Yes, the Twins Plan to Compete in 2022

[Nash Walker]

Twins Territory held mixed feelings when the team traded fan favorite Mitch Garver to the Texas Rangers in exchange for Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Was the team signaling a rebuild in 2022? The front office disputed that less than 24 hours later. 

The addition of Sonny Gray is enough to convince even the most skeptical fan that the Twins are looking to compete in 2022. It’s the right plan and one I’ve been screaming for all offseason. The Twins have the offensive pieces in place to score plenty of runs, and while inexperienced, there’s plenty to like about Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. 

After the team traded José Berríos to the Blue Jays and followed that by signing approximately zero impact starters before the lockout, many (myself included) wondered if there was a punt coming. All signs pointed toward a weak effort this offseason. 

There’s no award for compiling the prettiest roster before Opening Day. The San Diego Padres, after trading for Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Joe Musgrove, looked like a powerhouse heading into the 2021 season. They won 79 games and fired manager Jayce Tingler, now the bench coach for the Twins. 

Conversely, the San Francisco Giants were an afterthought in the same division and won 107 games in a truly magnificent season. This is baseball. A team can look outstanding on paper and disappoint. Similarly, a team can look uninspiring on paper and exceed even the most optimistic expectations. 

There is, however, a fine line between a sleeper and a non-competitor. It’s doubtful the Baltimore Orioles will shock the world and have a winning season. You must have at least some talent, proper roster construction, and, most importantly, performance. My argument has been: the Twins have the bare-bones pieces to build around for this season. 

There’s a misconception that the Twins can’t conceivably invest in 2022 without hurting the future, specifically 2023 when they should see a plethora of top prospects emerge. What if I told you that they could accomplish both goals with the right moves? By trading Chase Petty, who likely isn't in the Major League plans until at least 2024, the Twins thread that needle. 

Jorge Polanco is coming off a terrific season and remains one of the more underrated players in MLB. A healthy Byron Buxton is a complete game-changer for the Twins, as is Josh Donaldson. Luis Arraez is an excellent leadoff hitter, and there’s massive offensive upside within Miguel Sanó. Not to mention the potential emergences of Alex Kirilloff, José Miranda, Ryan Jeffers, and or Trevor Larnach. This offense can bang. 

What the Twins so desperately need is a competent enough pitching staff. A staff that can support a potentially excellent lineup and helps the team make noise. There’s no excuse not to be in the race with an expanded playoff field as the calendar flips to August. That should be the expectation. 

By acquiring Gray, the Twins are signaling a plan. They have a lot of work left to do, but we’re starting to see the blueprint unfold. They are investing in the 2022 team, and rightly so. Stay tuned. 

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[KirbyHawk75]

Need to get another pitcher and not a bargain free agent if they want to compete IMO.  

[Karbo]

I agree that Gray is a good step in the right direction. I still have mixed feelings about the trade for IKF. Time will tell if Jeffers can hit well enough or if we'll be looking for a catcher come July. We still need more pitching for the rotation and the pen. I'm surprised they didn't go after Kikuchi from Seattle. I saw he signed for like 12.5 mil a year for 2 years I think? Why not take a flyer on someone like that? Long ways to go before I would say this team is really to be taken serious as a playoff threat, so lets see if this FO can pull off any other moves that matter.

[Brandon]

I question the lineup at this point.  Let’s see though.  
 

DH Sano

1B Killeroff

2B Polanco

SS Felafa

3B Donaldson

RF Kepler

CF Buxton

LF Rooker or Larnarch or Miranda?

C Jeffers 

ok if Jeffers can OPS over .750 and Falefa can get over .700 I will feel better and someone needs to win LF and run with it. 
we could use at least 1 more starter.  Maybe a pen arm.  

[The Mad King]

I'd like to see them bring back Big Mike. Granted it's hard watching him fidget and fiddle for a week and a half between pitches, but the end results are usually good. 

And thanks for another optimistic column. You have to believe in your team!

[Ryan_K]

If we can get Tepara or McHugh on a one year deal for less than 8 million, I'd like our bullpen a lot more. Add in Pineada on a 1 year 10 million contract and we might sneak into the third WC spot.

[jmlease1]

7 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I question the lineup at this point.  Let’s see though.  
 

DH Sano

1B Killeroff

2B Polanco

SS Felafa

3B Donaldson

RF Kepler

CF Buxton

LF Rooker or Larnarch or Miranda?

C Jeffers 

ok if Jeffers can OPS over .750 and Falefa can get over .700 I will feel better and someone needs to win LF and run with it. 
we could use at least 1 more starter.  Maybe a pen arm.  

