4 Things We Know After the Stunning Twins-Yankees Trade

[LastOnePicked]

14 minutes ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

The FO is thinking a year ahead. Their goal for again being competitive is 2023, not 2022.

Dumping Rortvedt and Kiner-Falefa for nothing is not a move that strengthens our chances in 2023, no. If Donaldson wasn't performing, he could have been put on the IL, which would still give Miranda an opportunity. Plus, Donaldson possibly could have mentored him. If Donaldson did do well but the team stunk in 2022, he could have been traded at the deadline (maybe even for a lottery ticket prospect) and the Twins could have eaten the final year of salary.

I fail to see how anything that happened in this last trade was forward thinking. 

[wavedog]

Personally I would rather not overpay for Story in $ or years - I just don't see him as a Franchise type player to be the face of the franchise with a big contract.  Since we have payroll flexibility I would rather see us swallow a bad 1 or 2 year contract in return for getting some additional players with longer term value and not surrendering any of our top prospects.   Looking like this year is about player development and evaluation and maybe we can make a better push next year.           

[Dawgzilla]

Scrimp on payroll, like the Marlins!!!  Should be a Double A team then!!!!!  Then, move St. Paul to Major League status, being they are equal (lower ticket prices then accordingly=duh)!

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

You have many interesting thoughts in your comments but it was likely the Yankees who  suggested  Urshela because he is an expensive utility player. Both Polanco and Gordon on the current roster are better at shortstop than Urshela and we  want Polanco at 2B and we want to use Gordon as a utility if/of. The Twins could have, at the very least, held back Rortvedt whom I believe to hold potential going forward. 

It's quite possible that the Yankees suggested Urshela in the deal.

If it was the Yankees... it would have been an easy sell to the Twins with IFK going the other way. 

If it was the Twins... it would have been an easy sell to the Yankees with IFK going the other way. 

I can possibly agree with you on Polanco at SS being better... I don't have the same fear that others do about his SS abilities and potential utilization at SS even if 2B is clearly a better fit.  

Can't agree with you on Gordon and I don't think the Twins agree with you on either of them. 

Giving up Garver for IFK was a pretty clear indication that the Twins intend to keep Polanco at 2B, even with Arraez on the roster and the way they utilized Gordon last year seems to indicate that the Twins don't consider Gordon SS material. 

On the other hand... As I posted a couple of spots upward. Aaron Boone named Urshela the Yankees starting SS if nothing changed just hours before the trade. That seems to indicate that Urshela has SS ability that at least trumps Torres.   

It's easy to paint Urshela as an expensive utility. However, utility is something you are tagged with when the club you are on has stronger options.

I like Urshela for his utility abilities so Miranda can be given a clean look this year when the time comes but... I like Urshela only if we acquire a significant SS talent with the Josh Donaldson money. Urshela handling the SS position because we failed to upgrade the spot would be horrible. 

If we don't acquire a significant SS with talent... this crazy weekend will have been a mistake. 

On Sanchez... I look at things in degrees. I think there is no doubt that there are defensive issues with Sanchez... maybe even significant issues. However, those issues are almost always over played on chat boards like these. I remember the conversations about Ben Revere's arm.. Yeah it wasn't the strongest arm but posters made it seems like baserunners were going to gain 3B every time by default because of it. No it's not a cannon but he can get the ball into the infield. Sanchez... may not be a good defensive catcher in comparison with others but most games will come and go without the defensive issue causing an issue. But Yeah... I suppose it will rear its head from time to time. The Key is getting some of that Garver power replaced. 

 

[USAFChief]

To recap:

1. Worse off at C.

2. Worse off at 3b.

3. Still no SS.

4. Pohlad's bottom line improved.

Which of these appear to be the goal?

[Dman]

2 hours ago, roger said:

One cannot read any posting here and elsewhere without seeing Story's name mentioned in probably more than half of the comments.  I ask, what is the love affair with Story?  The numbers I have seen indicate he is average to mediocre away from Coors Field.  If that is true, why would the Twins want to tie themselves to a contract both bigger and longer than Donaldson's?  I just don't understand the love affair many of you have with this guy and hope like heck the Twins don't sign him.  

