The Twins Have a Yellow Brick Road

[Nash Walker]

It’s been a hectic, wild, *insert synonym for crazy* post-lockout season for the Twins. Even now, there’s plenty of work to do, with the path to a winning offseason rearing its beautiful head. 

There’s more than one route for the Twins, who’ve infused the roster with a new look. If you were taken back or even shocked to see Gary Sánchez and Gio Urshela in Twins gear, you aren’t alone. Sunday night’s trade was wild enough to fill an entire month of offseason hunger, but it came after two more huge trades in subsequent days. 

By trading Josh Donaldson and his contract to New York, the Twins added Sonny Gray’s salary for free. The Twins’ payroll remains at $94 million, even after the trade that sent first-round pick Chase Petty to the Cincinnati Reds. That leaves roughly $30-35 million in spending room for the Twins, with very few viable, high-priced free agents left. 

As soon as the Donaldson deal broke, the attention seemingly shifted immediately to Trevor Story, the former Rockies star shortstop who remains a free agent. There had been speculation pre-lockout that the Twins could take a run at the two-time All-Star, but it was more hope than reality. That sense is shifted. Dan Hayes reported the Twins have indeed been in contact with Story’s camp and that smoke could trail actual fire. 

Story is an excellent player with clear question marks, the reason why the Twins have any chance to sign him. Only Xander Bogaerts has a higher OPS than Story (.880) among shortstops who’ve played at least 300 games since 2018. Story produced 19.9 b-Wins Above Replacement in that span, second to Marcus Semien, now a second baseman. 

Story’s relative down year in 2021 (still above-average), the Coors Field factor, and his defensive inconsistencies are real concerns, but they’re the only reason he’s not signing for $300 million. Since 2018, Story has more bWAR than Francisco Lindor, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, and Carlos Correa. 

The Twins traded two of their three best right-handed hitters, have clean books, and a gaping hole at shortstop. Story fits in a meaningful way. He’s a $30 million player who may sign for closer to $20 million, another attractive proposition for a Twins team that still needs quality starting pitching. 

In the still unlikely scenario where the Twins sign Story, the pressure increases on more additions. Enter Frankie Montas, the electric and highly sought-after right-hander from the Oakland Athletics. Montas isn’t a household name, primarily because of Oakland’s small market and because he hasn’t completely lived up to his stuff. 

Montas lives with an upper-90s set of fastballs, his four-seamer performing better than his sinker. Montas’ best pitch is his splitter, a tumbling offering that kept hitters to a .164 wOBA in 2021. His slider has been devastating in the past, but not as much in 2021. Cutting down on the sinker and upping his slider usage could unlock a new weapon.  

Montas threw 187 innings last year, another important aspect for the Twins. Montas dominated down the stretch, pitching to a 2.17 ERA and a 30% strikeout rate in the second half. 

If the Twins sign Story, they’re signaling that Royce Lewis is not the shortstop of the future, adding to a glut at third base and in the outfield. Austin Martin and José Miranda already project for a corner, and Luis Arraez’s best defensive position is third base. Oh, and did I mention Urshela, the best defender of the group? There’s an influx. 

The path is clear. Story, Montas, a reliever or two, and a depth addition of Michael Pineda is the slam-dunk route for the Twins. This team is one I’ve wanted them to assemble since the offseason commenced. It gives them a chance to compete with an expanded playoff field, and it excites fans for what could be an exhilarating team this summer. 

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[Azviking101]

Love it. Wonder if the Twins could take on Story and some of Andrus' salary to lighten the prospect load for Montas? Would love Trivino as well.

I suspect this would put the Twins over the budget by a bit too much. Not really any use for Andrus' but Oakland would definitley appreciate it and might save Twins a better prospect.

[baul0010]

I like Story.  I think he could have the same impact as DJ LeMahieu has had leaving Colorado.  He's had a great Yankees career.  I also wanted the Twins to sign DJ so maybe I'm over compensating hoping Story could be great too.

[blindeke]

It's possible they sign Story and Royce Lewis still turns into an SS, in which case they trade one of them. Lewis hasn't played in two years and is no sure thing.

[The Mad King]

As Tom Petty said "the waiting is the hardest part." These last two days have killed me. Do something already!!

