Offseason Status Update: Back to Business

[Nick Nelson]

Major League Baseball has finally struck a new CBA deal with its Players Association, and suddenly spring training will be underway in days. 

A frenzied flurry of free agency and trade action is anticipated over the weekend. Let's get up to speed with where things stand for the Twins going in.

When we last provided one of these updates, the lockout had just commenced. We were celebrating Byron Buxton's newly minted contract extension, and factoring it into the projected payroll. Here's another look at that roster & payroll projection, which hasn't changed much except for a $100K bump to the rookie minimum (from ~$600K to ~$700K) as part of the new CBA.

Here's the current lay of the land:

If they're going to keep pace with their baseline spending from the past three years (a big "if" as they transition and recalibrate), the Twins theoretically have almost $50 million to spend, and not much time to spend it.

With players reporting to camp by Sunday and exhibition games firing up in a week, teams will be compelled to act quickly and address their remaining offseason needs, in what little remains of the offseason. For the Twins, those needs are many.

Expect plenty of activity all around the league in these next couple of days. From the buzz I'm hearing, it sounds like the Twins will be among the teams to strike early with a big move – maybe even by the time you're reading this on Friday morning.

What's on tap? Here's some recommended content to prep you for what lies ahead for your favorite team, in an unprecedented condensed Hot Stove SZN:

• At the end of January, I laid out three top post-lockout priorities for the Twins: trade for starting pitcher, sign a free agent starting pitcher, and figure out the plan at shortstop. I wouldn't be at all surprised if it plays out in that exact order, and all three are done by Sunday.
• Shortly after the lockout started, Nash Walker outlined three different routes the Twins could take once it ended. Spread the money around in pursuit of fringe contention? Invest in rebounding quickly? Take a bare-bones approach and rebuild? I think we'll learn pretty quickly which path they intend to follow.
• According to Cody Pirkl, there are three signings the Twins need to make immediately with the lockout over. (The Rule of Threes is really at play in this round-up, which I suppose is fitting after a three-month lockout.) Yusei Kikuchi and Richard Rodriguez strike me as very logical and realistic. The last name mentioned is quite a bit spicier.
• If you haven't yet, make sure to catch up on our 2022 top 20 prospects list, which we unveiled within the past month or so. Many of these players stand to make an impact in the coming season. One will likely be in the Opening Day rotation.
• With the condensed timeline until the regular season and a lack of quality options available, I'll be very interested to see if the Twins turn to their simplest solution at the shortstop position.
• The bullpen shouldn't be overlooked as a key need. Matthew Taylor shares (you guessed it) three reliever trade targets they could realistically pursue this weekend. He's got a trio of realistic free agent targets for the bullpen, too.
• Luis Arraez is the subject of much attention this spring due to the uncertainty around him. The Twins could trade him (says me). Or they could not (says Theo Tollefson). Or they could extend him (says Nash). 
• If you take Clayton Kershaw off the table as a Twins option (and you should), there's a clear-cut top name in the remaining free agent starter pool. Ted Schwerzler hopes the Twins sign him. I'm not sure I agree. Lotta risk. But admittedly a whole lotta upside. 
• I think the Twins have a sneaky need for an outfielder, because I suspect they view Alex Kirilloff as more of a first baseman and Miguel Sano as more of a DH. (Max Kepler is also prime trade bait.) Here are the most intriguing options left on the outfield market. 

With that, you should be fully equipped to embrace the action on deck. Enjoy the weekend, and make sure you stay tuned to Twins Daily for new and analysis. I'm guessing I'll be back with another status update on Monday, featuring plenty to break down.

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[tony&rodney]

Nick, what do think you would guess is  a likely budget for 2022? This would change how anyone speculates/puts together a team. $130 was used previously. Is that still the line?

[Nashvilletwin]

Good morning TDers. Great to have baseball back! I’ll bat lead off on the roster as the frenzy starts today.

First, let’s assume the Twins stick with $130MM to spend. I personally do not think we reach that this year, but let’s start there.

On the position player side there are three blanks. Two existing players will be primarily in different slots - AK will be our primary 1B and MS our primary DH.  That leaves SS, LF, and one more utility/OF4.

So, here is how we fill those three: a) sign Story for $25MM/yr for 4-5 years; b) Miranda becomes a major leaguer; and c) one of Larnach, Rooker, and Celestino breaks spring training with the big club. This adds $26.4MM in payroll leaving $21MM to spend.

On the bump, we add Big Mike (or similar) on a one year $8MM deal with a club option for year two and a healthy buyout option.  Our fifth starter spot starts with Jax (or Dobnak - the point is they both make the club). But this is more of a placeholder because we will be giving several of our young guys innings this year as the season progresses.

