Twins Acquire RHP Sonny Gray from Reds for Chase Petty

[roger]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Honestly, I don't know what to make of this trade. Reports on Petty were glowing, but reports on prospects like Petty almost always are and we have no real competitive play to judge.

If the reports on Petty aren't overblown, he could be pitching as an ace at the MLB level in two years. More akin to what Gray was... rather than what he is today as Gray has trended downwards (and lost significant velocity). Petty was the first pitcher drafted by Falvey where I was becoming legitimately excited about him. My initial perception was raw hard "thrower" so I wasn't on board the Petty is an ace train. However, the reports made Petty seem like a natural pitcher who had just never needed to use his other pitches because of the elite velocity.

At this point, Gray is probably a 2.0-3.0 WAR mid/back rotation starter so trading Petty could be a colossal mistake. A good front office will never, ever give up a potentially elite prospect for middle of the road, short term MLB talent. 

What I want from this franchise is direction. The Garver trade does not make the Twins better this year in my opinion, and it doesn't really make them better in the future as Garver was controlled just as long as Kiner-Falefa. I'm not bullish on Jeffers at all and I'm awfully skeptical the difference between Kiner-Falefa and Palacios (who has earned a shot in my opinion) at shortstop is more than 1 WAR. The difference between Garver and Jeffers at catcher is probably 3 WAR and I don't view Gray as anything but an average starter the Twins could have signed.

The Twins might be filling holes for this season, but they're not a competitive team without massive ifs being resolved. 

There isn’t much difference between K-F and Palacios?  Seriously?  A year ago K-F was coming off a gold glove year at third base, whereas Tampa had released Palacios.  K-F started all year for Texas while Palacios was a pleasant surprise in AA.  We don’t know if Palacios will ever make those next two leaps to even get to the “show.”  

[Otto von Ballpark]

12 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Why risk a top SP prospect for just-above-mediocre SP services that could have easily been purchased in free agency?

Just above mediocre? Gray's WAA (Wins Above Average) ranked 30th among all MLB pitchers last year. He ranked 6th by that measure in 2019. Gray's WAA has been higher than that of Berrios in each of the last 3 seasons.

[Wax off]

Why the fans of these trades aren't asking themselves why they couldn't have just been active in free agency rather than have to give up players or prospects. Is it the goal of this FO to only trade for pitching and NEVER just sign a good pitcher out of free agency?

I hope Petty isn't in the Majors by age 21. And I hope he isn't a Cy Young award winner by age 25. Otherwise this will end up a horrible trade. It will be a bad trade anyway if the Twins don't win a playoff game in the next 2 years, no?

The Twins are in desperation mode. They just traded away Garver and Petty because they sat on their hands during FA.

Out of reluctance they signed Buxton. They would've traded him if he hadn't been injured. The sweet deal we signed Buxton to, they had previously walked away from at the deadline.

I'm done with this FO. FIRE FALVINE!!!!

[Rigby]

2 hours ago, Chachi said:

What if we just gave up the next Willie Banks??

Or John Smoltz??

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I'm dead serious with Florimon. He's was a super elite defensive shortstop who couldn't hit. He's been on MiLB contracts for the last several years. You want to quote Baseball Reference, that's fine. My issue with bWAR is I consider it kinda junk for defensive premium positions because of the shift and the fact bWAR doesn't account for it resulting in the potential to dramatically inflate actual value.

Fangraphs, which uses a metric which does attempt to account for the shift (UZR) is 2.3 fWAR for Isiah Kiner-Falefa, which is barely holding his own for starting player and he played in 158 games last year. The Texas Rangers thought so much of him and his cheap, team controlled contract that they went out and signed two shortstops to replace him. Bottom line? Texas viewed Isiah Kiner-Falefa as a liability on a playoff caliber team or they wouldn't have been seeking to replace him.

Sonny Gray has lost velocity and trended downwards over the past few years and he had a great 2019 which skews the numbers (over the past 3 years). If you're expecting a return to 2019 form in a league with a DH, I think you're being unreasonably optimistic. 

Dude, Kiner-Falefa has a career wRC+ of 81 compared to Florimon's career 59. And Kiner-Falefa has been better than that recently, posting a 94 and 85 the past two seasons.

And if you like fWAR for defense, Florimon spent most years with a negative fWAR. Kiner-Falefa, as you pointed out, was over two wins last season.

Florimon and Kiner-Falefa aren't even in the same conversation of player quality. And I say that as someone who does not like yesterday's trade.

[Russ]

Maybe the trading chips weren't what the Rangers, the Reds or what other teams wanted.  It also appears the next wave of pitching talent is not ready to open the 2022 season and it also appears the Twins are not opening up their wallet

[Otto von Ballpark]

How would we feel about this trade if we were Reds fans?

The Reds aren't a great team, but they've been in the hunt the last 2 years. They have the reigning 2021 NL Rookie of the Year (Jonathan India), plus an elite prospect on the cusp of MLB (Hunter Greene). They don't have anyone significant who is in their walk year in 2022, and Joey Votto looks like he may have some baseball life left. And they were already an estimated $10 mil below their 2021 payroll, and $14 mil below 2019.

