Breaking Down the Twins Signing Carlos Correa

[Jamie Cameron]

The Twins agreed to terms on a franchise trajectory-altering signing in the early hours of Saturday morning, signing Carlos Correa to a three-year, $103.5 million contract. Come and read up on Correa, his potential impact in Minnesota and what it means for the rest of the Twins offseason.

How’s this for a Story? The best free agent this offseason just signed with the Minnesota Twins.

In an absolutely stunning turn-of-events, Carlos Correa and the Minnesota Twins agreed to a three-year, $103.5 million contract early on Saturday morning.

Earlier on Friday evening, Thad Levine had made comment on the unusually slowly unfolding trade market stifling moves, a reality frustrating Twins fans in their thirst for the team to add talent to the major league roster. Well, the Twins sure were working in immaculate, exquisite silence on this one. The delicious irony of trading the expensive contract of aging third baseman Josh Donaldson, only to sign the All-Star shortstop coveted by the Yankees with the newly-freed funds, is a breathtakingly brazen and exquisite move almost too delightful to put into words. 

The Contract and Correa’s Market
It’s innumerable the amount that Twins’ fans have collectively thought, written, tweeted, and spoken the phrase ‘we’re not getting Correa’ since pre-lockout free agency began, and with good reason. No one saw this coming. So how did the Twins acquire Correa? What does it indicate about his market, and what does the deal look like?

The three-year $103.5 million pact makes Correa the highest-paid infielder by average annual value in Major League Baseball. That sentence in itself is a marvel to type. The Twins' ability to land this deal is surely linked to the shorter, high-AAV (Average Annual Value) contract. One would think they would not have been able to contend with other suitors' offers over a longer number of years, but even this assumption is something we should call into question. This signing will result in Twins fans having a free agency-based reckoning with themselves, to reconsider what is and what is not on the table with future targets.

Correa’s three-year deal comes with player opt-outs after year one and year two, allowing Correa to test the waters of free agency if he wishes. Should he see out the entirety of his contract, he will be with the Twins through the end of his age-29 season. There will be time to agonize over Correa’s likely pre-contract-ending opt-out later. For now, who cares?

What are the Twins Getting?
So what are the Twins getting in Correa? Simply put, a superstar. Correa put up the best season of his career in 2021, amassing a whopping 5.8 fWAR over 148 games played for the Houston Astros. In 2021, Correa has a career high in home runs (26) while posting a 134 wRC+, .485 SLG, and .364 wOBA. By any offensive measure you care to choose, he’s elite.

Defensively, Correa posted 12 OAA (outs above average), good for sixth in the league behind only Nicky Lopez, Francisco Lindor, Nick Ahmed, Andrelton Simmons, and Brandon Crawford. Put simply, the Twins were able to secure the single free agent who could move the needle most in the 2022 season, for any team in the league. Oh and by the way, he rakes at Target Field.

Correa has had a clean bill of health in recent seasons, spending one 2021 trip on the IL due to health protocols, and one more in the shortened 2020 season due to a back problem. If you go back further to 2019, Correa spent a chunk of the season on the IL with back and rib injuries, but that season has been the exception, not the norm, since he made his MLB debut in 2015.

What about the Prospects?
The Correa move is a seismic pivot for the Twins, who just a week ago, traded Mitch Garver to the Texas Rangers in exchange for Isiah Kiner-Falefa with the intention that he be their starting shortstop. Talk about an adjustment.

It's easy to wonder what is next for the Twins shortstop prospects, particularly Royce Lewis, their number one draft pick in the 2017 draft. Lewis has undergone an uncanny streak of bad luck in recent seasons, punctuated by a lost season due to the pandemic in 2020 and another due to injury in 2021. The Correa deal both protects Lewis and highlights his bright future with the Twins. Lewis can get a season under his belt, moving through the high minors while Correa patrols shortstop for the Twins in 2022. It seems likely that Correa will opt out and test the waters of free agency after his first, or second season in Minnesota, meaning that if Lewis can get his development back on track, there’s a spot for him with the Twins at the major league level in 2023 and beyond. It’s a win-win in terms of competing in 2022 and maintaining flexibility at the position in the future.

