Twins 2022 Position Analysis: Third Base

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins changed course at the hot corner in a major way earlier this month when they traded away Josh Donaldson and the last two years of his contract, bringing back Gio Urshela from New York in the deal.

Urshela figures to step in as Minnesota's primary third baseman, for now, but he may need to fend off the advances of several players and prospects to stay there.

Projected Starter: Gio Urshela
Likely Backup: Luis Arraez
Depth: Tim Beckham, Daniel Robertson
Prospects: José Miranda, Austin Martin

THE GOOD

Although the inclusion of Gary Sánchez in the Josh Donaldson deal can hardly be viewed as anything more than a salary dump by New York, the late-blooming Gio Urshela is actually a fairly valuable player, with two remaining years of control and a recent track record of success.

The 2021 season doesn't qualify, as Urshela struggled to sub par offensive production (.309 wOBA), but in the two seasons prior he had slashed .310/.359/.523 while establishing himself as a high-caliber defender at third base. Urshela would've ranked fifth in fWAR among Twins position players in 2019 (3.1), and second behind Nelson Cruz in 2020 (1.6). 

Rediscovering his game would turn Urshela into an asset for Minnesota. Who wouldn't want an .880 OPS with defense that merits Gold Glove consideration? (Urshela was a finalist at third base in 2020, but lost out to Isiah Kiner-Falefa.) But even if the 30-year-old can't bounce back, the Twins have plenty of options lined up behind him. In fact, this was likely a big driver in their desire to move on from Donaldson.

First and foremost, there is Luis Arraez, who is probably lined up for enough action at the position that we can consider it a timeshare. He doesn't have much arm, but Arraez looked serviceable when playing at third last season (with one glaring and extremely painful exception) and some consider it his strongest defensive position. Obviously, the Twins are motivated to get his bat in the lineup as much as possible, and this is the most natural spot to do it.

The looming elephant in the room, then, is José Miranda. Fifty-two of his defensive starts in the minors last year came at third base (compared to 30 at second and 26 at first), during a breakthrough season that ended in Triple-A and left him looking ready to make an impact in the majors. Some projection systems suggest there's no reason to wait; Steamer for example has him pegged for a .280/.331/.468 line in the big leagues this year, at age 23.

Finally, you've got Austin Martin. Minnesota's #1 prospect might not be pressing quite as hard as Miranda, having finished last year in Double-A, but he's clearly getting close and he'll need to find a defensive landing spot. Martin hasn't yet played third base professionally, but he played there plenty in college and it may be his most natural fit in the infield.

There are layers of contingency in place at third that help mitigate the relative uncertainty atop the depth chart.

THE BAD

It's difficult to count on Urshela after his performance last year, but one wonders how long the Twins will be compelled to stick with him, given he's a veteran owed $6.6 million this season. You don't just pull the plug on someone like that haphazardly, even though the team might be inclined if he's slumping while Arraez, Miranda, or Martin warrant playing time. 

Of course, we haven't seen this front office too constrained my sentimentality, and Urshela could possibly offer some value in a utility role anyway, should they opt to move him off third. He made 28 starts at shortstop down the stretch last year and was passable there (leaving one to wonder if he'll be Carlos Correa's top backup instead of Jorge Polanco). He's got some experience at second and first.

Beyond Urshela on the depth chart, exciting upside must be balanced with reality. And the reality is that experience is in somewhat short supply. Arraez has made less than a third of his defensive starts in the majors at third. Miranda has played there plenty, but hasn't yet fielded an inning in the majors and was barely on the prospect radar before last year. Martin has yet to gain any professional experience at the hot corner.

Whereas Donaldson was a prototypical third baseman in many ways (when healthy) the Twins lack such a prototype at present. Urshela is a significant downgrade in terms of talent and track record. 

The Twins are worse now at third base than they were before the trade, at least in the short-term – even if the move necessarily clears the way for the future.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The Twins lost a hell of a player in Donaldson, albeit an aging and undependable one. They're well equipped to move on in his absence, but the short-term picture might be a little shaky. I'd expect a pseudo-platoon of Urshela and Arraez out of the gates, with Miranda primed to take over in the near future and Martin standing ready should anything go awry.

Catch Up on the Rest of Our 2022 Previews:

• Position Analysis: Catcher
• Position Analysis: First Base
• Position Analysis: Second Base

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[tony&rodney]

The Twins are better on defense with Urshela and better on offense with either Arraez or Miranda. I would go with Miranda.

