Analyzing the Twins March Madness Additions

[Andrew Mahlke]

In one of the most active offseason weekends in Twins history, the Twins acquired three players who will have a large impact on the Twins for the 2022 season and possibly beyond. These moves may be the first in a series of moves to come for the Twins, and we could have a crazy few days ahead of us.

Weekend Recap:
On Saturday, the Twins traded catcher Mitch Garver to the Texas Rangers in exchange for Twins legend Isiah Kiner-Falefa and right-handed pitching prospect Ronny Henriquez.

Sunday afternoon, the Twins traded 2021 first-round pick Chase Petty to the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for right-handed pitcher Sonny Gray and right-handed pitching prospect Francis Peguero.

And finally, late Sunday night, the Twins traded third baseman Josh Donaldson, Kiner-Falefa, and catcher Ben Rortvedt to the New York Yankees for infielder Gio Urshela and catcher Gary Sanchez.

Since the season is only a few weeks away, let’s focus on the three players who will make an impact on the Twins from the get go.

Sonny Gray
Trading a first round pick who was only drafted nine months prior and has thrown his fastball over 100 miles per hour as a prep pitcher means that you must have a lot of faith in what you are getting in return.

A two-time all-star, Gray has had a successful career to this point, going 82-72 with a 3.61 career ERA while pitching for the Athletics, Yankees, and Reds. In 2021, Gray was 7-9 with a 4.19 ERA. In a vacuum, these statistics are very average, as the MLB average ERA is 4.26. However, Gray pitched better than these numbers suggest. Let’s dive into it.

Gray suffered from poor batted-ball luck when he was on the mound in 2021. Although his ERA was 4.19, his expected ERA (xERA) based on the quality of contact he allowed was 3.22. This is something to point to when people may suggest that Gray is past his prime.

In his three years in Cincinnati, who have revamped their organizational philosophy to develop strong pitchers, Gray posted 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. This is a big change from his two seasons in New York, in which he posted 8.4 strikeouts per nine. One reason for Gray’s increased success has been the improvement of his slider. Gray has one of the best sliders in baseball. According to Baseball Savant, Gray has the eighth most vertical movement on his slider and the ninth most horizontal movement among all qualified pitchers in Major League Baseball.  His baseball savant percentile ranking chart is a thing of beauty, showing that he is near the top of the league in limiting hard contact, which will be a huge positive for a team that struggled so desperately to limit hard contact in 2021.

Finally, Gray is only due to make $10.2 million in 2022 with a $12 million club option in 2023, making him a relatively cheap option for the next two years for the Twins.

Gio Urshela
Unlike Gray, Urshela is a player who has been overlooked his entire career. After going unselected in the 2018 Rule 5 Draft, Urshela made the rest of the league seem foolish when he hit .314/.355/.534 (.889) with 21 home runs in 2019 for the Yankees. He followed up that performance with a short-season .298/.368/.490 (.858) performance in 2020.

In 2021, Urshela took a minor step back after having an injury riddled season. He hit .267/.301/.419 (.720) and only posted 1.0 fWAR in 116 games. With the Twins trading away slugger Josh Donaldson, they will need Urshela to step up in a big way in 2022 at the hot corner.

Similar to Gray, there is some promise in Urshela. His 2021 season was not very good statistically, as his Baseball Savant numbers are shown above. These struggles could very well be injury related and he could return to his 2019-20 form where he was in the 98th percentile of all hitters in expected batting average and the 90th percentile in terms of strikeout rate. Urshela is promising with the bat, not anything special with the glove, but he could definitely be a solid contributor for the Twins in ‘22.

Gary Sanchez
When a TwinsDaily writer brings up the name Miguel Sano, you usually hear a variety of different opinions ranging from “send him down to AAA” to “don’t trade him, he is the next David Ortiz”. Well Twins fans, get ready for another polarizing player in Gary "The Sanchise" Sanchez.

When Sanchez made his debut in 2016, it seemed like we were witnessing the next Yankee great. That year, he hit 20 home runs in 53 games. His .657 slugging percentage was the best ever by a rookie (min. 200 plate appearances). He followed it up by hitting .278/.345/.531 (.876) with 33 home runs in 2017.

After those two years, Sanchez has been very average offensively, still hitting for power but failing to have an OBP above .316 since 2017. He also has been one of the worst defensive catchers in baseball. In 2021, Sanchez was the fourth worst catcher in baseball in terms of framing, costing his team six runs because of his inability to frame.