[RedneckRay]

I’ve been saying this exact thing from day one of the off-season. I don’t care if Montas is more expensive, he’s our guy over Manaea. As for Trevor Story, lock him up long term. Question marks surrounded Lewis before the injury, so I really don’t think he’s our future SS. I don’t know that I would be eager to trade him either though, because it seems like his value is at an all-time low. The other option, and honestly what I think is more likely is that we don’t sign Story, and acquire Montas and Andrus, with Andrus being our SS. You could always send cash in the deal, and skip out on Andrus all together. There’s lots of different routes the Twins could take, but judging by the rest of the off-season I think they still have a few tricks up their sleeve.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

In the still unlikely scenario where the Twins sign Story...

Is that scenario still unlikely? Yeah, if you were betting who would sign Story between the Twins and the field, you'd take the field, but between budget, need at the position, and competitive position the Twins seem to be a pretty clean fit for him at the moment.

[High heat]

Still wondering if a Elvis Andrus and Frankie Montas deal can’t be struck with Oakland.  Take on both deals and give up a pitching prospect and a guy liKe Larnach.  Gives you a short term answer at SS and a good SP fro 2 yrs.  Take on some salary but would still be under budget.

[Doctor Gast]

IMO we a very good shot at Story it might take awhile to wait it out but it'd be worth it. A's need a 2B and 3B if they trade Chapman which is very likely. That'd make Arraez very attractive for them and would open a door to get Montas without painfully giving up a lot of valuable prospects.

[DocBauer]

Playing the amateur GM game, this not the way I would have approached the re-tooling of our beloved Twins. But nobody has offered me the job, or sought my advice, lol. So let's look at this yellow brick road idea.

I'm not as big a fan or Story as a lot of others. Despite various reports I've read that his bat comes around later on road trips as he becomes acclimated to being away from Coors Field, I'm still worried about his huge career splits. Now, NOT having half his games in the thin air might alow him to further adjust on a regular, daily basis, and he might be just fine. That's the hope, right? Even then, I doubt we'd see the same kind of numbers/production he had in Colorado. Doesn't mean he wouldn't still be a solid hitter with said adjustments, just probably not the producer he was previously. He fits a HUGE need, the $ is there to make it happen, and he'd be the best every day SS the Twins have had since...you pick the player and year. It's been a while. And his signing in no way is an indictment of Lewis's potential or future. The kid needs to PLAY. What's the worst case scenario? A year, year and a half from now the Twins have a great young talent ready and can stick at SS or move around? That's a GREAT problem to have!

I hope a Story happens, and I hope it happens soon so we can continue to put this team together. 

I DON'T like moving both Garver AND Rortvedt at all, even though I like Jeffers and think he will do just fine. I'm not as down on Sanchez as some. While not great defensively, he can offer experience and leadership to Jeffers and the team as a whole. He has undeniable power, and has consistently kept his OB above .300 even with a declining BA. A new start, new opportunity, could his bat rebound? Even hitting in the .220-.230 range with power could provide value. And while the Twins like to rest their catchers, I bet he only starts about a third of the games. But I'd sure like to see someone else brought on board in some capacity for depth. The Twins have a handful of guys who have at least SOME promise, but we're lacking anything close to ready depth at this point.

I kinda like Urshela as a depth/insurance piece at 3B and SS with at least a little experience and possibility at 2B and 1B. The glove is at least OK. It appears the bat is at least OK, and he has power. He could provide help, especially if Arraez is moved in a deal.

I like getting Gray. Period!

The LAST THING I want the FO to do is trade off a slew of top prospects for a short term gain. But between a deal with Oakland, maybe Miami, or even re-visiting another deal with Cincinnati, adding a 2nd quality arm really puts this team in a good place. But again, the last they need to do is mortgage the future for 2022.

Some have viewed the Yankees trade as a cost cutting move. Well, yea, it is. But that cost cutting move frees the team to make a Story deal. It allows them to maybe extend whatever pitcher they still add. They might even tack on a quality RH bullpen arm to really set things up there. (Pun slightly intended). And there is additional $ potentially coming off the books in the next year or so for greater flexibility.

