Third and fourth outfielder

[stringer bell]

With Buxton in center and Kepler in right, the Twins are set at two of the three outfield positions, Behind them, however, there is a notable gap, both offensively and defensively. Among the guys that manned the outfield last year are Nick Gordon, Kyle Garlick, Brent Rooker, Alex Kirilloff, Jake Cave and Trevor Larnach. 

Gordon is an infielder who was pressed into emergency service in the outfield. His defensive marks are so-so and offensively he was not great in about 200 plate appearances. Garlick logged about 100 plate appearances and did well against left handed pitching, his defense was satisfactory but uninspiring, and he even played center field a couple of games before going down with injury. Rooker got over 200 PAs and hit nine homers, but was brutal in the outfield and disappointing at the plate, although he did rake in AAA. Kirilloff was hampered by injury but showed enough to certainly be part of the Twins' plans for 2022, although his best defensive position is definitely first base. Larnach started well, got beat up and slumped at the plate. and finally was sent back to St. Paul. Cave is the most experienced of the candidates, but has struggled mightily the last two seasons after being a valuable fill-in and fourth outfielder in 2018-19. Cave also grades well in left field, but is stretched a bit in center.All but Garlick and Cave are high draft choices by the Twins. Gordon is out of options and Garlick and Cave are not on the 40-man roster.

I really don't dislike Nick Gordon or Brent Rooker but I see no role for either of them on a 2022 Twins team that now looks like they want to wrest away the Central title from the White Sox or at least make the expanded playoffs. Among the right handed hitters, Garlick is a better fit for a contending team because he has favorable splits against left handed pitching and is acceptable as a corner outfielder. I'm pulling for Larnach to seize left field. He has good power and a hitting profile that suggests that he could develop into a solid hitter despite last year's slide. As a seldom-used fourth or fifth outfielder, Cave would be okay in that he has lots of center field experience and is a defensive asset in left and he runs better than average. Gordon has very good wheels, but hasn't hit much and additionally with all of the second basemen in the Twins' system, it looks like his chance to be an every day player is non-existent, especially if he's #4 on the depth chart at shortstop. My opinion is that Kirilloff should play first base a majority of the time. He should hit enough to get time in left, but moving him there hurts the team defense at both first and left field.

What would be ideal is to have a player with good defense and good speed who hits right handed who can fill left field and cover center in Buxton's absence. The only possibility of that in the organization who could help the club this year is Austin Martin, who does seem a ways away yet and who has played as much shortstop as center field. I am looking for others' opinions on this and checking to see if I'm missing something. What is the opinion of the Twins Daily faithful? Let's hear from you. 

[Mike Sixel]

Larnach is the starting LF day one, I'd assume. Backup? I don't know. I agree there isn't a lot of room for Rooker on this roster with Sanchez and Sano and his lack of defensive prowess. 

[Danchat]

I don't see a clear 4th OF candidate who can fill in at all 3 spots... Celestino certainly can, but he should be playing every day at AAA. I don't want to see Cave on the roster again, so perhaps Gordon? We'll need to see more from his bat if he wants to keep that role.

I'm concerned that we're once again headed into the season with no plan for what happens if Buxton gets hurt... I guess it's probably Kepler to CF and whoever in RF.

[stringer bell]

3 minutes ago, Danchat said:

I don't see a clear 4th OF candidate who can fill in at all 3 spots... Celestino certainly can, but he should be playing every day at AAA. I don't want to see Cave on the roster again, so perhaps Gordon? We'll need to see more from his bat if he wants to keep that role.

I'm concerned that we're once again headed into the season with no plan for what happens if Buxton gets hurt... I guess it's probably Kepler to CF and whoever in RF.

Kepler is certainly acceptable to give Buxton a day off and Kirilloff has played a lot of right field in the minors, not much left at all IIRC. A right handed hitting three position outfielder whose calling cards are speed and defense would be ideal for the fourth (maybe fifth) spot. There probably are guys like that available--always seem to be. Signing someone like that to a minor league deal might make sense. I also see Martin as making his debut this year and primarily as an outfielder.

[LA VIkes Fan]

14 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Larnach is the starting LF day one, I'd assume. Backup? I don't know. I agree there isn't a lot of room for Rooker on this roster with Sanchez and Sano and his lack of defensive prowess. 

I don't agree. I think the design is clear if this is the roster. Kirilloff is the Opening Day LF and plays there most of the time with Sano at 1B and the DH spot a rotation between Arraez, Urshela, Sanchez, and guys getting a partial rest day. There is no room at the Inn to play Arraez and Urshela regularly, and really play Sanchez much at all, unless Sano is the primary 1B.  