It is risky to be sure.  He definitely had  a down year last year. Lemehieu wasn't supposed to be any good outside of Coors either and the Yankee's signed him to a big contract after he proved otherwise and he is one of their best hitters.  It hard to say what all is happening on home and away splits.  I think right field at Target field should play to his pull side for power. He isn't the fastest but his defense has been above average which bodes well.

There are several teams out there that want him and he is rumored to have had a 100M dollar contract offer although to your point it was not to play shortstop.  He is far from my ideal pick for short but the Twins can't play in the 30M or more 7 to 8 year contracts for elite players so you drop a tier and look at Story on maybe a 4year deal at 25M per year with 30M option for a 5th year and hope you get three good years out of him.  Think if the Twins could get him for something like that it would be no worse and likely better than the Donaldson deal.

I don't think you have to worry too much though because the Twins are pretty allergic to deals over 20M per year for anything longer than a couple of years.  I think they get slightly outbid by another team.

 

[LA VIkes Fan]

4 hours ago, bighat said:

Anyone consider that maybe the Twins simply don't think Donaldson has much left in the tank? Or they believe his injuries are only going to get worse? Or both? If someone told you that Donaldson would play 90 games this year, would you take the over or under?

It wasn't just Donaldson's contract the Twins were unloading. Josh is an aging superstar who is both extremely vocal and injury prone. What I'm saying is, maybe unloading Donaldson didn't "downgrade" the Twins lineup as much as you think it did. At least consider it.

I think this is a good take. When you sign these aging stars in their 30s you wind up paying for the back end years where they won't be worth the money (see Pujols, Albert). We unloaded those years on the Yankees. I do agree with those who say that this makes the FO look bad for signing Donaldson 2 years ago when they clearly overestimated whether the twins had an open "window" to compete. Having said that, at least they were smart enough to cut bait when the time came. 

[chinmusic]

5 hours ago, Eris said:

If the Twins were unwilling to accept Donaldson’s contract why do we think they will spend even more money to sign a SS or SP.

There may be more at play than $. Age and probability of injury, obviously.

For all his mentoring skills and work ethic, who knows if there was friction between Donaldson and significant unknowns. Only speculating, but possibly a factor as well.

[LA VIkes Fan]

Here's a question: is a starting infield of Arraez/Miranda at 3B and Urshela/Gordon at SS better or worse than last year's combination of Donaldson and Simmons? Before you react, add in the factor of durability and games played. When you do that, I don't think it's that big a drop off if even much of a drop-off at all. The SS defense suffers but the 3B defense is probably just as good or better since Donaldson had no range and that certainly wasn't getting any better this year. Add in the fact that these guys are likely to be available to play most of the year whereas we would be lucky to get 90 games a year at 3B out of Donaldson. The offense gets much better it shortstop while there may be a small downgrade at 3rd base but again, not huge given that you're only getting 80-120 games out of Donaldson even if he DHs a good part of the year. On balance, I do think it's a small downgrade because of the shortstop defense but I don't think it's a very big downgrade.

The point of this is not that the Twins should pocket the $25 million a year they just saved by moving Donaldson's contract. My thinking is we should spend that money but I don't think we have to spend it all on a shortstop like Story. I think it would be just as smart to trade for a guy like Sean Maneaa, Frankie Montas, Tyler Mahle, or Luis Castillo, and then use the money to extend their contracts out at 15 – $20 million a year for 2 or 3 years. As far as SS goes, Jonathan Villar is still available for that stopgap role. Another way to look at this would be to basically trade Donaldson's contract for a combination of Villar to play short, Pineda to pitch in the rotation, and a relief pitcher like Archie Bradley or Mychal Givens. Now maybe we have gotten better even if we don't sign Trevor Story. Add in a trade of prospects for Amneaa, Montas, Mahle or Castillo and I do think it's a viable strategy.

