Offseason Status Update: Here Comes Correa

[Nick Nelson]

With one stunning and historic move, the Minnesota Twins completely flipped the script on an underwhelming offseason, acquiring a superstar in his prime with an unprecedented free agency splash.

Let's get up to speed on where things stand and what's still ahead.

Spring training is fully underway but that doesn't mean Hot Stove SZN is over. The Twins made a huge addition over the weekend and seemingly have at least one more on tap. 

Pressure is building to check off the final boxes ahead of the season opener in just 18 days. What does the front office still need to accomplish and what are their options?

Donaldson Trade Clears the Books

I posted the last of these offseason status updates last Sunday night, figuring that at 9:22 PM I could safely assume the news cycle had settled, and the whirlwind weekend's moves were finished. But if there's been one lesson from the past week, it's that the news cycle never sleeps.

Literally minutes after clicking publish on an article reviewing the Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Sonny Gray trades, I learned of another blockbuster going down: the Twins dealt Josh Donaldson, along with Kiner-Falefa and Ben Rortvedt, to the Yankees in exchange for Gary Sánchez, Gio Urshela, and a bunch of salary relief.

With that, Minnesota's short-lived and unfulfilling engagement with Donaldson came to an end. It was a signing that ultimately illustrated the hazards of spending big on aging veteran talent. The Twins can consider themselves lucky to get out of the last two years, even though they had to actively worsen their roster to do it.

In the wake of this shakeup, many unknowns were in play. But among the few things we DID know: "The Twins now have all kinds of flexibility to make at least one HUGE move."

What would it be?

Twins Shock the World with Correa Signing

For five days, we all sat mired in uncertainty, wondering how the Twins planned to flex their newfound financial clout. As reports emerged of Trevor Story leaning toward other destinations, anxiety started to rise. Had the front office boxed itself into a corner?

Nah. They went out and signed the No. 1 free agent on the entire market, landing Carlos Correa in an absolute game-changing stunner. The three-year, $105.3 million contract makes Correa the highest-paid infielder in the game, and addresses the club's need at shortstop decisively. (For now.)

In all likelihood, it'll end up being a one-year deal, as Correa has the ability to opt out following either the 2022 or 2023 season. His aim is clearly to put together a good year, return to a less-crowded FA shortstop market next year, and score the $300+ million payday he desired. But that's okay. Getting an MVP-caliber player at age 27 on a one-year pact is a win, even if the framework of the deal creates a bit of team risk.  

On Sunday, Story signed with the Red Sox for six years and $140 million, prioritizing length of the deal over AAV. Meanwhile, the Yankees were basically left out in the cold. You hate to see it.

Still in Need of a Starter

Perhaps New York can still claim a victory in all of this late offseason action. They are reportedly among the teams in on Oakland's Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea. With so much steam around the two front-line starters and their availability, that situation feels like the last big domino yet to fall. 

The Twins have also been repeatedly connected to the Athletics in rumors, which only makes sense because they let every free agent starter come off the board while failing to adequately address their starting pitching needs. 

Even fallback mid-tier options like Michael Pineda and Tyler Anderson are now gone, and Minnesota has a glaring hole after (or ahead of?) Gray atop their rotation. Chi Chi Gonzalez might add some welcome veteran depth on a minors deal, but he's not moving the MLB needle in any way. The Twins almost HAVE to make a trade in order to put the finishing touches on a complete offseason. 

Are they willing to meet the extraordinary price that extracting Montas will surely require? Or will they opt instead for Manaea, who has only one year of team control left but will command a lesser return? Could they acquire ... both?

Given how the Twins have operated this offseason – conditioning us to expect the unexpected – something tells me the most likely outcome is none of the above. They'll find a way to surprise us by zagging while everyone anticipates the zig. Stay tuned.

Bullpen Gets a Veteran Boost

With all the attention being paid to starting pitchers and shortstops, the team's bullpen needs have been more or less on the backburner. Outside of grabbing Jharel Cotton before the lockout, and bringing back the likes of Juan Minaya and Danny Coulombe on minors deals, the Twins hadn't taken much action to offset their various question marks in relief.

