Projecting the 2022 Twins Opening Day Roster: Version 2.0

[dex8425]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

This looks like a fifth place team - let's hope the next additions are more exciting that the Twins fire sale.  After all the movements the SP has added a #3 (#2 at best) and a #5 (Bundy) and a SS that the Yankees wanted to have play 3B.  2B is solid - maybe the only IF place that is.  I would not want to create a fielding and batting lineup from this.  And Jeffers really has to improve a lot.  Any injury to him and we take another step back. 

You're definitely selling Gray short. He was a 3.3 WAR pitcher last year, which was actually higher than Berrios. He might not be better than Berrios, but he's closer to Berrios than a #3.  But I agree with the rest. 

 

[mikelink45]

9 minutes ago, dex8425 said:

You're definitely selling Gray short. He was a 3.3 WAR pitcher last year, which was actually higher than Berrios. He might not be better than Berrios, but he's closer to Berrios than a #3.  But I agree with the rest. 

 

Let's look at Gray's career - not just last year.  Going back from last year his WAR totals have been: 

0.8

5.9

0.2

1.1

1.6

-0.3

5.4

3.3

So which do we get?  What do we choose for comparison? 

Berrios was 3.2 last year - a virtual tie, but going back:

3.2

0.7

3.1

3.4

3.1 

1.9

For consistency - Berrios wins. 

 

 

[mikelink45]

The cubs took another reliever off the market. 

March 14, Ottavino, Hand, were signed

March 15 Hembree and Familia are signed

Our bullpen is fixed - right? 

[Major League Ready]

I would not use permanent ink to write that lineup.  There will be a couple additions.

[tony&rodney]

I think there will be changes. By putting it out there and asking .... current roster loses 100 games, which is not a #1 draft pick anymore.

[Mike Sixel]

51 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I think there will be changes. By putting it out there and asking .... current roster loses 100 games, which is not a #1 draft pick anymore.

100 games? No shot. They are projected for 80 wins, for example, on Fangraphs. I don't love this roster, but it isn't a dumpster fire. 

[LastOnePicked]

When fans were asking the FO to address the question marks on the left side of the infield, we probably should have clarified that we didn't want those question marks to get bigger.

A week's worth of transactions only made more roster holes, and barely moved the needle on the mound.. Woof. Not exactly inspiring fear in the competition at this point.

I keep hearing more moves are coming, but we'll see. Rotation, 3B, C and SS are are very thin, and the season draws near.

[Nashvilletwin]

Other than Gray, how's is that lineup better than what we had a week ago? Three days ago?  It’s not.

Sanchez may be a fine person, but he is strictly a reclamation project as a major league catcher.  If he’s on the roster post the trade deadline, let alone opening day, it’s a mistake. Other than owning a catcher’s mitt, we should expect that he will bring no value to this organization. 

Here is about the best we can hope for right now as our starting lineup:

Catcher: Jeffers, 1B: Kiriloff, 2B: Polanco, SS: Story, 3B: Urshela, RF: Kepler, CF: Buxton, LF: Larnach or Rooker (whoever has the better spring), DH: Sano. Our four bench players are: Arraez, Sanchez, Gordon, and Miranda. SPs: Gray, Pineda, Bundy, Ober and Ryan. Dobnak is in the pen with the seven best of the others.

I actually like the Urshela/Miranda combination at 3B with Story at SS. With Jeffers behind the dish, this lineup really only has a defensive deficiency in LF.  The starting staff could be about average. If the pen steps up, there may be enough offense to win a few games more than they lose.  

 

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

When fans were asking the FO to address the question marks on the left side of the infield, we probably should have clarified that we didn't want those question marks to get bigger.

A week's worth of transactions only made more roster holes, and barely moved the needle on the mound.. Woof. Not exactly inspiring fear in the competition at this point.

I keep hearing more moves are coming, but we'll see. Rotation, 3B, C and SS are are very thin, and the season draws near.

They replaced a negative WAR pitcher (whomever took slot 5) with a guy that should get 2.5-4 WAR. That's not barely moved the needle (though yes, they need one more good SP).

3B is no less bare than it was. If anything, Urshela is more likely to be healthy than Donaldson. C is not good, agreed. And, SS? Not even addressed.

*Unless Urshela is playing SS, then I got no idea how SS is defensively.

[HerbieFan]

Nash Walker on Locked On Twins podcast had the path to complete this roster....trade for Montas and sign Story

[USAFChief]

59 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

100 games? No shot. They are projected for 80 wins, for example, on Fangraphs. I don't love this roster, but it isn't a dumpster fire. 

Fangraphs...Fangraphs is silly, as usual.

 

No shot this team as constructed wins 80 games. 

[LastOnePicked]

56 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If anything, Urshela is more likely to be healthy than Donaldson.

I don't get this argument I'm hearing. Urshela played 116 games last year. Donaldson played 135. Urshela had hamstring problems and other injuries last year as well. The Yankees seemed to think Donaldson was a clear defensive upgrade, and they seem a little better at making these calls than our FO. They're also competing in a tougher division.

As for pitching, a 3-4 WAR upgrade is good, but doesn't mean much for a last place team that will not have their two best starting pitchers from 2021.

[stringer bell]

Unless someone who played part of the season with the Twins (Larnach, Rooker, Celestino) seizes left field, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sanchez at DH, with Sanó at first and Kirilloff in left field. Arraez could also get some starts in left. To me, Urshela is the shortstop until someone is added. This does give Miranda a spot. If Sanchez is DHing more than occasionally, they probably need a third catcher. Ugh, what a mess. 

