4 Things We Know After the Stunning Twins-Yankees Trade

[mrtwinsfan]

Please take the time to look at Storys  home batting average and road avg, , i would only  be in favor of signing him to a one year contract with maybe a option at a inflated price,  Colorado is a hitters paradise, Ask Morneau and Cuddyer , they both go there and win Batting titles,  Rather play Gordon there and if it works ? Great if not will we ever see Royce lewis ?, And the way Rocco manages i could see him  starting a few players at S.S. rotating them, im not a fan of that , But pl;ease after getting out of Joshs 50+ a contract , dont give story anything over a 1-2 year deal, And i see Rortved maybe turning into a decent hitter at yankee stadium , all he does is pull the ball,  please Falvey TALK TO YOUR FANS, WERE ALL At least me confused with these moves

[rickyriolo]

There is NO plan for the 2022 season.  we just dumped a 50M contract . I hope the FO learns from that mistake. Trades with other teams is the only way out of this and pray Lewis sticks at SS

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, TwinsChupacabra said:

An earlier posted said "I mean no disrespect to any front office, they are all better at what they do than us mere mortals making comments about what they are doing."

At this point, I really have to disagree.  The percentage of diehard Twins fans that would call the current front office CLUELESS, it growing by the day. 

They won two division titles so far. Let me ask you seriously....do you think they are clueless, or that you disagree with some of their decisions? 

[h2oface]

6 hours ago, JDubs said:

People are really overreacting by saying the Twins blew up the catching spot. Garver was tough to see go, but he's a 31 year old catcher who has only topped 100 games in a season once in his career. Rortvedt is basically the definition of replacement-level, it will absolutely not be difficult in the slightest to sign a glove-first, no-hit catcher for cheap.

Not too unusual, especially if Baldelli is managing for this FO.

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2019/1/30/18202907/starting-catchers-disappearing-realmuto-posey-molina-grandal-red-sox-royals-marlins-diamondbacks

[jmlease1]

5 hours ago, roger said:

One cannot read any posting here and elsewhere without seeing Story's name mentioned in probably more than half of the comments.  I ask, what is the love affair with Story?  The numbers I have seen indicate he is average to mediocre away from Coors Field.  If that is true, why would the Twins want to tie themselves to a contract both bigger and longer than Donaldson's?  I just don't understand the love affair many of you have with this guy and hope like heck the Twins don't sign him.  

The love affair with Story is he's a fine combination of offense and defense. Even in a bit of a down year, he's an excellent defender at SS and has been his whole career. Offensively he had a dip, but finished the second half of the season strong and we're not panicking about his away splits, because the data increasingly suggests that those kind of splits will normalize when he gets away from Coors. Even in a rough offensive season, Story was worth 4.2 bWAR, and there's little reason to suspect that he can't be a 3-5 bWAR player for the next 3-5 years. He's in the prime of his career and would be a terrific fit in the Twins lineup. We wouldn't need to worry about whether Martin or Lewis can handle SS (if they can, great, but we won't NEED them to) and we'd be looking at very strong defense up the middle with Jeffers behind the plate (quality defensive catcher), Polanco & Story at 2B & SS, and Buxton in CF. The love affair from me is on with him because I think he's a star player who we might be able to land without committing 10 years and $350M.

I wanted us to sign Story from the start of free agency, and he's an even better fit now.

The problem with Donaldson and his contract is a) he's aging, b) he's always been injury prone, and c) the $8M kicker at the end. We were willing to eat a potential problem at the end of the contract because the team was already contending and there was no reason to think it wouldn't for at least half the contract. And they were right about year 1: we made the playoffs. Year 2, literally everything went to crap and no one really saw it coming. Even pessimistic projections had us in the mix. We were taking a risk that Donaldson might still be a significant contributor in year 3 and we'd eat what we had to in year 4 (and maybe get lucky). A deal with Story has better odds of success, frankly: he's younger, he's healthier, and he's better. He plays a position of serious need. If he starts slipping there's other positions he could slide down to while still providing value (Donaldson either played 3B or DH and loses a lot of value if he no longer plays 3B).