On Saturday they did something about that, signing veteran right-hander Joe Smith to a one-year, $2.5 million deal. I would describe this as a low-wattage signing; the sidearmer, who turns 38 on Tuesday, hasn't put together a complete quality season since 2017. But he's been a pretty reliable righty specialist throughout his career and that was a need.

We'll see if the front office has anything else in store for the bullpen. Remaining options are limited. I wouldn't be the least surprised to see them lean primarily on internal arms in rounding out this unit. Griffin Jax looked really good in his first spring appearance and is one to watch. Lewis Thorpe is out of options.

Roster & Payroll Projection

Accounting for all of this wheeling and dealing, here's an updated look at the Twins' projected roster and spending commitments for this season. The payroll currently stands at about $122.5M, which is $7.5M short of their baseline target. 

With the news that Randy Dobnak is still bothered by his finger and unlikely for Opening Day, I've moved him out of the bullpen picture and added his (meager) guaranteed salary to the "Dead Money" section." 

I still see opportunities to add a fourth outfielder and one or two bullpen arms, though each of those needs could reasonably be filled with existing options. The remaining hole in the rotation, however, needs an external fix. 

For what it's worth, Montas is expected to earn around $5.5M via arbitration this year, and Manaea $10.2M.

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[Dman]

Yeah I am wondering if the Twins are going to need to Zag on Montas.  I can't imagine what the hold up is on Oaklands end.  Either they aren't getting the return they want for Montas or teams keep trying to outdo each other to grab him.  If the bidding is getting high might be time to go with Manea unless of course they are making it a package deal.

There must be other teams out there that the Twins could deal with if the Oakland deal falls through.  Like I said I don't know what the holdup is.  Billy has traded everyone else except the two pitchers that multiple teams are interested in.

Thorpe with 4 K's in his first two innings of work. Did anyone get a chance to see how he looked?  I know it is small samples size and he was facing the equivalent of AAA starters but still that looked like a nice outing.  While I don't have a ton of faith I am pulling for him.

Still shocked the Twins managed to get Correa so who knows what else they might be able to do.

 

[The Mad King]

I think you're right. They're gonna zig when we expect them to zag...

[curt1965]

As excited as I am to get Correa, I’m wondering what the holdup is getting him to camp? It looks like he’ll sign officially on Wednesday, and that gives him about 2 weeks to get ready.  Really?

[Nick Nelson]

9 minutes ago, curt1965 said:

As excited as I am to get Correa, I’m wondering what the holdup is getting him to camp? It looks like he’ll sign officially on Wednesday, and that gives him about 2 weeks to get ready.  Really?

He arrived today! 

 

[RJA]

I think the A's have set a huge price on these two and are not in a hurry to finalize a deal as there are a number of suitors already and someone else might jump in if a frontline pitcher develops arm issues.  I think they are waiting for one of the suitors to get desperate and pay their price.  If that doesn't happen in the next week or so, then I suspect negotiations will heat up and the A's will lower their asking price and they will be moved.  

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

He arrived today! 

 

Glad to see he wasn't displaying LLF.*

 

* (Lance Lynn Face)

[twinstalker]

Is 130MM their budget?  Not to pick nits, but I thought it was a bit higher, maybe 5 more.

[Unwinder]

1 hour ago, RJA said:

I think the A's have set a huge price on these two and are not in a hurry to finalize a deal as there are a number of suitors already and someone else might jump in if a frontline pitcher develops arm issues.  I think they are waiting for one of the suitors to get desperate and pay their price.  If that doesn't happen in the next week or so, then I suspect negotiations will heat up and the A's will lower their asking price and they will be moved.  

Honestly, I want to see the A's get a good haul. Whatever fans they have left deserve that.

[Game7-91]

1 hour ago, Unwinder said:

Honestly, I want to see the A's get a good haul. Whatever fans they have left deserve that.

So true. It's gonna hurt to nab Montas, or Castillo....not sleeping on Reds still making a move if return is good. It'll start with Lewis or Martin plus 2 more for either of those two. But if Twins are swinging for the fences gotta swing hard.

