Josh Winder Shouldn't Make the Opening Day Rotation

[Seth Stohs]

My thought at this point... if you're going to get Montas/Manaea/Castillo/Mahle/Means/etc., great... if they're just going to sign more Chi Chi Rodriguez's, then go with Winder. He's 25 already. He's strong and healthy. Let him work. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

6 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

My thought at this point... go with Winder. He's 25 already. He's strong and healthy. Let him work. 

First person to point out Winder isn’t getting any younger.  I say start him in the rotation.

[tony&rodney]

Trade? Yes. Otherwise ... Gray, Ober, Winder, Ryan, Bundy.

[Whitey333]

I can't imagine too many people looking at the starting staff consider it major league as is currently constructed.  I keep hoping and waiting for one or two more quality starters to be added.  Correa is a great addition if it is followed up with some major league pitchers, not all of them major league ready pitchers.  To spend $35 million one on player without upgrading pitching seems foolhearty.  Unless, of course Correa can pitch.

[miracleb]

Why not have the guy come up a fail a bit at 25 and then come back at age 26 to be rock solid.  Use the Berrios as the rule...instead of the exception.  Last year would have been a perfect opportunity.  Of course, keeping control of them for an additional year is the reason you wouln't do that.   Again....Berrios........

[Dave The Dastardly]

15 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

I'm going to approach this from a numbers/roster management perspective. 

1. My preference is to trade for a starter vs. signing a free agent, for two reasons. First, what's out there on the trade market is better. Second, any free agent signed at this point is going to need significant ramp-up time anyway, so they aren't going to be available until mid- to late-April. 
2. The 40-man is full, with the potential exception of being able to move Enlow to the 60-man.
3. A "normal" roster has 13 pitchers and 13 position players these days. However, a 28-man roster seems to be a given for the first few weeks of the season. The extra two spots will almost certainly go to pitchers, leaving us with a 15-man staff. That's a one, followed by a five -- 15. 
4. According to MLB.com, there are currently 17 pitchers on the 40-man roster who haven't already been optioned to the minors. If you assume that Gray, Bundy, Ober and Ryan are in the rotation, that leaves Alcala, Cotton, Duffey, Duran, Jax, Moran, Rogers, Romero, Smith, Stashak, Thielbar, Thorpe, and Winder -- 13 guys for the remaining 11 spots on the roster.
5. In the first three times through the rotation, the No. 5 spot gets the Dodgers, Boston and The Team That Plays in the Monument to Cement, But Whom Shall Not Be Named (hereinafter, "TTTPitMtCBWSNBN"). While I'm cautious by nature and would like to see Winder get more AAA innings in general, I'm especially cautious about throwing him to those guys for his first three major league starts.
6. I'm going to say it, folks. Bullpen. Even if the first three games bring less than stellar starts, a bullpen should be relatively rested for games 5, 10 and 15. Not only do I not want to throw Winder into the matchups against LAD, Bos and TTTPitMtCBWSNBN, but those games are a recipe for bullpen. With an 11-man bullpen, you play matchups throughout the game, likely no one seeing a batter twice. And if they score big, as they are likely to do, hello Lewis Thorpe -- take one for the team. (Also, I try to sandwich the bullpen game by putting Gray and Bundy in the Nos. 1 and 4 spots, with the hope of them saving the bullpen to at least some extent.) 
7. In that scenario, I roll Winder off to St. Paul, where he pitches a managed workload (60-75 pitches?) that saves his bullets. By the end of April, when the roster goes back to 26, he would be able to come up and get teams like Detroit, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Oakland, Houston, teams with a greater opportunity for early success than having to go against LAD, Bos and TTTPitMtCBWSNBN.
8. With Gray, Bundy, Ober and Ryan in the rotation, the number of innings they threw last year, and the inevitable injuries that happen, it's a given that we are going to be calling on additional guys to move into the rotation throughout the year. I'd rather have the next guys up be someone who is coming off success at AAA than someone who is struggling. If that's Winder, great. But if he's been struggling, I'd rather have that struggling happen east of the river, rather than west. Said another way, waiting until late-April allows the No. 5 spot to go to the best of Winder, Balazovic, Sands, etc., all guys that we are likely to see at some point this year if they stay healthy. 
9. Waiting to bring Winder or one of the others up also provides a little time for some guys to pitch themselves off the 40-man, etc., which will be necessary for future roster management, including if they want to use Coulombe, Gonzalez, Minaya and Smeltzer if they've shown themselves worthy.
10. So yeah, I send him down, with the hope of debuting in the Detroit or Baltimore series in late April/early May.
11. But I still try to trade for a starter or two.  

