Projecting the 2022 Twins Opening Day Roster: Version 2.0

[Cody Christie]

After a whirlwind weekend, the Twins roster underwent a dramatic transformation. Here’s what the Opening Day roster can look like if the team doesn’t make other moves.

Catchers (2): Ryan Jeffers, Gary Sanchez
The Twins are turning the starting catcher role over to Jeffers by trading Mitch Garver. On the surface, this makes sense because Jeffers is significantly younger than Garver and has more years of team control. Minnesota hopes Jeffers takes the next step offensively after a down year in 2021. It sounds like Sanchez will serve as the backup catcher and designated hitter. SABR’s SDI ranked him as the AL’s worst defensive catcher last season, so he must get minimal time behind the plate. Behind these two players, the team’s catching depth has thinned so that the team may add a veteran backup option.   

Infielders (6): Luis Arraez, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano, Nick Gordon, Brent Rooker, Gio Urshela
It looked like Minnesota had their shortstop solution when the team acquired Isiah Kiner-Falefa, but his Twins tenure was short-lived. Now, there is no clear shortstop option on the roster. Polanco and Urshela can fill in, but both fit better at other defensive positions. Sano is likely in a contract year, so it will be interesting to see how the Twins use him this season. He and Sanchez have a similar offensive skillset, so both will need time at DH. Arraez, Gordon, and Rooker provide different skills off the bench, but there is an apparent lack of shortstop depth. 

Outfielders (4): Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach
Minnesota’s outfield is one of its strengths, so the team will need to rotate through the different options. Like at catcher, the team may trade from a position of strength to add to a position of need. Kirilloff will likely get time at first base since he is the team’s strongest defender at that position. Gilberto Celestino put up some strong numbers at Triple-A, so he adds some depth in the outfield if the team needs a younger option.  

Rotation (5): Sonny Gray,  Dylan Bundy, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Randy Dobnak
Adding Gray to the top of the rotation is a huge upgrade over the initial roster projection. He immediately adds a front of the rotation starter under team control for multiple years. Minnesota has room to add at least one more veteran arm with young pitchers taking multiple rotation spots. Does a reunion with Michael Pineda make sense? Or will the team dip into the trade market again? Expectations are high for Ryan and Ober, but neither has pitched more than 125 innings in one professional season. Dobnak had a terrible 2021 season, but the Twins had faith in him last winter, so he will need to earn the fifth starter role. 

Bullpen (9): Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Jorge Alcala, Caleb Thielbar, Ralph Garza Jr., Cody Stashak, Jovani Moran, Jharel Cotton, Lewis Thorpe
Minnesota’s bullpen improved in the second half last season, and the core of that group remains the same. Rogers is returning from a finger injury, so it will be critical to return to his late-inning role. Duffey struggled last season, but the Twins hope he can return to his 2019-20 form. Alcala and Thielbar will also get the opportunity to get the team out of some tricky situations. Moran has a dominant change-up that should allow him to transition to the big-league weapon with a chance to have an even more critical role in the future. Thorpe is out of options, and there doesn’t seem to be room for him in the rotation. Can he stick with the big-league club as a long-reliever? 

What changes will happen to the team’s roster before Opening Day? Do you feel like the Twins have improved this winter? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[IndianaTwin]

For those of us not keeping score at home, what does that leave us in St. Paul? 

And forgive me for not having this bookmarked, but is there still a Google doc somewhere that has salaries? Where does this set of folks leave us? 

 

[GeorgiaBaller]

Don't fall into the Twins rhetoric. 

Don't write off past media guide points.

The twins have two outfielders that are excellent.  If (big if) they stayed healthy all season, Buck and Kepler could shift enough to cover part of left and make up for the HUGE hole there.  Kirilloff and Larnach are bat assets---maybe 1B-- not outfielders.  Neither is quick or flexible enough to play OF in the majors.  Nick Gordon starting from scratch is a much better possibility for left because he is so much more athletic.   

There is no depth!  We saw it all last year---if either Buck or Kepler are hurt, there are no backups ---they are all below WAR in the field.  Not only do you not have trade chips, you are razor thin.  

[roger]

Couple questions and a comment, Cody.

First, is the rule still in effect that they have to keep 13 position players on the 26 man roster?  If so, they can only keep 13 pitchers.

Second, I know Rooker played first base when in the minors, but has he player there at all for the Twins?  If any of these outfielders see time at first I would guess it would be Kirilloff, not Rooker.

I was a huge fan of Thorpe since that wonderful winter down under when I think he was still 16 years old.  Did he pitch at all last year?  If so, it was very little.  Although he could surprise the Twins and have a great spring, I just don't see it.  Whether he is released, DFA'd and eventually in St. Paul, or included in a minor trade remains to be seen.  I just don't see him being part of this Twins pitching staff.

