Crucial Seasons at Risk for Several Twins

[Nash Walker]

The lockout has sucked the joy out of baseball fans everywhere, and with Opening Day canceled and an end out of sight; we turn our attention to the impact on the Twins' roster. 

BetOnline recently released an over/under of 120.5 games for each team this summer. That means there’s an expectation of at least 40 games lost due to the ongoing lockout. There is no end in sight. That’s a terrible outcome, and the fear of losing half or even the *entire* season is valid. 

Plenty of Twins are hoping to leave 2021 in the rearview mirror. Unfortunately, they can’t show off their hard work until the season starts. It’s a crucial year for a handful of Major and Minor leaguers, but these five stick out in particular, with futures both with the team and in the league at stake. 

5. Bailey Ober
Ober went from a surprise addition to the 40-man roster to a rotation building block in 2021. Ober especially shined over his last ten starts, pitching to a 3.31 ERA with 51 strikeouts and just six walks in 49 innings.

The 6-foot-9, 260-pound breakout averaged only 73 pitches per outing over his last 12 starts, with the Twins highly cautious of his workload. Ober had never thrown 80 innings in a season before last year. With a lengthy injury history, does a delay benefit Ober’s health, or does the loss of games hurt his chances of building up?

4. Jhoan Duran
Speaking of innings, Duran must get a fair amount in 2022. After a solid 115 innings in 2019, Duran has all-of-a-sudden fallen behind, with only 16 game innings on his arm over the last two seasons. This summer, a hybrid Major-League role seemed perfect, but a delay could derail those plans. 

Ultimately, the Twins need to decide whether Duran is a future starter or reliever. This summer, he must catch up and log at least 60-80 innings to win a job in the Opening Day rotation in 2023. The lockout may dictate otherwise. 

3. Taylor Rogers
Contrary to some belief, Rogers had a terrific season before an untimely grand slam and injury threw a wrench in his bounce-back campaign. Rogers boasted a 2.45 ERA and 2.02 FIP with a 35% strikeout rate through July 8th. 

The Twins tendered Rogers in his final season of arbitration, expressing confidence that his middle-finger injury is in good shape. What the standout lefty needs is a complete and healthy season. The results will be there, but Rogers is likely desperate to show off his health with free agency looming next winter. 

2. Miguel Sanó
The Twins extended Sanó after a monstrous 2019 season where he hit .254/.362/.578 with 21 homers in the second half. The story is the same with Sanó: when he’s on, he’s lethal. When he’s off, he’s hardly playable. 2022 is the last guaranteed year on Sanó’s contract, with a $14 million Twins option for 2023.

Alex Kirilloff looks like the first baseman of the future, and the Twins were not scared to demote Sanó to a platoon role during his first-half struggles in 2021. Sanó was excellent as usual in the second half, but an entire, productive season might be enough for the Twins to invest in his future with the club. 

1. Royce Lewis
It’s been a ruthless three years for Lewis, who is ready to go for a critical summer. Lewis’ journey has been anything but linear, with plate struggles in 2019, a canceled 2020, and a season-ending injury in 2021. Now, a lockout that restricts him from playing. 

There’s a chance Lewis won’t appear in a real game for *three* years because of factors out of his control. It’s a terrible break for a fantastic person, and there’s no question Lewis is the most impacted by this fiasco. 

What do you think? Comment below!

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[awmonahan]

With Lewis already on the 40 man roster, I think the Twins may almost need to call him up in 2022 (health permitting) if he shows any positive signs. Seeing how he can compete at the highest levels is starting to become an urgent priority, and there have been enough positive reports about his make-up that you have to think he can handle success or failure. 

[TopGunn#22]

I think you nailed it Nash.  And combining Kiriloff and Sano into one was shrewd.  They are linked to each other for a number of reasons.  I think people are "fairly" comfortable about what Joe Ryan will provide.  But Ober MUST not falter.  And it doesn't matter if the Twins bring in some vet SP's thru trade or FA to bolster the roster or not.  Ober is being counted on heavily and then need him to continue to progress.  And I like that you saved Lewis for last.  He could be Buxton-esque in many ways, or never clear the hurdle of "health" first so he can let his talent flow.  These last 3 years for him have not helped his situation at all.  Twins fans still have high hopes.

[mikelink45]

I have never seen a sport that shoots itself in the foot so regularly unless I look at the demise of professional boxing which at the time of Ali/Fraser/Foreman might have been the most popular sport.  Then there were so many different men crowned champions by so many different bodies that nobody cared anymore - kind of like adding more teams to the playoffs so that the regular season does not count.  So my conclusion is that there is one more trial by fire  and that is the game itself.  Can they find a way to climb back in relevance?  Or do they need to pass out the steroids and have another game saving Sosa and McGwire HR chase?  Now that I think about it those two should be in the HOF just for getting the interest back in the game after the 1994 strike.  The league added interleague play in 1997, moved the Milwaukee Brewers to the AL and still the game was not back to where it wanted to be until the McGwire and Sosa excitement.  To this I will add that the team and team leadership of the Twins is also at a crucial place and the players you chose are excellent examples.  We can add - will Kepler finally learn what he needs to be productive, can Buxton give us a full MVP season, where do we play all our 2B and is there a SS?  

[Unwinder]

Did Sano end up losing those thirty pounds he was talking about? If not, an extra week to get it done could be a big win for him.

[RJA]

Nice article, Nash.  Clearly you hit the nail on the head with Lewis.  Of all the players anywhere in baseball, I am not sure there is another player who needs to play baseball and have a good season more than Lewis.  With all the crap going on in baseball now, it sure would be a great story if Lewis hit the ground running and had a great year.  He is such a good kid and has worked so hard to comeback that you have to pull for him. Let's play baseball!

[Rosterman]

Keep Sano or not will be the question.

 

Otherwise, a shorten season can be a rebuilding season, and beneficial to the whole organization. Forget minor league free agents and advance guys in the system.

 

 

[cHawk]

What a tough road it has been for Lewis with two consecutive lost seasons (one due to COVID and the other due to an ACL tear). Wish him all the best and I hope he becomes a core piece on the team one day.