Twins 2022 Position Analysis: First Base

[Nick Nelson]

First base is a position in transition for the Twins. It's clear they view Alex Kirilloff as their future there, but for now, Miguel Sanó still stands in the way with one year left under contract. 

How will things play out?

Projected Starter: Miguel Sanó
Likely Backup: Alex Kirilloff
Depth: Curtis Terry, José Miranda
Prospects: Aaron Sabato

THE GOOD

Miguel Sanó is capable of putting forth production that would make him a prototypical slugging first baseman. We saw it in 2017, and in 2019, and at times last year. After shaking off a rough first two months in 2021, Sanó slashed .246/.325/.493 with 21 homers in 97 games starting on June 1st. 

He continues to hit the ball as hard as anyone in baseball, ranking in the 97th percentile for average exit velocity, 98th in max EV, 99th in hard-hit percentage, and 97th in barrel percentage. That's a guy who intimidates not only opposing pitchers, but also everyone around the infield who might get a drive sent their way.

Sanó rebounded somewhat from a disappointing shortened 2020 campaign, although his overall numbers still left something to be desired – especially the .223 average and .312 on-base percentage. 

The 28-year-old hasn't since come close to replicating his 15.8% walk rate and .385 OBP as a rookie in 2015. Rediscovering a sense of selectiveness and discipline at the plate – sustainably, rather than in sporadic bursts – holds the key to resuscitating his dormant potential.

If you've given up on that ability ever showing through again, I don't blame you. It's been a rough go. But as his batted-ball metrics illustrate, he still has it within him to be a dominant power hitter if he can rein in the strike zone control. And Sanó is now more fundamentally motivated than ever to do so.

Pending a $14 million team option for 2023, he's due for free agency after this season, and as things currently stand Sanó will struggle to drive a market for his services. He could alter that outlook significantly with a season that harkens back to 2019, when he posted a .923 OPS with 34 home runs and 2.8 fWAR in just 105 games.   

This is a career-defining season for him, which helps explain why he openly committed to getting in better shape during the offseason. He looks pretty good physically in camp, but of course, the proof will be in the pudding. 

If Sanó can get back to the level of hitting we know he's capable of, he'll become a stellar complement to Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and (maybe) Gary Sánchez as standout righty power bats in the lineup. If Sanó falls back into one of this familiar ruts, the Twins may accelerate their plan to move on and entrench Kirilloff at first base, given the lack of future commitment. 

It's a nice fallback to have available, because Kirilloff clearly has enough bat for the position and his defense looked terrific there during brief glimpses last year.

THE BAD

The Twins were already in the process of writing Sanó out of their plans last summer. He'd essentially been demoted to part-time player status by June, with Kirilloff drawing regular starts at first as the team's clearly preferred option.

From June 18th through July 18th, Sanó started 12 of Minnesota’s 24 games, including just nine at first base. Then Kirilloff underwent wrist surgery, and Sanó regained the starting first base job by default. To his credit, he made the most of it, slashing .250/.346/.504 from the date of Kirilloff's surgery to the end of the season. That's nearly identical to the line he put forth during an All-Star 2017 campaign (.264/.352/.507). 

It's unclear Sanó can afford another start like he got off to in 2021, when he slashed .141/.295/.256 through mid-May while the team tanked into an inescapable early hole. As things stand, however, the Twins need Kirilloff in left field. Maybe Trevor Larnach re-establishes himself to negate that need, or the Twins add another veteran outfielder, but right now they're somewhat reliant on Sanó at first. 

THE BOTTOM LINE

The long-term outlook at this position is strong with Kirilloff waiting in the wings, but for now things are in flux. Will Sanó shake off his consistency struggles of the past two seasons and reaffirm his status as a cornerstone for the Twins? Doing so would not only give him a chance to hang on at first base this year, but also potentially extend his tenure with the club for another year (perhaps as a DH?).

If not, we may be reaching the end of the road for Sanó and Minnesota, and dawning a new era at first base. 

Catch Up on the Rest of Our 2022 Roster Previews:

• Position Analysis: Catcher

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[miracleb]

I think we have heard about Sano "getting in shape" for the past 5-6 years.   I hope that is true this year!

[Whitey333]

Very well written article.  I agree with all of your analysis on Sano.  He definitely has been an up and down player.  I can't see any way the Twins pick up his option after this year.  But then again I can't see why any pitchers ever throw him a strike with the fastball.  Breaking ball outside corner gets him nearly everytime.

