Which Twins Prospects and Players Benefit from a Delayed MLB Season?

[Nick Nelson]

The MLB season has already been delayed and it's about to get delayed further, meaning that major-leaguers and 40-man rostered prospects will continue to be off our radar for awhile.

In the meantime, let's turn our focus to those players who are in Fort Myers and gearing up for minor-league  seasons that will get underway in one month.

With all big-leaguers and many top prospects absent from camp, players who are not subject to MLB's lockout are able to take center stage as they work toward the starts of their seasons with Twins affiliates. 

Not only could this result in extra coaching and opportunities to make an impression, but the altered timeline of an MLB season starting well after these players get rolling in the minors could also play to their advantage.

Last week Nash Walker called out five players who stand to be most negatively impacted by a shortened season. Today I'll try to flip the script by highlighting some prospects and players who stand to be benefit from this very unfortunate situation.

5 Positive Prospect Scenarios Made Possible by the Delayed Season

Austin Martin shows he's ready.

In some respects, Martin looks like an MLB-ready player. He was a top-five draft pick two years ago, based almost entirely on his polish and advanced skills. He led all of Double-A in on-base percentage last year, brandishing a plate approach that almost everyone agrees will play in the majors. 

Yet, as I wrote when profiling him as our #1 prospect, there are still a few elements of Martin's game that need to be ironed out before he can make the jump. He hasn't gotten any in-game experience outside of shortstop and center field, and his swing likely needs refinement. 

Were spring training and Opening Day playing out as normal, Martin probably wouldn't be in the mix for a big-league job right out of the gates, even if an opportunity opened up at – say – second base or center field. 

But if the season doesn't start until mid-May, and Martin has already had a successful spring and strong start in St. Paul? Different ballgame, so to speak.

Matt Canterino earns an immediate nod.

Like Martin, Canterino is a clear-cut MLB-caliber talent who has questions to answer before receiving a look in the majors. In his case, it's not so much the condensed timeline creating ambiguity – he was drafted out of college in 2019, and turned 24 in December – but a lack of reps. 

Due to the pandemic and injuries, Canterino has thrown only 48 total innings since joining the Twins system, including just 23 last year. He has yet to pitch above Single-A. It's unlikely that even a brilliant showing in a typical 2022 big-league camp would have put him in line to win an Opening Day job on the pitching staff, because there is just no baseline for stamina or durability. 

A strong showing in spring and a healthy, dominant run at Double-A through the early weeks of the minor-league season could convince Twins brass he's ready for a look right away when the delayed MLB season starts. 

Like with Martin, Canterino would potentially be able to impact a much larger portion of the Twins' season than he would otherwise. And unlike Martin, the path for Canterino is pretty much wide open. Minnesota has a desperate and immediate need for electric arms like his.

Louie Varland accelerates his timeline.

Varland was one of the best stories of the Twins system last year, going from a relatively unknown 15th-round draft pick in 2019 to the organization's Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2021. With a powered-up fastball, he made mincemeat of hitters between Fort Myers and Cedar Rapids, posting a 2.10 ERA and 142-to-30 K/BB ratio and just six homers allowed in 103 innings.

Tremendous work. But all of it done in Single-A. Varland is 24 so he's at an age where pitchers often break into the majors, but his development is lagging behind due to the pandemic. A delayed start for the big-leaguers, and other top prospects who are more advanced, could give him a chance to play catch-up.

Aaron Sabato and Keoni Cavaco change their storylines.

Sabato and Cavaco are both first-round draft picks from the past three years (2020 and 2019, respectively) but neither appeared in our recent top 20 prospect rankings, which is obviously a bad sign. 

Both had uphill climbs to justify their draft positions – Cavaco a raw prep player widely regarded as a stretch pick, Sabato a bat-only player who needed to mash immediately – and so far neither has come close, instead hurtling in the dreaded "bust" category. But in both cases, it's still early enough to remain hopeful.

Eye-opening springs followed strong starts in the minors could help these downtrodden talents reverse their descending trajectories. Maybe by the time the Twins season starts, the view of one or both could be considerably different. Sabato is theoretically someone who could help this year with a big step forward.

Devin Smeltzer puts himself back in the picture.

Not every player in camp is a young prospect vying for their first chance at the big leagues. Smeltzer is an example of someone who's been there and is fighting to get back. 

The lefty spent more than two years on the Twins' 40-man roster before being outrighted last November, in the wake of a lost season. With more than two full seasons of service time, he was creeping up on arbitration eligibility. 

Now, he finds himself on the outside looking in. Except, in a more literal sense, he doesn't.

Smeltzer's 40-man setback provides him with an opportunity to show he's gotten past the elbow issues of 2021, and is ready to help a needy Twins pitching staff again. As a 26-year-old with 70 innings of big-league experience and a 106 ERA+, he could put himself on the fast track by taking advantage of his head-start on other pitchers in similar positions, such as Randy Dobnak and Lewis Thorpe.