[h2oface]

Nobody ever really knows the budget limit. 

[Dantes929]

Just go with Josh Winder for the 5th spot.    Next guy Balozovic.    You hear things like he will be the first one called up or he is very near ready.   What makes the difference?     Sometimes the philosophy feels like "Hey!  This guy is going great.   Let's keep throwing him out there in the minors until he develops arm strain"

[AKTwins]

Bundy’s fastball was between 86-88 mph yesterday.  Maybe he’s a guy that needs to build up his arm strength in order to increase velocity.  If not, I don’t see him being a viable option as a starter.  I would write in Jax and Thorpe for the last 2 relief spots.  Not much left in the RP FA market.  I think the team will be creative wit the bullpen and starters, like the Rays.  Jax and Thorpe could pitch 2+ innings in relief or pitch after an opener.  However, I am concerned Thorpe was sitting at 87-88 with his fastball yesterday.  Hopefully, just building up arm strength.

With shortened spring training injuries are even more inevitable than usual.  I think Strotman, Winder, and Duran need to be ready to pitch in whatever role is necessary.  Probably throw Jordan, Henriquez and maybe Canterino into the mix as well.  My concern is that a trade for Montes or Manaea will deplete that upper level minors depth.  However, you need to make that trade anyways.

[Steve71]

Boy, if they are going to have to send a King's Ransom for Montas, I would prefer to package Kepler and stuff for Meyer of one of the other young Marlin stud pitching prospects.  That way at least you have a player for many years, instead of a 1 or 2 year control window.  Marlins still looking for center field help, if not Kepler then Centerino and others?

[Whitey333]

I realize Twins don't want to sell the farm, however with one of the best minor leagues in baseball it makes sense to trade from strength.  We need quality starting pitching!!  You can't get it without losing any assets unless you sign a FA.  And those are pretty much done.  It's going to cost some young " prospects " to acquire some.  Use them.  I am sure they have something coming.  I must admit I was very skeptical but it appears I may have been a little hasty in my judgement of the FO.  Let's wait and see how this all shakes out.  I'm sure they didn't sign Correa with the intent of being a last place format.  I love the prospect of being a contender.

[big dog]

12 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

He arrived today! 

 

Chills, baby! Chills.

[big dog]

This is even better than that time we signed...well...anyone ever.

[Otaknam]

A trade for Manea makes some sense even if it’s a one year deal. That wouldn’t require as many prospects in trade and give them a chance to find out which young starters have a chance. Thorpe has the potential to be excellent in the BP. I’m not that big on Jax as a starter so let’s see if the BP is a step forward for him. 

[mikelink45]

The trade market depends on too many things for me to predict it.  We have been in on Montas for a long time - Trade Rumors March 14 reported our interest.  But in a bidding war it is hard to project. I also see listed in comments the idea of trading Martin and Lewis for Montas.  With Correa for one year (probably) we cannot trade Lewis.  At least I do not think we can or should.  Looking ahead if Correa does as expected we still need Lewis for the position. 

I was interested in Story signing for six years for $35 more than Correa for three years (and everyone assumes he is only here one).  I am trying to figure out who really came out better. 

[RJA]

10 hours ago, Unwinder said:

Honestly, I want to see the A's get a good haul. Whatever fans they have left deserve that.

Yes, I agree their fans deserve that.  I think Beane is a marvelous judge of young talent--much like the Rays FO.  He has brought success to the the A's under severe budget limitations and with a lousy ballpark by developing young players.  You have to pull for the guy.  

[Unwinder]

1 minute ago, RJA said:

Yes, I agree their fans deserve that.  I think Beane is a marvelous judge of young talent--much like the Rays FO.  He has brought success to the the A's under severe budget limitations and with a lousy ballpark by developing young players.  You have to pull for the guy.  

I've seen Brad Pitt suffer enough, don't need a sequel.

[Brandon]

I can see the A’s holding out for Canterino or Balazovich and Miranda  and maybe another minor leaguer for Montas this would give the A’s a replacement for one of Chapman or Olsen and a Rotation replacement soon.