 

[mikelink45]

This looks like a fifth place team - let's hope the next additions are more exciting that the Twins fire sale.  After all the movements the SP has added a #3 (#2 at best) and a #5 (Bundy) and a SS that the Yankees wanted to have play 3B.  2B is solid - maybe the only IF place that is.  I would not want to create a fielding and batting lineup from this.  And Jeffers really has to improve a lot.  Any injury to him and we take another step back. 

[4twinsJA]

Good projection for roster today, but hopefully FO not done yet. May yet acquire another SP, SS, backup catcher, relief pitcher. 

[LewFordLives]

Players are reporting to Ft Myers and this roster has more question marks than it did at the beginning of the offseason. What a mess.

[Heiny]

No way they are done yet.  I still see Story at ss,  Urshela/Miranda at 3b.  They will trade for another front end SP, possibly sign another FA SP, like Pineda, or Greinke.  I also see another FA catcher.  The money is there to spend, and if they don't spend it they will be shooting themselves in the foot.  With this team, it is my opinion that they will contend for the division.  If they stand pat, they will probably be able to count fans in the stands on one hand.  I just hope they don't completely deplete our top prospect list.

[LewFordLives]

Just looking at the remaining free agents, there's not much left at C and SS. Stephen Vogt is still listed as available. Can't hit, but supposedly his defense has improved.  At SS it's Story or bust, which I'm sure his agent is well aware of. (I'm not including Correia.)

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

For those of us not keeping score at home, what does that leave us in St. Paul? 

And forgive me for not having this bookmarked, but is there still a Google doc somewhere that has salaries? Where does this set of folks leave us? 

 

Roster Resource on Fangraphs has all your answers. 

[TwinsDr2021]

So as of now Plan B for the Offense/Defense is Lewis, Miranda and Celestino, and then a bunch of AAA players that need to be added to the 40, can't see anything going wrong with this plan.

This FO has so messed up the 40 man construction it is a wonder they still have a job.

The 40 man sits at 39 right now, so even if they sign Story, that means Rooker moves to part of the back up plan, and for any pitcher they get they have to cut or trade pitchers off the 40. Hey but they open up two spots when the season starts for Enlow and Maeda. ?

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

So as of now Plan B for the Offense/Defense is Lewis, Miranda and Celestino, and then a bunch of AAA players that need to be added to the 40, can't see anything going wrong with this plan.

This FO has so messed up the 40 man construction it is a wonder they still have a job.

The 40 man sits at 39 right now, so even if they sign Story, that means Rooker moves to part of the back up plan, and for any pitcher they get they have to cut or trade pitchers off the 40. Hey but they open up two spots when the season starts for Enlow and Maeda. ?

Isn't the plan B for nearly every team AAA players? Outside the super wealthy teams, that seems like every team's plan B.

I'd be thrilled if Rooker is in Plan B, rather than A. I could be wrong about him, but I just don't seem him playing decent D anywhere. And they have plenty of DH options....

[chpettit19]

11 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

So as of now Plan B for the Offense/Defense is Lewis, Miranda and Celestino, and then a bunch of AAA players that need to be added to the 40, can't see anything going wrong with this plan.

This FO has so messed up the 40 man construction it is a wonder they still have a job.

The 40 man sits at 39 right now, so even if they sign Story, that means Rooker moves to part of the back up plan, and for any pitcher they get they have to cut or trade pitchers off the 40. Hey but they open up two spots when the season starts for Enlow and Maeda. ?

What should Plan B look like in your mind?

[IndianaTwin]

13 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

So as of now Plan B for the Offense/Defense is Lewis, Miranda and Celestino, and then a bunch of AAA players that need to be added to the 40, can't see anything going wrong with this plan.

This FO has so messed up the 40 man construction it is a wonder they still have a job.

The 40 man sits at 39 right now, so even if they sign Story, that means Rooker moves to part of the back up plan, and for any pitcher they get they have to cut or trade pitchers off the 40. Hey but they open up two spots when the season starts for Enlow and Maeda. ?

Someone will correct me if I'm wrong (heck, it's the internet -- someone might try correcting me if I'm right!), but I think players can be put on the 60-day IL at the beginning of spring training.

Not sure how that's positioned this year, but in normal years, that means Enlow and Maeda could go there now (but not until the 40-man is full and the spot is needed), so they are effectively at 37 spots. 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Isn't the plan B for nearly every team AAA players? Outside the super wealthy teams, that seems like every team's plan B.

I'd be thrilled if Rooker is in Plan B, rather than A. I could be wrong about him, but I just don't seem him playing decent D anywhere. And they have plenty of DH options....

