Just How Good Is Carlos Correa?

[Nash Walker]

Carlos Correa is an electrifying talent, combining an elite offensive game with incredible defense at a premier position. For those reasons, he’s perhaps the best player the Twins have had since Joe Mauer and one of the best to wear a Twins uniform. Today, Correa is expected to make his Twins debut against the Red Sox at Hammond Stadium. 

The Twins had many routes to choose from this offseason. It started with the most impactful decision: what to do with Byron Buxton. After the team rightly extended him for seven years and $100 million, it became clear that they couldn’t punt on his age-28 season. The idea of Buxton finally staying healthy and putting together an MVP-level campaign only to miss the playoffs was untenable. The Twins picked the path to competition. 

With all of the uncertainty, the money available, and the robust free-agent class, there was one certainty: the Twins weren’t landing Carlos Correa. A $300-plus million talent, Correa topped the market. The Twins have never actually paid more than $50 million to a free agent, an incredible fact and one that placed them firmly outside of Correa’s stratosphere. 

It was almost more unlikely to happen if Correa wanted a shorter-term deal. Why wouldn’t handfuls of teams line up for a shorter, high-AAV deal for Correa’s prime years? The Twins weren’t the destination, not even close. 

Until they were. 

If you’re not *still* shocked, I don’t believe you. The Twins took advantage of a surprisingly depressed market and made Correa the highest-paid infielder in MLB history. With one swift and stunning move, the Twins added the best player they’ve had since Joe Mauer’s heydays (in addition to Buxton). 

So, just how good is he?

Correa produced 7.1 r-Wins Above Replacement(WAR) in 2021, which would place him in the top-10 for all-time Twins position-player seasons. No Twins hitter has eclipsed 7 WAR since Mauer in 2009, and Chuck Knoblauch's 1996 season was the most recent before Mauer, and that was way back in 1996. 

The Twins have never had a shortstop like Correa. His great 34.1 WAR would rank first in Twins history through a position player’s age-26 season, and it isn’t close. Only four Twins hitters have ever eclipsed 6.5 WAR in a season. Correa has done it three times on his own. 

Among shortstops who played at least 500 games through their age-26 season, Correa ranks fourth in WAR, and has played in a combined 1,090 less games than the three players ahead of him. Those players? Alex Rodríguez, Cal Ripken Jr., and Robin Yount. 

And that’s just the regular season. 

The Twins’ postseason hits leader is Kirby Puckett with 30. Correa has 82. Correa has driven in 59 runs in the playoffs, more than the top-four Twins leaders combined (54). Correa has played more postseason games (79) than the Twins have in their 121-year franchise history (74). (Of note, this isn't completely an apples-to-apples comparison as MLB has more playoff rounds than there were in 1987 and 1991, which was more than 1965.)

The Twins have *never* had an in-their-prime, all-around star with Correa's track record. Only two Twins in team history can match the 7.1-WAR, 25 home run season Correa put together last year: Bob Allison in 1963, and yes, you guessed it! Mauer in 2009. 

If Correa’s career ended today, he’d rank 8th in Twins' position-player history in WAR, ahead of Allison (30.6), Gary Gaetti (27.1), and Torii Hunter (26.4). Among Twins with at least 700 games played, Correa would rank 6th in OPS+ (127), ahead of Mauer (124) and Puckett (124). Of course, Correa has played a total of zero games with the Twins to this point and we don't know exactly how long his tenure with the team will last. It certainly is exciting to think about what type of talent he can be.

Defensively, Correa saved 20 runs in 2021, per FanGraphs. Only one Twin in team history has ever eclipsed that mark: Buxton in a Platinum-Glove winning 2017 when he saved 22 runs in centerfield. Like his similarly talented teammate in centerfield, Correa does it all. 

In no way am I discounting the great players we’ve seen excel for the Twins. They have a rich history of outstanding, Hall-of-Fame level performers. Correa tracks for similar status, and he’s in the middle of his prime. Enjoy the (likely one-year) ride. 

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[Tiantwindup]

Great job of putting this signing in context. Getting ahead of things here, but if he has a typical Correa year, would Twins have a chance to keep him for year 2 (and potentially year 3) by upping his salary to, say, $40M?

[PopRiveter]

That was a fun read. I appreciate the context. I’ve admired his game from afar, but didn’t quite grasp the level of his performance as you present it. 
Feels awfully good to have a top shelf shortstop on the club.