My thinking is there a lot of ways still to go make the team better for this year and beyond including signing Trevor Story or something like outlined above. If we do nothing more? Then I think it's time to get out the pitchforks and torches and storm the castle. I do have my torch handy, but I'm not going to light it for at least 2 or 3 weeks to see how the rest of this puzzle plays out.

 

[KBJ1]

So we sign Donaldson (when we should have signed an ace pitcher) and now have to trade one of the top Catchers in all of baseball just to unload Donaldson.

Doing the Yankees bidding for them.

At this point swapping Donaldson for Story doesnt really look appealing, based on his dramatically poorer #'s away from Coors Field.

Spend the money on quality bullpen arms (we are.going to need them with that rotation) and bring up Miranda, Lewis & Martin and pray.

Can Sanchez learn to catch and regain his hitting acumen? Another longshot.

There are fewer top defensive and top hitting catchers in baseball than there are top Ace pitchers. There is a reason why 9 out of 10 catchers bat 8th or 9th in every teams lineup. Giving away Garver to free up money would.only be worth it if you sign the next CY Young winner. 

Sadly it seems Royce Lewis can't hit, but spending 100M on Story to find out he cant hit either is not worth it.

[bean5302]

Story desperately wanted to get out of a poor performing team with little direction in a tough division and owners who are viewed as cheap. 

The Twins were a poor performing team with little direction in a division which looks to be tough for the foreseeable future and owners who are viewed as cheap.

I don't see the Twins spending the money. I don't see Story being interested in Minnesota.

[bean5302]

For a front office who consistently goes dumpster diving based on advanced metrics and projections... Donaldson looks like a 4-5 WAR player for this season if his luck returns to normal.

All his advanced metrics showed he hit the ball just as well and had the plate discipline he's always had. 

Donaldson was a panic salary dump.

[High heat]

I’m trying to to draw as much positivity as I can from this and way off but what if the salary move is to go to San Diego take on Hosmer and in return getting a young starter like Gore for someone like Rooker or Larnach.

[Rosterman]

What I found interesting was that the Yankees had Isiah on their radar. Somehow the Twins traded Garver for him. I'm sure the Rangers would've taken Sanchez, as I don't expect Garver to play nearly as many games in seasons to come behind the plate as...Sanchez could.

 

Did the Yankees just drop this bigtime?

 

Because it allowed the Twins to grab a Yankee want, and to combine it with...Donaldson and his BIG contract. Suddenly the trade sounds alot better, a shortstop and an aging third baseman going to the Yankees, rather than the Twins basically swapping catchers with the Yankees. 

 

But that is basically what they did...swapped Garver for Sanchez, for some reason the Yankees wanted Rortvedt (shades of John Ryan Murphy via Drew Butera for backup strength). For dumping a salary like Donaldson's, you probably should be lucky to get a prospect or two back, but the Twins got a third baseman to replace Donaldson for the moment. Are they thinking of Gio as a shortstop? Where does that put Miranda in the scheme of things - left field or back in AAA for another season? (I still think Beckham will be the Twins starting shortstop, promised a million+ if he makes he team...only reason he signed a minor deal was because that was what was available during the lockout).

 

Sanchez can catch. Not the best, but he can catch. We still have the logjam of rally killing in the lineup of Sano, so I would hate to see Sanchez and Sano play on the same day. But both him and Gio, if they have decent years, could be tradebait if the Twins don't survive the spring.

But, yeah...all future points pointed towards Jeffers and Rortvedt sharing the catching duties for the next 4-6 years, with hopeful improvements from both, until the Twins draft or develop someone in the minors.

 

You almost wish Tomas Tellis was still around, he who made thed 26-man because of COVID bu

t didn't play. Instead we have David Banuelos (24), Steve Berman (26) and Caleb Hamilton (26) as the big three at the top levels, with Roy Morales (26) thrown in the mis as a good bat but bad plate guy. 