The 4th OF is a tough call. Gordon could be the 4th OF/ 2nd IF utility if the team thinks he can continue to improve in the OF. He might be valuable because of positional flexibility with a 4 man bench, one of whom is the 2nd C, one is Arraez or Urshela, and one is Sanchez. Classic 3 catchers or an additional OF debate. Might be better to have a "true" 4th OF who can play CF and hit RH but we don't have that guy. I think the bottom line is that Kirilloff is the LF and Larnach and Rooker start the season in AAA or are part of a trade package for pitching. Gordon and Garlick fight it out for 4th OF unless we can pick up someone else.     

[jmlease1]

I'm fine with Kirilloff starting in one of the corner spots, even if he's a better 1B than an OF. Sano is almost certainly going to be the starter at 1B, so let's get Kirilloff's bat in the lineup. He'll be fine in LF (although I wonder if we'd be better off moving kepler to LF and letting Kirilloff run RF?).

I'd be happy if Larnach figured out how to manage against breaking balls without making himself helpless against a fastball when he finally sees one again, but I'm not expecting him to grab LF. He looks like the first injury call up in the OF? but I haven't given up on his bat.

for the 4th OF, the guy I'd love to see seize it is celestino. He was dreadful when they brought him up last season, but they called him up in desperation and everyone knew he wasn't ready. When he got sent back down to AAA (which was where he would have belonged at that point) he responded by playing very well. He's solid in CF and should be able to play either corner well. If he hits decently, he could be the perfect 4th OF.

It would be nice to see Rooker step up and demand a spot, but...I just don't know that he's going to make enough contact to let his power play in the big leagues.

[stringer bell]

4 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I don't agree. I think the design is clear if this is the roster. Kirilloff is the Opening Day LF and plays there most of the time with Sano at 1B and the DH spot a rotation between Arraez, Urshela, Sanchez, and guys getting a partial rest day. There is no room at the Inn to play Arraez and Urshela regularly, and really play Sanchez much at all, unless Sano is the primary 1B.  

The 4th OF is a tough call. Gordon could be the 4th OF/ 2nd IF utility if the team thinks he can continue to improve in the OF. He might be valuable because of positional flexibility with a 4 man bench, one of whom is the 2nd C, one is Arraez or Urshela, and one is Sanchez. Classic 3 catchers or an additional OF debate. Might be better to have a "true" 4th OF who can play CF and hit RH but we don't have that guy. I think the bottom line is that Kirilloff is the LF and Larnach and Rooker start the season in AAA or are part of a trade package for pitching. Gordon and Garlick fight it out for 4th OF unless we can pick up someone else.     

Funny, but who plays in the outfield depends a lot on Gary Sanchez. Some on this site are assuming that he takes over regular catching duties (he was an All-Star and a Silver Slugger and he will make around $9M). If that is the case, then Sano can man the DH role that he is suited for and Kirilloff is freed up to play his best position--1st base. 

Others, myself included, have seen Sanchez' poor defense, decline at the plate, and think he doesn't deserve playing time either at the plate or behind it, making him an expensive second catcher. Again that frees up Sano to DH and Kirilloff to stay at first. Regardless, Sanchez will probably start at catcher at least once per series. In those cases, I would like to see AK at first and Miggy at DH. 

Urshela's role should be interesting as well. Certainly, he should play third against left handed pitching (Arraez has notable platoon splits) and I think he's the backup shortstop. If he hits like he did in 2018-19, he's a star. If he hits like 2020-21, he is a platoon player.

[nicksaviking]

I'm fine with Larnach and Kirilloff battling it out in spring training. Those two should naturally be pushing each other anyway. 

Just looked at splits. Obviously it's a very, very small sample size, but it looks like Larnach struggles against lefties, while both Kirilloff, Celestino and Rooker had reverse splits. Probably too early to read anything into that, but with the DH spot now free, and Kirilloff likely getting time at 1B, I like the idea of mixing and matching as desired.

Looks like the roster is going to be 28 man to start the year, so the early season will be a bit like getting the lost spring training back. I hope they plant the young guys on the roster to get reps instead of the retread AAAA players.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm assuming Kirilloff is the starting LF and have assumed that since the end of last season. I'd only reconsider if Larnach mashes while Kirilloff struggles. The gap would have to be large for me not to hand Alex the job on Opening Day.

As for fourth outfielder, don't get me started. I would have non-tendered Cave months ago and then signed a RH bat that could play a legit CF. I don't like what the Twins have done here, not at all.

