Reevaluating Minnesota’s Draft Picks: 2010-2015

[Cody Christie]

Baseball’s draft is tricky because many players are years away from impacting big-league rosters. Back in the early 2010s, the Twins struggled to identify the best available players in the draft.

Mid-market teams like the Twins need to succeed through scouting and the draft. The five years outlined below clarify why front office changes were made. Not every first-round pick will be a success, but high draft picks need to provide some value at the big-league level. 

2010 Draft
Twins Selection: Alex Wimmers (21st pick)
Left on the Board: Christian Yelich (23rd pick)
Wimmers fit the Minnesota mold as he had college pitching experience, and the organization had taken Kyle Gibson a year earlier in a similar draft position. Wimmers eventually made 22 appearances for the Twins as a reliever from 2016-17, but he was out of baseball after the 2018 season. The Marlins took Christian Yelich two picks after Wimmers, and he has gone on to win an MVP, earn multiple batting titles, and accumulate 33.4 WAR. Chris Sale, Bryce Harper, and Manny Machado are the only first-round picks from 2010 that have produced more career WAR than Yelich. 

2011 Draft
Twins Selection: Levi Michael (30th pick)
Left on the Board: Trevor Story (45th pick)
Minnesota was good in 2010, so that meant a late first-round pick in 2011. Michael seemed like a stretch at the time, and he never made it past Triple-A with the Twins, Mets, or Giants. Story was passed over by plenty of teams in the draft as he has produced the fifth highest WAR total among the 2011 first-round picks. The Twins have a second chance to add Story as a free agent this winter, but that seems unlikely at this point. 

2012 Draft
Twins Selection: Byron Buxton (2nd pick)
Left on the Board: Corey Seager (18th pick)
Of all five of these drafts, Minnesota is probably most satisfied with their selection in 2012. It’s also less challenging to mess up the second overall pick. Buxton was seen as an elite five-tool talent, and he immediately became one of baseball’s top prospects. If the Twins had the chance, five players have accumulated more WAR than Buxton, including Seager. Besides Carlos Correa, the first overall pick, Seager has the highest WAR total in the 2012 first round. Both Seager and Buxton signed long-term deals this winter, so it will be interesting to see how both players age as they hit the prime of their careers.  

2013 Draft
Twins Selection: Kohl Stewart (4th pick)
Left on the Board: Aaron Judge (32nd pick)
Organizations need to be successful with top-10 picks, and the Twins made some poor choices for multiple years in a row. Stewart appeared in four games for Minnesota, but he could never put it all together as a starting pitcher. Aaron Judge was a college player who didn’t fit an outfielder’s typical mold. He was clearly misevaluated as he has produced the second-highest WAR total among first-round picks, with Kris Bryant being the only player to rank higher. Other potential options included Tim Anderson, Sean Manaea, and Jon Gray. 

2014 Draft
Twins Selection: Nick Gordon (5th pick)
Left on the Board: Trea Turner (13th pick)
At the time, Gordon seemed like a strong choice with his family’s connections and five-tool potential. Last season, he finally made his big-league debut, and he may continue to fill a utility role for the Twins in the years ahead. Unfortunately, there were some All-Star caliber players taken behind Gordon. Turner is one year away from free agency, where he will get paid like one of baseball’s biggest stars. Aaron Nola was taken directly after Gordon and has produced 24.2 WAR. Matt Chapman, Michael Conforto, and Kyle Freeland have all combined for solid big-league careers and were also available with the fifth pick.  

2015 Draft
Twins Selection: Tyler Jay (6th pick)
Left on the Board: Walker Buehler (24th pick)
Jay was a risk when the Twins took him because he had been a reliever during his collegiate career. Minnesota thought he could be a starter, but he could never make it to the big leagues. Buehler would undoubtedly look nice at the top of the Twins rotation, even with some missed time due to injury in his career. Otherwise, Boston took Andrew Benintendi one pick after Jay, and he has produced 12.5 WAR in his career. 

Which of these players was the biggest miss for the Twins? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[RJA]

I would have to say Stewart was the biggest swing and miss as he was the highest pick that didn't make it of the group, and there were others taken after him (in first and comp rounds) in addition to Judge that have made it to the majors and performed well--Austin Meadows, Hunter Renfroe, Tim Anderson, Sean Manaea, Corey Knebel, etc.  Tyler Jay would be a close second.

[chpettit19]

Yikes. That's an absolutely brutal run of 1st round picks (even if Buxton didn't have his injury problems and was winning MVPs). Stewart, Gordon, Jay is awful. Jay is by far the worst, though. You can't take a college reliever 6th overall. So bad.

[mikelink45]

That was depressing.  How about looking at the second round.  Maybe we did better there.  Wimmers, Steward, Jay - no wonder our pitching staff was so bad. 

[USAFChief]

Brutal run, but Tyler Jay was the one that was absolutely awful. 

[ashbury]

Stewart just didn't work out, but Jay was one where Terry Ryan tried to think outside the box, and the criticism was immediate and obvious.

Ryan had this reputation for conservatism, but he would gamble, and the gambles never seemed to pay off.

[blindeke]

If the Twins had drafted Judge, he'd be a slap hitter.

[Trov]

I am never a fan of looking at MLB drafts on who we took versus who was taken some time after.  It is even worse when you use large gaps, like top 5 to end of first round.  The reason I say this is there are many things that go into a decision to draft someone, and without looking into all those reasons it is hard to really compare.  

That being said, I would agree the 2011 and 2014 drafts as good comparison type drafts. The reason I say that is the gap is not large, and the players played same positions, which meant the analysis of the team clearly was off. I actually remember the 2014 when Turner was talked as high as 5 for the Twins as well.  

