How Should the Twins Arrange the Top of the Order?

[Cody Christie]

Twins fans want to see Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, and Carlos Correa as much as possible. All three figure into the team's plans for the top of the order.

Leadoff Options
So far this spring, Byron Buxton has served as the leadoff hitter in every game he has been in the line-up. This positioning may point to the team considering him for the leadoff spot, or it may be a way to get him more in-game action this spring. Buxton has started 33 games as the leadoff hitter throughout his career and posted a .315 OBP and a .514 OPS. His speed would be a clear weapon out of the leadoff spot, making him an intriguing player to feature in the leadoff role. 

Minnesota also has other options to fill the leadoff role. Luis Arraez has the contact and on-base skills to fit the mold of a leadoff hitter. In his career, he has batted leadoff more than any other line-up spot while hitting .320/.371/.398 (.769). However, Arraez doesn't have a regular line-up spot, and his knees issues have made his running painful to watch. Last season, his sprint speed ranked in the 45th percentile, but the team may still want his bat-to-ball skills in the leadoff spot.

Two Hole
Coming off a season where he was team MVP, Jorge Polanco will likely continue to be used in the second spot in the line-up. He has batted second in nearly 40% of his big-league appearances, where he has hit .288/.345/.478 (.823). Last season, he accumulated double-digit steals for the second time in his career, and that may point to his ankles being healthy for the first time in multiple seasons. A healthy Buxton batting in front of Polanco can be an exciting one-two punch at the top of the line-up. 

Polanco played over 150 games for the second time in his career last season, but there are other options for the line-up's second spot when he is given a day off. As mentioned above, Buxton and Arraez have the skills necessary to bat at the top of the line-up when Polanco sits out a game. Depending on the handiness of the pitcher, Max Kepler, a left-handed hitter, 

Three Spot
Carlos Correa is the highest-paid infielder in MLB history, and he needs to bat in the middle of the Twins line-up. He has made over 230 starts in the number three and four spots throughout his career. From both of these spots, his OPS is north of .820, and he hit 83 career home runs. The higher Correa bats in the order, the more at-bats he will accumulate throughout the season. Batting him lower than third in the line-up takes away from the offensive value he can be providing to the team. 

In the past, Correa has dealt with injuries, including missing time in multiple seasons because of back issues. He has averaged more than 115 games per season, but there will be times when he isn't on the field. When that occurs, moving Buxton to the third spot allows him more opportunities to drive in the leadoff runners. Alex Kirilloff is returning from injury, but he projects to be a middle-of-the-order hitter for the Twins over the next decade. 

Minnesota's line-up has undoubtedly taken on a different look since the lockout ended with Josh Donaldson and Mitch Garver out of the equation. However, Correa adds another experienced bat that has been accustomed to connecting for big hits in the playoffs. 

How do you think the Twins will shape the top of their line-up this season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[kenneth frank]

Lewis would slot vert nicely into the #2 spot.

[stringer bell]

27 minutes ago, kenneth frank said:

Lewis would slot vert nicely into the #2 spot.

Maybe in 2023. Arraez and Martin both look like top of the order guys to me and there is a pretty good chance that Martin will make his debut this year. 

[mikelink45]

I think you have nailed it, but in the past Rocco was reluctant to put Buxton first and then we saw way too much of Kepler.  Let's hope those days are over.  You have Kiriloff slotted fourth (you did not say it, but implied it) so then I tried to think of what follows.  I hope we do not have Sanchez and Sano back to back like they did in ST. Ouch.   Without Garver how do you split them up?  Would Urshela go fifth or are we committed to Sano there?  Urshela between Sano and Sanchez?  Kepler and Jeffers at 8 and 9?

[TopGunn#22]

Cody, this is a PERFECT time to bring something like this up and I believe there will be a LOT of opinions and none of them will be wrong.  Here's what I think:

1.  Arraez   DH

2.  Buxton   CF

3.  Polanco  2B

4.  Correa  SS

5.  Kiriloff   LF

6.  Urshela  3B

7.  Kepler  RF

8.  Sano  1B

9.  Sanchez/Jeffers  C

This lineup doesn't have Miranda in it.  I think he should also be a consistent piece in the lineup.  Let's suppose Sano is off to his usual "slow start."  I'd shake things up like this:

1.  Arraez  DH

2.  Buxton  CF

3.  Polanco  2B

4.  Correa  SS

5.  Kiriloff  1B

6.  Miranda  LF

7.  Kepler  RF

8.  Sanchez/Jeffers  C

9.  Urshela  3B

I would still want to keep this lineup pretty steady.  I just swap in Miranda for Sano.  I want Arraez at the top and I don't care if he can't run.  He gets on base at a .380-.400 clip.  Set. The. Table.  Buxton's power and speed slot in well at #2.  Polanco's switch hitting and solid bat to ball skills work well at #3.  Correa at cleanup is my desire.  He's clutch and will drive in runs. Kirilloff is a future #3 hitter for the Twins who slots in well at #5 with bat to ball skills and power (plus some protection for Correa).  #6-#9 are fluid depending on who's swinging a hot bat.  Urshela has the most movement in my lineups and he's a bit of an unknown.  Do we get 2019 Gio or something quite less?  It remains to be seen.  I would just like Rocco to finally (if we're not going to trade him for pitching) put Arraez in the leadoff spot and leave him there.  

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1,2,3...I agree.

[Trov]

I do not want anyone in front of Buxton that will hurt his speed.  His speed is one of the biggest tools he has.  He turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples.  I love Arraez for his .OBP, but I think he is better suited lower in line up because of his ability to hit all over the field.  He is one where you can do hit and runs with runners on, or he will work counts to allow for steals if you have a runner that can steal.  You put him on base in front of Buxton some times you will take extra base hits, or stolen bases away from Buck, which limits his scoring potential. 

[chpettit19]

46 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Cody, this is a PERFECT time to bring something like this up and I believe there will be a LOT of opinions and none of them will be wrong.  Here's what I think:

1.  Arraez   DH

2.  Buxton   CF

3.  Polanco  2B

4.  Correa  SS

5.  Kiriloff   LF

6.  Urshela  3B

7.  Kepler  RF

8.  Sano  1B

9.  Sanchez/Jeffers  C

This lineup doesn't have Miranda in it.  I think he should also be a consistent piece in the lineup.  Let's suppose Sano is off to his usual "slow start."  I'd shake things up like this:

1.  Arraez  DH

2.  Buxton  CF

3.  Polanco  2B

4.  Correa  SS

5.  Kiriloff  1B

6.  Miranda  LF

7.  Kepler  RF

8.  Sanchez/Jeffers  C

9.  Urshela  3B

I would still want to keep this lineup pretty steady.  I just swap in Miranda for Sano.  I want Arraez at the top and I don't care if he can't run.  He gets on base at a .380-.400 clip.  Set. The. Table.  Buxton's power and speed slot in well at #2.  Polanco's switch hitting and solid bat to ball skills work well at #3.  Correa at cleanup is my desire.  He's clutch and will drive in runs. Kirilloff is a future #3 hitter for the Twins who slots in well at #5 with bat to ball skills and power (plus some protection for Correa).  #6-#9 are fluid depending on who's swinging a hot bat.  Urshela has the most movement in my lineups and he's a bit of an unknown.  Do we get 2019 Gio or something quite less?  It remains to be seen.  I would just like Rocco to finally (if we're not going to trade him for pitching) put Arraez in the leadoff spot and leave him there.  

 

Agree with most of your points, except hitting Arraez in front of Buxton (you take away the speed side of Buxton's game by putting Arraez in front of him on base 40% of the time). And putting Miranda in LF. That's a very small disagreement, but Miranda isn't an OFer and isn't going to play there so it'd be Kirilloff in LF and Miranda at 1B.

I love Buxton in the leadoff spot. Twins version of Ronald Acuna Jr. Nothing wrong with starting the game 1-0 with a leadoff bomb if he hits one. The more difficult decision for me is what to do with Arraez. I think I'd start the year with a Buxton-Arraez-Correa-Polanco top 4. Put the switch hitter at the back of the line so that I can still use the same top 4 against any pitcher (I trust Arraez against lefties more than Rocco seems to). Then it's mix and matching the 5-9 behind Polanco as you can go either Kirilloff against righties or Sano against lefties in the 5 spot for example.

But Buxton followed by Arraez gives me happy thoughts about Arraez being patient enough to let Buxton steal some bags and doesn't put a slow runner on base in front of Buxton as frequently. Yes, the 9 hole hitter will likely be a slow runner as well, but they aren't getting on base at the same kind of clip Arraez is so they're not slowing Buxton down as frequently as Arraez would. I love the Buxton-Arraez 1-2 punch, but it also doesn't seem right to push Polanco to the 4 spot so that's where I have some doubt on what to do with Arraez. Cuz I also don't want to hit him 9 in front of Buxton in the 1 spot. But I think I'd start the year Buxton-Arraez-Correa-Polanco and go from there.