Not only is Cave a bad CF option, he also can't hit, and he also bats left-handed. There's literally nothing to like about him on this roster.

[stringer bell]

9 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm assuming Kirilloff is the starting LF and have assumed that since the end of last season. I'd only reconsider if Larnach mashes while Kirilloff struggles. The gap would have to be large for me not to hand Alex the job on Opening Day.

As for fourth outfielder, don't get me started. I would have non-tendered Cave months ago and then signed a RH bat that could play a legit CF. I don't like what the Twins have done here, not at all.

Not only is Cave a bad CF option, he also can't hit, and he also bats left-handed. There's literally nothing to like about him on this roster.

Well, I beg to differ, but not totally. I think as long as he's healthy Kirilloff is a mortal lock to start on Opening Day and be considered a regular, no matter what Larnach does. I just think that the best place for Sano is the DH role and by far the best defensive position for Kirilloff is first base. That doesn't leave a lot of room for Sanchez, but I think he's lost his mojo and doesn't deserve playing time other than being the alternate catcher.

I hope Larnach lives up to his pre-2021 pedigree. That would give the Twins good options throughout the lineup.

[stringer bell]

52 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

 

for the 4th OF, the guy I'd love to see seize it is celestino. He was dreadful when they brought him up last season, but they called him up in desperation and everyone knew he wasn't ready. When he got sent back down to AAA (which was where he would have belonged at that point) he responded by playing very well. He's solid in CF and should be able to play either corner well. If he hits decently, he could be the perfect 4th OF.

It would be nice to see Rooker step up and demand a spot, but...I just don't know that he's going to make enough contact to let his power play in the big leagues.

I kind of forgot about him. Yes, I think he might be able to fill the role nicely, but also be better served by playing every day in St. Paul, at least to start the season.

I'll mention my (probably overstated) bias now. Except for Ricky Henderson, I can't think of a good player who batted right and threw left. It seems counterintuitive to forfeit the more common platoon advantage when hitting and also get to first base in a fraction of a second slower time when hitting right handed. I guess I don't trust bats right throws left players somehow.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I don't agree. I think the design is clear if this is the roster. Kirilloff is the Opening Day LF and plays there most of the time with Sano at 1B and the DH spot a rotation between Arraez, Urshela, Sanchez, and guys getting a partial rest day. There is no room at the Inn to play Arraez and Urshela regularly, and really play Sanchez much at all, unless Sano is the primary 1B.  

The 4th OF is a tough call. Gordon could be the 4th OF/ 2nd IF utility if the team thinks he can continue to improve in the OF. He might be valuable because of positional flexibility with a 4 man bench, one of whom is the 2nd C, one is Arraez or Urshela, and one is Sanchez. Classic 3 catchers or an additional OF debate. Might be better to have a "true" 4th OF who can play CF and hit RH but we don't have that guy. I think the bottom line is that Kirilloff is the LF and Larnach and Rooker start the season in AAA or are part of a trade package for pitching. Gordon and Garlick fight it out for 4th OF unless we can pick up someone else.     

Good points. I doubt Rooker has much value, but Larnach should. Long term, I still think it is Martin.....

[KirbyHawk75]

All I know is I never want to see Cave in a Twins uniform again.  

[Mill1634]

I've been operating under the assumption that Larnach is traded -- I have nothing to back this up, but I feel like he's the headliner in some secondary arm we trade for that isn't named Montas. I would love to see the Twins add another OF, and Conforto is still out there, but I don't think that is going to happen. Tommy Pham is a name that I would like to see the Twins add that would be relatively cheap. He's going to get on base at a really good clip for a bench guy, is right handed, and isn't going to kill your defense in the corner OF. Of course, you still need a backup CF. I think they'll try to get by with Gordon in the short term, but if Buxton goes down to an injury, I think Cave is likely added back to the 40 man unless we are at the mid-point in the season and Austin Martin is absolutely crushing it in the minors. Jarrod Dyson on a MiLB deal would also be fantastic for the above situation, but I think he's probably holding out for some OF to get hurt in ST. 

[Platoon]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm assuming Kirilloff is the starting LF and have assumed that since the end of last season. I'd only reconsider if Larnach mashes while Kirilloff struggles. The gap would have to be large for me not to hand Alex the job on Opening Day.

As for fourth outfielder, don't get me started. I would have non-tendered Cave months ago and then signed a RH bat that could play a legit CF. I don't like what the Twins have done here, not at all.

Not only is Cave a bad CF option, he also can't hit, and he also bats left-handed. There's literally nothing to like about him on this roster.

