Playoff Expansion Leaves No Excuses for Twins Front Office

[Nash Walker]

With recent reports of a playoff expansion all but assured, the Twins have more reason to compete in 2022.

Maybe the idea that the Twins had little chance in a five-team American League playoff field was accurate. But if it was, it wasn’t a slam dunk proclamation, and with an extra team (or two) added, there are no excuses left for this front office.

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have preached a desire for “sustained success” during their tenure running the Twins. They felt the breeze from a wide-open contention window following a two-year run where the Twins led the American League in regular-season wins. Many believe the team shouldn’t even try to get better one offseason later. 

It’s an understandable viewpoint. The American League is ratcheting up, even more so than what we’re accustomed to. The East has four legitimate World Series contenders, with the Mariners in the West looking to knock off the powerhouse Astros. In the Central, the White Sox sit at the peak of their powers, with the Tigers and Royals hoping to take steps forward. It won’t be easy.

The belief that the Twins, coming off a horrifically disappointing 73-win season *can’t* improve enough to win is giving too much slack to this front office. Ownership hired them to build a sustainable winner, a team that would compete every year. They failed in 2021. Does that mean a “punt” in 2022 should be easily forgiven and understood? I’m not convinced. 

Listen, I understand there's a pitching pipeline coming. I cover the Minor League system on a daily basis, and I'm equally excited. Why does investing in the 2022 team automatically take away from the future? There's a happy medium here. 

The Twins signed Josh Donaldson to a four-year, $92 million contract to compete for the duration. They traded Brusdar Graterol for Kenta Maeda to solidify a rotation needing assistance. They extended Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, and Miguel Sanó to build around. Did they really extend Byron Buxton just to waste his age-28 season? Deciding to throw away an entire season by not making impactful additions is not acceptable, especially with an expanded postseason. Why build all of that financial flexibility? For nothing? 

The Boston Red Sox won 24 out of 60 games in the shortened 2020 season. That followed an incredibly disappointing follow-up to a dominant World Series run, one that looked to set the tone for years to come. Instead of folding for 2021, the team invested by signing Kiké Hernández and Hunter Renfroe and trading for Adam Ottavino. 

Those moves weren’t earth-shattering, as the Red Sox had the offensive pieces in place to score runs in bunches. The rotation looked bleak, with Eduardo Rodríguez still recovering from myocarditis, Nick Pivetta struggling mightily in 2020, and Nathan Eovaldi throwing just 116 combined innings over the prior two seasons. 

Boston didn’t throw in the towel. They gave themselves a fighting chance, relied on a potent offense, and eventually appeared in the ALCS. I agree the Twins shouldn’t trade away the entire future, but they can give themselves a chance in a six or seven-team field with the right moves. 

This current Twins roster has little upside, but the floor is high enough offensively that the team could surprise this summer with substantial additions. It’s disheartening that the pain of the 2021 season eliminated this reality from so many minds. We shouldn’t let it. 

Don’t let this front office off the hook. They were brought in to build a consistent winner. The jury is out whether they'll stick to their word. 
 

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
— Order the Offseason Handbook
— Latest Twins coverage from our writers
— Recent Twins discussion in our forums
— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook , or email 

View full article

[cHawk]

That’s a lot of holes to fill in one offseason.

I’ve said this before and I still stand by it, the # of games the Twins win in 2022 will depend on how much the pipeline produces. If it does produce, I think the Twins could have a fighting chance in 2022. But this is the year which that needs to start happening, if there is baseball this year. If it doesn’t then it’s a failure.

[mikelink45]

I still rely on the minor leagues.  The additions to the playoffs just put more lousy teams in the extended season.  The NFL was a good example - its first week of playoffs was dreadful.  A waste of time, but lots of money for the league.  To be one of the teams that comes in just to be shuffled out by round two is not an accomplishment.  Lets build a team to go to the WS.

[Employee No. 4210]

If the MLB and MLBPA agree on a expanded postseason play requiring "ghost wins," and the Twins are a top seed, does that mean they might end their 18-postseason-games losing streak with a ghost victory?!?

[Trov]

25 minutes ago, Employee No. 4210 said:

If the MLB and MLBPA agree on a expanded postseason play requiring "ghost wins," and the Twins are a top seed, does that mean they might end their 18-postseason-games losing streak with a ghost victory?!?

I would hope that would not count, at least it will not in my mind.  