Sanchez could be a primary DH for the Twins when not catching, and with his extreme power potential he could be a scary force, especially against lefties, against whom he posted a .835 OPS in 2021.

The Twins added three players who all could make a very good impact on the team’s 2022 success if they live up to their potential. Which of these players are you most excited to watch? What move do you think the Twins make next? Leave a comment below and start a discussion.

Thank you for reading, and Go Twins!

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[miracleb]

"Sanchez could be a primary DH for the Twins when not catching, and with his extreme power potential he could be a scary force, especially against lefties, against whom he posted a .835 OPS in 2021."

 

I sure hope the Twins don't screw over Jeffers again by letting Sanchez hit against all the lefties.......

[Whitey333]

Who knows what the FO will do.  Listening to Falvey try to explain things adds to the confusion.  He himself states he doesn't know where this is all going.  Ever since the Twins trader Berrios and Cruz for inexperienced and cheap prospects, the salary dump has been on.  Let's hope there is a plan here to add more players. 

[Unwinder]

I'm not too excited about Sanchez, but robo-umps are on the way, so who knows how long his pitch framing issues are going to matter?

[Otaknam]

Right now the trade for Sanchez makes no sense unless they trade him or Sano for pitching. If Sano is moved Sanchez could be the primary DH and third catcher.. There won’t be enough at bats for both at DH. The trade weakens catching defense and shortstop while adding nothing to DH over Sano. Another trade or FA signing must be in the works. (FYI, “ variety of different opinions” is redundant).

[mikelink45]

I like your optimism even if I don't share any of it.  Keep rooting for the home team.

[Nashvilletwin]

If the Twins sign Story (or Correa lol) and Miranda is actually a true major leaguer (both of which I expect), then Urshela and Sanchez should have no role on this team.

Urshela would be an expensive utility player who hits and fields worse than our existing utility player (LA).  We have no place on this team for a piss poor defensive catcher who strikes out at Sano rates without the equivalent pop.

If Miranda is any good, then the only way those two will help the Twins in any significant way in 2022 or beyond is via a salary dump trade before the deadline. If Miranda is not ready, Urshela is our starting 3B. But he should not be our starting SS. 

Gray is another story and hopefully he and Maeda plus at least two of our young gun starters comprise a solid core in our 2023 rotation.

Honestly, what was the purpose behind trading for Gray (a trade I like, btw) if we are going to start reclamation projects Urshela at SS and Sanchez 40% or so of the innings at C?  We traded our outstanding catcher depth, a combo 3B/DH and a legit SS for those  two clowns. Yeah, I’m a bit salty this morning. All to get rid of JD’s salary?

Why is this move better than just signing Story, bring up Miranda, and move JD at the deadline if we are not contending and/or Miranda is producing?

There has to be more coming. 

 

[terrydactyls]

In my opinion, a lot of commenters who have been contributing to the articles about recent trades by the front office have one thing in common. They all want instant gratification.  In some cases, less than a day passed before the rants began proclaiming this trade or that trade is a total failure because the next move hadn't happened.  I'm waiting until Opening Day to decide if I like all the trades.  There may be a number of other trades being worked on, along with the signing of a couple free agents.  Relax; enjoy the warming weather; daylight savings starts soon; get your vegetable gardens ready; etc.

[Mark G]

2 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Who knows what the FO will do.  Listening to Falvey try to explain things adds to the confusion.  He himself states he doesn't know where this is all going.  Ever since the Twins trader Berrios and Cruz for inexperienced and cheap prospects, the salary dump has been on.  Let's hope there is a plan here to add more players. 

I couldn't concur more.  Listening to Falvey might make me want to buy a used car from him, but it doesn't make me want to buy box seats to a game.  Can anyone say they have ever gotten a straight up answer to a straight up question from these 2 (3?) since they came?  Make that 4.........JP doesn't give any either, he just punts to the other 3.  This is a fan base waiting to get fired up, and the ingredients are out there to make it happen.  So, smartest guys in the room, make it happen!!

[Trov]

From the moment the trade with Yankees happened, I said this is not the last move we see from Twins this year.  They freed up money from Donaldson to hopefully sign a SS, most likely it looks like Story, who I have not been big on, but we need something.  For the right price I am fine with Story but he has a ton of red flags over next few years. I also believe Twins will look to move Sanchez as well for possible pitching, not sure if that move is out there though.  I have a feeling the FO have ideas of where Sanchez could go, despite making statements they are happy to have him.  

