The Twins May Have Their Next Tyler Duffey

[Cody Pirkl]

Tyler Duffey has been a rock-solid addition to the Twins bullpen after failing to pan out in the rotation. At 31 years old with one year of control left, his time with the Twins may be nearing an end. Luckily they may have a ready-made replacement already in the majors.

Tyler Duffey was drafted in the 5th round of the 2012 draft out of Rice. Despite spending much of his college career in the bullpen, the Twins were able to boost his fastball velocity and add a changeup to his already plus breaking ball, and make him a starter. After debuting in the Twins rotation, Duffey struggled and became an afterthought before eventually resurfacing in the bullpen. 

The right-hander of course used a change in fastball philosophy and his wipeout curveball to become one of the most underrated relievers in all of baseball during 2019-2020. 2021 was a bit shaky but Duffey has established himself as a reliable, high leverage reliever. The Twins should use Duffey’s successful blueprint on another arm who shares several similarities.

Griffin Jax has been a starter throughout the minors and filled in for an ailing rotation during his 2021 debut. The Air Force Captain was never a top prospect and rarely posted above-average performances in the minors. Upon his debut, it was clear that Jax was a two-pitch pitcher, a trait that led to significant trouble navigating lineups multiple times. What wasn’t apparent until his debut is just how good one of his two pitches was.

Eno Sarris, a prominent writer at The Athletic uses a pitching model called Pitching+ which measures velocity, movement, and spin to determine a pitcher’s “Stuff+” while measuring their ability to locate into “Location+”. A 100 grading is average for both metrics. Jax, due in large part to his slider, grades ahead of Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, and Dylan Bundy in Stuff+ at an above average 102.8. While the full pitch by pitch Pitching+ Model isn’t publicly available, Sarris has noted that Jax’s slider is one of the best pitches in baseball according to Stuff+.

It’s fair to assume Jax’s fastball may hold him back with little movement and averaging under 93 mph. What he’s left with is a less than spectacular fastball to set up for a fantastic breaking ball. This approach likely doesn’t pan out well in the rotation, but could be more than enough to dominate in short stints as we’ve seen with Tyler Duffey. As fellow Twins Daily writer Cody Christie pointed out in January, Jax would slot into an opener role very well based on his success particularly in the first inning. 

It’s also fair to wonder however whether Jax could thrive in a short-term, high leverage role in the late innings. Similar to Duffey, Jax could add some velocity to his fastball and try to place it at the top of the zone to set up his devastating breaker. It’s become a common recipe for success for relievers across baseball.

The Twins bullpen has a lot of uncertainty between Taylor Rogers’ finger, Tyler Duffey’s 2021 struggles, and the question of whether both pitchers will even be on the Twins Opening Day roster. With the front office unlikely to add significant free agents to the bullpen mix, someone like Jax who’s already shown his abilities at the MLB level could easily climb the bullpen ladder throughout 2022 and find himself settled into a significant role by season’s end.

 

Whether it’s opening games or closing them, Jax’s slider proving to be a cheat code of a pitch is a great development. With several high profile arms coming up with stronger chances of sticking in the rotation, the Twins developing deeper prospects such as Griffin Jax into possible bullpen pieces would be a huge development. Griffin Jax is an incredible story, but he’s elevated himself from a depth piece to a possible regular for the Twins in 2022. Do you agree?

— Latest Twins coverage from our writers
— Recent Twins discussion in our forums
— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
— Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here

View full article

[RJA]

I agree, Cody, especially if he can add a bit to his fastball, which might naturally happen with a switch to the bullpen.  In addition to the great slider, he has the right personality to thrive in the bullpen--he is composed and calm and does not seem to let things bother him.  All that leadership training at the academy paid dividends!  I suspect the FO has already penciled him in for a bullpen spot.

[Blyleven2011]

Jax had some good success last year in twins uniform  and his numbers in minors weren't all that bad +q¹q... watching him pitch I thought he could be suited better for the bullpen and dominate a couple of innings , it would be nice if he could generate more speed on the fast ball if moved to bullpen ,,,

Jax is very intelligent  and determined  ,,, I think a move to the bullpen would be good for the twins ( bulldog determined )  ,,, 

The twins need starters so we'll see where he fits in to start A season 

[Surelock]

The FO, managers, or the pitching coaches don’t have the luxury of pigeon holing a pitcher  this quickly as a relief pitcher.  The Twins have prospects only at this point, that haven’t pitched a full season.

Would the Twins have given up on Berrios after his first 14 games when he was 3 wins & 4 loses, an era of 8.00, pitching approximately the same amount of innings as Ober and Jax.  The FO has to feel good with what they saw last year from these two, knowing they did not pitch competitively in 2020. 

I wouldn’t be surprised to see them given chance to stay in the rotation most of this year (whenever it is).