[miller761]

Saw him in person last week. Reports said he has lost 25lbs. Sure looks like it and he looks good. None of this translates to on the field success. But you got to root for someone who is putting in the effort. I for one hope he gets rewarded for his effort and he has a good year. 

[mikelink45]

Who is number 3 - if Sano tanks again, if Kiriloff is injured again Whos on First? I know it is somewhat a plug and play position, but it's nice to have someone who really knows the position.  

[jmlease1]

Depth chart looks fine at 1B. We'll see whether Sabato is a real player and might eventually contend for time (I'm a little skeptical because he was so bad in low A as a college player entering the pros; instead of dominating younger competition, he was trash and got a promotion on scholarship. To be fair, he ran with it and lit things up in high A, but it's a smaller sample size of success.)

It'll be a little interesting to see what happens with Sano after this season, but the Twins are in good shape. If Sano has a great season, they can run it back with him for another go. If he's just ok (or worse) they can move on. And there are FA options on the market every year for guys who can play at 1B. I think Kirilloff is going to be a terrific player as long as that damn wrist holds up.

[Dman]

9 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Who is number 3 - if Sano tanks again, if Kiriloff is injured again Whos on First? I know it is somewhat a plug and play position, but it's nice to have someone who really knows the position.  

I think they could put Rooker there.  He can't be any worse than Sano.  They might be able to put Urshela or Miranda there  in a pinch.  Too your point there isn't much in the System for first base right now.  I assume that is why they brought in Curtis Terry at AAA for depth as well just in case things go south.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

I think they could put Rooker there.  He can't be any worse than Sano.  They might be able to put Urshela or Miranda there  in a pinch.  Too your point there isn't much in the System for first base right now.  I assume that is why they brought in Curtis Terry at AAA for depth as well just in case things go south.

I'd think they go Miranda first (assuming he's in AAA at the time of the need and is doing anything similar to what he did last year). I think Miranda is plan B for any infield injury/bad performance. But they've surprised me before so maybe they try to force the square Rooker peg into the round 1B hole. 

[Dman]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd think they go Miranda first (assuming he's in AAA at the time of the need and is doing anything similar to what he did last year). I think Miranda is plan B for any infield injury/bad performance. But they've surprised me before so maybe they try to force the square Rooker peg into the round 1B hole. 

They have been pretty opposed to putting Rooker at 1st base. Not sure why, but I guess his defense or glove are not good there? Still if they will let Sano play there I think Rooker would have to be an option.  I agree with you that if Miranda continues to hit at AAA he will be the first one called for an infield spot.  Still I think both would work for depth at 1st base.

[PDX Twin]

Quote

As things stand, however, the Twins need Kirilloff in left field.

Are you forgetting that Jake Cave is destined to play >80 games in LF?

<Ducks incoming tomatoes>

[Mike h]

I'm hoping that Oakland doesn't demand Kiriloff as part of a trade for one of their pitchers. (And I'm hoping a trade can still be worked out- the Yankees also want them). If so, yeah, we'd have to trade him, but ouch! We really need him for depth now, and as a starter for the long term.  He is absolutely the heir-apparent at first, with all-star potential. 

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, Dman said:

They have been pretty opposed to putting Rooker at 1st base. Not sure why, but I guess his defense or glove are not good there? Still if they will let Sano play there I think Rooker would have to be an option.  I agree with you that if Miranda continues to hit at AAA he will be the first one called for an infield spot.  Still I think both would work for depth at 1st base.

I'm not a Rooker believer so it's hard for me to support putting him anywhere. Sano isn't good defensively, but at least he can be a difference maker with the bat. I don't think Rooker can hit and he's one of the worst defenders I've ever seen so I really don't want him out there. If I'm putting a no glove guy at 1B they better be able to do what a hot Sano can do with the bat. But Rooker will get more chances until someone claims that LF spot or he proves he really can't be an everyday DH. Certainly no sense in cutting him now. See what the kid can do and if he can prove me wrong. Just wouldn't block Miranda with him.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Mike h said:

I'm hoping that Oakland doesn't demand Kiriloff as part of a trade for one of their pitchers. (And I'm hoping a trade can still be worked out- the Yankees also want them). If so, yeah, we'd have to trade him, but ouch! We really need him for depth now, and as a starter for the long term.  He is absolutely the heir-apparent at first, with all-star potential. 

If they trade Kirilloff for a pitcher with 1 (Manaea) or 2 (Montas) years of control left they should be fired on the spot.

[gman]

36 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

Are you forgetting that Jake Cave is destined to play >80 games in LF?