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[Doctor Gast]

I wish Austin can really shine at this opportunity because we need someone to step up to be a good back up to Buxton. Earlier it was discussed about saving Garver. It was mentioned that he could play some 1B.

Some one said that Kiriloff shouldn't play 1B because because we really don't have anyone to play LF. I agree with whoever said that because we don't. But it leaves an open door for Cave to sneak back in. There were a lot of minor league contracts signed for INF but none for OF. It's like they don't care if we are really hurting for MLB ready OF gloves as long as Cave has his opportunity.

[tony&rodney]

Good call on these players. It seems like Smeltzer could benefit the most in the early season, providing there is something happening by May. He will have his routines down by April and could be pretty tuned in for St. Paul. Those on the 40 person roster will face a period where they need to ramp up. The pitchers are already three weeks behind and despite some who view Spring Training as a little pointless, the time from mid February to the end of March is critical for developing a feel for pitches against hitters and gaining some stamina. Smeltzer gets an improved opportunity in the current situation.

[mikelink45]

I like the first ones on the list but success of the last three I would shock me. I do like the idea of Martin and Canterino forcing their way on to the roster.

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I wish Austin can really shine at this opportunity because we need someone to step up to be a good back up to Buxton. Earlier it was discussed about saving Garver. It was mentioned that he could play some 1B.

Some one said that Kiriloff shouldn't play 1B because because we really don't have anyone to play LF. I agree with whoever said that because we don't. .

Incidentally, it could be... Martin! 

[Blyleven2011]

If Martin and Palacios have a strong start in minor leagues  either definitely have a chance with the early start over 40 man roster  players to open the season  if there is not a shortstop  added  .....

Cantarino , winder and strotman if healthy  and get off to  strong starts  , we do have 2 spots currently left to fill on 40 man roster and once the season starts and adding enlow and maeda to 60 day IL LIST  that will be 2 more spots to fill on 40 ....

some Minor league players from AA on up to AAA have a great opportunity  to make opening day MLB roster if and when WE PLAY BALL

[jimbo92107]

When he arrived at the New World, Cortez had his men burn his ships...no going back. 

No going back. Release Cave, trade Sano and Donaldson, unload the guys from the last two years that were filler or flops or just mediocre ballplayers. It's hard to find reliable starters that perform well, but as a Front Office you have to keep trying. 

Twins today are loaded with young prospects that soon will need serious tryouts at the mlb level. Miranda should get an extended shot at third base. Martin, same deal at SS. Kirilloff, same deal, first base. Larnach, left field. Bring them up as a group, the new core of the team. If Buxton gets injured again, bring up Lewis to CF. 

Get the premium prospects out on the field. That'll put some butts in the seats. 

[beckmt]

The first two look like the big ones for immediate help.  Sabato and Cavaco must start showing something or they are headed for the bust category and a lot of gnashing of teeth about this front office and their draft picks.  Varland is still probably a year or two away if he makes it.  Will be interesting to watch.  Smeltzer is a pitcher who might soak some innings on a bad club whose prospects are a couple of years away.  Do not want to see him again here.

[beckmt]

I had to look, but feel you erred greatly in leaving out Simons-Richardson from this list.   He could also move up rapidly if he looks strong out of the gate.  As noted above we should have some roster spots available   He could really help himself with a strong start in Wichita.  

[RJA]

39 minutes ago, beckmt said:

I had to look, but feel you erred greatly in leaving out Simons-Richardson from this list.   He could also move up rapidly if he looks strong out of the gate.  As noted above we should have some roster spots available   He could really help himself with a strong start in Wichita.  

Good list, Nick.  The only change I would make is to add Woods-Richardson as beckmt suggested.  My reasoning would be that this is a bigger opportunity for him as he is closer to making an impact at the MLB level so if he impresses this spring he could move up quickly.  Cavaco on the other hand is so far away that if the does well, which the Twins and all of us hope, it will not significantly affect his opportunities this year.  Good topic.

[roger]

When MLB gets back in action, the Twins have lots of decisions and moves to make before opening day.  But as these negotiations drag on, they have time to see what help may be available from St. Paul.  Thus, their decisions regarding those needs could change.

Great article and topic, should be one heck of a spring.  Especially, if this drags on for more than a month and they can see some of these guys at CHS Field playing games.

I don't see Smeltzer as someone I want to see back in a traditional starting rotation.  But could he be part of a piggyback duo should the Twins go that route?

As I read your comments about Martin I kept thinking, could Martin develop into someone similar to Paul Moliter?  Could Moliter be a good comp for this young man?   

[AceWrigley]

I think Palacios and Strotman have the most to gain from a good early showing.