I think many of their fans would have wanted an immediate addition to the roster, and would be be frustrated that instead they shed further payroll in exchange for a guy that they passed on in the last draft (Reds picked 17th, Petty was chosen 26th), with no track record, who is at least 3-4 years away from contributing anything (if he contributes anything).

[kasotamatt]

I like it; get Big Mike, package a now expendable Arraez for another serviceable arm and let's try to win some 8-7 games!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 hours ago, twins_89 said:

I think the value is really good for the Twins, but I'm now very confused on the team's direction. Every move (or more accurately lack of moves) up to this point has been in the direction of the team not competing this year, so this is out of step with the rest of the off-season. By itself this doesn't get the starting rotation up to playoff caliber, so I'll be curious if there is a follow-up move to add another good starter.

Yeah, this is where I’m at too. Very confused.

my best guess is their budget is much lower than we anticipated and the FO is trying to compete without spending any money

[Hheimer]

I'm not sure if the past two trades will be good or bad, I dont have a crystal ball. But I do like seeing the FO  being aggressive in getting players they believe in. 

The defensive shift is going away in 2023 it's going to be important to have players up the middle to have some chops. 

We have 3 or 4 potential stud pitching propects coming the next two years. It's going to be important to have veterans on the pitching staff to be mentors and role models for the young guns. 

[cHawk]

2 hours ago, jud6312 said:

I dislike this move as much as I liked yesterday's. Sonny Gray, a likely 3 (or 2 if you squint really hard), is a guy a contender picks up to get them over the hump. I don't think this team is built to win this year and next year depends mostly on how the in-house going starters develop.

 

A young, potential high impact arm for one year of Gray in a non-competitive situation and another where they *might* contend does very little for me.

 

Now, if they go get an actual #1 and a few bullpen arms so they can actually content this year, then I can be convinced to not hate this move.

It’s technically two years of team control, since the contract has a ‘23 team option.

[Steve71]

I am very confused.  Are we actually trying to compete this year or not?  If we are, why the heck didn't we spend some money on front line FA starters? Those just cost us money, not prospects.

Now we are mortgaging our future for good starters with only 2 years of team control.  Bizarre.  I would be down for a move like this if we had Gray for 4 or 5 years, but he is gone in 2023, if we don't flip him earlier.

What is this front office doing?

[Otto von Ballpark]

11 minutes ago, Steve71 said:

I am very confused.  Are we actually trying to compete this year or not?  If we are, why the heck didn't we spend some money on front line FA starters? Those just cost us money, not prospects.

Those FA starters may have cost more, leaving less room for other additions, and/or been not as good in the team's eyes. I mean, there's a finite number of these guys -- it's possible the team liked Sonny Gray more than the comparably priced FA starters (Alex Cobb? Alex Wood? Yusei Kikuchi?).

[Otto von Ballpark]

16 minutes ago, Steve71 said:

Now we are mortgaging our future for good starters with only 2 years of team control.  Bizarre.  I would be down for a move like this if we had Gray for 4 or 5 years, but he is gone in 2023, if we don't flip him earlier.

Gray will be 34 years old after the 2023 season. He's not going to be difficult to retain on a short-term contract/extension, if we want him.

[Whitey333]

Very good move for the Twins.  Still need one or two more reliable starters.  Like many of you have said the twins probably won't be contending this year.  But at least it appears they may be trying to put a major league team on the field.  I certainly hope so.  I have no problem at all trading a prospect.  He may be great, he may never play in big leagues.  I see nothing wrong with trading a young unknown and inexperienced high school prospect for a proven major league starter.  Good job Twins!

[Danchat]

1 hour ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

How would we feel about this trade if we were Reds fans?

The Reds aren't a great team, but they've been in the hunt the last 2 years. They have the reigning 2021 NL Rookie of the Year (Jonathan India), plus an elite prospect on the cusp of MLB (Hunter Greene). They don't have anyone significant who is in their walk year in 2022, and Joey Votto looks like he may have some baseball life left. And they were already an estimated $10 mil below their 2021 payroll, and $14 mil below 2019.

I think many of their fans would have wanted an immediate addition to the roster, and would be be frustrated that instead they shed further payroll in exchange for a guy that they passed on in the last draft (Reds picked 17th, Petty was chosen 26th), with no track record, who is at least 3-4 years away from contributing anything (if he contributes anything).

They had time to brace for it since there were reports that they were going to roll back payroll, but just getting Petty is a pretty bad return for them IMO. There's a reason why the Reds fans are ticked off right now, since the earliest they can benefit from this trade is 2025.

[Minderbinder]

The odds any first-rounder will just play in the show is around 66 percent.  Maybe Petty will be a great pitcher, but with the stress on that arm, well let's just say they're perfecting TJ surgery.  Meanwhile, Gray will be around adding to WaR.

Garver may hit 60 HRs over the next couple years and get better at framing.  His SO rate may also hit 30%.  Meanwhile IKF will shore up the left side of the defense, smile and get his Covid shots if he must.  If he hits better than Simmons in this lineup and hands things off to Royce, that's all we need.

