4 Things to Keep an Eye on at Twins Spring Training

[Nick Nelson]

Spring camp is underway and the Twins are set to kick off an abbreviated exhibition schedule on Thursday against Boston. From there, they'll begin a three-week ramp toward Opening Day at Target Field.

Here are four key player storylines to watch closely as spring training unfolds.

Even those fans who can't make it down to Fort Myers this spring will have plenty of opportunities to catch the team in action, with 12 of 16 Grapefruit League games slated to be televised. 

If you get a chance to tune in, keep an eye on these players as they look to rebound from various injuries and setbacks. 

Taylor Rogers' finger

Rogers hasn't pitched in a game since he walked off the mound shaking his finger last July 26th at Target Field. His status has been a major source of uncertainty in Minnesota's planning and outlook. They badly need him to return as the bullpen stalwart of years past. But can they count on it?

Theoretically, Rogers should be well clear of the middle-finger sprain that ended his season. The injury took place almost eight months ago and didn't require surgery. But Twins fans who've watched middle-finger issues dramatically affect other slider-reliant pitchers like Ervin Santana and Randy Dobnak can't take for granted that Rogers will be the same guy as before – especially given that he's now 31 at the volatile position of relief pitcher.

The Twins will be in big trouble if Rogers can't get back to his previous level or close. It'll be interesting to see how comfortable he is letting loose after the long layoff, as well as the more measurable aspects like velocity, spin, and results.

Good news so far: Rogers is throwing in camp with no apparent hindrance. 

Dobnak will be worth watching for the same reason, given that he's also coming off a finger injury that mostly ruined his season. But he's not nearly as vital as Rogers to the team's plans this year.

Royce Lewis' movements and defense

Seeing Lewis on the field in general will be a sight for sore eyes. Coming off a season lost to a major knee injury, it will be especially interesting to see how the 22-year-old is running and moving, given how much of his value and upside are tied to his special athleticism.

Is the top-end speed still fully intact? Is he moving laterally with comfort and ease? Most importantly: how does he look at shortstop? Lewis' ability to stick at the position was already in question before the missed time and injury. Yet he remains the best long-term hope in the organization, and as of now, the door is wide open. 

Alex Kirilloff's swing

After joining the Twins last year, Kirilloff started 0-for-14 in his first five games. Then his potential shined through, as he slashed .327/.346/.674 in his next 12 games while showing remarkable power – four home runs and five doubles in 52 plate appearances. 

The rest of the way, Kirilloff was largely hampered by a wrist injury that sapped his power, managing just four homers and a .382 slugging percentage in his last 42 games. It was fairly evident from watching him swing the bat that he just wasn't quite right. The Twins eventually shut him down and he underwent season-ending surgery on July 23rd. We haven't seen him since.

Well, Rocco Baldelli has, and he likes what he sees. 

That Kirilloff appears unrestricted is a good sign. He's now almost eight months removed from a procedure said to require about eight weeks of recovery, so he should be totally good in that regard. But there are no guarantees for hitters coming back from significant wrist surgeries. I'll be keeping a close eye on how his swing looks and how loud the contact is.

Tyler Duffey's velocity

Last spring, Duffey came to camp and raised some eyebrows with his reduced velocity, working in the high 80s after dominating with mid-90s heat the previous two seasons. For his part, the reliever downplayed any concerns, but his spring was a precursor to a 2021 season that saw his velocity drop to new lows as a reliever – with performance tailing off in tandem.

Like Rogers, Duffey's success carries outsized importance in a bullpen full of question marks. Can he find that 96-MPH fastball again or is he a low-90s guy (or worse) now as he ages into his 30s? Those extra couple of ticks make an enormous difference for him.

The radar gun in Fort Myers could provide key early indicators.

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[Melissa Berman]

Fun article. Who would've thought that we'd have a relatively normal spring training after all! Next year I am ABSOLUTELY going down to the Fort. 

[The Mad King]

I'd say those are things to watch. I'd want to see Alcala's confidence level. You can see it in his face when he pitches. He's much better when he has it. 

Keeping an eye on Buxton... Keep him in a damn bubble...

I almost forgot Kiriloff's 0-14. I once went 0-14, and I turned out just fi.... Never mind.