 

In the system the Twins have Jair Camargo, who has been around for a while and has some promise, but still two years away, Also Jefferson Morales and the versatile Alex Isola. Charlie Mack and Pat Winkel are promising signees. Oh, and I almost forgot Kyle Schmidt! Who seems to be the roving catcher in the system whenever someone goes down for a short stretch!

 

Now they are up Schitt's creek if something happens to one, elt alone both, or the guys. Makes you almost wish for Willians Astudillo as that 26th man on the roster.

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Story desperately wanted to get out of a poor performing team with little direction in a tough division and owners who are viewed as cheap. 

The Twins were a poor performing team with little direction in a division which looks to be tough for the foreseeable future and owners who are viewed as cheap.

I don't see the Twins spending the money. I don't see Story being interested in Minnesota.

The twins literally won the division two years in a row, and had their highest payrolls (league median) the last few years. They aren't comparable to CO at all. Not even close. Not even a little close. 

One team in this division is projected to be over .500 this year. That's not comparable to the NL West at all. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, High heat said:

I’m trying to to draw as much positivity as I can from this and way off but what if the salary move is to go to San Diego take on Hosmer and in return getting a young starter like Gore for someone like Rooker or Larnach.

Gore hasn't been able to throw strikes for three years. I'd deal Larnach straight up for just him....but I'd not take Hosmer. No way.

[KirbyDome89]

Donaldson's contract wasn't a hindrance; we need to move past that notion. Even after acquiring Gray the Twins were still roughly $40M short of payroll for Opening Day last season. 

[bean5302]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

The twins literally won the division two years in a row, and had their highest payrolls (league median) the last few years. They aren't comparable to CO at all. Not even close. Not even a little close. 

One team in this division is projected to be over .500 this year. That's not comparable to the NL West at all. 

If you wish hard enough, anything is true. Put the Twins in the NL West and their 2019 team would have finished .500, at best.

Rockies vs. Twins
2021 = $104MM vs. $121MM
2020 = $60MM vs. $49MM
2019 = $145MM vs. $113MM
2018 = $141MM vs. $131MM

The 2022 predictions depend greatly on your source. BR predicted 3 over .500 teams in the AL Central this year. The White Sox are going to be very strong. I expect the Tigers to be a tough team as well.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2949927-way-too-early-predictions-for-the-2022-mlb-playoffs-and-world-series

 

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, bighat said:

Good grief. If the Twins would've kept him, as soon as Donaldson pulled a calf muscle this year everyone would be sitting here complaining that the Twins didn't get rid of him when they could have.

People were complaining about him last year while he was posting a 127 OPS+ too. 

[Minny505]

1 hour ago, wavedog said:

Personally I would rather not overpay for Story in $ or years - I just don't see him as a Franchise type player to be the face of the franchise with a big contract.  Since we have payroll flexibility I would rather see us swallow a bad 1 or 2 year contract in return for getting some additional players with longer term value and not surrendering any of our top prospects.   Looking like this year is about player development and evaluation and maybe we can make a better push next year.           

Go take a look at the leaderboard on Fangraphs or B-Ref for SS since 2016. Try it since 2017. Since 2018. Since 2019. He has essentially matched Correa and Seager in WAR for any of those cumulative time periods.

The only reason he is not valued as highly this offseason is that he is older than both by roughly 2 years.

That said, Story is worth nearly the same AAV as those guys, but should get a pact that is a 2-3 years less. If he can be had for something like 150/6, that is a steal compared to those other SS who will sign for much more while bringing only slightly more value.

[Minny505]

2 hours ago, roger said:

One cannot read any posting here and elsewhere without seeing Story's name mentioned in probably more than half of the comments.  I ask, what is the love affair with Story?  The numbers I have seen indicate he is average to mediocre away from Coors Field.  If that is true, why would the Twins want to tie themselves to a contract both bigger and longer than Donaldson's?  I just don't understand the love affair many of you have with this guy and hope like heck the Twins don't sign him.  

Why are you concerned about home/road splits?

The same has been said by fans for pretty much every hitter that left Coors over the last 15 years, while those hitters went on to produced at essentially the same level, with more players producing at a higher level than a lower level, post-Rockies career. 