What is next for the 2022 Twins?
So, er, what now? Two things are clear in the aftermath of signing Correa. First of all the Twins are clearly, undoubtedly working hard to win right now. Lastly, they still have work to do. While the signing of Correa could not have worked out more perfectly for the front office with their ‘let the off-season come to us’, approach, the same cannot be said for the rotation.

The Twins currently have Sonny Gray, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, and Dylan Bundy penciled into a very underwhelming starting five just a few short weeks from the start of the regular season. There are undoubted moves coming to address this. Whether it is Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, or a pitcher we have not considered yet (scrambles to check the starters for every team in the league), Twins fans can be left with little doubt the additional help is on the way. What a great comfort and excitement that is.

Whether Correa spends one season or three in Minnesota, the signing has indelibly altered the franchise. Correa is, by far, the best free agent the Twins have ever attracted. We will forever have to question the tired refrain of ‘player x isn’t coming here’ or ‘we have no shot’. The Twins just signed the number one free agent this off-season, let that sink in. 

Carlos Correa plays for the Minnesota Twins.

 

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[Tjwalsh65]

Is this all a dream.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Two things:

1. He's gotta redeem himself from his past cheating 

2. Twins have gotta acquire more pitching to make this move pay off

If both of the above happen, this is gonna make every game with the Yankees fun, and Central Division eats Twins' dust.

 

[Whitey333]

Very bold, interesting, and totally unexpected. We do need starting pitching.  Hopefully we address that as well.  For what they paid Correa they could have gotten two quality starting pitchers.  If they add a starting pitcher or two they could actually contend.  Nice.

[Game7-91]

[twinssporto]

This move should also energize the other Twins players...I bet they will have fun at camp today.

[bighat]

36 minutes ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

Two things:

1. He's gotta redeem himself from his past cheating 

2. Twins have gotta acquire more pitching to make this move pay off

If both of the above happen, this is gonna make every game with the Yankees fun, and Central Division eats Twins' dust.

 

He has redeemed himself.

Correa hit 279/.366/.485 with a career-high 26 homers in 640 plate appearances this past season.

[umterp23]

Front office with a strategy?  Jury is still out in my opinion.  Made some head scratching moves/non-moves thus far in their tenure, but they sure have brought the buzz back this week, whether good or bad just depends on the seat you sit in.  Starting pitching still is questionable, so maybe the A's become that dance partner over the next couple of days. Go Twins!

 

[The Mad King]

Did Falvine really just play the Yankees like that? Planned? Or just odd luck...

[darwin22]

Well.....as a Twins fan for nearly 50 years, this is easily the most UN-TWINS like move ever done.  Will be easy for many to criticize this deal placing blame on the Pohlad family, Levine and Falvey. I, for one, have been very critical of their recent decisions.  Today, though, I will give them credit for trying to bring back WINNING baseball to this franchise.  Again, this is NOT the past "Twins Way"of doing business.  This is the first time this organization made a free agent signing of this magnitude.  

Putting aside possible personal feelings of dislike for Correa (involvement and comments controversy in Houston), this deal is a MAJOR win for the Twins.  Although a 3-year $105m deal on paper, its truly a 1-year $35m deal for this season as Correa will opt out to hit the market to land a Cory Seager like ($325/ 10 year)deal.  Assuming Correa can stay healthy and put up numbers anywhere close to what he did last season, his future as a Twin totally rests with Falvey/front office.  With the current state of our pitching staff (which might be changing), I don't see this team competing for a playoff slot by the trade deadline. At that time, if Correa is productive and the FO knowing he'll opt out for 2023, Falvey should be able to wield a massive prospect haul in a trade.