There is a real method to the madness with the FO I can clearly see. But it might just blow up in their face if they don't make the Story signing a reality.

 

[dxpavelka]

As we get closer to the season Story signing a 1-3 year contract becomes more likely.  That allows for Lewis to still take over at SS in the not to distant future.

[Whitey333]

If the Twins don't add anymore players of significance then it's obvious we are in an owner mandated salary dump. .I fully expect 2-3 more significant moves.  Wouldn't it make sense to do them soon while spring training is on?

[TopGunn#22]

Amen Nash !  This is what I've been pushing for ALL off season.  Doc Bauer pretty much laid out every point I would have.  In my mind, you make the deal with the Yankees to make a deal with Oakland (or Miami or the Reds) to get that other stud SP to head the rotation with Gray so that your "youngen's" have some leadership and MUCH less pressure.  To tie this all together, you MUST sign Story or Correa (and it's clear Story is the guy).  Can they pull this all together ?  In theory it's a great plan, but requires some heavy lifting.  I've been guilty of being pretty down on this FO for quite awhile.  Last year's failures were in some respects unforgiveable.  The White Sox FO just outworked and out hustled ours.  The Sonny Gray trade was a master stroke and built some of my lost trust back up.  I think many here on TD are selling Urshela short and Sanchez is a potential 30-HR catcher who's a mystery wrapped in an enigma.  But for the first time in a long time, I can actually reason through a possible "PLAN" this FO has and it's interesting with all kinds of potential.  Does Buxton need to stay healthy??  Darn right he does.  Do the young pitchers need to flash some talent ?  Darn right they do.  But if the FO can finish this race with a strong kick and deliver us Trevor Story and either Montas, Castillo or Sixto Sanchez/Max Meyer I will salute them for a great effort.  

[chpettit19]

11 hours ago, High heat said:

Still wondering if a Elvis Andrus and Frankie Montas deal can’t be struck with Oakland.  Take on both deals and give up a pitching prospect and a guy liKe Larnach.  Gives you a short term answer at SS and a good SP fro 2 yrs.  Take on some salary but would still be under budget.

If I'm taking on that Andrus deal I'm either still signing Story to be my SS to ensure Andrus doesn't hit the 550 PA mark to trigger changing his 2023 option to a player option or I'm giving up no more than 1 prospect in the trade. Paying Andrus $15M in 2023 is far worse than having kept Donaldson and paying him 20+ in 23. I want nothing to do with Elvis Andrus as the starting SS for the Twins in 2022. Nothing at all.

[Otaknam]

Another trade to move Sanchez or Sano MUST be in the works. Sanchez is a redundant piece on this roster unless Sano or Sanchez is traded. At least there are twice as many teams that need a DH. 

[In My La Z boy]

I'll be surprised if we sign Story. The Donaldson deal was a salary dump. I do think we work with Oakland and we do have a plan. Montas is the last big name they have to package Andrus with to dump his contract - we will oblige, and in return there goes Urshela and a couple non-40 man quality prospects. I'm guessing they'd sign Story if he'd take the 2 years 50M left on the Donaldson contract? Maybe he will if we are the best AV offer and commit to let him play short for 2 years. I don't think we'll see another large 4 year commitment to Story, or anyone right now after shedding Donaldson's contract. 

[tony&rodney]

11 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

I don't think we'll see another large 4 year commitment to Story, or anyone right now after shedding Donaldson's contract. 

Never say never (you did not), but the past and current practices of this franchise make any free agent signing unlikely that requires years and money. Subsequently, a free agent and their agents would have qualms about the Twins unless all of their demands were met. The Twins have dug a hole for themselves by eschewing free agents. Still, I have always maintained that there is no obligation by anyone to doggedly repeat their bad habits of the past. A positive future relies on current actions which hopefully include a rejection or just release  of poor practice in your past.

[MGM4706]

Enough of hoping for Lewis. Even when healthy he struggles hitting curveballs and hasn't even seen the good ones yet. Same as Jeffers. He can't hit curves either. And we have strikeout guys at the corners!! Plus who is playing left? Larnach is dreadful in the field and the last 6 weeks was lost at the plate. Not sure where the runs are coming from. And with the pitching staff we will need 6-7 runs a game to be competitive! Good Luck with that 

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

In my mind, you make the deal with the Yankees to make a deal with Oakland (or Miami or the Reds) to get that other stud SP to head the rotation with Gray so that your "youngen's" have some leadership and MUCH less pressure. 

