Are the Twins done making moves?

[TopGunn#22]

I think Doc Bauer laid this all out quite nicely in his post.  It's obvious the A's demands are STEEP.  Otherwise a deal would have already been made by the Twins or a dozen other 2022 "contenders" to get either Montas, Manaea...or both.  The Reds have said Castillo is off the table, but now he's hurt.  He has a "sore shoulder."  That makes dealing for him impossible until he can prove he's ready to pitch.  Mahle would be a good target, but the Reds have to have somebody to pitch.  Finally, with all the young arms the Twins have literally knocking on the door, they just MUST provide an opportunity for a couple of them right out of spring training.  To me, that means Winder is the #5 and I'd have Duran up as an "opener" and/or long relief guy.  I still think the Twins WILL pull of a deal, and I think it will be with Oakland.  But it won't happen for a couple weeks.  The best OF'er available is Conforto.  But as a LH hitter and with Kiriloff & Larnach I just don't see a fit.  If it was up to me, I'd stick Miranda in LF opening day and see what happens.  I'm not too hot on recycling the Garlick's and Rooker's.  And my opinion of Rooker kind of bugs me.  I was really happy when they drafted him.  He was an SEC Triple Crown winner !!!  Will Clark and Raffy Palmiero have been the others.  But what I've seen of him so far is just uninspiring.   

[cheeseheadgophfan]

What would it take to acquire John Means from Baltimore?  He just had a contentious arbitration hearing with the O's....they are terrible....want no payroll....and he's under team control for 3 more years (i think?).  He's also left handed which this starting staff could definitely use.  If we're going to overpay for someone, this is the kind of guy that I'd love to take a shot at.  Would Balazovich, Duran and Celestino get it done?  

[GNess]

It would be a surprise if FO doesn't make a SP move before the opener. Means one of three things noted in others' comments:

1. Price of a trade deemed too high. 

2. FO has seen enough in young SP prospects that they are willing to see what transpires.

3. Both.

[terrydactyls]

16 minutes ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

What would it take to acquire John Means from Baltimore?  He just had a contentious arbitration hearing with the O's....they are terrible....want no payroll....and he's under team control for 3 more years (i think?).  He's also left handed which this starting staff could definitely use.  If we're going to overpay for someone, this is the kind of guy that I'd love to take a shot at.  Would Balazovich, Duran and Celestino get it done?  

Celestino is the only safety net if Buxton gets hurt.  Add Steer (redundant at 2B) instead?  And replace Duran with Strotman.  I would do that deal.

[Utah Twins Fan]

The thing is I know we all want starters but I’m actually concerned about lack of arms in bullpen as well. If we don’t have solid 4th/5th starter or even 3rd we really need a solid bullpen which I don’t know if I can truly say they have right now. I would love them to go and solidify that as well.

[Dman]

16 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Some people won't like to hear this....but this organization has a crap ton of near-ready, interesting pitchers.  I'm not paying through the nose for Oakland's guys because they have all the leverage.  

Let's see what Ryan, Ober, Gray, Bundy, and Winder/Sands/Whoever can do.  And let's keep bringing up the Balazovics and Durans when we need to.  This offense can keep us in it while we let the young arms thrive.

I still might sign Cueto as Bundy insurance though.

This is what I think as well.  I think Winder if he shows he can handle it gets the 5th spot and the Twins at least early in the season can piggy back guys for bullpen starts as a 5th starter if they don't think he is ready.  I don't think the Twins are as desperate as Beane thinks they are.  If Oakland doesn't unload Manea and Montas before the season starts it seems like a dangerous game of chicken to me.  If either pitcher performs poorly or gets injured then Oakland loses all leverage and all value for the player.  I get them checking to see if they can get an overpay but their strategy could backfire on them if they don't move them before the season starts.

[LastOnePicked]

3 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Did she want you to be wealthier, wiser, or taller?

All of the above. I got a decent job and then told her one out of three in baseball makes a man an all-star.

[stringer bell]

Okay, The Athletics are trying to make the best deal as they clear the shelves. One thing the Twins' FO is good at is being patient. I think the Twins have shown they are willing to make a big move. They shouldn't overpay at this point.

[Utah Twins Fan]

1 hour ago, GNess said:

It would be a surprise if FO doesn't make a SP move before the opener. Means one of three things noted in others' comments:

1. Price of a trade deemed too high. 

2. FO has seen enough in young SP prospects that they are willing to see what transpires.

3. Both.

 

8 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Okay, The Athletics are trying to make the best deal as they clear the shelves. One thing the Twins' FO is good at is being patient. I think the Twins have shown they are willing to make a big move. They shouldn't overpay at this point.

Just one man’s opinion I still think they pivot and trade with someone like the Marlins or Orioles. 

[MACKDI]

They better do something to get some good pitching or Carlos Correa will be one and done !!!

