Third and fourth outfielder

[cheeseheadgophfan]

Arraez needs to be in the lineup everyday.  He's a .300 hitter and gives the lineup something they don't have.....someone who works counts.  If he's not playing 3b, or giving Polanco a day off, he needs to be the DH.   I don't need to see Sanchez DH'ing except on a very limited basis.  I don't know why Rocco announced that Arraez won't play in the outfield.  He seemed at least serviceable.  Any way to keep his bat in the lineup is a bonus to me.....

[Number3]

I can't believe this thread generated 61 posts, many of the verbose nature when the real answer is that Baldelli never plays the same lineup consistently to the point that it borders on the ridiculous. If the real question is who will start on opening day, the answer is who cares? It also seems to be assumed that Buxton will always be available, which we know he won't. The real question is who will be the 5th, 6th, and 7th outfielders? Maybe Royce Lewis can be the 8th outfielder since short stop is taken.

[stringer bell]

Regarding Kepler's spot in the lineup, he is the incumbent but other players will get chances to show they can supplant him. His 2 WAR season wasn't as bad as his traditional numbers--.211 BA, 19 HRs and 54 RBI. If the measuring stick is WAR, I don't think any candidates in the organization will project to be better.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

10 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

There are only 17 position players on the 40-man.  Of those, I’d start Lewis and Celestino at St. Paul. It’s also start Miranda at St. Paul for the first month, meaning both Rooker and Larnach would be position players 13 and 14.

As the OP question of third and fourth OF, I’d say Kiriloff, Larnach and Kepler all get starts at corner OF, as well as some for Rooker, with Arraez and Gordon as sometimes options.  CF back-up is Kepler or Gordon, but I hope Buck earns all of his incentives and plays every day.

 

Buxton played 61 games in ‘21. Kepler played only 22 games in CF with 101 opportunities that’s 22% of the reserve CF going to Kepler. I can’t imagine he’ll have a significantly larger share in ‘22.

I assume Gordon is first in line to spell Buxton and Celestino gets the call if Buxton goes on the IL.

[Brandon]

I assume 3b is going to be Ursula, Arreaz, and Miranda.

1B is going to be Killeroff then Sano

LF is going to be Rooker, Larnarch, Arreaz, Killeroff (not in that order)

Back up OF is going to be Gordon most likely.  He has speed.  and is solid defensively.  maybe not great but improving too.  He doesn't hit great but if he can just get on base enough and score runs then that is good enough for me.  Cave i thought was outrighted off the roster and resigned to a minor league contract.

DH is Sano, Sanchez, then resting regulars.

[DocBauer]

All of this could change due to a potential trade over the next couple of days/weeks, but based on the current options/roster:

IDEAL: Larnach proves he's actually ready for LF, while having the arm for RF as well. Buxton in CF. Kepler in RF. No matter how disappointing his 2021 season was, Kepler is an outstanding RF with power, decent speed, etc. He's never been what we hoped, glimpsed in 2019, but he's also not what we saw in 2021. Just, for goodness sake, quit the love affair with him batting leadoff all the time. 

This also allows Kirilloff to cover OF but stake his claim to 1B. Sano now backs up 1B and is the primary DH. Unless he miraculously finds his former self from 3yrs ago, I DON'T buy Sanchez for a minute as a primary DH. That's lip service to a veteran and the public. 

Rooker proves through workouts, batting practice, A and B games that he's figuring it out and looking solid with approach and contact, and he earns the "4th" OF spot to spell both corners, DH and PH here and there. This allows Celestino to begin the season in St Paul and continue his development and not be rushed. Kepler and Gordon spell Buxton in CF when he gets a day off. (This is Gordon hitting and playing AT LEAST as well as last year, but his history shows he adapts and does better 2nd time around. Actually, same for Rooker).

PRACTICAL: Kirilloff is the starting LF, and he's OK there. His time at 1B will be limited for now, but it's his eventual position probably. Naturally, Buck in CF and Kepler in RF.