[Karbo]

I agree that the Twins may be closer than most think, especially if they expand the playoff field. So many people complain about the fact they don't have the #1 ace to front the rotation and boy is that true. However, IMO signing a couple mid rotation type arms like Pineda or trading for some in that same range while we see what the youngsters can do in the minors or in the pen may keep us afloat. Of coarse, we still need a ss, but I don't think we need a superstar, (though that would be nice). We should still have a fairly potent offense that can score runs. I don't mind a bunch of 6-5 or 8-7 type games.

[Blyleven2011]

My achy breaky heart  .

[TwinsDr2021]

Throwing the prospects to the Wolves in 22 doesn't guarantee anything for 23, there should be a way to promote these pitching prospects and get their innings and try to compete with the offense they have. I have no interest in watching a bunch of pitchers pitch 2 or 3 innings every game, but I have Hulu so not watching probably won't be problem.

[Unwinder]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Throwing the prospects to the Wolves in 22 doesn't guarantee anything for 23

It's true, the Twins can use them and they probably aren't even that good at basketball. 

[LastOnePicked]

I'm hoping the proposed postseason changes have this effect, yes. Twins have very little chance of taking the AL Central, but a run at a third WC spot isn't too far-fetched. Sad that they let so many 2022 free agents pass already, but something can maybe be salvaged. Still give prospects a chance and figure out what you've got, but bolster the rotation.

And I like expanded playoffs (though I prefer 12, not 14). Gives the trade deadline and the final two months of the season more energy.

[Unwinder]

I'm coming around on expanded playoffs based on this article's perspective. Sure, it de-incentivizes contenders from upgrading at the trade deadline, but if it deprives mediocre teams of their excuse for phoning it in, I suppose it could encourage parity. (And now to take a big sip of coffee and see how expanded playoffs have affected other sports...)

[baul0010]

With expanded playoff's...we can really start building upon our postseason series losing streak!

I don't want to be that negative, but how in the world are we going to win anything with no pitching.  It doesn't matter how much we score.  I hope the F.O. proves me wrong, but I have a feeling '22 ain't gunna be great.

[adorduan]

The only way the Twins get close to a world series is have multiple pitchers come up and be very good to great in their 1-4 seasons. After that they get to expensive for the Twins. How likely is that to happen?

[tony&rodney]

This article is right on. I'm not expecting a $130-150 million payroll in 2022, but a few moves easily would help the team and any pitching prospects who debut. The moves suggested by Nash Walker would make a difference, cost very little in prospect capital, and leave the Twins below $125 million for the roster. Naturally, we defer to the Twins concerning what additions are made but the increase in playoff opportunities is a real reason to add some experienced players.

[Doctor Gast]

You can't expect the 2019 "live ball" production for this year or any year. We've lost Cruz but we still have a great core  which I  think has a higher "upside" than most people think. Yes we have many holes especially in pitching but I think we can fill those holes with very little loss.

By trading redundant players & prospects we can acquire 1 or 2 bonafide veteran pitchers that can greatly aid our younger prospects to learn the ropes and take away most of the pressure of young prospects to carry the team. I'd rather lose some players via trade than Rule 5 draft.

If we don't try to upgrade our team and compete and w/o the guidance of veterans, I fear it could cause our young prospects to flounder and we'd be no better off and create aother "Twinkie Era" (heaven forbid). Although most "pundits" don't like our pitching pipeline, I am hopeful. I don't want all our present talent go to waste, by punting again. We are on a very slippery slope, if we don't try to compete this season, don't ever think we can in the future.

I believe we can't let this FO off the hook. Although I'm optimistic with this pitching pipeline, I'm pessimistic with the rest that the do. This FO needs to be shaken from their complacency due to the unduly confidence from the Pohlads, 

[rationalfan]

Of course I want the Twins to obtain more talent, but I'm not convinced they will be particularly competitive this year.  If I had a choice to spend money this year or next year, I'd choose next year after evaluating the younger players in 2022 to determine greatest needs and have a good fresh free agent SP pool to choose from.  Using the Red Sox as the example is laughable to me.  1) In 2021 they had a payroll of $180M which was down 10% from the previous year (prorated) which means they didn't do much in the off-season actually.  2)Those big moves are exactly what the Twins get ripped for: Kike and Renfroe were value additions for a whopping $9M in 2021 and commitment for only 2 years.  Ottavino was a 1 year commitment.  No big names.  No significant commitments.  3)Boston always has potential due to the market.  That was their lowest payroll in several years and even without those additions would have been a top 10 payroll.  Boston should always be in contention at the start of each season. 

