Would You Do This Trade With The A's? (Redux)

[BornIn91]

Carlos Correa, eh? Well then...

...so last week after the Donaldson trade, I proposed a trade (contingent on the Twins signing Story to a long-term deal) getting Matt Chapman and Sean Manaea from the A's, sending away Royce Lewis, Simeon Woods-Richardson, and Gio Urshela. Obviously, a lot has changed since then. Not only is Chapman gone, but it's Correa, not Story, and he's on what is effectively a one-year deal (as long as he doesn't get hurt). Which means that basically takes Lewis out of the equation for any trade as he's presumably still viewed as the Twins SS of the future (post-Correa). And if they REALLY want to take advantage of having Correa manning short for one year, they can't dilly-dally around with pitching. Which means that any trade package with the A's *needs* to at least include Montas (as Manaea alone likely won't move the needle enough). And with no Lewis, any trade package for Montas probably STARTS with Martin. If they want to go crazy and include Manaea as well, I can't see Balazovic not being a part of that deal. And ether way, the Twins would need to add more. But since we're going crazy with Correa, why not keep going crazy? 

Twins get...
- Frankie Montas
- Sean Manaea
- Minor League Flier

A's get...
- Austin Martin
- Jordan Balazovic
- Either  A ) Simeon Woods Richardson  B ) Josh Winder  C ) Matt Canterino (my personal preference is SWR, but I'm fine with any of them)

That's 2 high-quality MLB starting pitchers at a combined $16M, with one having Cy Young votes last year, for a top-40/50 prospect, a top 100 prospect, and one more high-upside arm.

Who says no?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Obligatory https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

Winder (13.1) as the 3rd piece would put us over.

[TopGunn#22]

I would hate to give up either Lewis or Martin (and Balazovic) but as I said in a different thread, it's time to push all the chips to the center of the table and call the bet.  I'd do Martin or Lewis, Balazovic and SWR.  But I'd ask for Lou Trivion (only a 1.10 MLB Trade Value) instead of minor league "filler" / "Flier."  Go for a back end bullpen arm that can help us NOW.  I also like the idea of a Conforto or someone in LF at a bargain.  I'd still like to include Arraez in this instead of Martin or Lewis.  He's MLB proven and versatile.  Oakland needs some guys that they can play NOW.  They'd still get a young arm like Balazovic.

[RedBull34]

4 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I would hate to give up either Lewis or Martin (and Balazovic) but as I said in a different thread, it's time to push all the chips to the center of the table and call the bet.  I'd do Martin or Lewis, Balazovic and SWR.  But I'd ask for Lou Trivion (only a 1.10 MLB Trade Value) instead of minor league "filler" / "Flier."  Go for a back end bullpen arm that can help us NOW.  I also like the idea of a Conforto or someone in LF at a bargain.  I'd still like to include Arraez in this instead of Martin or Lewis.  He's MLB proven and versatile.  Oakland needs some guys that they can play NOW.  They'd still get a young arm like Balazovic.

I don't know that the Twins will spend for Conforto, Montas, and Manaea.  I think Pham is more realistic.

I mean even Montas and Manaea are another 15 MM and Conforto is probably 18??? Plus Conforto is a LH OF, which the Twins don't need more of.

[Dman]

It is going to be interesting to see what Oakland gets for Montas and Manea.  I really think they will want to tie Andrus's salary to any deal.  Given what we just shelled out for Correa and the fact we don't need Andrus even in a utility role gives me less hope on getting Montas. Maybe Oakland is fine eating Andrus's salary since they have purged so much money already but if they want to rid themselves of the 15M he is owed next year then they will likely need to tie it to Montas.  

If the A's split those pitchers up then I could see the Twins getting Manea.  There is a lot of competition for Montas and no one has over payed yet or the A's would have pulled the trigger.  Billy knows how to get value and is soaking this for everything he can get.  Will be interesting to see who pays up.

[dxpavelka]

This feels like Jack Morris in 91.  Push the chips in.

[dxpavelka]

2 minutes ago, Dman said:

It is going to be interesting to see what Oakland gets for Montas and Manea.  I really think they will want to tie Andrus's salary to any deal.  Given what we just shelled out for Correa and the fact we don't need Andrus even in a utility role gives me less hope on getting Montas. Maybe Oakland is fine eating Andrus's salary since they have purged so much money already but if they want to rid themselves of the 15M he is owed next year then they will likely need to tie it to Montas.  

If the A's split those pitchers up then I could see the Twins getting Manea.  There is a lot of competition for Montas and no one has over payed yet or the A's would have pulled the trigger.  Billy knows how to get value and is soaking this for everything he can get.  Will be interesting to see who pays up.

Taking Andrus is not a terrible idea since Correa's probably a one year bridge guy and if you're truly contending you can never have too many quality ball players.  If you're in contention, Andrus is the type of guy you'd be pursuing at the deadline anyway.  The deal's gonna have to include Martin or Lewis.  Correa's your bridge guy this year and Andrus is the same at the start of next year.   I don't think Andrus has ever played 2B but as a quality SS he could probably serve as a late inning defensive replacement for Polanco on a contender as well.