[Gustafson53]

How about a batting order based on salary? Highest paid at the top, lowest salary at the bottom. That way they can get the most "bang" for the buck!??

[4twinsJA]

I agree with TopGun, need Arraez, Buxton, Polanco, Correa in top 4, clearly Twins best hitters. Need Arraez in lineup on a regular basis, I like him primarily at DH and subbing at 3B, 2B as needed. 5,6,7 Kirilloff, Sano, Kepler. Then Urshela and C. If Sanchez is going to hit around .200, limit time at DH.

[GKuehl]

While I understand the love for Arraez in the leadoff spot, I just can't justify him getting the most at bats out of Buxton, Correa, or Polanco. That's why I think slotting him into the 4 spot could make a great deal of sense, as he's a lefty bat who can follow up an at-bat against Correa by working the count and capitalizing on any mistakes the pitcher might make after breathing a sigh of relief that he made it through C4. Here's my ideal lineup, trying to balance handedness (which Rocco always seems to care a lot about) with lineup balance. 

1. Buxton, CF (Right)

2. Polanco, 2B (Switch)

3. Correa, SS (Right) 

4. Arraez, 3B (Left)

5. Jeffers, C (Right)

6. Kiriloff, LF (Left)

7. Sano, 1B (Right)

8. Kepler, RF (Left)

9. Sanchez, DH (Right)

Let me know what you think! 

[TwinsDr2021]

I want some combination of Buxton, Polanco, Correa at 1-3.

verses Lefties

4. Sano (1B)

5. AK (LF)

6. Urshela (3B)

7.  Sanchez (DH)

8 Kepler (LF)

9. Jeffers (C)

verses Righties

4. AK (LF)

5. Arraez  (DH)

6. Sano (1B)

7. Kepler (LF)

8. Urshela (3B)

9. Jeffers (C)

 

 

 

 

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, GKuehl said:

While I understand the love for Arraez in the leadoff spot, I just can't justify him getting the most at bats out of Buxton, Correa, or Polanco. That's why I think slotting him into the 4 spot could make a great deal of sense, as he's a lefty bat who can follow up an at-bat against Correa by working the count and capitalizing on any mistakes the pitcher might make after breathing a sigh of relief that he made it through C4. Here's my ideal lineup, trying to balance handedness (which Rocco always seems to care a lot about) with lineup balance. 

1. Buxton, CF (Right)

2. Polanco, 2B (Switch)

3. Correa, SS (Right) 

4. Arraez, 3B (Left)

5. Jeffers, C (Right)

6. Kiriloff, LF (Left)

7. Sano, 1B (Right)

8. Kepler, RF (Left)

9. Sanchez, DH (Right)

Let me know what you think! 

Jeffers in the 5 hole is a tough pill to swallow. I'd think he'd hit 9 in that order with Sano and Sanchez each moving up a right handed slot to 5 and 7 respectively. Jeffers has done nothing to earn a spot in the heart of a Major League lineup to this point in his career.

[GKuehl]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Jeffers in the 5 hole is a tough pill to swallow. I'd think he'd hit 9 in that order with Sano and Sanchez each moving up a right handed slot to 5 and 7 respectively. Jeffers has done nothing to earn a spot in the heart of a Major League lineup to this point in his career.

That was the toughest choice for me, since I don’t feel like any of Jeffers, Sano, or Sanchez deserve the 5-spot at this point. I chose the less known commodity in Jeffers in the hope that he can grow to deserve it, but I would quibble with slotting in Sano, Sanchez, or Urshela there. 

[MABB1959]

Finally someone moving Kepler  down.  Not sure what is wrong but his ST is not off to a good start. 

[chinmusic]

If Buxton leads off and Arraez bats in the 2 hole, AND Buxton stays healthy....

With a typical Arraez AB, Buxton should steal many bases.

Hope they give it a try.

 

 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, GKuehl said:

That was the toughest choice for me, since I don’t feel like any of Jeffers, Sano, or Sanchez deserve the 5-spot at this point. I chose the less known commodity in Jeffers in the hope that he can grow to deserve it, but I would quibble with slotting in Sano, Sanchez, or Urshela there. 