[mike8791]

Nick, glad you bring up uncertainties about Rogers and Duffy.  Rogers was letting a lot of inherited runs scored before the injury.  And one might question why the FO brought in Colome as closer to start the season.  As for Duffy, he, too, must be a big question mark after his big falloff from previous years.  He righted himself later in the season - when all the pressure was off, but to think he can rebound to previous two year levels is just irresponsible.

Which brings up a bigger question: why is the FO sitting on their hands as multiple FA relievers are flying off the market?  Are they incapable of juggling several balls at a time?  Sure, the rotation should take precedence, but the if they fail to add 2 more starters like Gray, they would certainly need to bolster a very shaky pen if they had any hope of improving on 2021.  To my mind, bolstering the pen is even more vital than adding a big time SS three weeks from opening day.  What are they waiting for??

[se7799]

1 hour ago, Melissa Berman said:

Fun article. Who would've thought that we'd have a relatively normal spring training after all! Next year I am ABSOLUTELY going down to the Fort. 

Definitely the highlight of my year.  If you've never been, you will absolutely love it.  Soooo much baseball going on everywhere.  Complete overload, makes a person feel like a kid.  Though becomes addicting more every year.  You won't regret it. ?

[terrydactyls]

I, too, went 0 for 14 several times.  But that was when I was trying to get dates.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

The Twins will be in big trouble if Rogers can't get back to his previous level or close.

I'd personally pump the brakes a bit on such a dire outlook.  No reliever, not even a closer, is worth more than a couple of wins, compared to the guy who they'd have to plug in as replacement.  They'd likely need to go out and acquire someone else - but relievers can be had for a decent prospect, no more.

[IndianaTwin]

I had several 0-for-14 strings. Often back-to-back. 

[Melissa Berman]

33 minutes ago, se7799 said:

Definitely the highlight of my year.  If you've never been, you will absolutely love it.  Soooo much baseball going on everywhere.  Complete overload, makes a person feel like a kid.  Though becomes addicting more every year.  You won't regret it. ?

I've been several times, but between taking the Bar Exam in Feb 2020, the pandemic last year, and the lockout this year, it's been since 2019 for me!! Much too long, Completely agree that it's such a wonderful experience and the Twins' spring training complex is gorgeous! Gotta wash all that baseball down with some Sun Harvest Citrus too! Next year I'll be back

[RaoulDuke]

I am very interested to see where Kirilloff plays, they need to find a spot for him now his development should be a high priority. 

The easy move was to give him first and move Sano to DH, now Gary Sanchez is in that DH mix (and maybe Sano is in the 3rd base mix a little bit?).  They can give him LF but he seems better suited to RF and Martin/ Lewis are coming for LF eventually.  He could bounce around but it would be nice to hand him a position and let him focus on hitting.

The current bullpen is scary if they want to contend.  Betting on Rodgers/ Duffey/ Alcala/ Thielbar all taking a step forward or returning to form is a real gamble.  They need to sign as legit a back end arm as they can get at this point, or trade for a controllable one.

Miranda is the other big thing to watch, 3rd base is currently open for the taking.  Urshela or Arraez probably starts there but Miranda could make some real noise with a good spring.

 

[h2oface]

6 hours ago, ashbury said:

I'd personally pump the brakes a bit on such a dire outlook.  No reliever, not even a closer, is worth more than a couple of wins, compared to the guy who they'd have to plug in as replacement.  They'd likely need to go out and acquire someone else - but relievers can be had for a decent prospect, no more.

It seemed Colome was worth at least 15 loses, though.

[bighat]

I was down in Fort Myers in late February. Alas, all I could do was drive by Lee County Stadium a few times and sigh in frustration. You'd think being in Florida it would be easy for me to go back down there, but it's a 5 hour drive from my location. You can fly direct from Minneapolis on Sun Country in less time.

Yankees, Phillies, and Tigers are all about 2 hours from me.

I've been out to Phoenix a couple times for Cubs Spring Training. Someone mentioned "baseball overload" and it's even more evident there. Most team sites are all within a 20-30 mile radius of each other. You can go to several stadiums easily during a week-long trip. Fun stuff.

[mikelink45]

I would still watch the left side of the IF - who is 3B and who is SS.  We hope Miranda makes the team, Arraez is in the 2B traffic jam but could be at 3B, Urshela was 3B at NY and they only played him intermittently at SS - was there a reason?  They want Torres at 2B which is why they want our one day SS.  There is no one else to challenge for SS now.