Story is a great fit right now. I'd take the risk on him.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, TwinsChupacabra said:

An earlier posted said "I mean no disrespect to any front office, they are all better at what they do than us mere mortals making comments about what they are doing."

At this point, I really have to disagree.  The percentage of diehard Twins fans that would call the current front office CLUELESS, it growing by the day. 

I was that poster.

There isn't a front office or head coach that isn't feeling the wrath of diehard fans.

If you searched Crimsontidedaily. I'm sure you'll find a contingent of posters who think Nick Saban is clueless. This is what fans do when things don't go perfectly because they know that they have had 387 straight days of perfect performance doing whatever jobs they do and are absolutely qualified to judge because of their perfection.    

There are 30 of these jobs. Going through the interview process and the vetting to land the job with competition from all those candidates who have a clue just to end up getting the job and still be clueless when it is all said and done. That would be stunning if that actually happened.   

Now... How they stack up against their peers is probably where the debate could legitimately begin but diehard fans calling a major league front office clueless would be more interesting to me if I haven't heard it a million times. 

This what they do all day. They employ large staffs of people who do this stuff all day. The stuff they do... are the very definition of clues. ?

[Doctor Gast]

I really hated to see Garver & Rortvedt go, I'd rather see them ship Jeffers. It sounds like we are flipping Sanchez somewhere (good) so we have a need for another catcher, would Castro be available?

I agree with you Nick on your assessment, big holes at SS (Story), another SP (Montas) and a viable Buxton back up. Another back end RP would be nice.

[Game7-91]

Nick outlines the main points well, it really is wait and see....this trade value is too connected to whatever comes next to draw anu conclusions right now. I am worried abt catcher, although interesting to see Oak traded for an Atl catcher....if we're working on an Oak deal maybe that could expand ,beyond SP? As Nick says, it will be fun to see how this plays out.

[se7799]

I honestly must ask in a kind way.  Are only Twins fans on TD?  Hard to understand so much dislike and anger against our team.  Maybe we are being infiltrated by Sox fans....I'm half joking...but really?

[Major League Ready]

35 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I really hated to see Garver & Rortvedt go, I'd rather see them ship Jeffers. It sounds like we are flipping Sanchez somewhere (good) so we have a need for another catcher, would Castro be available?

I agree with you Nick on your assessment, big holes at SS (Story), another SP (Montas) and a viable Buxton back up. Another back end RP would be nice.

Are there any reports of us flipping Snachez or is this speculation?  

[Minny505]

2 hours ago, mrtwinsfan said:

Please take the time to look at Storys  home batting average and road avg, , i would only  be in favor of signing him to a one year contract with maybe a option at a inflated price,  Colorado is a hitters paradise, Ask Morneau and Cuddyer , they both go there and win Batting titles,  Rather play Gordon there and if it works ? Great if not will we ever see Royce lewis ?, And the way Rocco manages i could see him  starting a few players at S.S. rotating them, im not a fan of that , But pl;ease after getting out of Joshs 50+ a contract , dont give story anything over a 1-2 year deal, And i see Rortved maybe turning into a decent hitter at yankee stadium , all he does is pull the ball,  please Falvey TALK TO YOUR FANS, WERE ALL At least me confused with these moves

I guess I'm going to make it my mission on Twins Daily to put this Rockies home/road splits concern to rest. I thought they were already, but seems not.

Take ten minutes to read these three articles. You'll see that, on average, hitter get better after leaving the Rockies, not worse. 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-rockies-have-their-worst-coors-field-hangover-yet/

https://www.draysbay.com/2016/1/29/10868328/coors-field-hitters-corey-dickerson-analysis

http://mets360.com/?p=41757

Story has produced equal WAR to Seager and Correa over almost any period since 2016, but can be had at nearly half the price due to being two years older. He's a steal. I's try to go as short as possible with him, but would do up to 6 years if that is what it took. 

[LastOnePicked]

51 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

This what they do all day. They employ large staffs of people who do this stuff all day. The stuff they do... are the very definition of clues. ?

You nailed the semantics. Solid rebuttal.