4th OF? With Kepler and probably/possibly Gordon on the roster, CF is covered for days off. The 4th OF doesn't have to be able to play CF. What's needed is a RH bat, ideally. That brings us back to Rooker getting a shot and proving himself. Can we afford to derail Celestino's development by playing occasionally? There is a chance, with the expanded roster, and how things shake out for said final roster, the Twins could open up a roster spot for a non-roster OF, Garlick and Kerrigan being remote possibilities. Contreas and Fisher are also possibilities, but each are LH, working negatively against them at this time. But if they really don't feel the right vibe with Rooker, I wouldn't be surprised at a late FA signing or waiver wire claim. Again, they have to make a 40 man move. But I don't like pressing Celestino in to that role unless he's going to play often.

As much as many of us may not want to hear it, being on the 40 man, and still having potential, IMO, Rooker is the best initial choice as the 4th OF IF he steps forward, or at the very least, looks like he's about ready to. And we're talking initial roster, not the whole season.

Someone mentioned Gardner on the cheap. Not sure that happens. But it's an interesting idea. Again, it means he, or someone else brought on board, another 40 man move needs to happen. And that could happen not only via trade, but someone just being removed as they just aren't as "necessary" as somone else. Despite not being an obvious need for 2022, I always felt a 4th, veteran, RH bat was a quiet "need" for this team that hasn't been addressed. 

So there you have it. Ideal and practical. Either way you look at it, Rooker is kind of a precipice. The opportunity is there to do what he's always done, get acclimated and improve. He fits in either scenario if he does that. Otherwise, he's traded, or sent to AAA to tantalize someone else or SUDDENLY get his stuff together and MAYBE get another call up opportunity. 

SIDE NOTES:

1] Gordon has a lot to prove still. His first couple of ST games have provided a mixed result. But it's still ST. He was surprisingly OK in CF last year, learning the position on the fly. He didn't exactly embarrass himself in his ML debut, despite being put in awkward situations as a rookie. Lest we forget losing 2020 and his bad covid illness. He has a history of improving year to year, though that is, of course, different than the ML level. And it's very obvious he will never achieve anything to warrant his draft selection. But his versatility and speed does provide something. His adaptation to playing CF totally surprised me. So I wouldn't give up on him just yet, generally, hitting better and raising his OPS to some acceptable degree as a quality utility player. There is still another level he might reach as a very quality super utility player.

Not saying there aren't better options coming up to supplant him, but I could see value for him in 2022 and beyond.

 

[MinnInPa]

21 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

I concur. Not only could Martin hold down LF when Kirilloff inevitably moves to 1B, but his OBP and speed make him a prototypical leadoff hitter, something the Twins don't really have right now. He gets on base wherever he's played. He could probably play in the majors now and not embarrass himself.

Lets hope Martin rakes the next couple weeks and he moves up the ladder ahead of Rooker / Larnach

 

[stringer bell]

17 hours ago, Sconnie said:

Buxton played 61 games in ‘21. Kepler played only 22 games in CF with 101 opportunities that’s 22% of the reserve CF going to Kepler. I can’t imagine he’ll have a significantly larger share in ‘22.

I assume Gordon is first in line to spell Buxton and Celestino gets the call if Buxton goes on the IL.

Kepler missed 40 games as well, including several when Buxton was also injured. When he returned, the club pretty much kept him in right field. Does that rule him out from being Buck's primary backup this year? I don't know for sure, but I don't think so. 

There is more need on this club for a right handed outfielder who can cover center and also be a candidate for platoon duty in left field than there is for a no-defense right handed power hitter with reverse platoon statistics and a converted infielder who lacks power. 

[stringer bell]

I do have an honest question here. Can someone explain to me how Trevor Larnach ended up with a WAR of +0.6 while compiling an OPS+ of 88 while compiling a negative rating on defense while Rooker's WAR was -0.6 with an OPS+ of 89. He also had poor fielding marks. Was Rooker's defense in 45 games so bad that he lost 1.2 WAR? (BBRef WAR).

