Twins Trade Donaldson, Kiner-Falefa to Yankees for Sanchez, Urshela

[RpR]

Just now, TheLeviathan said:

You have demonstrated no capacity or willingness to have a nuanced discussion of statistics.  You should basically just stop using them until you change that course of action.  These posts are disingenuous, you have no interest in actually analyzing any of this data.  Only cherry-picking.  I'm not interested in that kind of windmill chasing.

No I showed your statement was bollocks and you do not like it, que sera, sera.

[RpR]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

The three defensive rating systems disagree about his ability......I'd look at all three to figure it out. One says good, one says average, one says bad. That's kind of amazing, really.

Well you can also look at this this way comparing the same three years for Donaldson to Urshela; Donaldson put up these numbers in his mid-thirties; Urshela put up these numbers in his late twenties.

Now compare Donaldson numbers in his late twenties to Urshela in his late twenties, this is a losing proposition.

[KirbyDome89]

3 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Except Donaldson is 35.  When the wall hits, it's going to hit pretty hard.  Especially for a player like Donaldson who has so much value wrapped up in defense.  I readily admit, a big reason I'm leaning positive on this trade is that I think we're wisely getting out early on a guy that is going to look like a 25M albatross.

Where I hesitate is seeing how that money gets used.  

Sure, if he falls apart early this season it looks smart. If he posts another high OPS+ and slows down next year, eh it's probably at a wash, assuming Urshela's 2021 is an aberration. I guess I'm just less certain this is the year Donaldson stops mashing baseballs. 

All Twins fans should feel this way. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

That's 30 games a year.......Want to bet who puts up more WAR the next year? 

I already bet on Garver (I said he was a little better). I assume you're taking Sanchez?

[TheLeviathan]

4 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Sure, if he falls apart early this season it looks smart. If he posts another high OPS+ and slows down next year, eh it's probably at a wash, assuming Urshela's 2021 is an aberration. I guess I'm just less certain this is the year Donaldson stops mashing baseballs. 

All Twins fans should feel this way. 

100% agree that this swing could go completely wrong for the team.  I guess I just see the upside.  Which, IMO, exists even if they do nothing with the money.  There is a perfectly plausible scenario where we get 130 OPS+ Urshela and Sanchez returns to form while Donaldson's calf muscles go bonkers again.  We win this trade in that very possible scenario.  Of course, Urshela could be the 2021 version, Sanchez is a mediocre DH, and Donaldson has two years left in the tank (also perfectly plausible) and we lose this trade.

What ultimately makes the difference is if we use that 15M we just freed up, along with the already existing budget room we had, to go splash with a trade and Trevor Story.  Then that upside possibility is gravy.

So I'm in wait and see mode, just pushing back that this move is an automatic failure.

[KirbyDome89]

11 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

What ultimately makes the difference is if we use that 15M we just freed up, along with the already existing budget room we had, to go splash with a trade and Trevor Story.  Then that upside possibility is gravy.

So I'm in wait and see mode, just pushing back that this move is an automatic failure.

My fear is that it won't be utilized. I can absolutely see a scenario where 15M is spent and spun as necessary for whatever transpires, but payroll trends in the wrong direction. I don't view the NY trade as necessary for whatever hypothetical signing occurs at SS. 

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

I collected the current 2022 Fangraphs projections for the players we've acquired and/or sent away the past few days. Because of all the variables, I don't know quite what to make of it yet, but here it is:

 

Player	PA or IP	fWAR	Salary
Donaldson	581	3.5	$21
Kiner-Falefa	546	2.1	~$4.9
Rortvedt	326	1.5	$0.7
Urshela	539	2.0	$6.55
Sanchez	384	1.2	~$7.9
Gray	160	2.4	$10.7
Garver	497	2.6	$3.1

FWIW, Trevor Story currently projects for 644 PA and 4.5 WAR, at an estimated salary of $21-25 mil.

 

Rortvedt seems a little high on WAR don't you think? and can Donaldson and Garver stay that healthy?

so its 9.7 WAR for 5.6 WAR + Story at 4.5 = 10.1 WAR and salary traded = 29.7 million and new money = lets go with 22 for story and 25.15 = 47.15 million.  

[dxpavelka]

19 hours ago, Lasorda_This_Out said:

Sanchez will never wear a Twins uniform in the Regular Season?

He'll be the regular DH. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

12 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Rortvedt seems a little high on WAR don't you think? and can Donaldson and Garver stay that healthy?

Yeah, there are definitely a lot of variables, which is why I didn't attempt to analyze. But I couldn't let a spreadsheet go to waste!