If Jake is jettisoned, where will we get our weekly video of someone diving for a sinking liner and coming up 12’ short? 

[bean5302]

I'll take Rooker all day every day over Larnach. There's a lot of talk about how Larnach has power. Sure, line drive exit velocity, but he's slow as molasses in January and he hasn't converted the power into home run balls except in one season at Oregon State as a junior. Larnach didn't show power in his freshman or sophomore campaigns and it's never reappeared since. That leaves a single season of showing home run power in college several years ago and never in professional play. Not to mention Larnach was dumbfounded by MLB breaking and offspeed pitches and he wasn't able to deliver in AAA after his demotion, either.

I believe Rooker's outfield play can take major steps forward as he's a decent runner by statcast metrics and he takes good routes to balls. It seems like Rooker's not aggressive enough as balls launch off the bat and his acceleration could use some work which leads to a terrible jump. Rooker seemed to be unlucky at the plate more than overmatched in my analysis as well.

Sanchez is going to share time with Jeffers at catcher, at least to start the season. Jeffers was a near black hole at the plate last year in 293 plate appearances (not really a small sample) with a poor walk rate and a terrible strikeout rate. If Jeffers doesn't massively improve at the plate, Sanchez will be the every day catcher in short order.
 

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 minutes ago, Platoon said:

If Jake is jettisoned, where will we get our weekly video of someone diving for a sinking liner and coming up 12’ short? 

Robbie Grossman videos can still be found on YouTube.

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Well, I beg to differ, but not totally. I think as long as he's healthy Kirilloff is a mortal lock to start on Opening Day and be considered a regular, no matter what Larnach does. I just think that the best place for Sano is the DH role and by far the best defensive position for Kirilloff is first base. That doesn't leave a lot of room for Sanchez, but I think he's lost his mojo and doesn't deserve playing time other than being the alternate catcher.

I hope Larnach lives up to his pre-2021 pedigree. That would give the Twins good options throughout the lineup.

He'll get his ABs at C and if he hits then fine, but I wouldn't be be making sacrifices (forcing Sano at 1B and Kirilloff in LF) just to get Sanchez's bat some extra run, particularly to start the season. 

I'm high on Kirilloff too, I don't think whatever Larnach does should affect Kirilloff's presence in the lineup. 

[dex8425]

Since Cave and Gordon are both out of options, I'd rather have Gordon. First round pick, has tools and a much higher ceiling. Cave doesn't really have a spot on the team and he probably clears waivers anyway.

[wavedog]

Regarding 3rd and 4th Outfielders - and the 2nd OF -  I am not sure Kepler should be playing against LH starters given his splits - he can come in as a fielder for defensive purposes.  I would have liked to see them pick up a 4th OF that hits lefties and can field decently.   In the meantime I guess we could have Kirilloff play RF against lefties and put Rooker in Left - or place Rooker wherever he would do the less damage in the field LF or RF.      Other choices - Gordon, Larnach and Arraez are all lefties.  Celestino would come up if Buxton gets injured. Otherwise he, Martin and Larnach should be in AAA playing every day.    

[KirbyDome89]

34 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

 Rooker seemed to be unlucky at the plate more than overmatched in my analysis as well.

Last season he posted a 33% K rate, a 7% BB rate, and a .688 OPS in 213 PAs. Where's the bad luck?

For reference, Sano can be tough to watch, but Rooker struck out at nearly the same clip, walked almost half as often, and slugged nearly .100 points below Miguel. 

[stringer bell]

29 minutes ago, dex8425 said:

Since Cave and Gordon are both out of options, I'd rather have Gordon. First round pick, has tools and a much higher ceiling. Cave doesn't really have a spot on the team and he probably clears waivers anyway.

Cave was outrighted off the 40-man roster. He’d have to be put on the roster to play on the team, not exactly the same thing, but similar. He has good defensive numbers in left field and has had success in the majors as recently as 2019. As Brock said earlier, his handedness  and less than stellar CF stats work against him as well as his inability to hit for two years. 

[bean5302]

8 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Last season he posted a 33% K rate, a 7% BB rate, and a .688 OPS in 213 PAs. Where's the bad luck?

For reference, Sano can be tough to watch, but Rooker struck out at nearly the same clip, walked almost half as often, and slugged nearly .100 points below Miguel. 

 

[stringer bell]

Lots of TD love for Gordon, but to pretend he is an established outfielder or a proficient shortstop ignores how he was used until the Twins surrendered last year.  