As things stand, it's more likely to look like:

1B: Sano, 2B: Polanco, 3B: Donaldson, SS: Kiner-Felefa, C : Jeffers, RF: Kepler, CF: Buxton, LF: Kirilloff, DH: Arraez

Basically, you've got 1 guy who can't really hit in Kiner-Falefa (But puts the ball in play enough to not be a free out), and 1 guy who the jury is still out on in Jeffers. Kepler is the next worst hitter, and he has 25 HR power. Then it's Arraez, who could contend for a batting title if a) he gets enough ABs and b) if his knees don't ruin him. Kirilloff showed me enough that if he's healthy he's going to be really dangerous. Sano is capable of carrying the team for weeks (and having bad slumps) but even with his messy year, he still had a 112 OPS+. Polanco, Buxton, and Donaldson are terrific. The lineup can contend. It's why a lot of us didn't want them to punt on the season.

They still need one more starter...but if we can land Pineda, I feel pretty good about the rotation: Gray, Pineda, Ober, Ryan, Bundy with Dobnak, Duran, and Winder as the next men up and Balazovic, Sands, Canterino, and Woods-Richardson coming in behind them (I'm not a believer in Strotman, but maybe I'll be wrong). Maeda might be back before the end of the season.

They'll need to be healthier than last season (although Donaldson did fine once the season got going) and they'll need for every single free agent/trade decision to not crap out this time...but the odds are better.

[Bradfoot]

Our opportunity for success is tied to Buxton's health and production.  Even another solid pitching pickup won't change that.   It would go a long way if our young guys all collectively took a big step forward (Kirrilloff, Larnach, Ober, Joe Ryan, etc.).  

 

I'm keeping my expectations in check a little bit but hoping we are within shouting distance of that shiny new 3rd wild card spot.  It feels like everything has to go exactly right for us this year (health, development, bouncebacks, repeating the few breakouts from last year).  Meanwhile, the White Sox are an obvious World Series contender that can easily weather a couple key injuries again.

 

Only one of the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, and Blue Jays can win their division.  Then you have the Astros, Mariners, Angels, possibly the Rangers in the West.  Competition will be stiff even with an additional seed.

[Danchat]

I suppose it depends on how you classify 'contending', but this is the Falvine formula - wait out the FA deals for the bargains, and then make a few trades and a couple extensions if possible. That's how they roll, for better or for worse. They do love their late-offseason additions, and I expect a few more in the coming weeks.

[TopGunn#22]

Health is ALWAYS a major consideration.  Especially with guys like Buxton, Polanco and Donaldson being such keys.  You can even include Arraez in that list if he isn't traded.  But I've been saying for months, we play in the A.L. Central (it's not the same as playing in the N.L. West).  MLB has expanded the playoffs.  And despite last years debacle, they had won two straight Division Championships and still have a core that could compete.  Plugging the SS hole with Kiner-Falefa (who is NOT a BAD hitter, just not a 25 HR SS) and getting Sonny Gray are very good moves.  At this point, I'm trading Arraez for pitching and playing Miranda in LF (after what he did in AAA he should be moved ahead of Rooker & Larnach) and Kiriloff is my First-Baseman.  That's a lineup that can score runs.  keep building the pitching staff for 2022 and beyond.  

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks Nash, I've never given up on this core. If we trade for Montas and finally get a true CF back up, we could surprise a lot of people, especially if we put together a strong long relief core to support SP and short relief. If I was a betting man I'd put my $ on the Twins. 

[twins_89]

As of today I don't see the Twins having enough pitching to make the playoffs. About the only way I see the playoffs happening with the current roster is if Gray has a great year, Bundy pitches a full year at his 2020 level, Ryan/Ober both take a step forward, and at least one of Balazovic/Woods-Richardson/Duran have a huge breakout year. I am very skeptical that we'll see enough of those things to get the Twins into the top 6 teams in the American league.

Maybe there will be additional signings/trades to bolster the pitching staff, but unless something fairly significant happens we are not a playoff team.

[Danchat]

Never mind what I said earlier, I have no idea what the heck this trade with the Yankees is all about. I was convinced Donaldson wasn't getting moved, but it seems they're eager to shed payroll... yup, add me to the "what the heck is going on" group!

[RpR]

Last year will look good after these trades.

[Reptevia]

Well, this didn’t age well, as they just traded away our starting 3b and Ss as well as our backup catcher. To be fair, they may not be done…

[h2oface]

"The addition of Sonny Gray is enough to convince even the most skeptical fan that the Twins are looking to compete in 2022."

I, for one, do not expect a lot out of a fading Gray. He is a starting pitcher, though. A dreaded "innings eater" at this point. Hope the team hits when he is on the mound. And then there was the trade with the Yankees......... even less convinced. 

[cHawk]

2 hours ago, h2oface said:

"The addition of Sonny Gray is enough to convince even the most skeptical fan that the Twins are looking to compete in 2022."

I, for one, do not expect a lot out of a fading Gray. He is a starting pitcher, though. A dreaded "innings eater" at this point. Hope the team hits when he is on the mound. And then there was the trade with the Yankees......... even less convinced. 

Gray is aging, but he’s still a good pitcher. I don’t think he’ll be as good as he was in 2019, but he still has been solid. Here are his 2021 Baseball Savant rankings:

Hardly an “innings eater”