While I hate the bad Sano we tend to see at the start of seasons, he's a career 119 OPS+ and 118 wRC+ hitter. So basically 20% above league average for his career. Even last year he was 112 and 110 on OPS+ and wRC+ despite his miserable start to the year. I'd prefer him hitting 6-9 in the lineup, but at this point he's certainly the best option for the 5 hole. And Sanchez was a 99 on both OPS+ and wRC+ during his down year last year so it's hard to put him behind Jeffers and his 83 or 82 OPS+ or wRC+ in his first extended exposure last year. I just wouldn't be interested in hoping Jeffers grows into it by putting him there before he's earned it. The other 2 have shown they can be above average ML hitters when they're going right. Would definitely like Miranda to put on a show again like last year and claim that spot for himself, though!

[stringer bell]

Stolen bases are overrated, but speed is not (IMHO). Arraez should be the starting 3B most often against RH pitching. Kirilloff should be in almost every day. Sanó and Sánchez are lousy defensive players, so they should DH most often. 

[DJL44]

Buxton, Polanco, Correa is my top 3. 

37 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I want some combination of Buxton, Polanco, Correa at 1-3.

verses Lefties: Sano, Kirilloff, Urshela, Sanchez, Kepler, Jeffers

verses Righties, Kirilloff, Arraez, Sano, Kepler, Urshela, Jeffers

I agree with your top 3 - and in that order. I don't like Jeffers batting 9th ahead of Buxton. Too Slow. I'd put Kepler, Miranda or Urshela there and whoever is catching at #8.

[GKuehl]

47 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

While I hate the bad Sano we tend to see at the start of seasons, he's a career 119 OPS+ and 118 wRC+ hitter. So basically 20% above league average for his career. Even last year he was 112 and 110 on OPS+ and wRC+ despite his miserable start to the year. I'd prefer him hitting 6-9 in the lineup, but at this point he's certainly the best option for the 5 hole. And Sanchez was a 99 on both OPS+ and wRC+ during his down year last year so it's hard to put him behind Jeffers and his 83 or 82 OPS+ or wRC+ in his first extended exposure last year. I just wouldn't be interested in hoping Jeffers grows into it by putting him there before he's earned it. The other 2 have shown they can be above average ML hitters when they're going right. Would definitely like Miranda to put on a show again like last year and claim that spot for himself, though!

Yeah, I'm in agreement with you here! One question I've been wondering for a while is where Miranda might get some AB's. He's a bit redundant with many of our players, as he profiles best at 3B, 1B, and DH, same with Arraez, Urshela, Sano, Rooker, and then Sanchez and Larnach at DH. I would love if he forces his way into the lineup, but if he were, it would probably force Sano and/or Sanchez to the bench most days of the week. 

[Nashvilletwin]

I’ll be the contrarian and suggest that playing time/ABs should be based on actual production. So after about the first couple of weeks, if that suggestion holds, we should be looking at something like this:

1. Buxton CF

2. Arraez DH

3. Polanco 2B

4. Correa SS

5. Kiriloff 1B

6. Miranda 3B

7. Larnach RF

8. Jeffers C

9. Martin LF

Of these four veterans - Kepler, Sano, Urshela, and Sanchez - I have the most hope for Sano and Urshela; however, all four better get on their horses or they should be riding the pine and/or getting moved before the deadline. 

We do not have the luxury of taking a full 4-6 weeks off like last year waiting for our “proven” players - who haven’t proved much in the last year or two - to demonstrate whether they can find their groove again. 

 

[PatPfund]

Some of this has been said, but I'd go Buxton, Arraez, Correa, Polanco. Buxton gives the electric start, Arraez the patience to let Buxton steal and the OBP to add another runner, Correa the ability to knock them all in, and Polanco is the only batter left in the lineup that is scary enough to force pitchers to throw strikes to Correa.

(Maybe Sano decides to start playing this year before the Twins are mired in last place, maybe Kirrilloff and/or Larnach hit enough to be scary, maybe Urshela gets back to that point, But Max, Jeffers, and Sanchez need to start low and hit their way into any discussion of the top (half) of the order. Miranda starts the year playing every day in St Paul, and so does Rooker until he can either hit or field at the MLB level. And OMG Rocco, enough of the Sano/Sanchez inning-killing back-to-back combo!)

[mikelink45]

I love the speculation - but I do not think Arraez will be the DH - I think Sano and Sanchez and maybe Miranda are in that slot.  I just do not see Rocco going to the lighter bat even though I too like him.  Stolen Bases will never be overrated for me. I love them and the energy they give, but that is not the real issue here.  I do agree with those of you who do not want Arraez in front of Buxton.  And I do not see Arraez as a number 4 or 5 hitter.  