What MIGHT alter a Correa trade later this summer is if the Twins can actually swing a deal with OAK to acquire Montas,  He is the SP that I covet, not Manaea.  I believe Montas' current contract relatively affordable for 2 more years.  As evidenced by their recent firesale, the A's will trade Montas, but it will require sacrificing talent.  Would be interested to hear feedback from others if the following deal would land Montas.

Twins trade the following players:

Luis Arraez

Simeon Woods-Richardson

and 1 these 3--------Jhoan Duran, Blayne Enlow or Louie Varland.

and 1 other lower level hitter---Cavaco or possibly Rooker.

If I'm Falvey, I don't make a deal for Montas that requires giving up Winder or Balazovic.  I also don't give up Austin Martin or Royce Lewis.

IMO opinion, OAK would make a deal involving some combination of the 4 players listed above.

If Montas is added in a trade, that could potentially change the landscape of the Twins automatically flipping Correa for prospects at the trade deadline.  Not likely, but possible when taking into account the expanded playoffs.

 

 

 

[Otaknam]

Definitely a “wow” moment for this franchise! Make a big splash for likely one year, which gives Lewis time to show if he can play shortstop. The next logical step would be a package that includes prospects like Austin Martin, Balazovic and other  and high minors SP  depth for Montas  or another starter. Go Twins! Just don’t mortgage the future for one season of 90 wins and a short playoff run. 

[miller761]

Excited and proud to be a Twin's fan this morning!

Great job front office!

Can't wait to see the next move!

[jmlease1]

Correa is a fantastic fit for the Twins. He's an impact player on offense who hits lefties & righties, home or away and provides 20 hr pop at a position where power is harder to find...and does it while not being a K-machine. An average season by him at the plate is an excellent one, the kind of performance the twins haven't gotten...ever? His defense is elite and he makes the routine plays and the spectacular ones. He's a complete player and fills the hole wonderfully.

I'll be interested to see where he hits in this lineup; I'm guessing he might land 3rd? Maybe it goes:

• Buxton
• Polanco
• Correa
• Kirilloff
• Sano
• Kepler
• Miranda
• Arraez
• Jeffers

That looks pretty fun!

[terrydactyls]

I read an alert on my phone this morning that said Correa had signed with the Twins.  I figured Randballs was messing with our heads.  Then I found out it was the truth! What a shock.  But also, this is what I have repeatedly posted that the Twins should do.  I finally made an accurate prediction.  Yea me!!!!

Next up is Arraez, Balazovic, Steer, Rooker,  Sano, and Enlow to Oakland for Montas and Shea Longeliers or Tyler Soderstrom (two top catching prospects).

[mikelink45]

I love it - and it is not just fans - Gleeman and the Geek have made the Twins are not going to sign Correa statement weekly like the rest of us.  It is shocking, but it is also possibly just one year with the opt outs so we have to win this year to maximize the return.  Does this mean we could include Royce Lewis in a trade?  Something else has to happen - at least one really good pitcher has to come here and I have no idea what the A's will require.  

At least now the interest is high again and anticipation will be higher!

[Nashvilletwin]

The more I think about it, it’s really a one year deal. Don’t get me wrong, I like the deal.

Maybe Correa likes it here and he hangs out for more than one year. Maybe we renegotiate a new deal after next year. Maybe Lewis really is a shortstop and is ready sooner rather than later. Maybe we trade him at the deadline for a haul.  Etc, etc.

The point is that this thing could go a number of ways, but for today I’m ecstatic. 

 

[Bradfoot]

Love this signing.  It would be a bummer if he opts out after 1 year though.  Shocking that he agreed to 3 years, thought for sure he would find one of those absurdly long deals that burns the team for last 3-4 years.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

Hmmm...

 

Correa only got opt outs after the first two seasons...

[rv78]

UNBELIEVABLE! I am still trying to pick myself up off the floor. This will only make sense when tomorrow we here that they traded him away for Sanchez and Urshela Clones. Ok FO, time to finish the picture and get 1, hopefully 2 quality starters to fill out the rotation and make this Correa signing worthwhile, otherwise it won't put you over the hump.