I think many of us are trying to argue that they don't read these clues very well. The same folks who are convinced that Donaldson needed to be moved are the same folks who were also certain that Akil Baddoo wasn't ready for the big leagues but Trevor Larnach was, They thought that Shaun Anderson and LaMonte Wade Jr. were of the same trade value. They thought Robbie Ray wasn't worth signing, but J. A. Happ was.

So, many of us are skeptical of these moves, and not without good reason. But I'm sure we'll have plenty of threads this year to debate the value, or lack thereof, of this FO to the organization's future.

[Minny505]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

The love affair with Story is he's a fine combination of offense and defense. Even in a bit of a down year, he's an excellent defender at SS and has been his whole career. Offensively he had a dip, but finished the second half of the season strong and we're not panicking about his away splits, because the data increasingly suggests that those kind of splits will normalize when he gets away from Coors. Even in a rough offensive season, Story was worth 4.2 bWAR, and there's little reason to suspect that he can't be a 3-5 bWAR player for the next 3-5 years. He's in the prime of his career and would be a terrific fit in the Twins lineup. We wouldn't need to worry about whether Martin or Lewis can handle SS (if they can, great, but we won't NEED them to) and we'd be looking at very strong defense up the middle with Jeffers behind the plate (quality defensive catcher), Polanco & Story at 2B & SS, and Buxton in CF. The love affair from me is on with him because I think he's a star player who we might be able to land without committing 10 years and $350M.

I wanted us to sign Story from the start of free agency, and he's an even better fit now.

The problem with Donaldson and his contract is a) he's aging, b) he's always been injury prone, and c) the $8M kicker at the end. We were willing to eat a potential problem at the end of the contract because the team was already contending and there was no reason to think it wouldn't for at least half the contract. And they were right about year 1: we made the playoffs. Year 2, literally everything went to crap and no one really saw it coming. Even pessimistic projections had us in the mix. We were taking a risk that Donaldson might still be a significant contributor in year 3 and we'd eat what we had to in year 4 (and maybe get lucky). A deal with Story has better odds of success, frankly: he's younger, he's healthier, and he's better. He plays a position of serious need. If he starts slipping there's other positions he could slide down to while still providing value (Donaldson either played 3B or DH and loses a lot of value if he no longer plays 3B).

Story is a great fit right now. I'd take the risk on him.

Right there with you. Story is currently projected by every projection system to be as valuable on the field as Jorge Polanco. I would take that bet on Story topping Polanco in WAR if each of them have a healthy season.

And with Correa seemingly headed back to the Astros, the Yankees having their solution, and the Angels and Phillies indicating they are looking to spend elsewhere, it's down to the Twins and a marginally interested Red Sox front office.

He can probably be had on a contract that will age very well at this point, unless the Red Sox get serious. Story is an upgrade over Bogarts at SS, with Bogarts going to 2B, but their payroll is already over their 2021 payroll. I suspect they sign Jonathan Villar for 5mil or so and take that to the trade deadline to maintain flexibility to take on salary then when needs become more clear.

[Minny505]

6 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

You nailed the semantics. Solid rebuttal.

I think many of us are trying to argue that they don't read these clues very well. The same folks who are convinced that Donaldson needed to be moved are the same folks who were also certain that Akil Baddoo wasn't ready for the big leagues but Trevor Larnach was, They thought that Shaun Anderson and LaMonte Wade Jr. were of the same trade value. They thought Robbie Ray wasn't worth signing, but J. A. Happ was.

So, many of us are skeptical of these moves, and not without good reason. But I'm sure we'll have plenty of threads this year to debate the value, or lack thereof, of this FO to the organization's future.

You left out thinking that Matt Wisler, Zack Littel, and Nick Anderson were all fungible and releasing them. 

[Mike Sixel]

10 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

You left out thinking that Matt Wisler, Zack Littel, and Nick Anderson were all fungible and releasing them. 

And that they won the division twice.

[awmonahan]

14 hours ago, h2oface said:

What catchers? The only guy that is probably happy is Jeffers. But ST needs like 7 catchers. Are you ready to start seeing Sano and Sanchez start their quest for record strikeouts?