Of course if follow up moves fall through and we are left with hole at SS and Sanchez as catcher or at least backup, I would say this was a huge fail.  Donaldson was fading quickly, and his calfs could go at any moment.  I am looking forward to hearing how the Yankees clubhouse deals with Donaldson and Cole together, as they had huge beef on social media last year, with the sticky substance issues. 

[dex8425]

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

If the Twins sign Story (or Correa lol) and Miranda is actually a true major leaguer (both of which I expect), then Urshela and Sanchez should have no role on this team.

Urshela would be an expensive utility player who hits and fields worse than our existing utility player (LA).  We have no place on this team for a piss poor defensive catcher who strikes out at Sano rates without the equivalent pop.

If Miranda is any good, then the only way those two will help the Twins in any significant way in 2022 or beyond is via a salary dump trade before the deadline. If Miranda is not ready, Urshela is our starting 3B. But he should not be our starting SS. 

Gray is another story and hopefully he and Maeda plus at least two of our young gun starters comprise a solid core in our 2023 rotation.

Honestly, what was the purpose behind trading for Gray (a trade I like, btw) if we are going to start reclamation projects Urshela at SS and Sanchez 40% or so of the innings at C?  We traded our outstanding catcher depth, a combo 3B/DH and a legit SS for those  two clowns. Yeah, I’m a bit salty this morning. All to get rid of JD’s salary?

Why is this move better than just signing Story, bring up Miranda, and move JD at the deadline if we are not contending and/or Miranda is producing?

There has to be more coming. 

 

I think it makes Arraez expendable because Urshela is a way better defender than LA. Arraez isn't a good defender anywhere, Urshela is elite at 3b and can even play short. Who will hit better in '23 is probably up for debate, though obviously Arraez is cheaper.  

[tony&rodney]

21 minutes ago, Trov said:

Donaldson was fading quickly,

.... which still made put him among the top three players on the team. 

23 minutes ago, Trov said:

I am looking forward to hearing how the Yankees clubhouse deals with Donaldson and Cole together, as they had huge beef on social media last year, with the sticky substance issues. 

Both Donaldson and Cole are consummate professionals dedicated to their craft and focused on winning; they are delighted to be on the same team because they want to win the World Series.

[LastOnePicked]

People somehow think we're going to flip Sanchez. The Yankees have been trying to trade him without success for well over a year, and rumors were flying that he was going to be waived. He's simply not valuable at this point in his career, and FOs across MLB know it. Well, most of them do.

Urshela is far from elite in the field or at the plate, and he's also injury-prone, with multiple injuries in 2021 including hamstring issues. It's very likely that he'll spend considerable time on the IL, just like we feared with Donaldson.

I hope that some miracle occurs and they both have great stays here in MN. But I am very tired of hoping that miracles happen for this team, particularly when there's not even a clear plan for success.

[Gatormandd]

7 hours ago, Mark G said:

I couldn't concur more.  Listening to Falvey might make me want to buy a used car from him, but it doesn't make me want to buy box seats to a game

I actually bought a Dodge Durango from Falvey (in CT); it was a good deal on a bad car, but cheap enough to make it worth it for the time I owned it.  In much the same way, I think the Twins are too risk-averse when it comes to big dollars (think of what we did just to get rid of JD salary, IN CASE he doesn't do well to open the season) to make me think anything good is coming.  More moves, yes, will the owners spend more money? Yes, some, but not what is needed for legit contention, as they hope to strike gold.

 

[Nashvilletwin]

6 hours ago, dex8425 said:

I think it makes Arraez expendable because Urshela is a way better defender than LA. Arraez isn't a good defender anywhere, Urshela is elite at 3b and can even play short. Who will hit better in '23 is probably up for debate, though obviously Arraez is cheaper.  

Arraez played very well at 3B last year - better than JD from what I’ve read on the TD.  

[dex8425]

14 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Arraez played very well at 3B last year - better than JD from what I’ve read on the TD.  

He has a negative outs above average rating at every position. -5 in 2021 and -12 in 2019. That's bad. Donaldson was above average defensively every year with the Twins. Arraez isn't a complete butcher but he's not fast, and he doesn't have a great arm. Donaldson has a cannon. 

[Mauer4HOF]

Andrew, great article!  I always appreciate your research and what seems like unbiased positioning.  While everyone can have an opinion, I like reading your articles and feeling like I can draw my own conclusions instead of being biased by the article.  Keep kicking out these analytics-filled insights that help us all learn what may be one layer deeper.  I’m personally not excited about either Yankee and the loss of Mitch, but I do think Sonny has the potential to be a strong #2 and will make a great 1-2-3 with Maeda and hopefully Ryan in 2023!