[jimbo92107]

Gotta get Miranda's bat in that lineup. Twins are gonna need tons of runs. 

[HrbieFan]

Hope Urshela rebounds and turns into a good trade asset in July. Need to see if Miranda is long term solution at 3B 

[Dman]

Hoping Urshea rebounds otherwise that trade looks worse than it already is.  I have my doubts about him rebounding but will have to wait and see.  Arraez is a nice backup plan to have though and giving Miranda time to make sure he is who he is isn't a bad idea when trying to win games early in the year.  Third base looks like it is in OK shape even with Donaldson gone.

[mikelink45]

I see the mid-season trade potential, but there are teams that are really weak at 3B so we could flip him like we did Kiner-Falefa.  I would sure like to see what Miranda can do, but he is a prospect and not a guarantee.  It is another conundrum for the FO.

[RJA]

I think with Urshela, Arraez and the emergence of Miranda and Martin, the Twins are fine at 3rd base.  The comparison between Urshela and Donaldson is based on one year which happened to be Urshela's worst.  It is not reflective of reality.  He is a good third baseman defensively, and has shown well with the bat in prior years.  Absent trades, I think the Twins will start with Urshela at third, spotting him at short and second once in a while, and see what happens.  If he is solid but Miranda and Martin are raking, it is a great problem to have and as mikelink45 noted, they could move him at the deadline.  If he continues on his 2021 pace, Miranda or Martin will get the call.  

[Trov]

I see Urshela as the backup utility guy and Arraez getting most of the starts at third, unless he is terrible on defense there.  Miranda may get time there too.  Maybe Urshela has a bounce back year, but that is less likely as he is getting older.  

[jmlease1]

There's no real problem with depth for 3B: Urshela & Arraez can handle the position right now in MLB with no real questions, Miranda looks ready even if he doesn't have MLB experience yet, Martin is coming up through the minors so thinks look fine right now. The only real issue is we don't know what kind of offensive production we're going to get out of Urshela, so for now there's a real potential downgrade from Donaldson. The projection systems tend to have him falling about the midpoint or maybe a bit more between his 2019 season and 2021, and that seems pretty reasonable, which gets you solid starter numbers but nothing exceptional. Arraez's lack of power limits his upside, but he's in a similar boat. Between the two, it's fairly likely we'll get good production.

What I want to see if Miranda seizing the job with a vengeance. He'll have some struggles, I'm sure and is definitely more of a bat-first player at this point, but the upside is much higher. Will he match Donaldson's production from last year? Maybe not yet...but I think he could get close. Urshela feels better suited to more of a utility role (and I'd be happy to have him be a defensive replacement for Miranda at time too) and with arraez hitting lefty, you could protect Miranda against some of the toughest RHP as well. I think there's enough ABs in there for everyone?

It's also important to remember when thinking about replacing production that Donaldson played less than 100 games at 3B last season and his defense was starting to slip some as he becomes less mobile. 

but I think Miranda will be the 3B of the future for us and will be a fine player. Maybe Martin comes charging through and takes it from him, but I'm happy to worry about that when it happens. Depth looks good for this season with multiple players that should be able to handle the job. Maybe Cavaco starts to get it together and becomes the next guy?

[The Mad King]

Safe to say someone in this article is going to be gone if they ever come up with a deal for pitching.

[KBJ1]

Urshela is obviously a solid fielder and has shown he can hit and hit for power in the past. Should be the utility infielder for 3B &SS.

Miranda should be the everyday 3B. Granted there may be growing pains.

Please give this fascination over a one tool player like Arraiz to some other team for pitching. He has no speed, no power, no arm. 

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

Please give this fascination over a one tool player like Arraiz to some other team for pitching. He has no speed, no power, no arm. 

You left out what is shaping up as chronic knee problems that stand to get worse with age.

[KBJ1]

On 3/24/2022 at 3:04 PM, ashbury said:

You left out what is shaping up as chronic knee problems that stand to get worse with age.

True as well regarding Arraez. Trade him for a solid bullpen guys.

[GeorgiaBaller]

On 3/24/2022 at 10:22 AM, jmlease1 said:

What I want to see if Miranda seizing the job with a vengeance.

Absolutely.  Arraez is a utility man, but forced his way into the conversation with contact and base hits.  Lets see some more of these prospects kick someone out of a position because they are better!   Beat them out---can we say that anymore, or is it not acceptable now?  High level competition is good ---and should make major league competitors sharper.

 

Dump Sano