The Risers and Fallers From Fangraphs Prospect Rankings

[Matthew Lenz]

It’s been a little over a week since Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin released the Top 39 Twins Prospects ahead of the 2022 season. This article will look at the risers, fallers, and graduates from the 2021 season and quick notes on what to expect from them this season.

Longenhagen was the lone author of the January 2021 rendition of the list so this will be an interesting comparison to see how he views these guys one year later. As a reminder, a player loses his rookie and prospect designation from the prospect list if they surpassed 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 days on the active roster. With that defined, let’s start by looking at the graduates from the 2021 list sorted by their 2021 team prospect ranking.

Graduates
#1 (in 2021) Alex Kirilloff
#3 Trevor Larnach
#4 Ryan Jeffers
#10 Gilberto Celestino
#12 Brent Rooker
#37 Nick Gordon

The Twins graduated some of their best prospects early on in 2021 but the end results left (a lot) more to be desired. Kirilloff’s season ended in July due to a wrist injury but should be penned in as the opening day 1st basemen. Larnach ended the season in AAA after a second-half OPS of .480, but I would expect him to be the everyday left fielder at some point this season. Jeffers stuck around after his June 1st promotion but ended the season batting below the Mendoza line and a career-low (minors included) .401 slugging percentage. Celestino only got 59 at-bats but was on the roster for almost two full months where he slashed .136/.177/.288. I’m not sure what a role would look like for him in 2022 other than maybe the last guy on the roster used as a late-game defensive replacement and pinch-runner. Rooker, who had an exciting start to his career in 2020, was able to eclipse the Mendoza line…by a point…in 2021 but may not have a spot in the 2022 lineup without an injury or trade. Gordon was the lone bright spot and really carved out a role for himself as a super-utility ending the season with a .752 OPS in the last month.

Top 3 Risers
#3 Jose Miranda, UT (+17)
It’s no surprise that the Twins Minor League Player of the Year shot up prospect boards after his meteoric 2021 season. With 30 home runs and a .973 OPS between AA-Wichita and AAA-St. Paul, the utility infielder will be one to keep an eye on during an abbreviated Spring Training although I wouldn’t anticipate him being with the Twins on Opening Day.

#12 Marco Raya, RHP(+11)
On the contrary from Miranda, it was surprising to see Raya jump 11 spots considering he has yet to see game action in 18 months with the Twins due to shoulder soreness in 2021. Raya has some electric stuff but a small frame.. It remains to be seen whether or not his stuff can play at the professional level and if he’ll be a starter or reliever.

#4 Josh Winder, RHP (+9)
Winder dominated AA-Wichita to the tune of a sub-2 ERA and struck out more than 10 batters per nine innings. That performance earned him a promotion to AAA-St. Paul where he didn’t find the same success in just four starts before being shut down with shoulder tightness.

Honorable Mention: Spencer Steer, 2B (+9)

“Top” 3 Fallers
#24 Aaron Sabato, 1B (-16)
Sabato’s 2021 wasn’t all bad…he ended on a high note with an OPS north of 1.000 after being promoted to high-A-Cedar Rapids in 75 at-bats. But when your value is almost exclusively as a power hitter, it’s hard to ignore the .410 slugging across the entirety of the season. He’s a non-roster invite to Spring Training but I’d imagine he’ll spend most of this season at AA-Wichita.

#28 Blayne Enlow, LHP (-11)
This fall is mostly attributed to needing Tommy John and missing most of the 2021 season and at least half the 2022 season. He’s still only 22 and the Twins believe in him enough to protect him from the Rule 5 draft this offseason, and he just might end up on the “risers” side of this list next year.

#27 Chris Vallimont, RHP (-9)
After encouraging 2018 and 2019 minor league seasons, he returned from a missed 2020 season and really struggled with his control, walking six batters per nine. He turns 25 in three days and hasn’t had any success past A-ball in three minor league seasons. He’s always been a starter, but he reworked some things in 2021 and if that doesn’t work, he may need to look at a relief role if he has a shot at being a Major League pitcher someday. I think 2022 will be the deciding factor on what his future looks like.

Looking at Langenhagen’s 2022 list, who graduates, who rises, and who falls a year from now? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

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[DJL44]

Raya definitely "failed up". Compare to Enlow - at least Enlow had some success on the field before the injury.

[Charles Koller]

Sabato really struggled. Feels like his ceiling at this point is "Rooker-esque". Enlow has been hampered by injuries. Hopefully a healthy year stops the freefall.