[Doctor Gast]

Agree with everybody. Not all pitchers can make that switch (Fernando comes to mind). But I think Jax could prosper much like Duffy and May did in that role.

It'd be nice to have the FO give us a definite plan in how they plan to play out this pitching situation. So we all can be on the same page, instead of being left out in the lurch.

 

[Seansy]

Given how many higher upside SP prospects are behind him shifting Jax to the BP seems like the best chance for him to stick and be productive in the majors. Agree with this assessment 100%.

[Surelock]

Berrios was 3 wins & 7 losses. My error.

[mike8791]

Cody, you make some valid points but how can you ignore his horrific HR/9 rate of 2.5?  This is a no-no for any RP.  Sure, if he can rachet up his FB by 2-3 pts he might have a shot but what are the chances of that at this stage in his career?  Guys like Jax, Thorpe, Stashak, and probably Dobnak are roster fillers who should be jettisoned quickly if and when  our top pitching prospects develop.

[roger]

Count me among those who would like to see Jax continue as a starter to see if he can make that happen.  Yet, your points, Cody, are all reasonable,  

Could the Twins be planning on using the piggy-back approach to their starter concerns?  And if so, Jax appears to be a good part of one pair.  Whether he opens and goes 2-3 innings, or comes in in the fifth to pitch 3 innings, could be a valuable part of this year's Twins pitching staff.

Appreciate this young man's journey, coming out of the AFA and serving his nation (and ours) prior to getting on with his baseball career.  Now let's hope like H that baseball can get back on the field so we can begin following actual Twins games.

[blindeke]

Great idea!

[DocBauer]

His milb numbers are nothing special, but are solid for sure. And he has never been bitten that badly by the HR bug until his ML debut. I don't think his rookie introduction damns him for the future.

I do wonder if he might not stick in the the Saints rotation initially. You hate to give up on a rotation option too soon, and depending on how long the lockout lasts, he might be needed in the rotation. It would also afford him a little more time to continue refining his pitches.

But yes, I think his best role is going to be as a RP. I think his slider plays well there and I also agree that he seems to have a calm demeanor that should help him make that transition. But the FB has to play up for him to be better than a middle reliever. If it does, I could see him growing in to a possible set up man.

[jimbo92107]

Looks like a great idea. Griffin Jax has a little of that Eddie Guardado bulldog in him. Even if his heater doesn't add a couple mph, if he can spot it and keep using his slider/change combo, that could get a lot of guys out for a couple innings. If he does add a little more heat, then all the better. 

[bean5302]

I'm extremely skeptical Jax has any value. While Jax's slider shows great movement, it was not effective.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/griffin-jax-643377?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

There is some potential bad luck in there, but Jax didn't have a single effective pitch last year and the expected numbers were mostly pretty poor. Duffey's curveball was far better than Jax's slider when Duffey came up while Duffey's fastball was probably in the same area as Jax's.

I think it's a lot more likely Jax could fill a spot start or middle relief, low leverage role.

[Rosterman]

Unless the Twins make some bigtime adds, Jax will be a rotation arm just because he can give the team innings. It may not be pretty, but lots of Twins got hammered as a starter and developed prime careers out of the pen (Mahomes, Hawkins, Guardado, Perkins, Duffey).

 

If the team every starts winning, who knows...he might even be closer material. 

 

[HerbieFan]

IMO there is no question Jax starts the season in the bullpen...either at AAA or in the big leagues.  Like the mention of him working on how to use his fastball differently...similar to Odorizzi - up in the zone, to make it more effective.

[Trov]

I fully agree he is not likely to be a starter, but can fill a decent ben roll.  First, I remember when 93 was considered fast, not a determent to a pitcher as too slow.  My how times have changed, and I am not that old.  Radke averaged 89 on his fastball and got the job done just fine.  

Second, the speed is not super important if the breaking pitch is that good you throw it more often and just use the fastball to change up things sometimes.  As long as you can spot corners. 

[tony&rodney]

Jax does seem like a good bet to be on the staff. Does Jax make Duffey expendable and available to trade? Walls?

[cheeseheadgophfan]

On 3/5/2022 at 10:52 AM, mike8791 said:

Cody, you make some valid points but how can you ignore his horrific HR/9 rate of 2.5?  This is a no-no for any RP.  Sure, if he can rachet up his FB by 2-3 pts he might have a shot but what are the chances of that at this stage in his career?  Guys like Jax, Thorpe, Stashak, and probably Dobnak are roster fillers who should be jettisoned quickly if and when  our top pitching prospects develop.

Before someone yells at me, yes i'm too lazy to look it up.....however I'd be interested to see how many of those homeruns were given up after 50+ pitches.  It seemed to me last year that he really struggled getting through the lineup a third time and seemed to run out of gas.  Just my recollection.....don't shoot the messenger LOL