<Ducks incoming tomatoes>

I hope not

[stringer bell]

I know that he hasn't exactly like doing it, but Sano is the logical choice to be the DH on this club. I see that Miggy has lost 25 pounds, good for him and his long-term health, but that still isn't going to make him a good defender anywhere on the diamond. Some guys aren't good fielders and two of them are Rooker and Sano.

Kirilloff may be needed in left and right field, but easily his best position is first base. I hope he plays a majority of the games there and that the injury bug doesn't continue to follow him. 

There are knots in this roster that need to be unraveled. It is my hope that youth and superior defense will be served in unraveling  most of those knots.

[Heiny]

I agree with not trading Kirilloff.  For me, he is untouchable.   For Sano,  I would offer him a new contract extension right now.  Lower base salary with big incentives for lower strikeouts, OBP, OPS+, and even BA.  Base of about 5M with incentives maxing out at 20M.  If he can't prove his worth to be in the 10M range, then he should be cut.  This is a perfect player for an incentive laden contract.  He could make himself into a huge asset but he needs to prove it.  If he can prove himself worth keeping, I have no problem with him playing 1B and Kirilloff in LF.  Also I look forward to Larnach in RF after Kepler is traded.

[Unwinder]

34 minutes ago, Heiny said:

I agree with not trading Kirilloff.  For me, he is untouchable.   For Sano,  I would offer him a new contract extension right now.  Lower base salary with big incentives for lower strikeouts, OBP, OPS+, and even BA.  Base of about 5M with incentives maxing out at 20M.  If he can't prove his worth to be in the 10M range, then he should be cut.  This is a perfect player for an incentive laden contract.  He could make himself into a huge asset but he needs to prove it.  If he can prove himself worth keeping, I have no problem with him playing 1B and Kirilloff in LF.  Also I look forward to Larnach in RF after Kepler is traded.

MLB doesn't allow incentives based on performance metrics, that's why Buck's contract includes plate appearances and MVP voting as incentives rather than WAR or something like that.

[Minny505]

I don't know if the defensive trade-off to have Sano at 1B is worth it. 

Based on last years numbers, extrapolated out over 150 games played at 1B, has Kirilloff worth 1-4 WAR more than Sano on defense, depending on your metric of choice. I think the offensive downgrade going from Sanchez or Rooker in the lineup (at DH, with Sano at 1B) vs Gordon or Miranda in the lineup (in LF, with Kirilloff at 1B) could be worth it for the improved defense.

I'm all for giving Sano a chance to prove he can play 1B, but my leash is short if he does not improve. 

[chpettit19]

27 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

I don't know if the defensive trade-off to have Sano at 1B is worth it. 

Based on last years numbers, extrapolated out over 150 games played at 1B, has Kirilloff worth 1-4 WAR more than Sano on defense, depending on your metric of choice. I think the offensive downgrade going from Sanchez or Rooker in the lineup (at DH, with Sano at 1B) vs Gordon or Miranda in the lineup (in LF, with Kirilloff at 1B) could be worth it for the improved defense.

I'm all for giving Sano a chance to prove he can play 1B, but my leash is short if he does not improve. 

Miranda isn't an outfielder and I don't think anyone should expect to see him out there. He has played a total of 3 games and 25 innings in his entire minor league career. He played all 3 of those games in August of last year and they didn't put him back out there for the last 34 games of the season. Miranda in LF and Kirilloff at 1B shouldn't be viewed as an overall upgrade on defense at all. Miranda can't play LF.

So really your question is Gordon LF, Kirilloff 1B, Sano DH vs Kirilloff LF, Sano 1B, Sanchez or Rooker DH. I'd guess we see all those combinations, and many more, throughout the first month or 2 as Rocco cycles people and then it gets into whoever's playing best gets the ABs. But if Sano's bat is on it makes up for his defense.

[Dave The Dastardly]

If Sano starts at first and Kirilloff sits on the bench I'm going to need lots of tranquilizers. There's absolutely no rational argument for not playing Kirilloff, the team's future first baseman, who is way better defensively and can hit, in favor of one of the worst fielding first baseman in the league who occasionally hits a long homerun when he doesn't strike out. Sano's a DH on his best days and should be on his way to the National League.

[jmlease1]

8 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Who is number 3 - if Sano tanks again, if Kiriloff is injured again Whos on First? I know it is somewhat a plug and play position, but it's nice to have someone who really knows the position.  

well, you can't really expect to go into the season having a clear backup to the backup at every position? Sano is the starter, Kirilloff is the backup, and if both of them go down (or are totally ineffective) then they'll probably look at Miranda (who has gotten a little time there but not much, but could probably handle it), Sanchez (who hasn't played there, but would give a big target to throw to and might be able to handle it), or Urshela (who if he can backup SS almost certainly has enough glove to survive at 1B) for this season. Hell, Kepler could could shift down there in a pinch if they don't want to let Rooker on the dirt.