We now have $12MM left to spend on two RP spots. In the modern game, it’s so much more about the pen - thus, I’d spend the $, but look for at least one two/three year deal as quality in ‘23-‘24 is going to be more important.

If for some reason by the trade deadline we are competitive, keep the lineup intact. If not, based on how the younger players are developing, you can move JD, MK, and MP to save cash to reinvest in ‘23.

 

[mike8791]

Nick, you seem to be caught up in the euphoria of the agreement.:

http://From the buzz I'm hearing, it sounds like the Twins will be among the teams to strike early with a big move – maybe even by the time you're reading this on Friday morning.

http://At the end of January, I laid out three top post-lockout priorities for the Twins: trade for starting pitcher, sign a free agent starting pitcher, and figure out the plan at shortstop. I wouldn't be at all surprised if it plays out in that exact order, and all three are done by Sunday.

Wow!  I hope you're right but when has this FO(or past ones) ever jumped into the fray with the big boys?  We haven't seen a big move, either by trade or FA, since the Falvine boys took over 5+ years ago,  Their only "big move" in either category came with the JD signing, at the tail end of the preseason when every other team passed on him.  So why would you expect their MO to change now that lockout is over?  Do you think there's any more pressure from ownership to win this year after they passed on the pre-lockout agreement?  If I were a betting man I would wager maybe one middlin' FA signing(Pineda?) , a  C- level SS addition, and maybe a bullpen filler.

But if I, too, got caught up in the moment:  here is my wish list(in order of positive impact on returning the team to contention:

1. Sign Carlos Rodon!

2. Trade for Gray/Castillo from Reds or Montas from A's.

3. Sign one of Greinke, Pineda, Duffy or Kikuchi.

4. Sign McHugh for the pen

5.  Trade for SS - Paul DeJong, Elvis Andrus, Kiner-Falefa, or Nick Ahmed

And if there was any money left over(and there should be with $50MM available), take a flyer on Kevin Gausman even if he doesn't play in 2022.  This type of move worked well with Pineda.  Anyway, let's talk again Monday and see what this FO did accomplish.

[mk]

I'm glad the Twins can take advantage of the extra $$$ before hitting the luxury tax threshold. Oh wait, all that fuss really only impacted a small hand full of teams.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, mike8791 said:

Nick, you seem to be caught up in the euphoria of the agreement.:

http://From the buzz I'm hearing, it sounds like the Twins will be among the teams to strike early with a big move – maybe even by the time you're reading this on Friday morning.

http://At the end of January, I laid out three top post-lockout priorities for the Twins: trade for starting pitcher, sign a free agent starting pitcher, and figure out the plan at shortstop. I wouldn't be at all surprised if it plays out in that exact order, and all three are done by Sunday.

Wow!  I hope you're right but when has this FO(or past ones) ever jumped into the fray with the big boys?  We haven't seen a big move, either by trade or FA, since the Falvine boys took over 5+ years ago,  Their only "big move" in either category came with the JD signing, at the tail end of the preseason when every other team passed on him.  So why would you expect their MO to change now that lockout is over?  Do you think there's any more pressure from ownership to win this year after they passed on the pre-lockout agreement?  If I were a betting man I would wager maybe one middlin' FA signing(Pineda?) , a  C- level SS addition, and maybe a bullpen filler.

But if I, too, got caught up in the moment:  here is my wish list(in order of positive impact on returning the team to contention:

1. Sign Carlos Rodon!

2. Trade for Gray/Castillo from Reds or Montas from A's.

3. Sign one of Greinke, Pineda, Duffy or Kikuchi.

4. Sign McHugh for the pen

5.  Trade for SS - Paul DeJong, Elvis Andrus, Kiner-Falefa, or Nick Ahmed

And if there was any money left over(and there should be with $50MM available), take a flyer on Kevin Gausman even if he doesn't play in 2022.  This type of move worked well with Pineda.  Anyway, let's talk again Monday and see what this FO did accomplish.

Just some FYIs...Kevin Gausman signed a 5 year 110M deal with the Blue Jays before the lockout so I'm guessing you're thinking someone else. Kiner-Falefa is likely not on the trade block anymore after the Ranger's top 3B prospect (Josh Jung), who was supposed to fight for the opening day job at 3B had surgery on his shoulder a couple weeks ago so he's out until August and I'm guessing they'll want to hold onto Kiner-Falefa now.

[mike8791]

Oops!  Meant Tyler Glasnow on the Rays, not Kevin Gausman.  Rumors has him on trade block because of injury.

[farmerguychris]

I see the signing has begun (Cards with a RHP).....much slower than I anticipated.  I kind of thought teams would have been speaking to each other during the lockout -and we might already have a trade in place for a pitcher.  Hopefully some talks took place over the past 99 days.