[se7799]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Let's look at Gray's career - not just last year.  Going back from last year his WAR totals have been: 

0.8

5.9

0.2

1.1

1.6

-0.3

5.4

3.3

So which do we get?  What do we choose for comparison? 

Berrios was 3.2 last year - a virtual tie, but going back:

3.2

0.7

3.1

3.4

3.1 

1.9

For consistency - Berrios wins. 

 

 

Berrios does win the consistency.  However Gray has 3 seasons higher than Jose's best, according to these numbers though.

[Stew]

I agree with heiny. Almost everybody  on this site has all said we need to get out from under Donaldson's  contract . Now that we have it's a fire sale. I think it's a good thing that we have spent about 100 mill. It leaves us enough to add one of the Oakland pitchers in a trade. Maybe paneda too. We still could get story. And find another catcher for depth. 

[tony&rodney]

I'm curious why the San Diego Padres are able to spend so much more on their roster than the Twins. Seems like $30-40 million more might sound about right, but they are approaching 2X. This is partially relevant to how the roster is constructed.

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Fangraphs...Fangraphs is silly, as usual.

 

No shot this team as constructed wins 80 games. 

How about 60, which was what I responded to? Ridiculous. 

[USAFChief]

20 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

How about 60, which was what I responded to? Ridiculous. 

Fangraphs' 80 is what you cited.

[Fatbat]

Twins are a young team with a mass of AAA talent.  We just need 2-3 of them to be AAAA talent by June…. I know…. Thats too much to count on to become a playoff team.  

[miracleb]

After adding Pineda, and after adding Story, this team is still a 4 place team....with this pitching staff.  Swap in Gray for Berrios.....that part seems pretty even.  Swap in Story and Urshela bats for Donaldson.....that seems pretty even.  We appear to be the same as last year (at best.)  I guess we can still bank on the rest of the division getting worse.....

[mikelink45]

12 hours ago, se7799 said:

Berrios does win the consistency.  However Gray has 3 seasons higher than Jose's best, according to these numbers though.

I like consistency

[Whitey333]

Gray is a great addition since it didn't really cost us much.  No a number one 18 year old high school pitcher is not a great asset.  He could be good in the future.  But very few of them ever make it.  Now when you look at Gray at the top of the rotation it's fine.  But the others lined up behind him on a major league starting staff is a joke and a potential disaster.  The roster as currently constructed looks no better than a 5th place team.  Let's hope additions are made SOON!

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, miracleb said:

After adding Pineda, and after adding Story, this team is still a 4 place team....with this pitching staff.  Swap in Gray for Berrios.....that part seems pretty even.  Swap in Story and Urshela bats for Donaldson.....that seems pretty even.  We appear to be the same as last year (at best.)  I guess we can still bank on the rest of the division getting worse.....

Not saying that I agree with this, but another way of looking at it would be to take the 73 win team, double Buxton's WAR (play 120 games instead of 60) and figure that the team won't trade their top starter and their top hitter at the deadline and see at least an 80-win team. 

[dex8425]

16 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Let's look at Gray's career - not just last year.  Going back from last year his WAR totals have been: 

0.8

5.9

0.2

1.1

1.6

-0.3

5.4

3.3

So which do we get?  What do we choose for comparison? 

Berrios was 3.2 last year - a virtual tie, but going back:

3.2

0.7

3.1

3.4

3.1 

1.9

For consistency - Berrios wins. 

 

 

You proved my point- a guy with two 5 WAR seasons and 5.3 and 3.3 his last two seasons is not a #3.  You're talking about Jack Flaherty's or Hyun Jin Ryu's best two seasons there, for reference. 

[mikelink45]

18 minutes ago, dex8425 said:

You proved my point- a guy with two 5 WAR seasons and 5.3 and 3.3 his last two seasons is not a #3.  You're talking about Jack Flaherty's or Hyun Jin Ryu's best two seasons there, for reference. 

I am glad I proved your point, it proves we all look at stats and have our own takes.  I do hope he is great for us and I do not argue that he is good pitcher, just not as good as I see projected. 

[USAFChief]

36 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Not saying that I agree with this, but another way of looking at it would be to take the 73 win team, double Buxton's WAR (play 120 games instead of 60) and figure that the team won't trade their top starter and their top hitter at the deadline and see at least an 80-win team. 

Except the top hitter is missing the entire season rather than just the second half.

[Mike Sixel]

10 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Fangraphs' 80 is what you cited.

How about sixty, which I was rebutting?

[USAFChief]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

How about sixty, which I was rebutting?

As currently constructed, I'll take closer to 60 than 80.

This has a chance to be the worst team in MLB. Certainly a real chance to have the worst pitching, and now we've lost 2 of the team's better hitters and gotten worse defensively.

[dex8425]

50 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I am glad I proved your point, it proves we all look at stats and have our own takes.  I do hope he is great for us and I do not argue that he is good pitcher, just not as good as I see projected. 

I think we both would feel better if the Twins also got Montas! I see him as more of a #1 for 2022 than Gray. Montas, Gray, Ryan is a fine rotation for a playoff series. Definitely not Scherzer, DeGrom, Bassitt though.

[cHawk]

22 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

This looks like a fifth place team - let's hope the next additions are more exciting that the Twins fire sale.  After all the movements the SP has added a #3 (#2 at best) and a #5 (Bundy) and a SS that the Yankees wanted to have play 3B.  2B is solid - maybe the only IF place that is.  I would not want to create a fielding and batting lineup from this.  And Jeffers really has to improve a lot.  Any injury to him and we take another step back. 

Gray is better than you think.