Catcher wasn't plural in my post, on purpose, so I think we're in agreement. Get ready to live out your dream job as a bullpen catcher! 

Sano and Sanchez, in the same lineup, are going to bend the game of baseball into something new and completely embarrassing. Now, if shifts were gone this year, I may give the FO the benefit of the doubt of being forward thinking, but it'll start next year, after Sanchez leaves. 

[cHawk]

3 hours ago, TwinsChupacabra said:

An earlier posted said "I mean no disrespect to any front office, they are all better at what they do than us mere mortals making comments about what they are doing."

At this point, I really have to disagree.  The percentage of diehard Twins fans that would call the current front office CLUELESS, it growing by the day. 

Amazing how none of them could get a job in the MLB but the “clueless” Falvey and Levine could. What an odd world we live in.

[bean5302]

5 hours ago, SwainZag said:

He also have been very injury prone and his defense has taken a big step back.  His advanced metrics are based upon him being on the field 90% of the time.  If you could guarantee that then yeah he would probably be worth keeping, but that's a huge if right now.

Donaldson played 135 games last year, many of them with a lingering calf injury because the Twins wanted to manipulate Jose Miranda's service time rather than give Donaldson a chance to heal. Donaldson played in 155 games in 2019.

In fact, the "very injury prone" Josh Donaldson has played in the 74th most games of any MLB player across 2019-2021 with 318 games. That'd make him the 2nd or 3rd most reliable player on any ballclub in general. Trevor Story ranked 30th in all of MLB with 346 games. Just 28 more than Donaldson across the past 3 years.

Buxton played 187 games.
Sano played 293 games.
Kepler played 303 games.
Cruz played 313 games.
Donaldson? Again... 318 games.

Even if Donaldson played the same, mediocre-ish brand of defense at 3B and just had normal luck, he'd have put up 4 WAR this past year. 

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

And that they won the division twice.

Thank heavens for Nelson Cruz. He was a great signing, by the way. As for all of the other signings by this FO, as Gleeman noted last year, they have paid $183.1 million for $133.6 million in value. And that doesn't even include the Happ and Shoemaker disasters.

Again, skepticism is warranted. But we'll certainly cover this territory again during the regular season. I'll try to get back on topic.

[Doctor Gast]

34 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Are there any reports of us flipping Snachez or is this speculation?  

I heard that someone who should know said that that FO would be trying to flip him but there is nothing definite.

[Linus]

So far Garver Donaldson and Rortvedt the Twins got Sanchez Ursela and $50 million. I know what Jim Pohlad likes best

They could have solved all these problems by simply bringing payroll back up to $130 million. That is the primary thing to remember about all this monkey business. 

[h2oface]

9 hours ago, cHawk said:

Amazing how none of them could get a job in the MLB but the “clueless” Falvey and Levine could. What an odd world we live in.

Many could do the job. Getting the job is as much luck as it is skill, many times. The ones commenting..... many are lifelong Twins' fans. They really do care. Even when Falvey and Levine....... visitors here, blow up the team for hope of fame and glory. Yes, they are paid. But $ is the only thing making them love the Twins right now. Total Visitors. They will leave at one point, when they are done playing fantasy baseball with the Twins and they have failed so badly that they can't get another similar job, or even if they will have succeeded for a spell and leave for more money, and not care a bit about our team as they move on. 

[mrtwinsfan]

4 hours ago, Minny505 said:

I guess I'm going to make it my mission on Twins Daily to put this Rockies home/road splits concern to rest. I thought they were already, but seems not.

Take ten minutes to read these three articles. You'll see that, on average, hitter get better after leaving the Rockies, not worse. 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-rockies-have-their-worst-coors-field-hangover-yet/

https://www.draysbay.com/2016/1/29/10868328/coors-field-hitters-corey-dickerson-analysis

http://mets360.com/?p=41757

Story has produced equal WAR to Seager and Correa over almost any period since 2016, but can be had at nearly half the price due to being two years older. He's a steal. I's try to go as short as possible with him, but would do up to 6 years if that is what it took. 