[Karbo]

I agree that Palacios has a real shot here now that it looks like the rule 5 draft is DOA this year. Unless we sign a ss he seems like our best solution as I don't think they will move Polo off of 2nd, and they don't seem to think Gordon can handle short.

[tony&rodney]

8 hours ago, jimbo92107 said:

No going back.

I am as excited as anyone to eventually see some of the Twins young prospects. The Twins have an average or slightly below average farm system with no pitchers currently projected by scouts or analysts to be frontline starters. This is according to pretty much every single system that rates the prospects. Of course, we don't have to agree. I, for one, am not ready to have the Twins lose 100+ games per year and replicate the Baltimore experience. 

In this post a few players were forwarded as possibly gaining an advantage because they are in camp while others are locked out. The lockout hurts Winder but helps Canterino. I have never been a big fan of Smeltzer but he gains an advantage over Thorpe and others because he is in camp. I can also see Martin being an option as our left fielder. However, JD and other experienced players remain the foundation of the Twins team and mixing in prospects as they are ready is the best option for competitiveness. 

[Old fox]

Al minor league players who are in spring training already  are benefiting from this time of adding coaching. We most likely don’t know the effects ml camps being shut down already & indefinite future. However it a appears that many of the “40 man roster players” are participating  informally  in conditioning and skill practices. It will be interesting to see if injuries in 2022 will stay the same, or increase or decrease. If ba, so, walks, errors  & miss-plays ratio’s change from a “normal” year

[Nick Nelson]

4 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

I think Palacios and Strotman have the most to gain from a good early showing.

I've seen Strotman mentioned a couple times in this thread but he's on the 40-man so unfortunately unable to participate. Palacios is a good name to call out though, could get himself in the mix for a utility role. 

[AceWrigley]

53 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

I've seen Strotman mentioned a couple times in this thread but he's on the 40-man so unfortunately unable to participate. Palacios is a good name to call out though, could get himself in the mix for a utility role. 

Oh yeah ... oops.

[Nick Nelson]

4 hours ago, roger said:

As I read your comments about Martin I kept thinking, could Martin develop into someone similar to Paul Moliter?  Could Moliter be a good comp for this young man?   

Ooh I like this comp. Just looked back at Molitor's age-23 season in the majors: .304/.372/.438 with 9 HR, 34 SB, and 48/48 K/BB while playing primarily second base. Obviously that's on the optimistic side but a feasible high-end projection for Martin. 

[Nick Nelson]

1 minute ago, AceWrigley said:

Oh yeah ... oops. Ok then, maybe Josh Winder. Being healthy and effective could put him in a Twins uniform.

Also on the 40-man ? which is a real bummer because he's in the category of guys who could clearly benefit from a head-start

[AceWrigley]

2 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Also on the 40-man ? which is a real bummer because he's in the category of guys who could clearly benefit from a head-start

Ha, I already changed it!  lol.

[AceWrigley]

You might be right about Smeltzer having the delay benefit. Maybe he can become Jamie Moyer II.

[DocBauer]

 

I'd leave Cavaco and Sabato off the list as lockout or not, they aren't going to be ready to help soon. (Especially Cavaco). 

But I would absolutely put SWR and Palacios on the list. And along with them, Gore, Mason, Hamilton, and just about any other bullpen arm that might position themselves for helpful/quick promotion once the ML season begins. 

Contreras might surprise as a call up 4th OF spot. And though few want to hear it, Cave, Garlick just might re-establish themselves as role player options.

[Rosterman]

A shorter season would be great for pretty much every Twins pitcher. The ones on the 40-man would still have the training period, but don't need to go much above 100 or 150 innings, depending on who they are. All the minor league guys will still get a full season.

 

The Twins could pretty much write-off the season for being competitive and run a team on the cheap. 

 

The problem will be putting fans in the stands, and dealing with revenue streams from advertising, as well as local television and radio. Out of sight, often out of mind. Baseball in Minnesota loses momentum without the spring training to lakes and travels and the outdoors.

 

Doesn't help when you can't even print a yearbook because you aren't sue about the players.

[mikelink45]

On 3/7/2022 at 12:31 AM, jimbo92107 said:

When he arrived at the New World, Cortez had his men burn his ships...no going back. 

No going back. Release Cave, trade Sano and Donaldson, unload the guys from the last two years that were filler or flops or just mediocre ballplayers. It's hard to find reliable starters that perform well, but as a Front Office you have to keep trying. 

Twins today are loaded with young prospects that soon will need serious tryouts at the mlb level. Miranda should get an extended shot at third base. Martin, same deal at SS. Kirilloff, same deal, first base. Larnach, left field. Bring them up as a group, the new core of the team. If Buxton gets injured again, bring up Lewis to CF. 

Get the premium prospects out on the field. That'll put some butts in the seats. 

We did something similar when Hrbek, Puckett, Gaetti, Kelly and others came up and changed the Twins attitude and success.