[Whitey333]

Great to have a real superstar on the team.  As far as it making them a contender I'm not so sure.  Yes he makes them better assuming he puts up his normal numbers.  I just can't see the Twins as legit contenders unless and until they add a veteran starter or two on the pitching staff. It was a stunning and exciting move by the Twins.  Let's hope it all works out.  The current team with it's inadequate pitching is probably not more than a 500 team certainly not a contender.  If, however, we add quality to the pitching that could vault us into the playoffs.  

[mikelink45]

I love having great players in the field and lineup - we have enjoyed some great ones and Correa should give us a great year of good memories, but the caution is - Mike Trout - the player who is touted as the greatest player in the game today.  How many playoffs has his team gotten to in his career?  Unlike basketball one great player does not mean a team is going to win.  If he were a pitcher that made more difference, but then there is the Carlton year where he won 27 on a team that won a total of 62 games.  We win this year if Josh Winder is rookie of the year and Correa makes him and the other pitchers better because he gives them security on ground balls. 

[EGFTShaw]

3 hours ago, Tiantwindup said:

Great job of putting this signing in context. Getting ahead of things here, but if he has a typical Correa year, would Twins have a chance to keep him for year 2 (and potentially year 3) by upping his salary to, say, $40M?

I think next year is an unknown at this point.  Unless something dramatic happens I think it is safe to assume that CC will opt out.

But I wouldn't rule out the Twins keeping him.  It really depends on a couple of things.

1) the chemistry between the Twins (players and FO) and CC
2) what the Twins are doing to put together a WS Winning team.
3) how CC and his family like the TC area.

TS

[chinmusic]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I love having great players in the field and lineup - we have enjoyed some great ones and Correa should give us a great year of good memories, but the caution is - Mike Trout - the player who is touted as the greatest player in the game today.  How many playoffs has his team gotten to in his career?  Unlike basketball one great player does not mean a team is going to win.  If he were a pitcher that made more difference, but then there is the Carlton year where he won 27 on a team that won a total of 62 games.  We win this year if Josh Winder is rookie of the year and Correa makes him and the other pitchers better because he gives them security on ground balls. 

I'm reading "The Baseball 100"  (Joe Posnanski)

He ranks Steve Carlton #63 all time.

In 1972, the Phillies actually won only 59 games, with Lefty winning 27!

What an eye-popping stat!

 

[RJA]

Great detailed article.  Thanks, Nash.  What will be fun to watch is the WAR contest between Correa and Buxton IF Buck (and Correa) stay healthy all year.  Buck had 4.2 WAR last year in 254 plate appearances which is really amazing.  Actually, we have two superstars on this team.  Let's pray for health.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

The quote you used about the Twins never paying more than $50 million to a FA was not accurate. Gleeman's quote, which you referenced, was that "Prior to Josh Donaldson" the Twins had never paid more that $50 to a FA. Otherwise your article was outstanding (as most of your articles are) and I really appreciate the research and the optimism. Thank you. 

[Heiny]

1 hour ago, EGFTShaw said:

I think next year is an unknown at this point.  Unless something dramatic happens I think it is safe to assume that CC will opt out.

But I wouldn't rule out the Twins keeping him.  It really depends on a couple of things.

1) the chemistry between the Twins (players and FO) and CC
2) what the Twins are doing to put together a WS Winning team.
3) how CC and his family like the TC area.

TS

Is it possible that a player has an MVP type season,  and enjoys playing here so much,  and also decides that 30.5 "Million Dollars"  is enough to play another beautiful summer in Minnesota?  I see that as being in the realm of possibility.  Call me crazy.

[Nash Walker]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

The quote you used about the Twins never paying more than $50 million to a FA was not accurate. Gleeman's quote, which you referenced, was that "Prior to Josh Donaldson" the Twins had never paid more that $50 to a FA. Otherwise your article was outstanding (as most of your articles are) and I really appreciate the research and the optimism. Thank you. 

Thank you so much! I added "actually paid" in there to clarify. The most they've ever paid is $49 million to Ervin, per Gleeman. Donaldson got something like $30 million from them. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

39 minutes ago, Nash Walker said:

Thank you so much! I added "actually paid" in there to clarify. The most they've ever paid is $49 million to Ervin, per Gleeman. Donaldson got something like $30 million from them. 

You are correct. Thanks for clarifying. 