Thanx for the articles, reminds me of what i posted without going deeper todays Like  Mainstream  Media, Average is a quick only study, And ezzie Headline, Just happy that -bball is Back !!

[SwainZag]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Donaldson played 135 games last year, many of them with a lingering calf injury because the Twins wanted to manipulate Jose Miranda's service time rather than give Donaldson a chance to heal. Donaldson played in 155 games in 2019.

In fact, the "very injury prone" Josh Donaldson has played in the 74th most games of any MLB player across 2019-2021 with 318 games. That'd make him the 2nd or 3rd most reliable player on any ballclub in general. Trevor Story ranked 30th in all of MLB with 346 games. Just 28 more than Donaldson across the past 3 years.

Buxton played 187 games.
Sano played 293 games.
Kepler played 303 games.
Cruz played 313 games.
Donaldson? Again... 318 games.

Even if Donaldson played the same, mediocre-ish brand of defense at 3B and just had normal luck, he'd have put up 4 WAR this past year. 

First off, I am not going to comment on the accusations of the Twins manipulating anyone's service time.  Before this past season Miranda had done very little to show he would have such success.  He hit very well last season in 125 games in AA-AAA, but they had zero reason to rush him to the majors.  

I am a big Josh Donaldson fan.  You fail to mention he missed 50 games in 2017 and 1 10 in 2018.  He had a great 2019 season which led to the Twin to offer him the contract that he got.  He played half the games in 2020 and missed a very important playoff game the Twins could have really used him for.  He did play in 135 games last season and he was clearly not 100% for most if not all the season.  How many times did we see barely limp into 2nd base on a double that should have been easy?  He isn't getting any younger and his calf has been an issue.  Our own Nick Nelson goes very in depth about Dondaldson's calf issues here.  Where was the bad luck factoring in here?  If Buxton had better luck he might have won MVP last year.  

[cHawk]

6 hours ago, h2oface said:

Many could do the job. Getting the job is as much luck as it is skill, many times. The ones commenting..... many are lifelong Twins' fans. The really do care. Even when Falvey and Levine....... visitors here, blow up the team for hope of fame and glory. Yes, they are paid. But $ is the only thing making them love the Twins right now. Total Visitors. They will leave at one point, when they are done playing fantasy baseball with the Twins and they have failed so badly that they can't get another similar job, or even if they will have succeeded for a spell and leave for more money, and not care a bit about our team as they move on. 

None of this at all supports the notion that most fans are more qualified for the position than Falvey and Levine. You’re saying the job itself is easy? Are you ****ting me? How can you say a job is easy when you’ve (I’d assume, correct me if I’m wrong here) never actually done that job yourself?

[h2oface]

20 minutes ago, cHawk said:

None of this at all supports the notion that most fans are more qualified for the position than Falvey and Levine. You’re saying the job itself is easy? Are you ****ting me? How can you say a job is easy when you’ve (I’d assume, correct me if I’m wrong here) never actually done that job yourself?

I said what I said. Read it again if you are missing the point. I am not addressing the ease of a job, then or now.

[cHawk]

6 hours ago, h2oface said:

Many could do the job. Getting the job is as much luck as it is skill, many times. The ones commenting..... many are lifelong Twins' fans. They really do care. Even when Falvey and Levine....... visitors here, blow up the team for hope of fame and glory. Yes, they are paid. But $ is the only thing making them love the Twins right now. Total Visitors. They will leave at one point, when they are done playing fantasy baseball with the Twins and they have failed so badly that they can't get another similar job, or even if they will have succeeded for a spell and leave for more money, and not care a bit about our team as they move on. 

Most lifelong fans don’t have years of experience working in the MLB. That alone makes them unqualified for the GM position.

There is some luck involved with getting a job in the MLB, but the people who are selected for the GM position are not selected at random. They are selected because they’re the most experienced and they’re the best at their job. The same is true for Falvey and Levine.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, cHawk said:

Most lifelong fans don’t have years of experience working in the MLB. That alone makes them unqualified for the GM position.

There is some luck involved with getting a job in the MLB, but the people who are selected for the GM position are not selected at random. They are selected because they’re the most experienced and they’re the best at their job. The same is true for Falvey and Levine.