[Hheimer]

Would be curious to see seth's projected roster now and two days from now. 

[bean5302]

Well, when it's all said and done, you have to play the games so who really knows, but it seems to be both Garver and Donaldson are probably underrated.

Garver, Rortvedt and Donaldson's projections show they're expected to produce quite a bit more than Gray, Sanchez and Urshela so in terms of on the field projections, the Twins are worse than they were, but the killer is they lost Petty along with it. They're worse on paper, they don't have any additional team control over players and they lost one of their top prospects.

[wabene]

6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Yes and I think the twins are willing to go there.  All of the other stuff points to them having this in hand.  I think they already have a deal or they would not have moved IKF.   I don't have any inside information but that's sure the way it looks. 

I hope this post ages well.

[USAFChief]

6 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

100% agree that this swing could go completely wrong for the team.  I guess I just see the upside.  Which, IMO, exists even if they do nothing with the money.  There is a perfectly plausible scenario where we get 130 OPS+ Urshela and Sanchez returns to form while Donaldson's calf muscles go bonkers again.  We win this trade in that very possible scenario.  Of course, Urshela could be the 2021 version, Sanchez is a mediocre DH, and Donaldson has two years left in the tank (also perfectly plausible) and we lose this trade.

What ultimately makes the difference is if we use that 15M we just freed up, along with the already existing budget room we had, to go splash with a trade and Trevor Story.  Then that upside possibility is gravy.

So I'm in wait and see mode, just pushing back that this move is an automatic failure.

The trade wasn't Donaldson for Urshela and Sanchez. The Twins also gave up the SS they spent Garver to acquire plus their backup catcher. 

 

And just Donaldson was an overpay.

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, USAFChief said:

The trade wasn't Donaldson for Urshela and Sanchez. The Twins also gave up the SS they spent Garver to acquire plus their backup catcher. 

 

And just Donaldson was an overpay.

Donaldson had negative trade value so this can't possibly be true.  The trade favored the Yankees because of that negative trade value.  However, you are failing to recognize the $20M/AAV saved.  Therefore, if they sign Story, it would be fair to say this the two trades netted Garver / Donaldson / Rortvedt for Story / Urshela / Sanchez and Henriquez.  If they don't sign Story or something similar it's a different story, pun intended.

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Donaldson had negative trade value so this can't possibly be true.  The trade favored the Yankees because of that negative trade value.  However, you are failing to recognize the $20M/AAV saved.  Therefore, if they sign Story, it would be fair to say this the two trades netted Garver / Donaldson / Rortvedt for Story / Urshela / Sanchez and Henriquez. 

I've said just about enough on this topic. I think most of us have. BUT ... this would not be fair to say, no. Just no.

Story is a free agent, and could have been signed without losing Kiner-Falefa, Donaldson or Rortvedt. The Twins certainly have plenty of salary room for him, and Donaldson's remaining two years were not standing in the way. In fact, the Twins have very little by way of long-term contract commitments. We've got to stop accepting this silly salary dump trade as some kind of rationale that we can finally sign a top-tier free agent this offseason.

If a guy has negative trade value ... don't trade him. Why would you ever pay another team to take a superstar off of your hands, particularly if his contract wasn't hurting you? If Donaldson's not injured, he'll play and he'll earn his contract. If he's injured, you hand 3B over to Miranda.

[USAFChief]

8 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

I've said just about enough on this topic. I think most of us have. BUT ... this would not be fair to say, no. Just no.

Story is a free agent, and could have been signed without losing Kiner-Falefa, Donaldson or Rortvedt. The Twins certainly have plenty of salary room for him, and Donaldson's remaining two years were not standing in the way. In fact, the Twins have very little by way of long-term contract commitments. We've got to stop accepting this silly salary dump trade as some kind of rationale that we can finally sign a top-tier free agent this offseason.

If a guy has negative trade value ... don't trade him. Why would you ever pay another team to take a superstar off of your hands, particularly if his contract wasn't hurting you? If Donaldson's not injured, he'll play and he'll earn his contract. If he's injured, you hand 3B over to Miranda.

Concur. I don't understand how someone gets joy from watching ownership pocket more cash.

I want to watch the Twins win. 

[cHawk]

Just now, USAFChief said:

Concur. I don't understand how someone gets joy from watching ownership pocket more cash.

I want to watch the Twins win. 

Do we know for sure that they’re just pocketing the cash and not reallocating it?

[USAFChief]

Just now, cHawk said:

Do we know for sure that they’re just pocketing the cash and not reallocating it?

They don't have Donaldson, and could have had both Donaldson and Story. According to Nick the whole idea was to shed Donaldson's contract.

