Ranking the Twins Top-5 Hit Tool Prospects

[Cody Christie]

In recent years, Alex Kirilloff and Luis Arraez are two of the best-hitting prospects to come through the Twins system. Can any of these players follow in their strong hitting footsteps?

 

Scouts typically use a 20-80 scale to rank prospects based on their current and future skill level. Below you will see where these players rank currently, including their potential to improve in the years ahead. 

5. Noah Miller, SS
Current Hit/Future Hit: 25/60
Minnesota selected Miller with the 36th pick in the 2021 MLB Draft out of high school in Wisconsin. In his pro debut, he hit .238/.316/.369 (.685) with six extra-base hits in 22 games. He is a switch hitter with an advanced hitting approach. Teams can have a tough time evaluating players from cold-weather states, but Miller’s hitting profile saw him rise up draft boards last spring. Compared to other high school hitters, he has a better hitting approach, and he does a tremendous job of making consistent contact. As he continues to add weight, his swing has the potential for more power, and his hitting skills project to be among the system’s best. 

4. Misael Urbina, OF
Current Hit/Future Hit: 30/55
The Twins signed Urbina during the 2018 international signing period. Last season, Urbina played 101 games at Low-A and hit .191/.299/.286 (.585). While those totals are low, he compiled a .825 OPS as a 17-year-old in the Dominican Summer League. Losing a year of development impacted his swing in 2021, but he only had four plate appearances against younger pitchers last season. His bat-to-ball skills are considered advanced for his age, and he controls the strike zone. Starting the 2022 season at Low-A will help him gain some confidence, and he has the potential to move up to Cedar Rapids later in the year. 

3. Spencer Steer, 2B
Current Hit/Future Hit: 40/50
Steer was taken in the third round back in 2019 out of the University of Oregon. Even with the missed 2020 season, his swing took some steps forward last season. He ended the year hitting .254/.348/.484 (.833) with 18 doubles and 24 home runs between High- and Double-A. Because of his collegiate experience, his advanced approach at the plate has been his calling card. In recent years, he has reworked his swing, which may help him add more power as he moves up the organizational ladder. Steer will need to cut back on his strikeout rate as he gets closer to the big leagues, but he has hitting skills that should make him a serviceable infielder. 

2. Jose Miranda, 3B
Current Hit/Future Hit: 50/55
Many Twins fans are now very familiar with Miranda based on his breakout 2021 season. Minnesota took Miranda in the second round back in 2016. Many within the organization have been touting his potential for multiple years. His short, compact swing allows him to make contact at a consistent level which finally resulted in improved power numbers last season. Even if those power numbers decline at the big-league level, he should be able to continue to put the bat on the ball. Miranda saw an improved walk rate last season, but his ability to make contact means he swings at a lot of pitches. Can he continue to make adjustments as he gets closer to his debut?

1. Austin Martin, SS/CF
Current Hit/Future Hit: 50/60
Martin is widely considered Minnesota’s top prospect, and many scouts felt he was the top hitter in the 2020 MLB Draft. Last season, he made his pro debut and hit .270/.414/.382 (.796) at Double-A. Like Miranda, he can make contact with nearly any pitch, but he can be over patient at times. MLB Pipeline put it succinctly when saying he shows “no weaknesses at the plate.” Since joining the Twins organization, he has continued to work on altering his swing, which may produce more power in 2022. However, that might mean that he has to sacrifice contact and be more aggressive. 

Who do you think has the best hit tool in the Twins system? Should someone else make the list? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[4twinsJA]

What does someone have to do to get a 70-75 rating, Miranda hit .340 at top 2 levels of MiLB last year and only 50/55 rating?

[Devilsadvocate]

4 hours ago, 4twinsJA said:

What does someone have to do to get a 70-75 rating, Miranda hit .340 at top 2 levels of MiLB last year and only 50/55 rating?

70-80 ratings are reserved for prospects with an ELITE tool. One season of hitting .340 when you've consistently hit around .270 doesn't deserve an elite hit tool rating. 

Think Mark McGuire power, or Aroldis Chapman velocity. ELITE. 

 

[bean5302]

From MLB.com

Austin Martin = 65
Royce Lewis = 55
Misael Urbina = 55
Danny DeAndrade = 55
Alerick Soularie = 50
Jose Miranda = 50
Aaron Sabato = 50
Emmanuel Rodriguez = 50
Spencer Steer = 50
Yunior Severino = 50

From Baseball America in regard to general definitions. A 50 grade tool is "average" 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/explaining-the-20-80-baseball-scouting-scale/

Quote

20: As bad as it gets for a big leaguer. Think Billy Hamilton’s power.
30: Poor, but not unplayable, such as Edwin Encarnacion’s speed.
40: Below-average, such as Eloy Jimenez’s defense, or Trevor Bauer’s control.
45: Fringe-average. Reynaldo Lopez’s control and Kurt Suzuki’s arm qualify.
50: Major league average. Juan Soto’s speed.
55: Above-average. Nick Castellanos’ power.
60: Plus. Alex Bregman’s speed or Stephen Strasburg’s control.
70: Plus-Plus. Among the best tools in the game, such as Corey Seager’s arm, Patrick Corbin’s slider or
Francisco Lindor’s defense.
80: Top of the scale. Some scouts consider only one player’s tool in all of the major leagues to be 80.
Think of Aaron Judge’s power, Byron Buxton’s speed or Aroldis Chapman’s fastball.

