Trevor Story’s Splits Shouldn’t Scare You

[Thiéres Rabelo]

Rumors about the Twins pursuing shortstop Trevor Story in free agency has rendered a large portion of Twins fans excited. However, every time a former Colorado Rockie draws interest from other teams, some fans will inevitably point out the “Coors Effect.” Should that really dissuade the Twins from signing Story?

First and foremost, I believe it’s crucial to get as much important information about this topic as possible out in the open. People shouldn’t just stick to shallow common-places when there’s so much in-depth information and analysis out there. That’s especially true when it comes to the effects of altitude in baseball.

In this brilliant 2020 article, Rox Pile’s Kevin Larson buts the myth that hitters at Coors Field only succeed because of the altitude. I’ll be quoting a few parts of that article here, but I think everyone would learn a lot if they read the whole thing. Basically, Larson advises people to do two things when analyzing players' performances at Coors:

• Take into account the unique circumstances Rockies hitters live through, having to adjust to different pitcher approaches in Denver and on the road;
• Ignore the traditional stats splits and focus on Park Adjusted stats, like wRC+, OPS+, and DRC+, which can paint the big picture more nicely;

Then, Larson goes on to provide several examples of both hitters who improved their wRC+ after leaving the Rockies, but also the contrary, players whose offensive productivity decreased after they joined the Rockies from other teams. Can you guess a former Twin, winner of an MVP in Minnesota, who falls in that last category?

The bottom line is, things aren’t as simple as “hitters won’t succeed after leaving Coors.” Trevor Story's traditional splits sure don’t look good, but that shouldn’t be a reason not to bring him to Minnesota. Not only would the Twins be giving up on a potentially above-average right-handed hitter, but they would be bailing on one of the best defenders in the game.

One of the best examples of former Rockies who succeeded elsewhere is second baseman DJ LeMahieu, who was signed by the Yankees in 2019 and has since won two Silver Slugger awards and received MVP votes in two seasons (finishing third in 2020). Take a look at some of his numbers.

DJ LeMahieu's splits during his time with the Rockies (2012-2018), per Fangraphs:

Home
.329/.386/.447 (.834)
.374 wOBA
96 wRC+
13.4% K%
8.6% BB%

Away
.267/.314/.367 (.681)
.298 wOBA
84 wRC+
17.0% K%
6.2% BB%

DJ LeMahieu as a Yankee, overall (since 2019), per Fangraphs:

.307/.370/.461 (.831)
.356 wOBA
126 wRC+
13.2% K%
8.8% BB%

The same way the belief that “Coors hitters do badly once they leave Colorado” shouldn’t be a rule, LeMahieu’s example isn’t a rule either. Former Rockies cornerstone third baseman Nolan Arenado, for instance, didn’t improve his numbers the same way LeMahieu did. However, his overall numbers in St. Louis didn’t get worse either. They were actually slightly better than his road numbers while with the Rockies.

Nolan Arenado's splits during his time with the Rockies (2013-2020), per Fangraphs:

Home
.322/.376/.609 (.985)
.409 wOBA
129 wRC+
13.7% K%
8.0% BB%

Away
.263/.322/.471 (.793)
.334 wOBA
108 wRC+
16.3% K%
7.8% BB%

Nolan Arenado as a Cardinal, overall (since 2021), per Fangraphs:

.255/.312/.494 (.807)
.336 wOBA
113 wRC+
14.7% K%
7.7% BB%

In conclusion, Trevor Story’s splits shouldn’t dissuade the Twins from trying to sign him. As someone who follows the Rockies very closely, I can attest to how talented and hard-working he is, and also how fun it is to watch him play every night.

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[Azviking101]

"also the contrary, players whose offensive productivity decreased after they joined the Rockies from other teams. Can you guess a former Twin, winner of an MVP in Minnesota, who falls in that last category?"