Love the TTTPitMtCBWSNBN!!

[terrydactyls]

There is always the possibility that Winder (or one of the other young guns) turns out similar to Dwight Gooden (minus the drug problems) or Mark, the Bird, Fidrych.  The trade market appears to be non-existent at the moment so give the kids a chance.  The Twins' will soon have to make Rule 5 or trade capital decisions on these guys, so now would be a great time to see what their value really is.

[Heiny]

17 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

I'm going to approach this from a numbers/roster management perspective. 

1. My preference is to trade for a starter vs. signing a free agent, for two reasons. First, what's out there on the trade market is better. Second, any free agent signed at this point is going to need significant ramp-up time anyway, so they aren't going to be available until mid- to late-April. 
2. The 40-man is full, with the potential exception of being able to move Enlow to the 60-man.
3. A "normal" roster has 13 pitchers and 13 position players these days. However, a 28-man roster seems to be a given for the first few weeks of the season. The extra two spots will almost certainly go to pitchers, leaving us with a 15-man staff. That's a one, followed by a five -- 15. 
4. According to MLB.com, there are currently 17 pitchers on the 40-man roster who haven't already been optioned to the minors. If you assume that Gray, Bundy, Ober and Ryan are in the rotation, that leaves Alcala, Cotton, Duffey, Duran, Jax, Moran, Rogers, Romero, Smith, Stashak, Thielbar, Thorpe, and Winder -- 13 guys for the remaining 11 spots on the roster.
5. In the first three times through the rotation, the No. 5 spot gets the Dodgers, Boston and The Team That Plays in the Monument to Cement, But Whom Shall Not Be Named (hereinafter, "TTTPitMtCBWSNBN"). While I'm cautious by nature and would like to see Winder get more AAA innings in general, I'm especially cautious about throwing him to those guys for his first three major league starts.
6. I'm going to say it, folks. Bullpen. Even if the first three games bring less than stellar starts, a bullpen should be relatively rested for games 5, 10 and 15. Not only do I not want to throw Winder into the matchups against LAD, Bos and TTTPitMtCBWSNBN, but those games are a recipe for bullpen. With an 11-man bullpen, you play matchups throughout the game, likely no one seeing a batter twice. And if they score big, as they are likely to do, hello Lewis Thorpe -- take one for the team. (Also, I try to sandwich the bullpen game by putting Gray and Bundy in the Nos. 1 and 4 spots, with the hope of them saving the bullpen to at least some extent.) 
7. In that scenario, I roll Winder off to St. Paul, where he pitches a managed workload (60-75 pitches?) that saves his bullets. By the end of April, when the roster goes back to 26, he would be able to come up and get teams like Detroit, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Oakland, Houston, teams with a greater opportunity for early success than having to go against LAD, Bos and TTTPitMtCBWSNBN.
8. With Gray, Bundy, Ober and Ryan in the rotation, the number of innings they threw last year, and the inevitable injuries that happen, it's a given that we are going to be calling on additional guys to move into the rotation throughout the year. I'd rather have the next guys up be someone who is coming off success at AAA than someone who is struggling. If that's Winder, great. But if he's been struggling, I'd rather have that struggling happen east of the river, rather than west. Said another way, waiting until late-April allows the No. 5 spot to go to the best of Winder, Balazovic, Sands, etc., all guys that we are likely to see at some point this year if they stay healthy. 
9. Waiting to bring Winder or one of the others up also provides a little time for some guys to pitch themselves off the 40-man, etc., which will be necessary for future roster management, including if they want to use Coulombe, Gonzalez, Minaya and Smeltzer if they've shown themselves worthy.
10. So yeah, I send him down, with the hope of debuting in the Detroit or Baltimore series in late April/early May.
11. But I still try to trade for a starter or two.  