 

So yeah, that's pocketing money. 

I guess if they sign Correa I might be talked into the fantasy they "reallocated" the Donaldson money. But even that's a stretch. 

[cHawk]

9 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

They don't have Donaldson, and could have had both Donaldson and Story. According to Nick the whole idea was to shed Donaldson's contract.

 

So yeah, that's pocketing money. 

I guess if they sign Correa I might be talked into the fantasy they "reallocated" the Donaldson money. But even that's a stretch. 

I was thinking it was to make room for a pitcher that they would acquire via trade.

[USAFChief]

26 minutes ago, cHawk said:

I was thinking it was to make room for a pitcher that they would acquire via trade.

Why would they need to trade Donaldson to acquire a pitcher by trade? Not to mention...who? Who are they trading for that requires $25m per year? Who would even be available? Scherzer isn't for sale. 

Again...you're simply arguing from a standpoint of Pohlad's bottom line, rather than winning baseball games.

Why? What reason do we have to support ownership making even MORE money?

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Why would they need to trade Donaldson to acquire a pitcher by trade? Not to mention...who? Who are they trading for that requires $25m per year? Who would even be available? Scherzer isn't for sale. 

Again...you're simply arguing from a standpoint of Pohlad's bottom line, rather than winning baseball games.

Why? What reason do we have to support ownership making even MORE money?

Weren't you the guy saying the players should take MLB's first, crappy, offer? The one that would have given them less money, and therefore owners more money?

[cHawk]

7 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Why would they need to trade Donaldson to acquire a pitcher by trade? Not to mention...who? Who are they trading for that requires $25m per year? Who would even be available? Scherzer isn't for sale. 

Again...you're simply arguing from a standpoint of Pohlad's bottom line, rather than winning baseball games.

Why? What reason do we have to support ownership making even MORE money?

Ok fine…yeah, I didn’t think that one through.

They may really believe in Jose Miranda. But if that’s the case, they really sold low on Donaldson (as in they didn’t get much back for him).

IDK. Maybe they’ll spend $40M in free agency over the next few days, maybe they won’t.

[USAFChief]

15 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Weren't you the guy saying the players should take MLB's first, crappy, offer? The one that would have given them less money, and therefore owners more money?

I don't think these are even remotely related, Mike, and neither do you. 

I wanted owners to break the union, because that would be good for baseball. I don't want owners to pocket money. I want owners to compete for championshipships.

[SwainZag]

14 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Well, when it's all said and done, you have to play the games so who really knows, but it seems to be both Garver and Donaldson are probably underrated.

Garver, Rortvedt and Donaldson's projections show they're expected to produce quite a bit more than Gray, Sanchez and Urshela so in terms of on the field projections, the Twins are worse than they were, but the killer is they lost Petty along with it. They're worse on paper, they don't have any additional team control over players and they lost one of their top prospects.

Those projections also have Donaldson getting 600 PA and Garver getting 500.  If both stay very healthy then yes they are attainable, but both players have missed a lot of time over the last few seasons.  Josh did get 543 PA last season, but how much of the season did he play hurt? 

[Heistyman]

I see some complaints on Sanchez & Sano striking out alot.....take a look at Story.  He has led the league in that category.  I just hate seeing a third of the line-up pacing between the dugout and home all day.  Don't get me wrong on Story he's much better than anything we've trotted out to the 6 hole in many many years.  But it could be a very streaky team waiting on the longball.

[jimbo92107]

On 3/14/2022 at 10:05 AM, Mike Sixel said:

I'll take the under on that...

My Rortvedt guess is based entirely on the few times he did actually barrel up a pitch. The ball jumped out of the park like it had been tased. 

What I think the Yankees saw was an excellent defensive catcher that just might develop into a power hitter. They will not tone down his swing. Instead, they will work him on reading pitchers better, then swing for the fences like a good Yankee. 

[specialiststeve]

On 3/13/2022 at 9:50 PM, BD57 said:

So, basically, Garver & Donaldson for Sanchez .... 

don't know how this makes us better.

For Correa... it makes us better.. have faith gentlemen

[TheLeviathan]

Some sweet, sweet vindication in here for some of us. 

[Rosterman]

I would trade Donaldson for Correa anyday. Sure, costs us $10 million more. And Garver and Rortvedt for Sanchez and Gio and a pitching prospect? Third string catchers are a dime a dozen, and the Twins could've still searched out Drew Butera if they wanted experience.

 

What strikes me as savvy is the Twins getting the cheaper shortstop the Yankees wanted, then apckaging him into a salary dump with the rich Yankees so they could lessen the market for Correa getting a big longterm payday.