What on earth are you talking about? Morneau's career was over. 3 brutal seasons in a row 2011-2013 and then a career resurgence in Colorado. .860 OPS and .821 OPS in consecutive seasons with MVP votes. Did you do your homework at all? You cannot compare his Colorado numbers to his pre-concussion numbers. 

[ashbury]

I'm all for deep dives into analytics.  But at the end of the day, we should not expect to get Coors Field Trevor Story with his .900 OPS if we sign him.  Home/road splits for Rockies players do mean something.  We'll get The Real Trevor Story, whatever that is.

Unless his defensive skills erode, we'll have a well above average shortstop if he OPS's in the high .700s, and there's additional upside (if the detailed analytics are correct) that could mean he's a vital difference-maker for a team with World Series aspirations.  That's enough to justify a low-nine-figures contract for four years.

[Azviking101]

Also, this list is mostly made up of players in the dying days of their careers.  "Now here's where it gets fun: This a table of Free Agents that the Rockies signed after these players had lengthy careers with other teams. Playing at Coors should improve their wRC+ cuz Coors, right? Well, take a look:"

Morneau, Giambi, Reynolds, Cuddy all entered Colorado in the dying days of their careers and each saw immediate resurgences

OPS below of each player the year before joining Colorado and the first yr in Colorado

Morneau- 

.741 and .681 in prior years. .860 first year OPS with Colorado

Giambi-

.697 OPS prior year. .776 and ,958 next two short seasons ( he was only averaging 180 PAs at this point in his career cause he was near his 40s)

Reynolds- .681 and .731 before. .806 and ,839 with Colorado.

Cuddyer- .753 and ,805 before. .806 and .919 with Colorado.

Some of these are not huge changes, but all of these occur at later points in players careers when their numbers should be getting worse. Showing the stats of a player in their prime and then saying their numbers got worse in their mid to late 30s with Colorado is ridiculous.

 

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, Azviking101 said:

Also, this list is mostly made up of players in the dying days of their careers.  "Now here's where it gets fun: This a table of Free Agents that the Rockies signed after these players had lengthy careers with other teams. Playing at Coors should improve their wRC+ cuz Coors, right? Well, take a look:"

Morneau, Giambi, Reynolds, Cuddy all entered Colorado in the dying days of their careers and each saw immediate resurgences

OPS below of each player the year before joining Colorado and the first yr in Colorado

Morneau- 

.741 and .681 in prior years. .860 first year OPS with Colorado

Giambi-

.697 OPS prior year. .776 and ,958 next two short seasons ( he was only averaging 180 PAs at this point in his career cause he was near his 40s)

Reynolds- .681 and .731 before. .806 and ,839 with Colorado.

Cuddyer- .753 and ,805 before. .806 and .919 with Colorado.

Some of these are not huge changes, but all of these occur at later points in players careers when their numbers should be getting worse. Showing the stats of a player in their prime and then saying their numbers got worse in their mid to late 30s with Colorado is ridiculous.

 

"Ignore the traditional stats splits and focus on Park Adjusted stats, like wRC+, OPS+, and DRC+, which can paint the big picture more nicely." Then you try to disprove his points by using non-Park Adjusted stats. Bold strategy, Cotton.

[Azviking101]

16 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

"Ignore the traditional stats splits and focus on Park Adjusted stats, like wRC+, OPS+, and DRC+, which can paint the big picture more nicely." Then you try to disprove his points by using non-Park Adjusted stats. Bold strategy, Cotton.

OPS+ shows the exact same thing. He's trying to compare stats from the player in his mid 20s to stats in their mid 30s after years of injuries.

Also he furthers his ridiculous argument by showing OPS of Arenado and Lemahieu at the bottom, but somehow me mentioning OPS is wrong?

This guy is legitimately comparing Giambi's roided up days with the A's and Yankees to his 40 year old seasons with the Rockies. Insane is what it is.