[jmlease1]

Here's mine, based on who is currently on the roster and who I think is most likely to be starting:

1. Buxton (CF)
2. Polanco (2B)
3. Correa (SS)
4. Kirilloff (LF)
5. Sano (1B)
6. Kepler (RF)
7. Jeffers (C)
8. Arraez (DH)
9. Urshela (3B)

Obviously there's some opportunity for movement. Arraez could easily be flipped with Kepler and so could Urshela and Jeffers (I figure Urshela might fit a bit better hitting in front of Buxton, but YMMV). This is a standard lineup, independent of pitching matchups. If we choose to stack RH vs LHP or vice-versa, it can and would change.

I'm a big fan of Kirilloff and I think he can really hit if healthy and his LH bat behind Correa would play nicely. That said, Correa doesn't have big splits between LHP/RHP (part of what makes him so valuable) so there's a lot of options. But to me the best 4 hitters on this roster Correa, Buxton, Polanco, and Kirilloff in some order (Arraez is no more than 5th to me; his OBP is great and he will rack up hits, but I really don't see him hitting for significant power basically ever and his knees will keep him from adding much on speed too). I'm sure we're going to see more than a few games with Sanchez dropping in at DH and Arraez playing 3B as well. But this is the lineup I'd run out.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Buxton, Polanco, Correa is my top 3. 

I agree with your top 3 - and in that order. I don't like Jeffers batting 9th ahead of Buxton. Too Slow. I'd put Kepler, Miranda or Urshela there and whoever is catching at #8.

Scratch Urshela - he's way slower than I imagined. Kepler's my #9 hitter.

Statcast Sprint Speed Leaderboard | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

[LA VIkes Fan]

Arraez is the issue, high OBP but poor running speed makes it hard to hit him in front of Buxton, Polanco and Correa to start off the game. We want the top three guys free to wreak havoc on the bases when possible. How about hitting Arraez on the #6 or #7 hole and putting Kepler in the #9 hole, aka the second leadoff spot? Something like this -  Buxton (CF), Polanco (2B), Correa (SS), Kirilloff (LF), Sano (1B), Urshela/Miranda (3B/DH), Arraez/Miranda (3B/DH), Jeffers/Sanchez/Godoy (C), Kepler (RF). Kepler's decent but not great OBP skills should open up more RBI opportunities for the front 1/3 of the order, and it helps hide his low batting average. It also makes it easier to play bench players without changing the batting order much - Gordon, Larnach or whoever is the 4th OF, and Miranda slot in where Kepler, Urshela or Arraez is, etc. You could get the same result by leading off Kepler but he doesn't have the OBP for the leadoff spot yet it's pretty good for a #9 guy. He also will be after the high SO/low OBP catching group so it's likely he will come up with no one base a lot if not most of the time. It's also a reflection of what Kepler is as a player - excellent defense, occasional power, low BA player, who walks a lot and runs well. Not good enough to hit in the front 6 of a solid batting order but good enough to start and play a lot, especially against RH pitching, 

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, Trov said:

I do not want anyone in front of Buxton that will hurt his speed.  His speed is one of the biggest tools he has.  He turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples.  I love Arraez for his .OBP, but I think he is better suited lower in line up because of his ability to hit all over the field.  He is one where you can do hit and runs with runners on, or he will work counts to allow for steals if you have a runner that can steal.  You put him on base in front of Buxton some times you will take extra base hits, or stolen bases away from Buck, which limits his scoring potential. 

Statcast Sprint Speed Leaderboard | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

Arraez 26.8

Sano 26.5

Larnach 26.5

Jeffers 25.8

Urshela 25.7

Sanchez 25.3

You don't want any of those guys batting #9 then. Pick from Kepler / Cave / Garlick / Rooker / Celestino / Gordon.

[USAFChief]

Deciding who is the 9th place hitter based on sprint speed seems...short sighted. 

Best hitters at the top of the lineup, worst hitters at the bottom. The rest is naval gazing.

Want more runs? Get better hitters.

[DJL44]

12 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Deciding who is the 9th place hitter based on sprint speed seems...short sighted. 

Urshela, Kepler and Jeffers/Sanchez are all basically 100 OPS+ hitters. Only one of them is fast. The bench players (Cave, Garlick, Rooker, Gordon) are also pretty fast so it makes sense to bat them 9th if they're in the lineup.

Buxton / Polanco / Correa are your top 3

Kirilloff / Sano / Arraez are your 4-6 batters.

[chaderic20]

I think I'd go:

Buxton (CF)

Arraez (DH)

Correa (SS)

Polanco (2B)

Kiriloff (LF)

Sano (1B)

Urshela (3B)

Kepler (RF)

Jeffers/Sanchez (C)