]

11 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Playing Martin at SS seems like waste of time, when the jury says he won't stick at SS and he's needed in the OF especially CF. It looks to me that they purposely have the OF so bad to have an excuse to bring back Cave.

Seems unlikely? And the OF is only "bad" if our starters are missing extended amounts of time: Buxton is an MVP-caliber player, Kepler is a fine defender in the corners who gives decent offensive production, and Kirilloff profiles as an above-average hitter. 

People need to stop panicking about Cave. He's not on the 40-man, so the only way he's going to be at target Field is if someone gets an injury significant enough to put them on the 60-day IL AND options like Celestino and Larnach aren't ready/working out. He's the emergency backup to the backup, a "break glass" player so that we're not trying to shuffle a Rob Refsnyder into CF and hope that he survives.

[Mike Sixel]

On 3/29/2022 at 8:50 AM, stringer bell said:

I think Larnach is the eventual right fielder for the Twins, with Martin becoming the left fielder perhaps as soon as this year. That would leave Kepler as the odd man. I hope Kep has a good season and raises his trade value. 

Agreed. I don't know how Martin isn't listed as a LF prospect at this point. I expect him to start there for MN or another team for years to come, putting up 2.5-3 WAR per year.