[Otto von Ballpark]

3 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

This feels like Jack Morris in 91.  Push the chips in.

Chili Davis is available — he was fired as the Mets hitting coach last year.

I think Mike Pagliarulo and Steve Bedrosian should be available too.

[Dman]

3 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Taking Andrus is not a terrible idea since Correa's probably a one year bridge guy and if you're truly contending you can never have too many quality ball players.  If you're in contention, Andrus is the type of guy you'd be pursuing at the deadline anyway.  The deal's gonna have to include Martin or Lewis.  Correa's your bridge guy this year and Andrus is the same at the start of next year.   I don't think Andrus has ever played 2B but as a quality SS he could probably serve as a late inning defensive replacement for Polanco on a contender as well.

That is a good point.  Andrus's salary this year in only around 7M.  If Correa splits after this year paying him 15M next year wouldn't hurt that much.  Hopefully Oakland makes a decision today so we don't have to keep wondering.

[Doctor Gast]

 

We have an over abundance of corner fielders and lack depth at key positions SS and CF. I would not trade either Lewis or Martin because they add quality depth everywhere especially SS and CF. That'd make many players obsolete and available for trading. OAK needs an 2B and 3B, so that makes Arraez attractive to them, I'd throw in a corner fielder prospect and they'd want a pitching prospect

I don't think OAK would except either of your offers IMO you under bid. Also your 2nd offer, although I'd love both Montas and Manaea. But because of the increasing interest in them, IMO they'd trade them separately to generate more worth. My choice would be Montas, w/o a doubt even if they want to throw in Andrus, I'd try to flip him later. If they won't take Arraez for some reason I'd move on to Manaea, because again I don't want to give up either Martin or Lewis.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

That is a good point.  Andrus's salary this year in only around 7M.  If Correa splits after this year paying him 15M next year wouldn't hurt that much.  Hopefully Oakland makes a decision today so we don't have to keep wondering.

Andrus's $15m is a vesting option. He wouldn't get the ABs with the Twins. And he has a full no-trade clause now, too. So he's not approving a trade anywhere that is going to immediately cause him to lose his ability to get his option to vest.

Probably would have waved it prior to Correa.

[Rosterman]

If you took Andru, he is an expensive (albeit on $7 mil) bech player. The problem is his contract kicks in ON HIS SAY IF TRADED if he reaches 500+ at bats. I would've taken him more if we hadn't signed Correa. But......

 

Arraez is a pefect A's player. Works the count. He will continue to have value in a hopeful future flip. He would be the centerpiece. The Twins, for the sake of salary, will only be adding one of the pitchers. Even though they have value, it is only 1-2 years. You are not going to break the "high" prospect bank. Someone like SWR and a Jax/Thorpe/Strotman would work, with one more love level prospect. The thing is the A's don't want a bunch of 40-man guys they have to protect, unless they are actually major league ready. But Martin or Lewis would be waaaaaay too much. Maybe you could include Palacios in the deal, too. Arraez, Jax, Strotman  and/or Thorpe, SWR, Palacios. Giving the A's quantity and some quality you can afford to lose.

 

The A's never want players that will become troube expensive. They want players that they can burn thru, maybe flip if they have a good moment, and keep their game interesting.

 

But, again, the Twins have to totally evaluate the worth of Lewis and Martin. How long is Kepler for the team. Can either play short? Will we need a third baseman next season (wait, we have Miranda). Even if Correa would come abck next season, it would still allow Lewis to get two full seasons of upper minor league play under his belt, or come up as a super reserve in 2023 part way thru.

 

The Twins will have Maeda back next season. Also Gray. They would have one of the A's arms if they egt the right one. Ober and Ryan may be in the mix. So you ae actually now looking at who will ge showcased for future Twins duty come 2024 and beyond. Does that make current 40-man guys Balazovic, Duran and Winder more available. Any would get a cup of coffee and that is all if the Twins trade for the A's pitcher. It especially makes you wonder about Jax and Thorpe not to mention Smeltzer. That's four names that could be passed quickly by Sands, Enlow, Canterino, Varland or SWR. Once a prospect reaches 40-man land, their leash gets smaller and smaller if they don't make an immediate jump...as there is always someone waiting in the wings.

[Dman]

42 minutes ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

Andrus's $15m is a vesting option. He wouldn't get the ABs with the Twins. And he has a full no-trade clause now, too. So he's not approving a trade anywhere that is going to immediately cause him to lose his ability to get his option to vest.

Probably would have waved it prior to Correa.

Thanks I did not understand the structure of the contract.  That is a bit of bummer as then the Twins are likely going to have to give up quite a bit of talent to get that deal done.

[jorgenswest]

If I am the A’s I want the headliner of a Montas deal to be a pitcher. The Twins don’t have that prospect.
 

it may be why we haven’t seen a deal yet. It could be the A’s won’t get a top 50 pitching prospect and will settle for Martin as the headliner.