[LA VIkes Fan]

12 hours ago, DocBauer said:

All of this could change due to a potential trade over the next couple of days/weeks, but based on the current options/roster:

IDEAL: Larnach proves he's actually ready for LF, while having the arm for RF as well. Buxton in CF. Kepler in RF. No matter how disappointing his 2021 season was, Kepler is an outstanding RF with power, decent speed, etc. He's never been what we hoped, glimpsed in 2019, but he's also not what we saw in 2021. Just, for goodness sake, quit the love affair with him batting leadoff all the time. 

This also allows Kirilloff to cover OF but stake his claim to 1B. Sano now backs up 1B and is the primary DH. Unless he miraculously finds his former self from 3yrs ago, I DON'T buy Sanchez for a minute as a primary DH. That's lip service to a veteran and the public. 

Rooker proves through workouts, batting practice, A and B games that he's figuring it out and looking solid with approach and contact, and he earns the "4th" OF spot to spell both corners, DH and PH here and there. This allows Celestino to begin the season in St Paul and continue his development and not be rushed. Kepler and Gordon spell Buxton in CF when he gets a day off. (This is Gordon hitting and playing AT LEAST as well as last year, but his history shows he adapts and does better 2nd time around. Actually, same for Rooker).

PRACTICAL: Kirilloff is the starting LF, and he's OK there. His time at 1B will be limited for now, but it's his eventual position probably. Naturally, Buck in CF and Kepler in RF.

4th OF? With Kepler and probably/possibly Gordon on the roster, CF is covered for days off. The 4th OF doesn't have to be able to play CF. What's needed is a RH bat, ideally. That brings us back to Rooker getting a shot and proving himself. Can we afford to derail Celestino's development by playing occasionally? There is a chance, with the expanded roster, and how things shake out for said final roster, the Twins could open up a roster spot for a non-roster OF, Garlick and Kerrigan being remote possibilities. Contreas and Fisher are also possibilities, but each are LH, working negatively against them at this time. But if they really don't feel the right vibe with Rooker, I wouldn't be surprised at a late FA signing or waiver wire claim. Again, they have to make a 40 man move. But I don't like pressing Celestino in to that role unless he's going to play often.

As much as many of us may not want to hear it, being on the 40 man, and still having potential, IMO, Rooker is the best initial choice as the 4th OF IF he steps forward, or at the very least, looks like he's about ready to. And we're talking initial roster, not the whole season.

Someone mentioned Gardner on the cheap. Not sure that happens. But it's an interesting idea. Again, it means he, or someone else brought on board, another 40 man move needs to happen. And that could happen not only via trade, but someone just being removed as they just aren't as "necessary" as somone else. Despite not being an obvious need for 2022, I always felt a 4th, veteran, RH bat was a quiet "need" for this team that hasn't been addressed. 

So there you have it. Ideal and practical. Either way you look at it, Rooker is kind of a precipice. The opportunity is there to do what he's always done, get acclimated and improve. He fits in either scenario if he does that. Otherwise, he's traded, or sent to AAA to tantalize someone else or SUDDENLY get his stuff together and MAYBE get another call up opportunity. 

SIDE NOTES:

1] Gordon has a lot to prove still. His first couple of ST games have provided a mixed result. But it's still ST. He was surprisingly OK in CF last year, learning the position on the fly. He didn't exactly embarrass himself in his ML debut, despite being put in awkward situations as a rookie. Lest we forget losing 2020 and his bad covid illness. He has a history of improving year to year, though that is, of course, different than the ML level. And it's very obvious he will never achieve anything to warrant his draft selection. But his versatility and speed does provide something. His adaptation to playing CF totally surprised me. So I wouldn't give up on him just yet, generally, hitting better and raising his OPS to some acceptable degree as a quality utility player. There is still another level he might reach as a very quality super utility player.

Not saying there aren't better options coming up to supplant him, but I could see value for him in 2022 and beyond.

 

I think you're right in the sense that this is it for Rooker. He either makes it this year or is included as a trade throw-in or waived. How has he looked so far in ST?