[Dman]

I think Spencer Steer opened some eyes with the power he added to his game.  He could be plus defensively at 2nd and 3rd as well so lot's to like there.  He definitely deserved to be moved up.  His plate discipline seemed to slip a bit after he got moved up to AA but in general his eye at the plate has been good.  Will be interesting to see how he does this year.  If he keeps that OPS in the mid 800's the Twins are going to have find room for him.

I don't know what to think about Raya and they must be going off scouting reports to move him up but it all seem premature to me.  He looks good but it has to translate to games as well.  Nice to see him move up and hopefully he proves the analysts right.

Sabato needed to come down.  When a player can't even connect with the ball at the Rookie level he needs to drop.  Maybe some reflection in his time off will help him.  I hope so but a drop was expected after how his season started.

Same for Vallimont. The K's were there but so were the walks.  The WHIP and ERA were bad.  If he can't find find the strike zone he will be a non-prospect very soon.  Personally I think he will clean things up but he has to prove it this year or likely find another team.  The Twins can't afford to keep him of the 40 man if he can't produce.

[se7799]

Quick question Mathew.  I see Gordon has graduated...all good.  But it shows as he was the 37th ranked prospect in 2021  according to this.  Maybe a typo?  I know he's mainly a utility type guy that plays a few different positions and is still young, but there is no way we have 36 other prospects in our system that will have a better career than Gordon...even if it's just a couple of years. But I need to ask please, who thought he was our 37th ranked prospect in our system in 2021?  Is this a typo or do you believe there are 36 players in our system whom are better and will make the major league ball club?  That's a heck of a farm system if true.

[Matthew Lenz]

44 minutes ago, se7799 said:

Quick question Mathew.  I see Gordon has graduated...all good.  But it shows as he was the 37th ranked prospect in 2021  according to this.  Maybe a typo?  I know he's mainly a utility type guy that plays a few different positions and is still young, but there is no way we have 36 other prospects in our system that will have a better career than Gordon...even if it's just a couple of years. But I need to ask please, who thought he was our 37th ranked prospect in our system in 2021?  Is this a typo or do you believe there are 36 players in our system whom are better and will make the major league ball club?  That's a heck of a farm system if true.

Those rankings are Langenhagens from pre-2021. At the time Gordon was 25 years old, spent 7 years in minor league ball not including an 8th year at the alternate site. I’m not educated enough on the Twins system to know if there are 36 better guys, but it didn’t take me by surprise that he was 37 everything considered.

[Mike Sixel]

18 minutes ago, Matthew Lenz said:

Those rankings are Langenhagens from pre-2021. At the time Gordon was 25 years old, spent 7 years in minor league ball not including an 8th year at the alternate site. I’m not educated enough on the Twins system to know if there are 36 better guys, but it didn’t take me by surprise that he was 37 everything considered.

They definitely had him ranked that low. 

[old nurse]

9 hours ago, se7799 said:

Quick question Mathew.  I see Gordon has graduated...all good.  But it shows as he was the 37th ranked prospect in 2021  according to this.  Maybe a typo?  I know he's mainly a utility type guy that plays a few different positions and is still young, but there is no way we have 36 other prospects in our system that will have a better career than Gordon...even if it's just a couple of years. But I need to ask please, who thought he was our 37th ranked prospect in our system in 2021?  Is this a typo or do you believe there are 36 players in our system whom are better and will make the major league ball club?  That's a heck of a farm system if true.

Fangraphs uses a projection system based on what the player has done in the minors. When Gordon was in AAA in 2019 he stunk. That shattered his ranking methodology. Gordon was a versatile replacement level utility player last year. If he doesn’t advance past that his career will last as long his willingness to be cut and move on. 

We’re there 36 better prospects? If everyone progressed ad the model say the answer is yes. Thus far it would be safe to say at this moment Lanarch and Rooker haven’t met the projections. Blankenhorn got his cup of coffee and shown he is similar to Gordon in value. He was also similar in ranking.  Will Gordon prove his fangraphs rating as wrong? Well, consider all the lofty top 100 rankings he had. He proved them wrong, he can certainly do it in the other direction

[DJL44]

For Fangraphs pay more attention to the "FV" rating. There are usually a dozen players with a "40" future value.

[Alex Schieferdecker]

I just love Winder's throwing motion. I have no idea if it's a healthy one or not, but it just looks so smooth.