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, Unwinder said:

if it deprives mediocre teams of their excuse for phoning it in, I suppose it could encourage parity.

Conversely I think it could also de-incentivize mediocre teams. Why spend money in FA or prospect capital in trades to add proven talent when you can sell hope, shoot for 84 wins, and back into the postseason? 

[RJA]

If the American teams perform about the same this summer as last summer, and if there is a 12 team playoff structure, the Twins would likely have to win 90-93 games to be a wild card entry.  That means they will have to find about 20 additional wins this summer.  If you look at the roster, they will be short Berrios, Cruz, part of a season of Maeda, possibly Pineda, and a few others like Simmons and Colome who won't be missed :).  Berrios is obviously the big loss.  They should have more Buxton (we all pray that is the case), more Kirilloff, more Ryan, more Ober and hopefully more Taylor.  Now if they had signed a Ray, Gausman or similar top arm, and added Pineda and one more solid arm through a trade, with the young kids coming up, I could see them closing the gap.  But, unless they sign Rodon and trade for a second arm, I don't see how the young kids will be able to carry them to 20 more wins.  I hope I am wrong.

[USAFChief]

Of course we should hold this FO responsible for contention this year.

They promised us as much, enherited a pretty good situation, and already have a massive failed season to their credit.

Back to back losing seasons is not "sustained contention."

 

[Prince William]

Ownership hired them to have an idea of winning. but not an expectation of winning every year. No mid market team can do that

[cHawk]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Of course we should hold this FO responsible for contention this year.

They promised us as much, enherited a pretty good situation, and already have a massive failed season to their credit.

Back to back losing seasons is not "sustained contention."

 

I agree with your post except for this statement. They inherited literally the worst team in Twins history. Many of the Ryan-drafted core players that are good today weren’t actually good when the current regime took over.

Not trying to give them a pass for 2021 but to say that the franchise was in a good spot in November of 2016 is not accurate.

[DocBauer]

I think the OP is pretty spot on. And I like and agree with so many comments here. But I think there's a lot to discuss and I'm going to attempt to bullet point here;

1] Back in the day, I always hated only 2 divisions in each league. No matter how good you were, if you finished 2nd your season was done. Never made sense to me. I think 3 divisions in each league took WAY TOO LONG to happen, but it finally did, with a WC. I think baseball was better for it.

I've never had a problem with 2 WC teams, but I've always felt the 1 game "coin flip" to advance was ridiculous. It should have always been a 3 game "play in" format.

I am just fine with 12 teams, if you can actually make it work without similar "coin flip" games...but I will adjust I guess...and not prolong thr season well in to November. But I really hate a 14 team format! At that point, it's mediocrity vs money ONLY and everything becomes watered down. ESPECIALLY with this BIZARRE idea of a 1-0 nothing series lead on the books. 

Do we really want baseball to follow the NBA and NFL format of allowing .500 and below teams in, on occasion? Especially when the 162G marathon is supposed to mean something? Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face! And the "ghost win" is so abhorantly ridiculous I can't even laugh! Just play a 3 game series or continue with the 1 game "coin flip" that I hate. At least it would be decided on the field.

2] Regarding sustainability, that doesn't mean, and has never meant, the Twins would be in contention EVERY season. NOBODY can guarantee that EVERY season. It's about being a good, solid team with a chance to win and be relevant MOST years. (Same with any sport). Over the past 5 years the Twins won, went to the playoffs, lost, and then won 101 and 36 games, (prorated was about 96G), and were in the playoffs and then had a weird, bizarre, who could predict 2021. THREE winning seasons out of five and in the playoffs. And no matter how much we want to look back on 2021 with revisionist eyes and opinions, or languish about how things didn't turn out and this and that happened...2021 just HAPPENED. Even the pundits felt the Twins would win, and fight the Dirty Sox for the Central crown. Crap happens, and it happened in Biff Tannen horse crap way.

But 3 of 5 years, to me, is a mark of sustainability, even with unexpected disaster in 2021.

3] When crap happens like it did in 2021...and I include an implosion of prospects, mostly pitching being affected by a variety of 2020 factors, and the Twins weren't the only team affected...sometimes a team needs a re-set. It's unfortunate, and sucks, but it's reality. The Maeda injury only magnifies the issue.