Now, Mitchell and Story were not 100% comparison because Story was high school pick, and Mitchell was college, but as point out many were not high on Mitchell and questioned the pick at the time.  I know for the 2014 draft a knock on Turner was he was not expected to stay at SS, which finally has happened him shifting but he has done very well for himself in the majors, while Gordon has barely played at this level, but similar to 2011, they are flipped flopped in high school versus college.  Gordon was projected to be higher floor and stay at SS, but everyone was wrong on that. 

For 2010, it was clearly a miss, and I think I recall he was considered the same pick and we missed out on some top HS arms that panned out, at least a little in the comp round.  But to compare a college pitcher to a HS OF, it is hard to compare.  Yes, we could have, and if could do again should have drafted Yelish, however, we have no clue if he would have developed the same either. 

2012, yes Seagar has higher WAR, but I would not say we got that one wrong, and no one was thinking Seagar was the number 1 pick in that draft, like Buxton was.  If Buck could stay healthy he would have higher WAR than Seagar.

2013 comparing a guy that was top 5 rated to a guy that went comp round is just hard to say we should have taken the comp round guy.  Sure, he has panned out well, and knowing what you know now most teams would have taken Judge over why they did, but it is not like everyone was saying Judge should go early, and we missed. 

2015 we clearly blew that, but again Bueler was missed by many.  There was 7 pitchers taken between Jay and Bueler, so again it was not like we were most likely between the two.  

That all being said, that was the old FO and they have been out and for good reason, they were missing more often than hitting.  However, most GM's actually miss, very few will hit on most picks. 

[tony&rodney]

Trea Turner was scouted as a superior player than Gordon. However, the Twins had missed badly with Levi Michael from UNC and were hesitant to go with another similar player from North Carolina (NCState). That was a miss. I'm not sure what was so enticing about Tyler Jay. Big Ten baseball has not been as good as the ACC, SEC, PAC, or other warm weather conferences.

[jmlease1]

Biggest miss has to be Tyler Jay, I think. As soon as he got to AA hitters, he just couldn't compete any longer and was far too hittable (even when he got moved back to the 'pen). The great experiment totally flopped. I had in my head that he'd been injured a lot, but looking at his stats, that's not really true. he just wasn't very good. major bust.

Stewart was a miss to be sure, but at least made it to the majors with 2 clubs and had some minor league success. but he never consistently got enough Ks, struggled with control, and didn't become the big flamethrower that we all initially thought he would be. I think he's the worst-case scenario people see when looking at Chase Petty, but Petty was drafted so much lower that the risk on a high school pitcher is significantly mitigated.

the Levi michael pick looks a little rough too, but again: 30th pick, not 6th. didn't hit well enough to make up for not being elite defensively, probably got close to getting a cup of coffee in 2018-2019, but in the end just wasn't an MLB player. he's a miss, but not really a bust.

[Karbo]

I would be interested to know how the so called expert scouting services had these guys rated. Were the Twins reaching? Were they signing guys they knew could sign? were they staying away from certain agents? Lots of questions.

[Doctor Gast]

Yeah, pretty depressing, Buxton is the only one that really worked out. Which causes me to wonder why the Twins were so bad at this? Has the Twins been so bad at evaluating talent, developing talent or both? Consequently, it seems like the Dodgers were able to have success at both ends to produce a successful major leaguer.

[Mike Sixel]

And there were people here arguing that Twins shouldn't make a change in GM.....those drafts are awful, and many were criticized at the time, not just in hindsight. That level of futility defies odds for picks that high (that many of them).

Whatever we said on the board is not relevant, we aren't paid GMs with reams of data and employees helping us.....

[mk]

I think the baseball draft has much more variance and is a combination of scouting and luck - maybe looking at a draft as a whole would give a better picture to see if front office changes were necessary. Maybe there's no excuse for Tyler Jay, but extra points should be given for 2012 when the Twins selected Buxton, Berrios, and Taylor Rodgers. The 2013 pick of Kohl Stewart could be said to be redeemed by getting Mitch Garver. 

[twins_89]

Having a 3-year stretch of 1st round picks that resulted in Stewart, Gordon, and Jay was a really painful stretch for the organization. Nobody expects every 1st round pick to work out, but whiffing on 3 consecutive top 6 picks was a disaster.

The Gordon year I was high on Aaron Nola and was hoping he'd be the pick (which would have been a homerun). The Stewart/Jay years I didn't have a strong preference, so I probably can't complain too much. I guess if I had to pick one year as being the worst it would be the Gordon pick since I thought Nola was by far the best choice.

[Game7-91]

6 hours ago, Trov said:

and if could do again should have drafted Yelish, however, we have no clue if he would have developed the same either. 

Tyler Jay was the most painful. But as Trov says, no way to predict if a player would have developed similarly in different org. Would love to have the Dodger version of Buehler on Twins. But 17 other teams passed on him too. Besides, I have a hunch Twins would not have developed the LAD version. We did develop Lamont Wade from that draft...just too bad we didnt know it.

[tony&rodney]

Draft picks in baseball are tough. Rooker, Larnach, Cavaco, Sabato, ... the book on these guys has not been written yet. Petty and Miller are barely brushing their teeth.

[Danchat]

I know the draft is a crapshoot, but it shouldn't be this much of a crapshoot. To think only one of these picks turned into a replacement level player or better at the MLB level... 

[SoDakTwin]

These drafts are the reason the Twins have been brutal.  4 out of the 6 were complete misses.  Gordon is jury is still kind of out on but he certainly is no all-star caliber player.  The first few years of Buxton in the bigs were brutal at the plate.  Now it seems like he has it figured out but can't stay on the field.  All and all just a horrendous string of picks.