[farmerguychris]

Its not JUST about his ability to hit.  Heck, take that out of the equation.  If he's even an average SS hitter, he is also a solid defender in a position of need at an age that he could play out the entire contract (unlike Donaldson).

He will make the team better and we can figure out what to do with Lewis and Martin when the time comes.  Never balk at adding talent to a position of need.

[Riverbrian]

Trevor Story Splits do not scare me. 

Someone jumping out of a box while yelling Boo does from time to time. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

I agree with farmerguychris completely. Trevor Story is a good player, maybe a great player but at least a good player. He plays a position of need. We now have a chance to get him by freeing up payroll from paying Donaldson on the downside of his career. Analysis over. Try to sign Trevor Story and even be willing to overpay a little necessary to get him. You now have a shortstop for the next four or five years.

Lewis and Martin (I had to avoid saying Martin and Lewis to avoid thoughts of Laugh In, or do I have that backwards? )? Both are interesting players, and great prospects. They are not in the way of signing Trevor Story and should not really be a consideration. If they make it as shortstops, great trade chips or stars with Story being traded. If they movedto another position and excel? Same analysis, different names. The idea that signing Story to a multiyear contract is in any way  impacted by their timelines is simply poor roster management. Adding real talent to the roster at a position of need is almost never a bad idea. Story is real talent. We can find a place for Lewis and Martin when and if the time comes.

 

 

[twinssporto]

This is not a scary Story. I say get him in a Twins uniform!

[Otto von Ballpark]

2 hours ago, Thiéres Rabelo said:

Then, Larson goes on to provide several examples of both hitters who improved their wRC+ after leaving the Rockies, but also the contrary, players whose offensive productivity decreased after they joined the Rockies from other teams. Can you guess a former Twin, winner of an MVP in Minnesota, who falls in that last category?

 

I have to agree that this doesn't make any sense at all.

Morneau's wRC+ with Colorado was 119. He didn't touch that in his 3 prior seasons, or his 1 season after. I'm not sure that his earlier, pre-concussion peak performance in Minnesota is at all relevant in judging his Colorado numbers.

Another guy claimed to decline in Colorado is Giambi. But he had a 111 wRC+ with Colorado -- similar story to Morneau, he had a much greater earlier peak, but he came to Colorado fresh off of a 91 in Oakland, and left Colorado for 81 and 44 marks with Cleveland.

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks Thiéres   for your personal insight. Signing a front-liner won't be a bargain but at this point we don't have much good options left. Story will be a great and much needed addition. Higher the quality of depth at SS, CF and catcher the better. We need to get out the mindset that we can throw anybody at SS and CF it's OK as long he can kill the ball.

I'd want us to be like LAD that put importance on deep quality depth at SS and CF. Keep both Lewis and Martin even if we have Story and Buxton. With both Lewis & Martin we can get rid of a lot excess baggage.  

[Azviking101]

For anyone who has the athletic, Gleeman posted  an article about Story’s splits 30 minutes ago that actually makes sense. 

[chpettit19]

https://www.mlb.com/video/brian-kenny-on-trevor-story?q=Trevor Story&cp=CMS_FIRST&qt=FREETEXT&p=0

From MLB Network a short while ago.

[Nashvilletwin]

Well if declining players head to Colorado to see their hitting numbers improve, then we should probably send Sanchez to the Rockies. 

[mikelink45]

I am a Story Skeptic, but what else do we have?  He is still better than Urshela.  But in answer to the article - yes we should be concerned about his splits. 

[chpettit19]

MLB Network's Top 10 Right Now has Story at number 6 in baseball at SS.

[LewFordLives]

Does the Kris Bryant contract price Story out of the Twins budget? You could make a strong argument that Story has been the better player, and they are approximately the same age.

[Wax off]

Trevor Story’s Splits Shouldn’t Scare You... He'll Sign Elsewhere

[glunn]

11 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I agree with farmerguychris completely. Trevor Story is a good player, maybe a great player but at least a good player. He plays a position of need. We now have a chance to get him by freeing up payroll from paying Donaldson on the downside of his career. Analysis over. Try to sign Trevor Story and even be willing to overpay a little necessary to get him. You now have a shortstop for the next four or five years.