I am NOT a fan of punting on 2022, especially with the talent on hand, and an expanded playoff format. And while a fan of our FO, I am NOT a fan of ignoring the opportunity to add pre-lockout that seemed so obvious to me. Add while still providing opportunity during the season just made so much sense!

I would be stunned if the FO traded more than 2 players off the 40 man as well as 2-4 prospects from the top 15-20 list to add pitching. I DO believe that they had some trade options they liked but couldn't pull the trigger due to the lockout.

I NEVER saw the Oddo trade, or the Maeda trade, or the Donaldson signing. I was even pleasantly surprised by the Cruz signing. So I really have no clue what our FO is looking at once the lockout is done.

Could they make a Story or Rodon signing? Maybe. Could they trade from ML and milb depth to aquire a quality pitcher? Absolutely and maybe. Could they bring back Pineda and someone like Kikuchi to flesh out their roation with a veteran and an "upside not yet realized" addition? Yes. Maybe Odorizzi comes back cheap but as a good fit.

Again, not exactly happy how things happened, or didnt happen, pre-lockout. And no matter what happens, i think having room for young pitchers being allowed to progress and audition is important.  And i think that is ultimately part of the 2022 plan. But I dont feel the FO is done with moves once the lockout is done. 

..

[Nash Walker]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

I think the OP is pretty spot on. And I like and agree with so many comments here. But I think there's a lot to discuss and I'm going to attempt to bullet point here;

1] Back in the day, I always hated only 2 divisions in each league. No matter how good you were, if you finished 2nd your season was done. Never made sense to me. I think 3 divisions in each league took WAY TOO LONG to happen, but it finally did, with a WC. I think baseball was better for it.

I've never had a problem with 2 WC teams, but I've always felt the 1 game "coin flip" to advance was ridiculous. It should have always been a 3 game "play in" format.

I am just fine with 12 teams, if you can actually make it work without similar "coin flip" games...but I will adjust I guess...and not prolong thr season well in to November. But I really hate a 14 team format! At that point, it's mediocrity vs money ONLY and everything becomes watered down. ESPECIALLY with this BIZARRE idea of a 1-0 nothing series lead on the books. 

Do we really want baseball to follow the NBA and NFL format of allowing .500 and below teams in, on occasion? Especially when the 162G marathon is supposed to mean something? Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face! And the "ghost win" is so abhorantly ridiculous I can't even laugh! Just play a 3 game series or continue with the 1 game "coin flip" that I hate. At least it would be decided on the field.

2] Regarding sustainability, that doesn't mean, and has never meant, the Twins would be in contention EVERY season. NOBODY can guarantee that EVERY season. It's about being a good, solid team with a chance to win and be relevant MOST years. (Same with any sport). Over the past 5 years the Twins won, went to the playoffs, lost, and then won 101 and 36 games, (prorated was about 96G), and were in the playoffs and then had a weird, bizarre, who could predict 2021. THREE winning seasons out of five and in the playoffs. And no matter how much we want to look back on 2021 with revisionist eyes and opinions, or languish about how things didn't turn out and this and that happened...2021 just HAPPENED. Even the pundits felt the Twins would win, and fight the Dirty Sox for the Central crown. Crap happens, and it happened in Biff Tannen horse crap way.

But 3 of 5 years, to me, is a mark of sustainability, even with unexpected disaster in 2021.

3] When crap happens like it did in 2021...and I include an implosion of prospects, mostly pitching being affected by a variety of 2020 factors, and the Twins weren't the only team affected...sometimes a team needs a re-set. It's unfortunate, and sucks, but it's reality. The Maeda injury only magnifies the issue.

I am NOT a fan of punting on 2022, especially with the talent on hand, and an expanded playoff format. And while a fan of our FO, I am NOT a fan of ignoring the opportunity to add pre-lockout that seemed so obvious to me. Add while still providing opportunity during the season just made so much sense!

I would be stunned if the FO traded more than 2 players off the 40 man as well as 2-4 prospects from the top 15-20 list to add pitching. I DO believe that they had some trade options they liked but couldn't pull the trigger due to the lockout.

I NEVER saw the Oddo trade, or the Maeda trade, or the Donaldson signing. I was even pleasantly surprised by the Cruz signing. So I really have no clue what our FO is looking at once the lockout is done.