No doubt GMs all prove themselves along the way to getting the top jobs.  Most people don't start down a career path with an MLB team that could eventually lead to a GM job, so it’s fair to say that access to such jobs is extremely limited.  It’s also fair to say that the people who could most likely handle the job have achieved similar positions in other industries.  Access or getting these jobs is the same everywhere.  People are given those jobs with the requisite education, experience, and past performance that indicates they should have said job. How many of the people who always assume incompetence on the part of the FO have actually been responsible for a $300M P&L and/or negotiated 8 & 9 figure contracts in other industries.

Andrew Friedman earned a B.S. in management with a concentration in finance at Tulane.  He went on to be an analyst with Bear Stearns from 1999–2002, and then was an associate at MidMark Capital, a private equity firm from 2002-04.  Do you suppose he knows a little more about asset management than 99% of baseball fans?  

Before Jeff Lunhow joined the Astros he earned dual degrees from the University of Pennsylvania in economics and engineering.  He earned an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University.  He then worked as an engineer, management consultant, and technology entrepreneur.  He went on to work for McKinsey and Company, a global management consulting firm, for five years and then founded and served as president and chief operating officer of Archetype Solutions.  It would be fair to say others with similar credentials could join a MLB team in the front office and handle the job.
 

[Riverbrian]

14 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

You nailed the semantics. Solid rebuttal.

I think many of us are trying to argue that they don't read these clues very well. The same folks who are convinced that Donaldson needed to be moved are the same folks who were also certain that Akil Baddoo wasn't ready for the big leagues but Trevor Larnach was, They thought that Shaun Anderson and LaMonte Wade Jr. were of the same trade value. They thought Robbie Ray wasn't worth signing, but J. A. Happ was.

So, many of us are skeptical of these moves, and not without good reason. But I'm sure we'll have plenty of threads this year to debate the value, or lack thereof, of this FO to the organization's future.

I have this friend. I've known Josh for decades. Great Guy... I've seen him do favors for me and others without a second thought... sailed through med school, he's an expert in his field in something, I don't know what it is... too many syllables for me to remember or understand. 

Josh was coming to town for a couple of hockey games and he had an extra ticket because his wife had to stay home. He swung by, picked me up and on the way to the game, he was talking about how cold it was in Grand Forks because he had recently come back from Cancun or Chattanooga or someplace warmer. Just making conversation, I asked him how he liked the trip and while driving about 40mph in a 25, he fishes out his cell phone, locates all the photos and he goes over them with me... while driving about 40mph in a 25. In the process of pointing out the photos on his phone, he drifted to the other lane multiple times almost sideswiping a parked car on the opposite side, he also ran a stop sign without slowing down a bit. I had to make the suggestion that he show me the photo's later while pointing at the road.

Things were much better when he actually started looking at the road but before we got to the arena, a car nosed out into the road. It had to because of a large snow pile that blocked the view of oncoming traffic. It was a surprise appearance because we also couldn't see with that snowbank. The car just slowly nosed out and Josh swerved a little to his left, it wasn't really that close but it was a surprise so Josh laid on the horn for about 15 seconds, while shouting, you stupid (whatever) and the things he said about that driver was pretty rude.  

It's good time to remind everyone that Josh is absolutely without question a very nice guy and very smart but he failed to connect his driving with others. 

When fans call coaches and front offices idiots or clueless or whatever, it reminds me of road rage reaction. Completely out of perspective. 

 

BTW... At the hockey game. We fell behind 2-1 in the 2nd period and after the goal was scored, Josh started telling me that it was time for Coach Berry to go. He couldn't believe that a player was moved to a different line and we were now losing the game and it was 100 percent on the coach. He went on for awhile about every mistake that Coach Berry had made during his entire career behind the bench (about 5 examples) and then he asked me what I thought. 

I told him that the City should do something about that snowbank. 

 

[MN_ExPat]

Something else I now know about this trade.... JD has a major baby face without the beard.  I almost didn't recognize him the other day when MLB was showing footage of him in pinstripes.