[Michael (ClassicMNTwins)]

I think it will be a very pleasant revelation to Twins fan’s re: just exactly what impact a top flight shortstop can make. Minnesota hasn’t had a 7+ WAR shortstop since Zoilo Versalles in 1965. Yeah, barring injury, it could be incredible with this fellow anchoring the infield!

[EGFTShaw]

57 minutes ago, Heiny said:

Is it possible that a player has an MVP type season,  and enjoys playing here so much,  and also decides that 30.5 "Million Dollars"  is enough to play another beautiful summer in Minnesota?  I see that as being in the realm of possibility.  Call me crazy.

OK...LOL...you're crazy...

You are also Not Wrong...

 

[Old fox]

I think the Twins are in a very good position to retain Correa because they have set a definite value of $35.1 m. till 2025. If the market determines Correa’s value is (example) $40 m. , then, the Twins could extend Correa and offer to increase another $5 m per years remaining years of contract and increase the length of years. What’s most important is the relationship building between the Twins and Correa. The market place will remain limited because of economics and philosophy.  I congratulate ownership on its motto “we will participate in big dollar contracts are fine but on a shorter term of years”. The “Correa deal” is proof of their ideals.  Now on the current situation of pitching to go either trades verses prospects is philosophical and that’s ok. The question is where do we put our trust? The Twins history of prospects making it to the big leagues every year is lacking consistency. But trades don’t always work out either.  Another question is do we trust another rookie until Maeda comes back when he ready? Do we wait until the trading dead line to trade? Do the Twins make the trade market or wait until the market comes comes to the Twins?  How & what value do you assign to prospects? What is the Twins plan of priorities? 
A facts we know now is the Twins are lacking in left handed starting pitchers. Manaea (A’s) or Means (O’s) would appear to fill the void adequately and Montas (A’s) would fine. We have to remember the age differential is only 3 years between prospects & trade candidates. The trade candidates salaries are within Twins assigned budget values.  Candidates ages are 28 & 29 which are +++.  The question is re-sign ability of candidates at market price? Therefore, I prefer a trade route over promoting a prospect.

[twinssporto]

Giddy up! Can't wait to watch this guy in a Twins uniform...I know we're stressing about year two but let's see what happens. This could be a great opportunity for Correa and Minnesota. The drama is barely palatable. 

Win Twins!

[RpR]

Passing on Simmons fielding; he is the best hitting and fielding SS the Twins have had since Leo Cardenas, who had his last great years with the Twins.

Simmons had a WAR of 7.9 one year also.

[jimbo92107]

Regardless what production the Twins get from Correa, his incredible technique and work habits will be worth possible future gold gloves for Gordon, Martin, Lewis, Palacios, Miranda, and whoever else gets to take notes and observe this defensive marvel up close. 

Correa's defensive dive to his left was a perfect example. Not only did he dive and field a rising bounce; he then popped to his feet in perfect position, on balance and ready to deliver an accurate throw. Some guys pop to their feet, but then need to correct their body angle. Other guys pop to their feet, then deliver a wild throw. Correa shows how to do it perfectly. That's how you win a gold glove. That's how you win games.

[stringer bell]

8 hours ago, RJA said:

Great detailed article.  Thanks, Nash.  What will be fun to watch is the WAR contest between Correa and Buxton IF Buck (and Correa) stay healthy all year.  Buck had 4.2 WAR last year in 254 plate appearances which is really amazing.  Actually, we have two superstars on this team.  Let's pray for health.

I was thinking the same thing. Correa and Buxton could be two of the very best players in all of baseball and either could exceed  7 or even 8 WAR. 

[gil4]

12 hours ago, Heiny said:

Is it possible that a player has an MVP type season,  and enjoys playing here so much,  and also decides that 30.5 "Million Dollars"  is enough to play another beautiful summer in Minnesota?  I see that as being in the realm of possibility.  Call me crazy.

When will he have to make that decision? November?  He will likely have forgotten there even was a summer by then.

(I probably should have led with the "you're crazy,"  but two weeks ago we would have said that about anyone who thought we would sign him.)

[gil4]

7 hours ago, RpR said:

Simmons had a WAR of 7.9 one year also.

That is hard to believe. He looked like he didn't even know how to hold a bat last year.  I was extra disappointed because I was excited when we signed him - he played his college ball in our small town in western Oklahoma.