No one has been able to explain why we had to trade Donaldson in order to sign or make a deal for a starting pitcher. I just don't get this thinking. Can somebody help me see what I'm not seeing here?

I mean, if anything, the deal with the Yankees makes a trade for a stud SP less likely. Garver or Rortvedt would have had some real value in that kind of trade. As reclamation projects, Urshela and Sanchez currently have zero trade value.

[LA VIkes Fan]

3 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Amen Nash !  This is what I've been pushing for ALL off season.  Doc Bauer pretty much laid out every point I would have.  In my mind, you make the deal with the Yankees to make a deal with Oakland (or Miami or the Reds) to get that other stud SP to head the rotation with Gray so that your "youngen's" have some leadership and MUCH less pressure.  To tie this all together, you MUST sign Story or Correa (and it's clear Story is the guy).  Can they pull this all together ?  In theory it's a great plan, but requires some heavy lifting.  I've been guilty of being pretty down on this FO for quite awhile.  Last year's failures were in some respects unforgiveable.  The White Sox FO just outworked and out hustled ours.  The Sonny Gray trade was a master stroke and built some of my lost trust back up.  I think many here on TD are selling Urshela short and Sanchez is a potential 30-HR catcher who's a mystery wrapped in an enigma.  But for the first time in a long time, I can actually reason through a possible "PLAN" this FO has and it's interesting with all kinds of potential.  Does Buxton need to stay healthy??  Darn right he does.  Do the young pitchers need to flash some talent ?  Darn right they do.  But if the FO can finish this race with a strong kick and deliver us Trevor Story and either Montas, Castillo or Sixto Sanchez/Max Meyer I will salute them for a great effort.  

I agree and would add in Castillo or Mahle from the Reds to the list of pitchers who could make this all come together. Sign Story, trade for one more starter, trade for Lou Trevino from the As, and find one more RP. We fill LF internally and now you have a team.  

[ashbury]

I keep checking MLBTR hourly, on the assumption that something big must be on the verge of happening.

After acquiring Gray and then the drama of the Donaldson trade, it feels like having bought a new set of performance tires and then taking the car in for a tune up, only to learn now that the engine is sitting on a hoist and the mechanic is telling you they are "waiting on parts".  Why did you shell out for those expensive tires, again?

Sign Story, and/or swing a favorable trade that is possible only by taking on new salary, and my outlook for the team brightens.

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

No one has been able to explain why we had to trade Donaldson in order to sign or make a deal for a starting pitcher. I just don't get this thinking. Can somebody help me see what I'm not seeing here?

I mean, if anything, the deal with the Yankees makes a trade for a stud SP less likely. Garver or Rortvedt would have had some real value in that kind of trade. As reclamation projects, Urshela and Sanchez currently have zero trade value.

In my opinion

The Twins did not have to "trade Donaldson in order to sign or make a deal for a starting pitcher". 

It has been speculated by some that the money available now after trading Donaldson could be spent on starting pitching but one doesn't have anything to do with the other.

I simply believe that the Twins will have a hard time spending the Donaldson money on starting pitching because it simply isn't available.

The A's and Reds are the only sellers and the arms they have to trade (THAT ARE WORTH SOMETHING) are not expensive from a money standpoint... they are expensive from a prospect standpoint because they are probably fielding a lot of calls right now and that will drive the prospect price upward.  

The Twins could have kept Donaldson and still added a Montas, Castillo or Manaea to payroll along with the addition of Sonny Gray and been within what we typically shell out yearly. It'll be the prospect price and all the other clubs trying to acquire pitching that is prohibitive to bringing any of these guys to Minnesota.      

In my opinion... the Donaldson trade was a simple value trade and that's it.

I believe that the Twins have been probably trying to off load that Donaldson contract for quite some time and found no takers because of the dollars left on his contract, his age, health and performance... yes performance relative to what he was paid for that performance. Some of us fans are upset because we are losing a good player but the reality is... I don't believe any of the 30 front offices wanted him. 