Well of course it is AAA players, but the Twins Plan A already has too many AAA players IMO. They have basically zero depth, because their 40 man is loaded with pitching prospects that are completely untested. So as of now if Jeffers starts out this year like last year (or Gaby gets hurt), they have to somebody or put somebody on the 60 day just to have a back up catcher. If Laranch hits like last year, the back up is another guy that couldn't hit last year. Or God Forbid Buxton goes down for a few weeks, every Plan B is terrible, well except Martin (maybe) and he isn't even on the 40. There really isn't any hitting prospects that seem to be close either.

Which isn't all that much different from last year, when things go bad or unexpected there was NO plan on putting somebody capable in to replace somebody, oh wait Cave is in AAA all is good.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Well of course it is AAA players, but the Twins Plan A already has too many AAA players IMO. They have basically zero depth, because their 40 man is loaded with pitching prospects that are completely untested. So as of now if Jeffers starts out this year like last year (or Gaby gets hurt), they have to somebody or put somebody on the 60 day just to have a back up catcher. If Laranch hits like last year, the back up is another guy that couldn't hit last year. Or God Forbid Buxton goes down for a few weeks, every Plan B is terrible, well except Martin (maybe) and he isn't even on the 40. There really isn't any hitting prospects that seem to be close either.

Which isn't all that much different from last year, when things go bad or unexpected there was NO plan on putting somebody capable in to replace somebody, oh wait Cave is in AAA all is good.

I'll bite. Which position players are AAA players? (Gordon and Rooker are AAAA or MLB players, other than that?)

[TwinsDr2021]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What should Plan B look like in your mind?

Laranch, Gordon, Celestiono, Miranda, Rooker, Lewis and maybe AK not be being part of plan A.

Getting a decent LF that can be made the 4th OF if one of the outfielders force their way up. Miranda to be called up for 1B, 3B, DH if something goes bad or just start him at 3B and make Urshela the roving back up infieler. Gordon to be a guy brought up to be back up SS, 2B, CF if needed. Tell Lewis to get comfortable and get his game back and his time will come when he is ready, he won't be forced into action. Maybe have a 3rd catcher on the 40?  Get rid of some of the log jam of pitchers on the 40. How can a team carry Valliont, Thorpe, Strotman, Sands, Moran, Jax, Henrquez, Graza with no earthly idea if they are major league pitchers.

[TwinsDr2021]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'll bite. Which position players are AAA players? (Gordon and Rooker are AAAA or MLB players, other than that?)

At this point, Gordon, Rooker, Laranch, and even AK until he proves healthy. (which hopefully is right away in spring training) And currently the starting catcher hit .199 last year. Which I expect he will be better, but...

I am fine with giving 1 spot to unproven minor league player (for example 3B to Miranda or AK in LF) but giving more than 1 spot to somebody with really no back up plan, turns seasons in 2021.

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Laranch, Gordon, Celestiono, Miranda, Rooker, Lewis and maybe AK not be being part of plan A.

Getting a decent LF that can be made the 4th OF if one of the outfielders force their way up. Miranda to be called up for 1B, 3B, DH if something goes bad or just start him at 3B and make Urshela the roving back up infieler. Gordon to be a guy brought up to be back up SS, 2B, CF if needed. Tell Lewis to get comfortable and get his game back and his time will come when he is ready, he won't be forced into action. Maybe have a 3rd catcher on the 40?  Get rid of some of the log jam of pitchers on the 40. How can a team carry Valliont, Thorpe, Strotman, Sands, Moran, Jax, Henrquez, Graza with no earthly idea if they are major league pitchers.

AK seems reasonable to have as part of plan A. I'm not a fan of Rooker at all so I'd be good cutting him today, but that'd be a waste so they should at least wait until they sign/trade for someone. Gordon is a reasonable enough UTIL guy I think. He's not the best end of the bench player in the league, but I think he's serviceable enough due to his ability to play all over the field. Agree on Larnach, Celestino, and Miranda starting in AAA, and I think that's likely the actual plan (the timing of this article seems poor to me, I have to believe there's more moves coming that would drastically change what things look like).

As for the pitchers, that's just the nature of the 40-man beast. I thought bringing a 40-man roster guy back in the Garver-IKF trade was weird, but it happens. I think the Twins are likely willing to DFA Thorpe without much concern if/when they bring in another arm. But there's no reason to do it until you need to. But those are all arms worthy of protecting on the 40-man until you have a more proven option to replace them. I just don't think (hope?) the current 40-man is the one we'll see come April 7 (and hopefully it's changed by Thursday when they start playing ST games). So I think this is more about this article being poorly timed and looking at a project in the middle of being completed and trying to draw conclusions when there isn't enough of the picture to truly draw conclusions.

[TwinsDr2021]

15 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

 So I think this is more about this article being poorly timed and looking at a project in the middle of being completed and trying to draw conclusions when there isn't enough of the picture to truly draw conclusions.

Can't disagree with anything you said, as of today it doesn't look good for the Good Guys (Twins ?)