[PopRiveter]

“The delicious irony of trading the expensive contract of aging third baseman Josh Donaldson, only to sign the All-Star shortstop coveted by the Yankees with the newly-freed funds, is a breathtakingly brazen and exquisite move almost too delightful to put into words.”

 

So well said! I’m on board. Let’s make baseball fun again!

[VivaBomboRivera!]

1 hour ago, bighat said:

He has redeemed himself.

Correa hit 279/.366/.485 with a career-high 26 homers in 640 plate appearances this past season.

That's not redemption.  That's just another season playing with the rest of the cheaters.

Nevertheless, it would be nice to see that kind of a line on the Twins charts.

[Genera10bserver]

Lineup

Kepler

Buxton

Correa

Kiriloff

Sano

Sanchez

Polanco

Urshela

Arraez

[Vanimal46]

Not going to lie I didn’t think signing Correa was in the realm of possibilities, which is why so much focus was put on Trevor Story. Correa is significantly better than him and I’m thrilled he’s coming to Minnesota! 

[Rosterman]

Wow! How the trade market can supplement the free agent market.

 

The Twins essentially traded Donaldson (and his salary relief) + Garver and Rortvedt for Correa, Sanchez, Urshela and a pitching prospect. 

 

Somehow they managed to grab a shortstop that interested the Yankees and flip him to the Yankees, to get them to eat the Donaldson contract, and also in the process eliminated the Yankees from the #1 free agent hunt.

 

Good work, front office.

 

It is soemthing a mid-level team like the Twins have to do. WHen you overpay, overpay short-term, or even just for a one off like this.

 

Hopefully a trade of our over abundance of rotation arm prospects is still in the works with Oakland.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Imagine if someone went to sleep a week ago and woke up this morning to look at the projected lineup:

[RJA]

I am greatly surprised, greatly impressed, and extremely excited.  Even if the season goes south, the Twins have the ability to trade him this summer for what should be a great prospect, assuming of course, that he plans to opt out after year one which is a given.  Now they should really stun us and strike a trade for BOTH Montas and Manaea.  That would cost a number of our top prospects and some young talent like Arraez or Larnach, but boy if Ryan is our fourth starter, watch out Central Division.  More realistically, even adding Montas would be huge.  I could also see them checking with the Marlins about their young pitchers and the Astros about Odo.  I suspect more fun is yet to come.

[singlesoverwalks]

Correa >>> Simmons

Gray < Berríos

Urshela << Donaldson

Jeffers < Garver

Bundy = Pineda (hopefully?)

Sánchez < Cruz

Buxton could be healthier, veterans could have career years, young players could improve. There is reason for optimism. But the off-season still looks like a wash at best if there isn't more coming, especially given how bad the pitching already was. 

[RJA]

As of now, outfield of Kirilloff, Buxton, and Kepler.  Infield of Urshela, Correa, Polanco, and Sano with Jeffers behind the plate and Sanchez, Arraez and a fourth outfielder rotating through the lineup and as DH.  Lots of POTENTIAL 30 homer guys in that lineup.

[lukeduke1980]

I little bit expect Cashman to call falvey and make him trade Correa to the Yankees. 

[PopRiveter]

41 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The more I think about it, it’s really a one year deal. Don’t get me wrong, I like the deal.

Maybe Correa likes it here and he hangs out for more than one year. Maybe we renegotiate a new deal after next year. Maybe Lewis really is a shortstop and is ready sooner rather than later. Maybe we trade him at the deadline for a haul.  Etc, etc.

The point is that this thing could go a number of ways, but for today I’m ecstatic. 

 

I personally LOVE the flexibility of this deal. Basically, as long as it is successful for both sides, we can get 3 years of a great player and a chance to extend.
If the team tanks, he bails and the Twins don’t have to pay. 

It’s rare that I like an expensive free agent signing, but this is a no-lose proposition in my opinion.