It's worth noting that a players batting average may not represent their actual hit tool as plate discipline and experience can make a huge impact here. I'd say Eddie Rosario has at least a 70 grade hit tool. If he'd learn some discipline, his batting average would skyrocket. Royce Lewis scouting reports also mention Lewis being over-aggressive at the plate, but his pitch recognition and bat speed being well above average. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

8 hours ago, 4twinsJA said:

What does someone have to do to get a 70-75 rating, Miranda hit .340 at top 2 levels of MiLB last year and only 50/55 rating?

Plus 30 HR's.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I saw Miller hit one over the right field fence last week in an inter squad game of the low A vs. High A players, He hit it from the left side. I'm glad you ranked Miller in the top 5, plus you gave Miller and Martin the only two 60 ratings for future hitting. This means Miller and martin are the two best prospects as far as future hitting is concerned, I think.  Although I do not disagree, I wonder why Miller ranked so high at such a young age.  Fun article, although I would have put Miranda #1, but I understand that others would pick Martin. It is a shame Lewis is not in the top 5, but I have to agree he is not a top 5 prospect in this ranking.

[Danchat]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Plus 30 HR's.

Power is a separate tool from hitting, so that's not going to be a factor in this ranking.

[Devilsadvocate]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

From MLB.com

Austin Martin = 65
Royce Lewis = 55
Misael Urbina = 55
Danny DeAndrade = 55
Alerick Soularie = 50
Jose Miranda = 50
Aaron Sabato = 50
Emmanuel Rodriguez = 50
Spencer Steer = 50
Yunior Severino = 50

From Baseball America in regard to general definitions. A 50 grade tool is "average" 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/explaining-the-20-80-baseball-scouting-scale/

It's worth noting that a players batting average may not represent their actual hit tool as plate discipline and experience can make a huge impact here. I'd say Eddie Rosario has at least a 70 grade hit tool. If he'd learn some discipline, his batting average would skyrocket. Royce Lewis scouting reports also mention Lewis being over-aggressive at the plate, but his pitch recognition and bat speed being well above average. 

Eddie Rosario definitely did not have/does not have a 70 hit tool. 

I would venture to say that the highest he was rated in hit tool was 60, by any respectable publication.

[ToddlerHarmon]

Based purely on results, I wonder where Eduoard Julien ranks for a hit tool. Or is he all pitch selection?

[RJA]

I know I am a broken record (or the digital age equivalent) on this, but I think Emmanuel Rodriquez has a higher hit tool ceiling than Steer or Urbina, Cody.  What number would you assign to his future hit tool?  Thanks for the article.  Always interesting to speculate on prospects.

[bean5302]

13 hours ago, Devilsadvocate said:

Eddie Rosario definitely did not have/does not have a 70 hit tool. 

I would venture to say that the highest he was rated in hit tool was 60, by any respectable publication.

I'm entitled to my opinion as much as anybody else. If you've watched Rosario and the kind of utterly trash pitches he's driven hard, you might feel different. Rosario hit .288 and .290 while still chasing trash and walking at 5% across 2017-2018. Rosario typically posts excellent contact rates despite his aggressive style and the fact he receives a low percentage of pitches in the strike zone. Rosario does and can recognize balls vs. strikes. He's just overly aggressive. Rosario could compete for the batting title if he'd lay off the trash pitches. Instead, early in his career, Rosario sold out for power trying to keep up with Sano and I believe he's been arrogant as a result of his successes in hitting garbage.

There is some hope for him. Rosario is trying to tighten up his game based on his swinging strike rate and o-contact rates. His swinging strike rate was under 10% last year and his o-contact rate has skyrocketed while his overall swing percentage hasn't dropped much.

 

[Devilsadvocate]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I'm entitled to my opinion as much as anybody else. If you've watched Rosario and the kind of utterly trash pitches he's driven hard, you might feel different. Rosario hit .288 and .290 while still chasing trash and walking at 5% across 2017-2018. Rosario typically posts excellent contact rates despite his aggressive style and the fact he receives a low percentage of pitches in the strike zone. Rosario does and can recognize balls vs. strikes. He's just overly aggressive. Rosario could compete for the batting title if he'd lay off the trash pitches. Instead, early in his career, Rosario sold out for power trying to keep up with Sano and I believe he's been arrogant as a result of his successes in hitting garbage.

There is some hope for him. Rosario is trying to tighten up his game based on his swinging strike rate and o-contact rates. His swinging strike rate was under 10% last year and his o-contact rate has skyrocketed while his overall swing percentage hasn't dropped much.

 

Yes, I've likely seen Eddie play just as many games as you have and understand his deficiencies as a hitter. 

I do agree with on one thing though - You're definitely entitled to you own opinion.