Cue the TD staff for a 2024 TD article entitled, "How did the Twins FO make out on those first two March 2022 post-strike trades."

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

How would we feel about this trade if we were Reds fans?

The Reds aren't a great team, but they've been in the hunt the last 2 years. They have the reigning 2021 NL Rookie of the Year (Jonathan India), plus an elite prospect on the cusp of MLB (Hunter Greene). They don't have anyone significant who is in their walk year in 2022, and Joey Votto looks like he may have some baseball life left. And they were already an estimated $10 mil below their 2021 payroll, and $14 mil below 2019.

I think many of their fans would have wanted an immediate addition to the roster, and would be be frustrated that instead they shed further payroll in exchange for a guy that they passed on in the last draft (Reds picked 17th, Petty was chosen 26th), with no track record, who is at least 3-4 years away from contributing anything (if he contributes anything).

Reds fans aren't happy. They're seeing a decent team get dismantled in the name of payroll and feeling like they're heading into another long rebuild. I had a Reds fan text me this morning begging for good news about Petty and was furious when I told him he wouldn't be in the majors until 2024 at the earliest (and has a high ceiling/high risk profile). So far the collective response to this deal from the Reds fans has been "Sell the team, Bob!"

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

4 hours ago, Game7-91 said:

I'm up with that.?

Surprised, didnt think the could trade Petty for a full year. But it  works. 3 yrs of  control Twins-esque contract. All good....

Does it work for you if the Twins only have 2 years pf control of Sonny Gray?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I like Sonny Gray but I like Chase Petty more. I am not a fan of this trade. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

10 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Reds fans aren't happy. They're seeing a decent team get dismantled in the name of payroll and feeling like they're heading into another long rebuild. I had a Reds fan text me this morning begging for good news about Petty and was furious when I told him he wouldn't be in the majors until 2024 at the earliest (and has a high ceiling/high risk profile). So far the collective response to this deal from the Reds fans has been "Sell the team, Bob!"

 

That's like I felt when the Twins traded Berrios.  WTH ?

[jud6312]

1 hour ago, cHawk said:

It’s technically two years of team control, since the contract has a ‘23 team option.

"one year of Gray in a non-competitive situation and another where they *might* contend does very little for me."

I acknowledged that it's two years.

 

 

[PDX Twin]

My Gray matter says that we need to get over our Petty concerns.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

4 hours ago, Doc Munson said:

This is a heart vs mind trade... my heart HATES IT!!!  my mind can justify it.

Prospects are suspects until proven otherwise., especially HS pitchers, but still... DANG!!!

I would be more of a fan if this was the move that would put us over the top vs just getting a SP when we need 2-3 of them.  I would be much more in favor if this was part of a bigger trade that would also get us Luis Castillo.

Doc, you hit the nail on the head for me. Heart vs. Head. Just several days ago I was raving about Petty on this website, after I had watched him pitch in practice at Fort Myers . He looked dominant.  Velocity, control and an incredible slider. But on the other hand, at my age, I need to shift to a win now focus anyway. For me Heart vs. Head also applies to the Garver trade. Garver was a favorite of mine, as were Berrios and Cruz. However I understood the Cruz trade, but not Berrios's trade.  I know we got good prospects in both of those trades, but Berrios is what the Twins needed today and tomorrow. I wanted him to be a career Twin. Berrios'  work ethic and success were outstanding and bode well for his future success. Anyhow, such is life in the business of baseball. Doc, your post helped me get calm after being so upset when I first read this Petty/Gray news. My wife asked me who died.? She said that all who read my posts would feel my anger since I was pounding the keys on my laptop so hard as I wrote my angry replies. I feel a lot better now. Thanks Doc. Head vs. Heart.

[cHawk]

24 minutes ago, jud6312 said:

"one year of Gray in a non-competitive situation and another where they *might* contend does very little for me."

I acknowledged that it's two years.

 

 

I missed that. My apologies.

[mikelink45]

We could have signed a FA and kept Petty.  Sorry I hope Grey is great, but not my favorite move.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Wild card, baby!

How much does the recent collective bargaining agreement, and expansion to 6 American League playoff teams shape recent front office decisions? 

No one will mistake the 2022 Twins roster with 2019's Bomba Squad, and their 101 regular season wins. But 85 to 88 wins will likely lead to a wild card spot. Add Pineda and Cueto, If they go 15-10 and 14-12, along with similar numbers from Gray, and a wild card is well within reach. 

[Linus]

7 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

We could have signed a FA and kept Petty.  Sorry I hope Grey is great, but not my favorite move.

This. The trade in a vacuum isn’t the whole picture. This is about the Pohlads trying to save some money. Look for a payroll between $115 and 120. 

[terrydactyls]

30 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

My Gray matter says that we need to get over our Petty concerns.

Great Post!!!!

[terrydactyls]

14 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

We could have signed a FA and kept Petty.  Sorry I hope Grey is great, but not my favorite move.

Only if the FA wanted to sign with the Twins.  People seem to refuse to acknowledge the fact that it takes both sides to agree on a contract.