I believe that it took a player or players (Kiner-Falefa and Rortvedt) that the Yankees really wanted to be added to the deal for the Yankees to agree to take Donaldson's contract.  

Until these pieces came together... the Twins were probably getting nothing but crickets trying to move Donaldson and those crickets should help us all understand why the Twins moved him at this odd timing.  It was because someone finally said OK... and the Twins took the deal before it became a no and the Twins were probably not planning on that happening. Surprise! 

It'll be hard to spend that Donaldson cash on pitching but they could spend it on Story directly and fill what is still a hole even with the addition of Urshela.

Urshela, Arraez and Miranda are already in house to play some 3B and they can still add a Montas, Castillo or Manaea even if they spend all that money on Story.    

Then the trade becomes Donaldson for Story and I will personally take that deal... not that what I'd like to see matters. ?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Minny505]

17 hours ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

In the still unlikely scenario where the Twins sign Story...

Is that scenario still unlikely? Yeah, if you were betting who would sign Story between the Twins and the field, you'd take the field, but between budget, need at the position, and competitive position the Twins seem to be a pretty clean fit for him at the moment.

Yankees and Phillies seem out due to payroll now. Astros seem locked on Correa reunion. Sentiment regarding the Angels is that they are not spending big on anything right now, and if they do, it will be pitching. 

That leaves a Red Sox team that likely views Story as more of a luxury than a necessity. Seems the Twins are in the driver's seat. Story deserves a better contract than Marcus Semien and may not even ink a Javier Baez-level deal.

Twins could look like geniuses for waiting out the SS market when this is all finished.

[LA VIkes Fan]

I just saw that the Reds (!) traded Amir Garrett for Mike Minor. The trade makes no sense from the Reds standpoint; they let Wade Miley go on waivers and he's better than Mike Minor with almost exactly the same salary for the same term. Amir Garrett actually has some value so why treating him for a guy is worse than someone you could have simply kept? I have this sneaking suspicion: this is the front and of a trade with the Twins. We are going to get my Minor and somebody else, hopefully a starter but may be a reliever, in return for prospects. The Royals would never trade Minor to us directly since were in the same division. Not sure if I like this idea or not, but I think this may be in the cards.

[LastOnePicked]

50 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Then the trade becomes Donaldson for Story and I will personally take that deal... not that what I'd like to see matters. ?

 

First, a really thoughtful response and I appreciate it.

However, I don't agree. Story is a free agent, and could have been signed without giving away Donaldson. There is no trade involved for Story, period. I wish this false argument would end.

Also, if the FO has decided that they were serious about contending again, a left-side infield of Donaldson/Miranda, Story/Kiner-Falefa is far, far better than Miranda/Urshela and Story. Plus, having Rortvedt as a backup would have been far better than turning over our "pitching pipeline" to Jeffers and a player notorious for being a total defensive and pitch-framing liability. Opposing teams are going to run wild on the bases against us, and young pitchers are going to watch their pitch counts inflate.

We lost depth, flexibility and talent. This was not a "value trade" - this was a "lost-value trade." And there's little reason to believe that it was done for any other reason than this FO was embarrassed by 2021 and wanted to turn the page on a big-splash FA contract they signed two years ago. They soothed their bruised egos, and made the team's chances worse as a result.

Perhaps they can make wiser choices from here. We'll see. But they just dug some new holes in a roster already full of them.

[Riverbrian]

4 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

First, a really thoughtful response and I appreciate it.

However, I don't agree. Story is a free agent, and could have been signed without giving away Donaldson. There is no trade involved for Story, period. I wish this false argument would end.

Also, if the FO has decided that they were serious about contending again, a left-side infield of Donaldson/Miranda, Story/Kiner-Falefa is far, far better than Miranda/Urshela and Story. Plus, having Rortvedt as a backup would have been far better than turning over our "pitching pipeline" to Jeffers and a player notorious for being a total defensive and pitch-framing liability. Opposing teams are going to run wild on the bases against us, and young pitchers are going to watch their pitch counts inflate.

We lost depth, flexibility and talent. This was not a "value trade" - this was a "lost-value trade." And there's little reason to believe that it was done for any other reason than this FO was embarrassed by 2021 and wanted to turn the page on a big-splash FA contract they signed two years ago. They soothed their bruised egos, and made the team's chances worse as a result.