I really thought this Coors splits concern voiced by fans was put to bed about 5 years ago with all the studies that have come out debunking it. It's evident that front offices have.

[SwainZag]

29 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

For a front office who consistently goes dumpster diving based on advanced metrics and projections... Donaldson looks like a 4-5 WAR player for this season if his luck returns to normal.

All his advanced metrics showed he hit the ball just as well and had the plate discipline he's always had. 

Donaldson was a panic salary dump.

He also have been very injury prone and his defense has taken a big step back.  His advanced metrics are based upon him being on the field 90% of the time.  If you could guarantee that then yeah he would probably be worth keeping, but that's a huge if right now.

[Prince William]

Four things people know after this trade.

Jim Pohlad learned his lessons well from his father. The team lost money, so a Pohlad will pinch the pennies.

Money analytics will override baseball analytics

Bill Smith trades do not look as bad in hindsight., In a couple of years the fan base will really gnash their teeth.

There will be many people who hope Yogi Berra was right. It is not over until it is over. Let the trading season be ongoing

 

[Dman]

49 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Donaldson's contract wasn't a hindrance; we need to move past that notion. Even after acquiring Gray the Twins were still roughly $40M short of payroll for Opening Day last season. 

And remember they sloughed off another 10M or so with the trades they made at the deadline so they never had to spend all that opening day money in the end anyway.

[Prince William]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Gore hasn't been able to throw strikes for three years. I'd deal Larnach straight up for just him....but I'd not take Hosmer. No way.

Gore has had a prospect ranking lower than his age. For not being able to throw strikes an awful lot of people must be missing something that you see

[Original_JB]

1 hour ago, Minny505 said:

Why are you concerned about home/road splits?

The same has been said by fans for pretty much every hitter that left Coors over the last 15 years, while those hitters went on to produced at essentially the same level, with more players producing at a higher level than a lower level, post-Rockies career. 

I really thought this Coors splits concern voiced by fans was put to bed about 5 years ago with all the studies that have come out debunking it. It's evident that front offices have.

Michael Cuddyer:

In Minn

.272

.343

.451

.794

 

In Col

.307

.362

.525

.886

In NYM (granted last year in MLB) 

.259

.309

.391

.699

[bighat]

3 hours ago, wavedog said:

Personally I would rather not overpay for Story in $ or years - I just don't see him as a Franchise type player to be the face of the franchise with a big contract.  Since we have payroll flexibility I would rather see us swallow a bad 1 or 2 year contract in return for getting some additional players with longer term value and not surrendering any of our top prospects.   Looking like this year is about player development and evaluation and maybe we can make a better push next year.           

I agree.

I'm not sure how dropping $160 Million on a 5-year contract for a guy like Story - who is 29 years old and has played half his games in Coors Field for his entire career - helps the Twins. Even worse, maybe they give him a 7 or 8 year deal.

Sure wish they'd have spent that money on pitching, but that ship has sailed.

[Minny505]

18 minutes ago, Original_JB said:

Michael Cuddyer:

In Minn

.272

.343

.451

.794

 

In Col

.307

.362

.525

.886

In NYM (granted last year in MLB) 

.259

.309

.391

.699

Good singular data point using a player that hangs it up after one year ?

Try these out:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-rockies-have-their-worst-coors-field-hangover-yet/

https://www.draysbay.com/2016/1/29/10868328/coors-field-hitters-corey-dickerson-analysis

http://mets360.com/?p=41757

Now, after reading thru these studies again, I'm even more bullish. The post-Rockies career average improvement is pretty awesome. Let's get him!!

[goliath]

By shedding catchers, I believe the FO's vision is to give Hank Conger every opportunity to be the opening day starting catcher.

[TwinsChupacabra]

An earlier posted said "I mean no disrespect to any front office, they are all better at what they do than us mere mortals making comments about what they are doing."

At this point, I really have to disagree.  The percentage of diehard Twins fans that would call the current front office CLUELESS, it growing by the day.