They've got some guys that could spend some time there. Next season they'll probably be looking for a backup/platoon option if Sano moves and Sabato isn't ready, but there's always a few of those decent hitters/ok defenders out there on the FA market that you're happy to pay $5M in FA, but not $8M in arbitration. So while we don't have a hot prospect buring up the minors right now...1B options are available.

[jmlease1]

10 minutes ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

If Sano starts at first and Kirilloff sits on the bench I'm going to need lots of tranquilizers. There's absolutely no rational argument for not playing Kirilloff, the team's future first baseman, who is way better defensively and can hit, in favor of one of the worst fielding first baseman in the league who occasionally hits a long homerun when he doesn't strike out. Sano's a DH on his best days and should be on his way to the National League.

well, don't get your prescription filled just yet: I'd guess Kirilloff is more likely to start in the OF and get time at 1B when Sano needs a break or is at DH. I wouldn't expect Kirilloff to spend much time on the bench at all when Sano is in the field.

[stringer bell]

I don't think Nick Gordon is a candidate to be a regular in left field. First of all, in 200+ plate appearances last year, his WAR was .2. Secondly, he wasn't rated that high defensively in left (SSS). To keep Kirilloff at first and Sano in the DH role, it would be ideal for Larnach to step up and perform like he did for the first month in a Twins uni. Having Sano at first and Kirilloff in left hurts the overall defense in both positions. 

[Minny505]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Miranda isn't an outfielder and I don't think anyone should expect to see him out there. He has played a total of 3 games and 25 innings in his entire minor league career. He played all 3 of those games in August of last year and they didn't put him back out there for the last 34 games of the season. Miranda in LF and Kirilloff at 1B shouldn't be viewed as an overall upgrade on defense at all. Miranda can't play LF.

So really your question is Gordon LF, Kirilloff 1B, Sano DH vs Kirilloff LF, Sano 1B, Sanchez or Rooker DH. I'd guess we see all those combinations, and many more, throughout the first month or 2 as Rocco cycles people and then it gets into whoever's playing best gets the ABs. But if Sano's bat is on it makes up for his defense.

You are right about Miranda and LF, but he wouldn't be the first rookie in MLB history, nor the only one in the 2022 MLB season, to be get pushed into a COF spot to get his bat into the lineup.

Arraez played roughly 18% of his MLB games in LF his rookie season despite (judging by Fangraphs history) not ever playing the OF in the minors. He wasn't great out there, but he was not as much of a negative as Sano looks to be at 1B.

It's a matter of what gives the team the best net run value. Hopefully Sano makes it a non-concern. If not, I'd like a quick leash on Sanchez being the primary DH, using some combination of Rooker, Miranda, and Kirilloff, manning LF and 1B.

Either Sano or Larnach (if he's even still in the org) can make this a moot point quickly.

[Minny505]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

I don't think Nick Gordon is a candidate to be a regular in left field. First of all, in 200+ plate appearances last year, his WAR was .2. Secondly, he wasn't rated that high defensively in left (SSS). To keep Kirilloff at first and Sano in the DH role, it would be ideal for Larnach to step up and perform like he did for the first month in a Twins uni. Having Sano at first and Kirilloff in left hurts the overall defense in both positions. 

Maybe a $2mil contract to Brent Gardner (you know, get the band back together?) in LF is the best answer to start the season. Then the Twins have a passable backup CF on the roster as well. 

 

[PseudoSABR]

 A bunch of guys are going to rotate through 1b/Dh/LF/C/3B. Potential for Sano/Kirilloff/Rooker, Sano/Sanchez/Arreaz, Kirilloff/Lanarch/Rooker/Miranda?, Sanchez/Jeffers/??, Urshela/Arreaz/Miranda to get many hundreds of at bats.  Maybe not stars at the options, but quality depth, a lots of layers of protection from injury.

[Greglw3]

14 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Who is number 3 - if Sano tanks again, if Kiriloff is injured again Whos on First? I know it is somewhat a plug and play position, but it's nice to have someone who really knows the position.  

Miranda! He might be better than Sano or Kirilloff. I expect he is really gonna hit.

[Thebigalguy]

Nice article. Sano can be an enigma. If he had the discipline of David Ortiz, he could be a monster on the diamond. But too often he seems like that guy driving the car behind you who's on his phone and rear ends you if you have to make a sudden stop.