[Doctor Gast]

6 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I do have an honest question here. Can someone explain to me how Trevor Larnach ended up with a WAR of +0.6 while compiling an OPS+ of 88 while compiling a negative rating on defense while Rooker's WAR was -0.6 with an OPS+ of 89. He also had poor fielding marks. Was Rooker's defense in 45 games so bad that he lost 1.2 WAR? (BBRef WAR).

IMO his defense was that much worse, So that WAR doesn't surprise me

[lecroy24fan]

Good discussions here. Only thing I want to add is that Arraez will not play in the OF this year, per Rocco.

[dxpavelka]

On 3/24/2022 at 11:21 AM, joefish said:

Larnach does that too.

Or same thing when diving at a curve ball.

 

[farmerguychris]

I think we need someone who can fill in at center adequately.  While it can be argued that Celistino needs another year at AAA to develop, I'd prefer he be our 4th OF because between the young talent waiting for the corner spots, plus Buxton's injury history and new extension, I don't see any reason to keep Celistino's service time down or that he has a long term spot on our team. Even if he only plays a few times each week, he's better as a fielder than our other options and I see no reason to keep someone like Cave instead.

[DJL44]

59 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

I think we need someone who can fill in at center adequately. 

That's Max Kepler

[Otto von Ballpark]

On 3/25/2022 at 10:23 AM, stringer bell said:

I do have an honest question here. Can someone explain to me how Trevor Larnach ended up with a WAR of +0.6 while compiling an OPS+ of 88 while compiling a negative rating on defense while Rooker's WAR was -0.6 with an OPS+ of 89. He also had poor fielding marks. Was Rooker's defense in 45 games so bad that he lost 1.2 WAR? (BBRef WAR).

You can see a breakdown in the Player Value -- Batters table.

Both Larnach and Rooker had a -3 run Rpos (positional adjustment), but in terms of actual fielding performance relative to average at their positions, Larnach was +2 runs Rfield, as compared to Rooker at -9.

Roughly 10 runs equals 1 WAR, so that difference of 11 runs is about 1.1 WAR.

FWIW, B-Ref WAR uses DRS as its fielding metric, but they also provide TZ -- the difference there was only 7 runs. Fangraphs (using UZR) only pegged their fielding difference at 4.3 runs.

[Mike Sixel]

On 3/23/2022 at 7:45 PM, Shaitan said:

Let's say they have Kirilloff in LF, Sano at 1B, and Sanchez at C.

 

They pinch hit for Jeffers late in the game. Do they give up the DH on the regular or do they find a seatfiller 3rd catcher to waste roster space, more or less? I assume so with a 28-roster, but when it drops to 25-26 (or whatever they are now) I hope not.

 

I generally expect a rotation of Kirilloff and Arraez in LF in rotation with Sano/Kirilloff and 1B and Sanchez/Arraez/Sano at DH.

 

So maybe Sanchez only DHs half time while they rotate those positions.

giving up the DH late in a game shouldn't really be an issue. PH for the pitcher once.....It just isn't as big a strategy issue as people think.

[Squirrel]

Well … it’s NOT Cave …

 

 

[jimbo92107]

Twins appear to be starting the season with Urshela at 3B, Kirilloff LF, and Sano 1B. That means there's not much room for Rooker or Larnach, especially since Gordon is much faster than either guy and is now showing a better hit tool. 

First month of the season will be consequential. If Urshela isn't raking, then you might as well bring up Miranda. If Killer is hitting, then package Urshela, Larnach and Rooker in trades. Seriously, whom would you rather have waiting for IF and OF spots, the guys now, or Celestino, Martin and Lewis? 

These decisions will be easier if the young guys are tearing it up in AA and AAA, of course. Frankly, the Saints should be terrifying their league with both hitting and pitching. 

[Greglw3]

On 3/24/2022 at 7:24 AM, Riverbrian said:

I have a friend who races on the dirt track in town every Friday night. I like asking him how he did every Monday and then making fun of him when he says 4th.

I like joking about it but, I understand the reality on the dirt track. If you draw the 6th position, it is going to be near impossible to finish 1st. All the cars are fast, built the same, the drivers are experienced and the space and time to maneuver is tight. 