[mk]

Getting Correa is very exciting and is a HUGE upgrade at SS but I wouldn't be dusting off the spot for the division title just yet.

Looking just at the position players (because there's even more to think about regarding pitching), compared to the last-place 2021 Twins the opening day roster is downgraded at C, 3B, and DH. And the 1B and RF spots have a lot to prove if they want to be a playoff team again.

They've all done it before and I'm optimistic. Hoping Urshela's 2021 performance was the outlier and his true self is the 2019/2020 version. Also, if Jeffers, Kepler, and Sano can be much better than their 2021 numbers, Kirilloff takes the next step to becoming a star, and Buxton stays on the field, the division (and maybe more) is definitely attainable.

[Dman]

1 minute ago, Brandon said:

I can see the A’s holding out for Canterino or Balazovich and Miranda  and maybe another minor leaguer for Montas this would give the A’s a replacement for one of Chapman or Olsen and a Rotation replacement soon.

Yeah this a classic Beane strategy.  Just keep waiting and put pressure on teams to up the Ante.  I am not huge believer in huge overpays for two years.  I think the Pirates are the biggest example of how that can kill your team and FO and force an automatic rebuild.  

I think the Berrios deal is a good precedent for value in the case of Montas.  Two guys in the top 10 of the Jays system and then I would guess a little bit more than that considering Montas has two years left versus 1.5.  So maybe a young throw in.  Honestly I would be fine if the Twins did that deal in reverse.  Give the A's Marin, SWR, and throw in someone like Rosario, or Severino.  If they want more pitching throw in Strotman or the recently acquired Henriquez.

Players I would not want to give up would be Winder as he could be Montas in a few years with more years of control. Lewis who is the only player we have left who might be able to play short and MIranda who is likely our future 3rd baseman with a great hit tool.  

While I wouldn't love trading Balazovich, Canterino or Duran I could see parting with one of them if offer was right.

[Doctor Gast]

If Godoy really comes around and helps us to forget about losing both Garver and Rortvedt then I'd say we did pretty well.

I say the A's are our best bet to trade for a front line pitcher, because they could use a 2B/3B and they are most motivated, MIA really wants Reynolds (PIT) but they are unwilling to give up Meyer. MIA don't need a 2B so IMO MIA won't be motivated to trade with us now.

[Dawgzilla]

Caveat:  Remember, if Twins stink, he is a rental player after just one year, either 2nd or 3rd years are his options, meaning bye bye after one year.  Twins have no starting pitching, meaning, even after the signing of Correa, experts predict 79 wins=below .500=no chance at playoffs!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Lastly, Twins are STILL about 20+ million below last years team salary, equaling to lower half of league payroll!  Didn't they need a new stadium to "compete"???!!!!  Sounds like they need another one now=tongue-in-cheek, but not far from truth!  Whatever!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Dawgzilla]

Why can't Twins spend more than 130 million, why not 150+, which is still far below what Yanks, Cubs, Phillies, Dodgers, Red Sox, White Sox, Braves, Blue Jays, etc. spend???!!!

[tarheeltwinsfan]

13 hours ago, Unwinder said:

Honestly, I want to see the A's get a good haul. Whatever fans they have left deserve that.

Just not a huge haul from the Twins. 

[EGFTShaw]

13 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Is 130MM their budget?  Not to pick nits, but I thought it was a bit higher, maybe 5 more.

It can't be $130M after signing CC.  At this point if they need 2 quality pitchers.  I am not really counting on much from Dylan. There is no sense in paying CC $35.1M just to squander the season away.  I could see the payroll going to $150+ which is unheard of for the Twins but they will pack them in AND if they get the right pitchers make a good run.  I like to offense and now the defense of this team.  Not perfect but it is very well set.  Plus you have some pieces to work with if you want to make moves.

it is really hard to be patient now that we have been given a 5 Star entree LOL

[jccracraft]

I could see the Twins having 1-2 bullpen games in lieu of 5 starters.