Well thought out.  Thanks for that perspective.

[Mike h]

I think it's important to remember that Winder (and the other rookies) are not auditioning for the ace spot in the rotation. Whomever claims the no. 5 spot will be matched up against other teams' no. 5 starters. There are A LOT of lousy no. 5 starters out there (would you want to trade for one of them?) So I really like how our in-house candidates match up there, regardless of who we play.

If Ober and Ryan occupy slots 3 and 4, I like the matchups there as well. But I would be Leary of moving them up to 2 and 3. So what we lack is a good no. 2. Right now it looks like we could lose almost all of the 30+ starts out of that position. 

So bottom line, it's crucial that we get a solid top-of-line starter right out of the gate, and we need not worry one iota about getting a new no.5 guy.

 

 

[puckstopper1]

3 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

I can't imagine too many people looking at the starting staff consider it major league as is currently constructed.  I keep hoping and waiting for one or two more quality starters to be added.  Correa is a great addition if it is followed up with some major league pitchers, not all of them major league ready pitchers.  To spend $35 million one on player without upgrading pitching seems foolhearty.  Unless, of course Correa can pitch.

I agree Whitey!  The FO stunned us all with the signing of Correa, but this team is not a serious contender as it is currently constructed.  We can hope and speculate all we want about who the FO may add to the rotation, but until that happens, Winder should get a long hard look.

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, Mike h said:

I think it's important to remember that Winder (and the other rookies) are not auditioning for the ace spot in the rotation. Whomever claims the no. 5 spot will be matched up against other teams' no. 5 starters. There are A LOT of lousy no. 5 starters out there (would you want to trade for one of them?) So I really like how our in-house candidates match up there, regardless of who we play.

If Ober and Ryan occupy slots 3 and 4, I like the matchups there as well. But I would be Leary of moving them up to 2 and 3. So what we lack is a good no. 2. Right now it looks like we could lose almost all of the 30+ starts out of that position. 

So bottom line, it's crucial that we get a solid top-of-line starter right out of the gate, and we need not worry one iota about getting a new no.5 guy.

I share your general lack of enthusiasm about the role of the #5 starter.  It's a role that lacks a consistent usage pattern, and generally is occupied by one of three types: 1) rookie trying to establish himself, 2) veteran looking to re-establish something or else disappear from the majors, 3) Andrew Albers on yet another emergency start.

For practical purposes, in my world there is no such thing as a #5 starter, merely pitchers on their way up or on their way down.  I suppose the rare exception would be a contending team so deep in starters that they say "nah, we're good" to any thought of improving the rotation..

When I see someone's attempt at a prospect scouting report that says "ceiling is #5 starter," I think to myself either this player is not really a starting pitching prospect or else this writer is not really a scout. .

The team should be trying to acquire talent, period.

[jorgenswest]

I wondered how many AAA starts young pitchers from the Indians or Rays see before their debut.

• Shane Bieber: 8 AAA starts
• Cal Quantrill: 13 AAA starts with SD prior to trade 
• Zach Plesac: 4 AAA starts
• Aaron Civale: 8 AAA starts
• Tristan McKenzie: 0 AAA starts. Was sent down for 5 AAA starts in second season and returned with success.
• Shane McClanahan: 0 AAA starts
• Luis Patino: 0 AAA starts. Was sent down for 7 starts and returned with success. Acquired in trade from San Diego

I would go with Winder with Balazovic and Duran not far behind.

 

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

Winder is 25.  There is no reason to keep him down if the talent is screaming "ready".

[USAFChief]

8 hours ago, ashbury said:

I share your general lack of enthusiasm about the role of the #5 starter.  It's a role that lacks a consistent usage pattern, and generally is occupied by one of three types: 1) rookie trying to establish himself, 2) veteran looking to re-establish something or else disappear from the majors, 3) Andrew Albers on yet another emergency start.

For practical purposes, in my world there is no such thing as a #5 starter, merely pitchers on their way up or on their way down.  I suppose the rare exception would be a contending team so deep in starters that they say "nah, we're good" to any thought of improving the rotation..