Could they make a Story or Rodon signing? Maybe. Could they trade from ML and milb depth to aquire a quality pitcher? Absolutely and maybe. Could they bring back Pineda and someone like Kikuchi to flesh out their roation with a veteran and an "upside not yet realized" addition? Yes. Maybe Odorizzi comes back cheap but as a good fit.

Again, not exactly happy how things happened, or didnt happen, pre-lockout. And no matter what happens, i think having room for young pitchers being allowed to progress and audition is important.  And i think that is ultimately part of the 2022 plan. But I dont feel the FO is done with moves once the lockout is done. 

..

I really appreciate all your responses, including this one. 

[USAFChief]

5 hours ago, cHawk said:

I agree with your post except for this statement. They inherited literally the worst team in Twins history. Many of the Ryan-drafted core players that are good today weren’t actually good when the current regime took over.

Not trying to give them a pass for 2021 but to say that the franchise was in a good spot in November of 2016 is not accurate.

The 2017 team won 85 games. Most of the 2019 team was in the organization. They had some money to spend, and only Mauer's contract to deal with.

It was time to change leadership, but the organization wasn't without talent. 

[cHawk]

5 hours ago, USAFChief said:

The 2017 team won 85 games. Most of the 2019 team was in the organization. They had some money to spend, and only Mauer's contract to deal with.

It was time to change leadership, but the organization wasn't without talent. 

The organization obviously had talent. There was a solid young core, no doubt in my mind. That doesn’t change the fact that the Twins were exiting their worst season in team history. A lot of the players that drove the 2019 team to 101 wins might have been here when the current regime took over, but very few of them were actually good. Buxton was bad in 2016. Berrios was awful in 2016. The pitching cupboards were nearly bare and that doesn’t even account for the three consecutive wasted Top 6 picks from 2013-15.

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, cHawk said:

The organization obviously had talent. There was a solid young core, no doubt in my mind. That doesn’t change the fact that the Twins were exiting their worst season in team history. A lot of the players that drove the 2019 team to 101 wins might have been here when the current regime took over, but very few of them were actually good. Buxton was bad in 2016. Berrios was awful in 2016. The pitching cupboards were nearly bare and that doesn’t even account for the three consecutive wasted Top 6 picks from 2013-15.

I'd argue the organization was in better shape when this FO took over than today. 

[cHawk]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I'd argue the organization was in better shape when this FO took over than today. 

Please do tell.

[TwinsDr2021]

47 minutes ago, cHawk said:

Please do tell.

Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Sano, Polanco, Arraez, Garver, Kirilloff, Mauer, Escobar, Gordon, Berrios, Gibson, Romero, Gonsalves, Stewart, Mejia, Jorge, Duffey, Pressly, Rogers, May, Wade, Baddoo, Jax just to name a few plus the first overall pick. Sure a few of those pitchers didn't pan out but at one time or another some were in the top 100 prospects overall. That is like 7 all stars, 4 of which are pitchers.

[cHawk]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Sano, Polanco, Arraez, Garver, Kirilloff, Mauer, Escobar, Gordon, Berrios, Gibson, Romero, Gonsalves, Stewart, Mejia, Jorge, Duffey, Pressly, Rogers, May, Wade, Baddoo, Jax just to name a few plus the first overall pick. Sure a few of those pitchers didn't pan out but at one time or another some were in the top 100 prospects overall. That is like 7 all stars, 4 of which are pitchers.

About half of the players you named are still here. In addition, there is now Lewis, Larnach, Martin, SWR, Ryan, Duran, Winder, Petty, Alcala, Jeffers, Winder, Ober, Donaldson, Maeda to name a few that were added by the current regime.

[Prince William]

6 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I'd argue the organization was in better shape when this FO took over than today. 

 

4 hours ago, cHawk said:

Please do tell.

The subjectivity of such a statement as "worse off" makes it really an undebatable comment. Last year's win total obviously makes it so.  Considering that Ervin Santana, Hector Santiago, Tommy Millone have all been spending time in the league last year, you have to ask would those three plus Duffey as a starter had won as many games as last year's team did? How about the starters drafted by the previous regime? Kohl Stewart anyone? The previous regime had no starting  pitching other than Berrios and Gibson. That in no way is in good shape.  Is Berrios what he is because of the current regime or the past regime? The previous regime wanted Buxton to beat out base hits. Would Buxton be as big being the hitter he was the first 2 years? You can have an opinion based on win of one year. Myopia is what it is