[Utah Twins Fan]

8 minutes ago, MACKDI said:

They better do something to get some good pitching or Carlos Correa will be one and done !!!

He’s more than likely already one and done I’m afraid 

[KirbyDome89]

16 hours ago, PseudoSABR said:

I think waiting until the deadline not only presents more clarity on the youngsters, it helps our top prospects rebuild value, whom all slid during the last year.

Or the season could be over by that time due in large part to the pitching, a la last year. Purchasing at the deadline isn't likely to be any less painful. 

[TheLeviathan]

27 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Or the season could be over by that time due in large part to the pitching, a la last year. Purchasing at the deadline isn't likely to be any less painful. 

Given recent trade deadlines it is highly, highly unlikely these trade demands stick.  Hell, by next week it might dip.

We shouldn't pay for Montas like he's Walker Bueller.

[KirbyDome89]

17 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Given recent trade deadlines it is highly, highly unlikely these trade demands stick.  Hell, by next week it might dip.

We shouldn't pay for Montas like he's Walker Bueller.

I'm not advocating for them to empty the cupboards. The ask won't be as high, but I expect the pain to be equivalent if you're only getting .5 years of Manea or 1.5 years of Montas. I'm indifferent regarding which name(s) are added, but the staff needs help. I'm pushing back against waiting to add talent, not the cost to do so. 

[TheLeviathan]

10 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I'm not advocating for them to empty the cupboards. The ask won't be as high, but I expect the pain to be equivalent if you're only getting .5 years of Manea or 1.5 years of Montas. I'm indifferent regarding which name(s) are added, but the staff needs help. I'm pushing back against waiting to add talent, not the cost to do so. 

What if all the trade costs are silly?

[KirbyDome89]

5 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

What if all the trade costs are silly?

Rethink the approach to pitching that got you to this point. 

On a serious note, why are we assuming the cost/reward ratio skews far enough in the Twins' favor that they're comfortable making a deal in July? If it does, and the Twins are willing to pull the trigger, how many other teams will be as well? Is holding out hope that all the pieces fall into place in July really worth potentially losing a season?

If there's no real intent to compete this year then this whole sidebar is moot and we're veering toward another discussion entirely. 

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Rethink the approach to pitching that got you to this point. 

On a serious note, why are we assuming the cost/reward ratio skews far enough in the Twins' favor that they're comfortable making a deal in July? If it does, and the Twins are willing to pull the trigger, how many other teams will be as well? Is holding out hope that all the pieces fall into place in July really worth potentially losing a season?

If there's no real intent to compete this year then this whole sidebar is moot and we're veering toward another discussion entirely. 

I don't see why the team can't intend to compete and still scoff at bad trade demands.  Yes, it's a crappy spot to be in of their own making, but I'm not going to chase bad decisions with more bad decisions.

[KirbyDome89]

6 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

I don't see why the team can't intend to compete and still scoff at bad trade demands.  Yes, it's a crappy spot to be in of their own making, but I'm not going to chase bad decisions with more bad decisions.

This started as a discussion about whether or not waiting until the deadline was the right call. In that case you're still likely paying a premium in addition to rolling the dice on first half performance and availability. Sure, don't double down, but standing pat isn't any sort of declaration either. If this is basically the staff we're watching on opening day, well, yeah....

[TheLeviathan]

8 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

This started as a discussion about whether or not waiting until the deadline was the right call. In that case you're still likely paying a premium in addition to rolling the dice on first half performance and availability. Sure, don't double down, but standing pat isn't any sort of declaration either. If this is basically the staff we're watching on opening day, well, yeah....

Actually, the conversation started with my comment, which Brock responded to, and Psuedo elaborated on.  Narrowing it like you are removes all the context.  The point you are responding to is all some form of "In lieu of reasonable options now....here are some reasons it isn't all bad to wait"  

And that's the thing, it isn't "standing pat" and waiting for the deadline, it's walking away from an unreasonable demand.  Now, admittedly, that's speculation.  Perhaps Oakland's demands are reasonable.  Evidence would seem to indicate they are not, but it isn't a certainty.  It's unfortunate we are choosing between "get hosed in a trade vs. roll with this rotation" but it is what it is.  I blame the FO for being in this position, but I don't blame them from making the decision to wait.

I'm with you that the rotation is worrisome.  There is hope too.  And in baseball....things can look really different, really fast.

[Squirrel]

1 minute ago, TheLeviathan said:

And that's the thing, it isn't "standing pat" and waiting for the deadline, it's walking away from an unreasonable demand.  Now, admittedly, that's speculation. 

The fact that several teams were interested in the A’s pitchers and there wasn’t a trade, or even a ‘someone is close’ rumor, for EITHER pitcher, makes that speculation a fairly logical conclusion. 

[EGFTShaw]

On 3/25/2022 at 4:28 PM, lecroy24fan said:

Martin and Arraez won't get Montas alone, much less both.