 

[Mike Sixel]

35 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

At this point, Gordon, Rooker, Laranch, and even AK until he proves healthy. (which hopefully is right away in spring training) And currently the starting catcher hit .199 last year. Which I expect he will be better, but...

I am fine with giving 1 spot to unproven minor league player (for example 3B to Miranda or AK in LF) but giving more than 1 spot to somebody with really no back up plan, turns seasons in 2021.

Kiriloff is not a AAA player.

Gordon is a backup, what do you expect?

Larnach? Not sure on him yet. 

Rooker? I'm not a fan, but he's at least a AAAA player, so sure?

How many teams do you think don't have players of this quality on their roster? Maybe one of those guys is a starter, maybe. 

On larnarch and Jeffers.... Your post reads to me like you don't want young players on the roster. Imo, that's not realistic. At some point, you have to give those players a shot. 

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Can't disagree with anything you said, as of today it doesn't look good for the Good Guys (Twins ?)

 

I'm getting more and more nervous as the hours tick by. Once the FA flood gates open (likely after Freeman signs I'd think) I'll be even more nervous as names come off the board and there's still no starting SS for the Twins. Just sign Story (or Correa!) and let my blood pressure go back down!

[TwinsDr2021]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Kiriloff is not a AAA player.

Gordon is a backup, what do you expect?

Larnach? Not sure on him yet. 

Rooker? I'm not a fan, but he's at least a AAAA player, so sure?

How many teams do you think don't have players of this quality on their roster? Maybe one of those guys is a starter, maybe. 

On larnarch and Jeffers.... Your post reads to me like you don't want young players on the roster. Imo, that's not realistic. At some point, you have to give those players a shot. 

If AK is not healthy, he also isn't a major league player. Gordon is a backup, and if somebody gets hurt he slides into a starting role, and who slides into his role? Rooker right now is a starter, unless the Twins plan to have both of their catchers in the starting lineup daily or Larnach starts in LF, Sano at DH and AK at 1B.

As for Jeffers, I would prefer he starts as the back up catcher, until he forces his way to the main catcher. I have nothing against young guys, I am not a fan of throwing a bunch out at once and hoping it works, is usually doesn't, or it does but not in the near future.

If you think the way the 40 man is constructed as of today is good and well prepared for a 162 game schedule, that is great, I don't but we don't all have to agree, which is what makes this great.

[RJA]

Boy, this article wasn't really a day brightener. Sorry, Cody.   If this group were to open the season, we are in real trouble.  This year of all years it makes no sense to predict rosters as SO many players remain available and so much can change.  I expect 2 or 3 more additons/subtractions at least.  If that doesn't happen, well, watching the minor leagues is a blast :).

[Franz]

It seems to me that Miranda would be a better fit as an infielder on this roster than Rooker. I think we reached our limit on 'his best fielding position is DH" types with Sano and Sanchez. But as many have said, this can't possibly be the end of the pre-season transactions.

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, Cody Christie said:

if the team doesn’t make other moves.

If the team doesn’t make other moves, I predict some here (including myself) are going to lose their ****.

[terrydactyls]

Hole in LF: Kris Bryant, Joc Peterson, Eddie Rosario, Corey Dickerson, and Kyle Schwarber available.

Hole at SS: Story and Correa still available.

Starting Pitcher: Greinke, Danny Duffy, and Pineda still available.

Relief Pitcher: Collin McHugh, Ryan Tepera, Kenley Jenson, and John Curtis's still available.

My suggestion is to use the large war chest available to make inflated offers to all of them, see who is interested, and then negotiate with the ones you like best.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Hole in LF: Kris Bryant, Joc Peterson, Eddie Rosario, Corey Dickerson, and Kyle Schwarber available.

Hole at SS: Story and Correa still available.

Starting Pitcher: Greinke, Danny Duffy, and Pineda still available.

Relief Pitcher: Collin McHugh, Ryan Tepera, Kenley Jenson, and John Curtis's still available.

My suggestion is to use the large war chest available to make inflated offers to all of them, see who is interested, and then negotiate with the ones you like best.

I like Larnach and eventually Martin better than any of those LF options.

I would happily take either SS on a 5 or 6 year deal.

Not interested in any of those starting pitchers. I'd rather deal for one.

I have no idea what they should do with the bullpen, given all the pitchers on the 40 man.

[terrydactyls]

24 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I like Larnach and eventually Martin better than any of those LF options.

I would happily take either SS on a 5 or 6 year deal.

Not interested in any of those starting pitchers. I'd rather deal for one.

I have no idea what they should do with the bullpen, given all the pitchers on the 40 man.

I meant to say throw inflated ONE YEAR offers at them.  Put a strong team on the field in 2022 and give Larnach, Martin, and others another year to be ready.

[Five minute major]

I refuse to believe they are done adjusting this roster.  I expect a big free agent signing or another big trade.