It matters where you start on the dirt track, it matters on Baseball depth charts where you start and where you start matters in regular life as we head down our paths toward becoming a CEO or a meth addiction.

Max Kepler drew the pole position and hit .211 over 490 AB's. 

I love ya String but the Twins better not be set in RF with Kepler. 

I'll just say that I couldn’t agree more strongly. If they’re not going to trade him or make him the 4th OF, then at least platoon him. I have seen some encouraging signs in Kepler going to center or left a bit.

That’s the key. I think the minor league coach who convinced him to switch from a 'use the whole field' hitter to a pull-oriented power hitter did him and the Twins no favors. He seems very slow to correct his obvious deficiencies in being pull happy. I hope he finally starts using the whole field.

He could be a fine hitter if he would. But the track record over the last two years shows a sad steep decline. The FO should have gone out and found somebody to replace him. It’s a big gamble continuing with him as a 500 AB player. We can only hope he makes adjustments and the Twins find a RH hitter who is not named Rooker or Garlick to platoon with him. Someone like Miranda? Martin? Lewis? I would have pursued JD Davis or Mark Canha. 

I also think that Gordon may have a role in the OF and can add electrifying base stealing ability in tandem with Buck.

[TwinsDr2021]

On 3/29/2022 at 12:07 PM, Mike Sixel said:

giving up the DH late in a game shouldn't really be an issue. PH for the pitcher once.....It just isn't as big a strategy issue as people think.

I would tend to agree, but it doesn't seem like a good idea for the long haul.  Imagine top of the 8th two on and two outs with a left handed batter due up and the pitcher spot batting 2nd in the bottom up by 1. Normally you bring in Rogers for 1 1/3 save, but now what was Rocco do? Might not happen, but does Rocco really need more questions brought up what how he deals with relief pitchers?

[CBtwinsfan]

Are we going to see an outfield of Buxton, Kepler and Kirilloff, then in late game defensively bring in Gordon to play left field?  I don't know how much of a look Gordan has had in left field but he looked pretty decent in center last year.

[Squirrel]

13 minutes ago, CBtwinsfan said:

Are we going to see an outfield of Buxton, Kepler and Kirilloff, then in late game defensively bring in Gordon to play left field?  I don't know how much of a look Gordan has had in left field but he looked pretty decent in center last year.

Gordon has had a couple of games recently in ST in left. I think he’s the backup outfielder

[stringer bell]

8 minutes ago, CBtwinsfan said:

Are we going to see an outfield of Buxton, Kepler and Kirilloff, then in late game defensively bring in Gordon to play left field?  I don't know how much of a look Gordan has had in left field but he looked pretty decent in center last year.

Gordon has logged quite a few innings in left this spring. I don’t know how he’s looked as a left fielder, but he hasn’t stood out “like a sore thumb”. I could see him coming in to run for Sanó and then taking over left, with Kirilloff at first, improving base running and defense at first and probably in left, in the late innings. 

[Squirrel]

Just now, stringer bell said:

Gordon has logged quite a few innings in left this spring. I don’t know how he’s looked as a left fielder, but he hasn’t stood out “like a sore thumb”. I could see him coming in to run for Sanó and then taking over left, with Kirilloff at first, improving base running and defense at first and probably in left, in the late innings. 

It’s been said/suggested many times around TD that Gordon would/could spell Buxton in center, too. He’s not terrible for an occasional CF backup. It also allows Celestino to get everyday work in AAA which I think he needs

[USAFChief]

12 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

... Imagine top of the 8th two on and two outs with a left handed batter due up and the pitcher spot batting 2nd in the bottom up by 1. Normally you bring in Rogers for 1 1/3 save, but now what was Rocco do? 

This is AFTER I've imagined--in the same game--the catcher getting injured and the other catcher in at DH.

 

Seems to me like too much imagining to worry about.

[ashbury]

28 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

This is AFTER I've imagined--in the same game--the catcher getting injured and the other catcher in at DH.

 

Seems to me like too much imagining to worry about.

I suppose a scenario could be drawn up that would worry me, but not that one.  We have the lead, at home, in the 8th?  Bring in your best lefty.