I am not sure how much value I put in Baseball Trade Simulator from Baseball Trade Values  but it works in their vacuum.

I agree with you though, in that M&M for A&M isn't good enough in the A's mind.

 

TS

[PseudoSABR]

20 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Rethink the approach to pitching that got you to this point. 

On a serious note, why are we assuming the cost/reward ratio skews far enough in the Twins' favor that they're comfortable making a deal in July? If it does, and the Twins are willing to pull the trigger, how many other teams will be as well? Is holding out hope that all the pieces fall into place in July really worth potentially losing a season?

If there's no real intent to compete this year then this whole sidebar is moot and we're veering toward another discussion entirely. 

It's that our top prospects have diminished value now.  Other teams don't necessarily have that problem.  

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Actually, the conversation started with my comment, which Brock responded to, and Psuedo elaborated on.  Narrowing it like you are removes all the context.  The point you are responding to is all some form of "In lieu of reasonable options now....here are some reasons it isn't all bad to wait"  

And that's the thing, it isn't "standing pat" and waiting for the deadline, it's walking away from an unreasonable demand.  Now, admittedly, that's speculation.  Perhaps Oakland's demands are reasonable.  Evidence would seem to indicate they are not, but it isn't a certainty.  It's unfortunate we are choosing between "get hosed in a trade vs. roll with this rotation" but it is what it is.  I blame the FO for being in this position, but I don't blame them from making the decision to wait.

I'm with you that the rotation is worrisome.  There is hope too.  And in baseball....things can look really different, really fast.

Yep, and when I jumped in it was to point out that the tradeoff for the rotation clarity at the deadline very well could be a lost season. That's a particularly bad reason to wait. 

I'm fine with moving on if the price is high, but pivot to something else. Hell, another Odorizzi trade takes a massive amount of stress off the unproven arms. That of course assumes someone is available. Rolling the current staff out to start the season is the definition of standing pat to me. 

I get that hope springs eternal this time of year, but I'm so over being sold on it. 

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, PseudoSABR said:

It's that our top prospects have diminished value now.  Other teams don't necessarily have that problem.  

Eh, maybe? That sword also cuts both ways. Some of these guys are going to struggle early on and/or bust.

SWR logged limited innings with inconsistent results and Toronto was able to package him for Berrios. I'm not sure how diminished the prospects are. 

[TheLeviathan]

3 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Yep, and when I jumped in it was to point out that the tradeoff for the rotation clarity at the deadline very well could be a lost season. That's a particularly bad reason to wait. 

I'm fine with moving on if the price is high, but pivot to something else. Hell, another Odorizzi trade takes a massive amount of stress off the unproven arms. That of course assumes someone is available. Rolling the current staff out to start the season is the definition of standing pat to me. 

I get that hope springs eternal this time of year, but I'm so over being sold on it. 

I share you hope that they are still looking for reasonable options for sure.

[curt1965]

I don’t mean to be redundant, but the Twins are relying on:

1.) A cast off that his team sought to move,

2.) 2-unproven guys with limited experience

3.) A retread that has been terrible for the last few years,

5.)An unproven player the FO is going to pull out of their ass?

 

As excited asI was to get Correa, the pitching staff has been a bottomless pit!  Remember last year’s additions? Twin’s fans better come early to watch Correa: he is going to ask to get out by June 1!

[Number3]

So the pitching staff is an issue this year? I'm shocked. I'm flabbergasted. Since when has pitching been an issue? How about 1901............2022 and every year in between. If only Walter Johnson could get some help.

[dex8425]

On 3/25/2022 at 3:28 PM, lecroy24fan said:

Martin and Arraez won't get Montas alone, much less both.

Wow, you're probably right based on the fact that Montas isn't a Twin. That seems incredibly steep for a guy with one good MLB season and two years of team control remaining. I mean Berrios' return was good for MN but Arraez+ Martin is greater than Martin+SWR. 

[Azviking101]

I understand that trade prices seem to be insane right now, but they only did this to themselves. At this point it's a near guarantee that Correa will be shipped off at the trade deadline.

So, Falvey...what's more important? Maximizing your time with Correa or saving prospects? If the Twins suck and ship Correa out at midseason Twins fans will be irate and more importantly I think free agents are going to have an even worse viewpoint on the twins front office than they already had. It's no secret that free agents have avoided MN in prior years. While a lot of that is money related I don't believe that's the entire reason.

Save the prospects means having a terrible rotation. By the time the trade deadline approaches they're going to be so far out of the picture that there's no reason to even debate re-loading on pitching.

This is how we baseball.
 

[howeda7]

How are they not at least adding Cueto or Archer at this point? They won't cost much, they're worth a flyer. Even if Winder/Bundy/Ober/Ryan are all great and we don't need them, we're out what $5 million at most?