[stringer bell]

12 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

 

I really don’t think Rooker is anything but an AAAA player. You’ve mentioned frequently that he is faster than most hulking sluggers. While that may be true, it doesn’t make him acceptable in the field or a good base runner. The numbers I’ve seen on his defense are brutal and given that along with decent speed, I must speculate that his routes to fly balls must be bad. Further, I see way too many holes in his swing to ever be successful plus he’s older (27?) so the likelihood of him developing more is really questionable.  The final nail in the coffin IMHO is his inability to be a lefty mashing specialist. 

[KirbyDome89]

33 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

 

So he struggles mightily with major league fastballs (a massive red flag,) swings outside the zone a little too often, strikes out a ton, and doesn't walk nearly enough. None of those attributes have anything to do with luck. I guess you could argue we might see a modest uptick in power production based on his batted ball data (even that might be a stretch considering how wide your percentiles are + a limited number of events) but I still think his all around game still falls well short of what you'd want from a corner OFer. 

[Doctor Gast]

5 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Funny, but who plays in the outfield depends a lot on Gary Sanchez. Some on this site are assuming that he takes over regular catching duties (he was an All-Star and a Silver Slugger and he will make around $9M). If that is the case, then Sano can man the DH role that he is suited for and Kirilloff is freed up to play his best position--1st base. 

Others, myself included, have seen Sanchez' poor defense, decline at the plate, and think he doesn't deserve playing time either at the plate or behind it, making him an expensive second catcher. Again that frees up Sano to DH and Kirilloff to stay at first. Regardless, Sanchez will probably start at catcher at least once per series. In those cases, I would like to see AK at first and Miggy at DH. 

Urshela's role should be interesting as well. Certainly, he should play third against left handed pitching (Arraez has notable platoon splits) and I think he's the backup shortstop. If he hits like he did in 2018-19, he's a star. If he hits like 2020-21, he is a platoon player.

What is funny is just because you were an All Star catcher doesn't mean your a good catcher, But let's say that Sano get's more time at DH (like was originally planned) and Kiriloff get's more time with his better position. That's only creates more problems in the OF.

The biggest problem is the chasm between Buxton and his sub. Kepler is our best option but still it isn't a good idea because he's uncomfortable there. Therefore taking a hit both defensively and offensively plus taking a hit at RF with who ever replaces him. Celestino should have been ready but being brought up too early last season, I'd like to start him at AAA, to build up his confidence and bring him up on spot starts. Martin under the best scenario is brought up late in the season. Gordon only experience he had is last season where  he learned on the fly (not a good idea). 

Best option is to find a glove 1st FA but now it's totally picked over. Worst option is bring back Cave, which because of lack of effort from the FO to find a true viable MLB ready CF and very few poor options, that this actually can happen.  So far the only really sure OF besides Buxton and Kepler is Kiriloff and that's by default (not saying he's bad, it's only we don't have anyone to count on) and who's our 4th  OF, So if he's swept to 1B (which is a good idea) we really have absolutely no one to depend on again in the OF and that's not counting injuries. Our total lack of MLB ready OF depth especially  at CF is absolutely scary.

[Doctor Gast]

After mulling over our lack of gloves in the OF. It seems like to me that it'd be a good idea to approach TB to see if they are interested in a salary dump Kiermaier or last year arbritation Margot for a trade.

[Shaitan]

Let's say they have Kirilloff in LF, Sano at 1B, and Sanchez at C.

 

They pinch hit for Jeffers late in the game. Do they give up the DH on the regular or do they find a seatfiller 3rd catcher to waste roster space, more or less? I assume so with a 28-roster, but when it drops to 25-26 (or whatever they are now) I hope not.

 

I generally expect a rotation of Kirilloff and Arraez in LF in rotation with Sano/Kirilloff and 1B and Sanchez/Arraez/Sano at DH.

 

So maybe Sanchez only DHs half time while they rotate those positions.

[Seth Stohs]

Kirilloff will be the primary starter in LF. My guess, and I just tried to put together all of the Twins rosters (MLB --> Extended based on who is at spring training), and I have Rooker and Celestino on the Opening Day roster. With the 28 man roster, I think that makes the most sense not to make the 40-man rosters for three weeks. Celestino can play all three spots and Rooker can mash (if he puts it in play). 

Larnach needs to get back on a good, extended role, and probably to do that in St. Paul. I think I'd like to see Celestino get every day playing time too for at least another half-season before he becomes more of a role player. Rooker is ready to be a part-timer, age-wise. And, people hate it, but Cave can be fine as a fourth outfielder used only as that.