Lewis and Martin (I had to avoid saying Martin and Lewis to avoid thoughts of Laugh In, or do I have that backwards? )? Both are interesting players, and great prospects. They are not in the way of signing Trevor Story and should not really be a consideration. If they make it as shortstops, great trade chips or stars with Story being traded. If they movedto another position and excel? Same analysis, different names. The idea that signing Story to a multiyear contract is in any way  impacted by their timelines is simply poor roster management. Adding real talent to the roster at a position of need is almost never a bad idea. Story is real talent. We can find a place for Lewis and Martin when and if the time comes.

 

 

Laugh In was Rowan and Martin.  Before that there was Jerry Lewis and Dean Martin.

[kenneth frank]

I'd like to know what the plan B is for that position

[miracleb]

Agree....what is plan B.  Story isn't signing with the Twins (probably Houston.)  Palacios or Lewis?  Both will hit .220......... but Palacios will play better defense.

[Trov]

I have not been an advocate for Story signing here, but if the deal is limited to 4 seasons, maybe with a 5th year option, I would be open to it.  I mainly have argued that you will not get the offense he has produced over his career because of the splits.  Will he be terrible on offense, most likely not, but you should not pay him like he is an elite offensive SS, when all signs show he is not elite away from Denver.  Maybe he will adjust and do well.  The writer uses LeMahieu as a recent example, but fails to point out that Yankee stadium is very hitter friendly, and other than last year, his home road was still very skewed to be good home numbers. 

I have been low on Story not just for the splits, but also he is nearing 30, coming off of elbow injury, which will both greatly lower his defense over the coming years.  Many teams think he should not even stay at SS, rumors are most offers are for him moving positions.  I am not saying Story does not and will not add some value, but I am concerned too long of a contract we will be looking to dump him in a year or two like we did Donaldson because of regression.  If you knew his bat would be elite you can put up with regression in defense and still pay top dollar, but it is not expected he will hit to the overall numbers he has over his career.  

I never said the man would be subpar at the bat, but he is likely to hit at same level as Polonco did during his down offensive time at SS.  My comments against Story has mainly been to tamper expectations of fans that looked at his overall numbers and think that is who would be coming to Twins, when he will not hit at that level, and will regress quickly on defense as well.  Anything beyond 4 years Twins will regret by end of the deal. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

Bryant's contract may just have pushed Story to a higher number that the Twins won't pay. I am now less optimistic that he will sign with us. Also, the addition of KC and the NYY (among others) into the mix for Montas and Maneaa coupled with the reds saying Castillo and Mahle won't be traded makes me less optimistic that we will trade for another starter. Michael Pineda may be our best shot and we'll have competition there. We may be looking at the Twins roster going forward this year. Ugh.

By the way, what is up with Colorado? They won't re-sign Story and give Bryant a $182m contract. Huh?

[Minny505]

Preaching to the choir over here. 

Who do you think would have a better OPS in 2022 in a Twins uniform: Story or Polanco?

It's close and I'm putting my money on Story in that wager. 

[eric grundmeier]

I'd love for the Twins to sign Trevor Story, but that feels like a long shot.  It helps a little that the Yankees seems to have taken themselves out of the mix with the trade for IK-F and adding the salaries of Donaldson & Rizzo.

I recently talked to a family friend of Trevor.  The word is that Trevor is waiting for Correa to sign.  If Correa doesn't re-up with Houston, the Astros are his likely destination.  If Houston signs Correa, then Story is in play for the remaining teams that have expressed interest in signing him.  Similar to reports we've heard about Correa, Trevor appears open to signing a 1 or 2 year deal at a high AAV.  And then looking for a long-term deal when he will be a top 2 or 3 SS available on the free agent market.