[Doctor Gast]

Our biggest hole is SP, so I'll start there #1 move trade for Montas (A's) and then extend him, #2 trade for Bassit (A's) and then extend him or sign Rodon or trade for Odo.

#3 sign Archer, after not pitching for 2yrs. he had a rough 1st outing but after that he was dominate his 1st 3 innings He'd fit perfectly in the proposed opener scenario. He's a great mentor. Under Wes Johnson he can perfect even more his fastball, slider & change up. I'm sure he could be gotten w/ a low salary/ incentive contract.  High reward low risk.

#4 obtain a viable SS. IDC if we sign Story which is my 1st choice or trade for one or resign Simmons. But especially with our young rotation we need a glove primarily at SS.   #5 bring in a true CF to back up Buxton.

#6 get a high level BP arm maybe Tepera or Richard Rodriguez. This is optional because Alcala could be used there or he could be used as an opener/ long relief

[mike8791]

Update - Giants sign Rodon for 2yr/$44.  Absolutely reasonable for Twins.  This FO is a disgrace!!

[Rosterman]

Picturing the Twins getting shut-out in any further free agent pickings. Sad, sad.

 

They still need to fill roster spots. Currently in St. Paul are BECKHAM, who I believe the Twins DID sign as their shortstop candidate. 

 

Pitchers Coulombe, Megill, Smeltzer, Faria and Rodriguez could all be considered for advancement to the Twins, who currently have two roster spots and two more once Maeda (being paid decent bucks for 2022_ and Enlow go on the injured list.

 

Too many of the 40-man NEED to start in the minors. Sadly see Miranda going, unless the Twins can flip out Sano. Larnach, Lewis, Celestino, Rortvedt all go to St. Paul. Rooker probably stays.

 

Jax, Garza, Thorpe, Moran, Strotman could all break camp. WInder, Balazovic, Duran, Sands...and Stashak and Vallimont are all going to AA or AAA.

 

The Twins will be under budget come the end of spring training - BIGTIME!

[Game7-91]

2 hours ago, Rosterman said:

The Twins will be under budget come the end of spring training

Agree with Rosterman and Mike8791....not expecting major FA agent signings, nor significant SP trade. Pineda-level guy or 2, a flyer on a BP arm, hope Beckham holds fort at SS, and start running the young guys through the rotation. It's a year to see what they have in the SP pipeline.

[tony&rodney]

The current team will struggle to avoid 100 losses. I'm hoping Falvey noticed that it is ok to sign and trade now. I will remain hopeful.

[Linus]

If this is the team the Twins have going into the regular season Falvine and Levine should be fired. 

[Brandon]

The Twins did resign Minaya today to a minor league deal.  So we have that to talk about.

but I will say we trade for Bassit and extend him.  And sign Pineda at SS we signed several options so look for some other low level signing to compete for SS.  And sign an inexpensive OF to compete for LF with other in house options.

[AKTwins]

Here is what I hope for and think is realistic for FA signings.  I assume these guys would be willing to play in MN:

- Trevor Story.  ESPN has predicted he will sign with the Twins.  Looking at $25 mil per year.  I suspect a contract 3 years or less or one with a player opt out.

- Kikuchi.  No sure what he yearly value is, but I suspect a multi year contract.  He is no ace by any means, but he would be a left handed starter.  At a minimum he would be an innings eater.  At best, he is a solid #3.

- one year contract for a bounce back candidate.  I am thinking Archer or Boyd.

- for relief pitching, I don’t think this FO officer will make any sort of splash or even offer a multi year contract.  
 

- 4th outfielder. Herrera makes a lot of sense.  He will play a lot as the twins rotate starters through the DH spot.  I am expect Kirloff to start out in LF.  

- everyday LF if Kiriloff does not start out in LF. I am thinking Dickerson,  Pham or Peterson.  For each I am thinking 1 year 7-10 mil.

[jorgenswest]

Chris Bassitt is 33 years old with ZIPS WAR projections of 2.2, 1.8 and 1.6 the next three years. How long do we want to extend him? How much should we pay to extend to those projections or give up for the 2.2 next year?

Kikuchi’s projections are similar.

 

[Steve71]

I like Kikuichi just because I still believe it is good to have a lefty starter to change up the rotation. Agree he is a 3 at best.

Big Mike seems logical, and he has apparently enjoyed pitching here.

No other pitchers remaining really move the needle, and if we are going that route we might as well see what the crop of younger pitchers in hand can offer.

The move I really want is to swap a bat or bats to the Marlins for Meyer.  He seems to have potential top of the rotation stuff, and he pitched at the U.

Very wary of trading for the older arms from the A's, there is a reason they are recycling their talent at this point.