Who wins the K/HR battle between Sano and Sanchez for DH?  Who else can catch? 

The Rookie pitchers - who will take charge in this shortened ST?  

So much drama.

[jmlease1]

47 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I would still watch the left side of the IF - who is 3B and who is SS.  We hope Miranda makes the team, Arraez is in the 2B traffic jam but could be at 3B, Urshela was 3B at NY and they only played him intermittently at SS - was there a reason?  They want Torres at 2B which is why they want our one day SS.  There is no one else to challenge for SS now.

Who wins the K/HR battle between Sano and Sanchez for DH?  Who else can catch? 

The Rookie pitchers - who will take charge in this shortened ST?  

So much drama.

Kinda feels like Nick left off SS as something to watch because there's still so much uncertainty left. I mean, if they sign Trevor Story...there's not much to watch.

Kirilloff's health is something to watch for me: if he's healthy, I think his bat is a huge asset (I would strongly consider batting him cleanup behind Buxton) and I think he's good enough in LF to hold it down as long as Sano is still here at 1B. My preference is to have DH be more of an open spot this year, with Arraez getting a solid chunk of time there to keep his bat in the lineup but otherwise rotating Sano, Sanchez, Kirilloff, Miranda and whomever else needs ABs while getting a day off in the field. I'm a big fan of Kirilloff and I think if he's healthy he's going to have a pretty big year at the plate. The projection systems have a reasonable read on him, but he's someone I would bet the over on. I really believe in his talent.

[DocBauer]

#5, how is Arraez moving around and how does he look in the field as well as at the plate after an intense n offseason or work and the reported loss of 11 pounds. 

[mikelink45]

12 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Kinda feels like Nick left off SS as something to watch because there's still so much uncertainty left. I mean, if they sign Trevor Story...there's not much to watch.

Kirilloff's health is something to watch for me: if he's healthy, I think his bat is a huge asset (I would strongly consider batting him cleanup behind Buxton) and I think he's good enough in LF to hold it down as long as Sano is still here at 1B. My preference is to have DH be more of an open spot this year, with Arraez getting a solid chunk of time there to keep his bat in the lineup but otherwise rotating Sano, Sanchez, Kirilloff, Miranda and whomever else needs ABs while getting a day off in the field. I'm a big fan of Kirilloff and I think if he's healthy he's going to have a pretty big year at the plate. The projection systems have a reasonable read on him, but he's someone I would bet the over on. I really believe in his talent.

I hope Kirilloff stays healthy, but he has a history "Kirilloff has a history of issues with that same wrist, which he sprained in April 2019 while playing for Double-A Pensacola. Following his initial return from that injury, he went back on the IL for two and a half weeks in June after the wrist continued to bother him."  according to Byoung Ho Park.   

He missed 2017 for Tommy John and has played 100 games only one season.  He games played since signing - 55, 0, 100, 65, 65, 94, 61.  He has the bat, but we have to monitor his health.   

[AceWrigley]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Urshela was 3B at NY and they only played him intermittently at SS - was there a reason?  They want Torres at 2B which is why they want our one day SS.

The Yankees had seen enough of Torres at shortstop, moved him to 2B and Urshela to SS to finish last season. Manager Aaron Boone even announced Urshela as the starting shortstop beginning spring training. If we keep him, I wouldn't be surprised if he's the starting shortstop opening day for the Twins. A team could do a lot worse than having Urshela at ss.

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

The Yankees had seen enough of Torres at shortstop, moved him to 2B and Urshela to SS to finish last season. Manager Aaron Boone even announced Urshela as the starting shortstop beginning spring training. If we keep him, I wouldn't be surprised if he's the starting shortstop opening day for the Twins. A team could do a lot worse than having Urshela at ss.

The Yankees also listed SS as a position of need so the fact that Urshela was the last man standing in 2021 does not indicate that they wanted to have him there this year - hence the trade. 

[Richmond Dude]

11 hours ago, h2oface said:

It seemed Colome was worth at least 15 loses, though.

I agree, at least in formal statistics.  I think his horrendous performance the first two months of the season, and Baldelli's insistence in keeping him in the closer, demoralized the team and resulted in lesser play for most of the season.  Once Colome was removed as closer, the team performed better and had a better record.