Perhaps they can make wiser choices from here. We'll see. But they just dug some new holes in a roster already full of them.

When it comes to pleasing both of us at the same time. It appears obvious that front offices will have a difficult time accomplishing that. ?

 

[Riverbrian]

16 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

 

However, I don't agree. Story is a free agent, and could have been signed without giving away Donaldson. There is no trade involved for Story, period. I wish this false argument would end.

 

The Twins didn't give away Donaldson.

Essentially, the Twins paid the Yankees to take Donaldson. 

The Twins had to give up value to make up for the negative value attached to Josh.

We paid with our starting SS.

A steep price that should show how hard it was to get out from under the contract and how badly the Twins wanted out of that contract.    

 

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

A steep price that should show how hard it was to get out from under the contract and how badly the Twins wanted out of that contract.

I'm getting to the point where I can just move on, but here's my last take on this (horrible-terrible-no-good-awful) trade:

Why?

Why did the Twins want out of this contract so badly, and why did this choose this route? Donaldson earned his salary last year. He was a solid 3B and a solid bat. There's been no offseason news that he's been hurt. Seems like there was a decent chance he earns his salary this year, too. And if he did play well, he very likely could have been flipped before the deadline to an NL team looking for a part-time 3B/DH. Not much, but maybe a fringe prospect.

If he got injured, Miranda and Arraez takes over the hot corner. No problem. 

Plus, the guys they paid NY to take Donaldson could have been used as sweeteners in a SP trade deal with the A's.

Plus, Story would have seen that that this team respects and sticks with their big FA signings, making him perhaps more likely to sign here.

Could we not afford Donaldson? We're under the payroll we've had for the last three years, with very few upcoming obligations. And we signed virtually no free agents in the offseason.

Is it that Donaldson was toxic to MN? If so, how? I've never heard that he was abusive, sexist, racist or cruel. I've only heard that he was intense and occasionally mouthy. This team desperately needs some intensity, and "toxic" should be made of sterner stuff.

In closing, here was a solid, intense and powerful 3B! When comes such another??

(yes, I am trying to whip up the crowd into a fit of rage against the FO, Julius Caesar style. Is it working?)

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

I'm getting to the point where I can just move on, but here's my last take on this (horrible-terrible-no-good-awful) trade:

Why?

Why did the Twins want out of this contract so badly, and why did this choose this route? Donaldson earned his salary last year. He was a solid 3B and a solid bat. There's been no offseason news that he's been hurt. Seems like there was a decent chance he earns his salary this year, too. And if he did play well, he very likely could have been flipped before the deadline to an NL team looking for a part-time 3B/DH. Not much, but maybe a fringe prospect.

If he got injured, Miranda and Arraez takes over the hot corner. No problem. 

Plus, the guys they paid NY to take Donaldson could have been used as sweeteners in a SP trade deal with the A's.

Plus, Story would have seen that that this team respects and sticks with their big FA signings, making him perhaps more likely to sign here.

Could we not afford Donaldson? We're under the payroll we've had for the last three years, with very few upcoming obligations. And we signed virtually no free agents in the offseason.

Is it that Donaldson was toxic to MN? If so, how? I've never heard that he was abusive, sexist, racist or cruel. I've only heard that he was intense and occasionally mouthy. This team desperately needs some intensity, and "toxic" should be made of sterner stuff.

In closing, here was a solid, intense and powerful 3B! When comes such another??

(yes, I am trying to whip up the crowd into a fit of rage against the FO, Julius Caesar style. Is it working?)

LOL... I think the crowd was already whipped up based on the glow of the torches behind you. 

No... Josh Donaldson could not be easily flipped at the deadline. 

There are very few teams that can take on the 33 million plus that he will still be due. Of the teams that can just drop 33 million on Donaldson... none of them will and that's if Josh has a good year as you suggest he will. The options are not there at that price point. 

However, If Josh has a rough year due to age, health, or punching an umpire. Moving Donaldson at the deadline or in the off season will go from trying to pick a lock with your teeth -- to trying to pick a lock with your teeth and but now you have no teeth.