When I see someone's attempt at a prospect scouting report that says "ceiling is #5 starter," I think to myself either this player is not really a starting pitching prospect or else this writer is not really a scout. .

The team should be trying to acquire talent, period.

I look at more in terms of, a guy is a "number 5 starter" in name only. He pitches every 5th day, just like the other starters. Games he starts count as 1 W or 1 L for the team, the same as the other starters.

The goal should be to have a better starter than than the other team, every day. Not some range of good to bad starters. Just good ones. 

 

[Mike h]

I agree, all starters need to be ml ready, and ideally on any given day our starter would be better than their starter. Hence the matchups. They don't pick a starter out of a hat, they use the best available starter every day. I can't believe I need to explain this. On opening day it's our best pitcher against their best pitcher. On day 2, it's still our best pitcher against their best pitcher, but yesterday's pitchers are not available, so who is the best of the rest? On day 3 it's still our best against their best (it's always that way) not counting the first two because neither is available. So it continues through no. 4 or 5. So what I'm saying is when the opposition has their best 4 pitchers unavailable, they have to use their 5th best starter, and so do we (usually) and this is where I think the Twins have an advantage. We don't know who that will be yet, but the candidates are strong, IMHO Evan better than other teams end-of-the-rotation guys that we might pick up in a trade. We don't need to make that trade. Save our prospects.  Our no. 5 guy can beat their no. 5 guy as is. And that win at no. 5 is just as important as the win between the aces. And I right now I think we can bank a win at no.5 with more confidence that a win between the aces. So one last time - it's all about the matchups.

[Alex Schieferdecker]

Without a trade, the Twins should go with Winder. Regardless of whether he deals or gets rocked, he'll be on a tight pitch count like Ober was last year. He should be able to be slowly introduced to the majors.

It's hard to make too much of his stats at AAA last year given that shortly after he started to struggle, he was shut down. It seems reasonable to surmise that some of his issues later on came from fatigue and injury.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Mike h said:

I agree, all starters need to be ml ready, and ideally on any given day our starter would be better than their starter. Hence the matchups. They don't pick a starter out of a hat, they use the best available starter every day. I can't believe I need to explain this. On opening day it's our best pitcher against their best pitcher. On day 2, it's still our best pitcher against their best pitcher, but yesterday's pitchers are not available, so who is the best of the rest? On day 3 it's still our best against their best (it's always that way) not counting the first two because neither is available. So it continues through no. 4 or 5. So what I'm saying is when the opposition has their best 4 pitchers unavailable, they have to use their 5th best starter, and so do we (usually) and this is where I think the Twins have an advantage. We don't know who that will be yet, but the candidates are strong, IMHO Evan better than other teams end-of-the-rotation guys that we might pick up in a trade. We don't need to make that trade. Save our prospects.  Our no. 5 guy can beat their no. 5 guy as is. And that win at no. 5 is just as important as the win between the aces. And I right now I think we can bank a win at no.5 with more confidence that a win between the aces. So one last time - it's all about the matchups.

It doesn't work that way.

"Nr 1" vs "Nr 1" followed by "Nr 2 vs Nr 2", etc etc lasts one time through the rotation. Maybe twice through, if everything lines up perfectly. Perhaps again right after the AS break.

After that, due to rain outs, differing schedules, injuries, etc etc it's random chance for the other 90 percent of the season. You're as likely to get the other guys "Nr 1" vs your "Nr 5" as "5 vs 5."

Get the best starters you can. Get 5 "Nr 1's." Heck, get 8 of them, since you'll need at least 8 starters to get through most seasons, sometimes more.

"He's just a number 5 starter" reminds me of "he's just fine because he'll bat 9th." 

Faulty logic.

 

[tony&rodney]

USAFChief is correct that as the season goes along it is usually a mixture of which pitcher lines up against which opponent's pitcher. The start of the season and immediately after the All Star Game are different.

I would begin the season with Gray, Ober, Ryan, and Winder. This leaves Bundy and Gray for the Dodgers. Unless the Twins add an experienced "good" pitcher via trade, they will need to use Winder and he is ready to go now. The only other option looks to be Smeltzer. I'm choosing Winder at the moment.

[Jham]

He's 25. He won't throw 95mph forever. Will his stuff play at 91?