Shifting Minnesota’s Defensive Focus in 2022

[Cody Christie]

Many teams have focused on their defensive alignment in recent years, and this has increased calls to ban the shift. So, how will Minnesota’s shifting strategy change in 2022?

During the 2021 season, the Twins shifted 33.8% of the time, which ranked 11th in baseball. Only four AL teams shifted more than the Twins, with the Tigers being the lone AL Central team with a higher percentage of shifts. This compares very similarly to the last full season (2019), when Minnesota shifted 35.5% of the time, corresponding with Rocco Baldelli’s first year as manager. 

Compared to 2020, Minnesota shifted less often (down 7.5%) as they shifted the seventh-most of any team. These changes in shifts are likely tied to the regular defensive players. Andrelton Simmons is a significantly better defensive shortstop than Jorge Polanco, so the Twins needed to move infielders around more regularly in 2020. There were also changes in statistical data, with a shortened schedule due to the pandemic. 

Last season, only two teams ranked higher than Minnesota (68.2%) when it came to shifting against left-handed batters. The Astros shifted an eye-popping 81.5% of the time versus lefties, while the Dodgers (68.6%) were just fractions ahead of the Twins. Minnesota ranked 19th when it came to shifting against righties which was down over 23% compared to 2019. The Twins shifted the second most of any team during that season against right-handed hitters. 

Shift rates across baseball have dropped when facing right-handed hitters while shifts against lefties continue to rise. Minnesota had the second-largest shifting decline when facing right-handed hitters, but the team’s defensive players likely played a role in this downturn. Offensively, right-handed hitting Miguel Sano pulls the ball over 75% of the time, and teams shift against him close to 69% of the time. This was the highest shift rate for a right-handed hitter in 2021 with over 400 pitches. If teams feel like they are gaining an advantage, shifting will continue to happen no matter the handedness of the batter.  

Moving forward, Minnesota’s shifting tendencies in 2022 will be dictated by who the team adds at shortstop and who is in the starting rotation. Carlos Correa and Trevor Story are the two biggest free-agent shortstops available, but there is no indication Minnesota is in the market for either of those players. However, a Simmons reunion may provide the best defensive alignment to help the team’s pitching staff.

Royce Lewis and Austin Martin, the team’s top two prospects, also fit into the defensive discussion for 2022. Lewis is coming back from a knee injury, and there’s hope he can at least begin his big-league career as a shortstop. Few believe Martin can stick at short, and his eventual defensive position will likely be second base or in the outfield. Both players can debut during the 2022 campaign, and Minnesota may shift more regularly to put them in the best defensive position.

Major League Baseball is also discussing banning the defensive shift in some capacity, which will have long-term ramifications on offensive and defensive numbers. As recently as this summer, baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred spoke on why the shift could be banned. 

“Let’s just say you regulated the shift by requiring two infielders on each side of second base. What does that do? It makes the game look like what it looked like when I was 12 years old,” he said. “It’s not change. It’s kind of restoration, right? That’s why people are in favor of it. And they do believe, I think front offices, in general, believe it would have a positive effect on the play of the game.” 

Not everyone will agree, but the Twins may have to shift their strategy if there are rule changes for the coming season. Do you think MLB needs to ban shifts? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Karbo]

I have mixed feelings about the ban. The ban started because so many players got pull happy trying to hit homeruns which led to todays all or nothing type of game that I really don't like as much. The hope was that more players would try to go the other way to beat the shift but that never happened. I don't really know what banning the shift will accomplish other than perhaps making the game last longer with more singles, and perhaps more double plays. IMHO they would be better off to continue to try to find a way to "deaden" the ball a little bit to decrease the lift or carry somehow if possible without messing up the rest of the game.

[strumdatjag]

My favorite play is a lefty bunting to a third base area emptied by “the shift”.   Teach it at all levels.  

[mikelink45]

What will be the shift in strategy once baseball gets tired of the "three true outcomes" - a phrase I have grown to hate.  Will some wildcat team put the Go-go White Sox, the 1976 Oakland A's, the Herzog Cardinals, or even the KC championship tean approach together and because of the fact that teams are not used to it - if they succeed copy cats will start.  I do hope and dream that happens.

""Whether you steal or not, you're changing the rhythm of the game." - Hall of Famer Joe Morgan" 

By the way - Minnesota ranked 27 in stolen base attempts per game in 2021. Which was up from 2020.  And these were up from 2018 when we ranked last in MLB.  Why? 

In 2021 we weren't the Bomba squad anymore and we were losing.  Maybe a change would have been warranted. 

[High heat]

I don’t think a total shift ban is necessary but I think forcing all infielders to play on the dirt.  No more second basemen in shallow RF. Or maybe forcing a team to designate before at bat if you want to play 4 outfielders they have to stick with that throughout the at bat.  Guy steals second you are still only allowed the 3 infielder or guy attempts to bunt or changes his approach with 2 strikes you can’t change. 

[GNess]

I don't like the entire cynical premise of the shift. In many sports there are rules as to how you can align your players. I also agree MLB teams need to stop the group think and have some teams which emphasize speed, hitting the other way and putting the ball in play. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

What will be the shift in strategy once baseball gets tired of the "three true outcomes"

Power wins ballgames. The only way baseball will "tire" of the strategy is if HR are harder to come by. Until then they'll try to build a lineup of 9 guys who hit 30 HR.

[chpettit19]

If they're going to ban "shifts" I hope the rule they put in place is that you need to have 4 guys "on the dirt." That gets the game a little closer to how we all grew up playing it. 2 guys on each side of the bag doesn't really do much to change things as the SS or 2B can still stand basically behind second and take away those up the middle hits. But 4 guys on the dirt stops the missiles to right being caught by the 2B playing 45 feet into the grass. 

I'm not a proponent of banning shifts, though. Teach your guys to take a 2 strike approach every now and then if it's such a hinderance. Have more tricks in your bag to be able to adjust to game situations. Unless the problem really is that pitching has just gotten too good (high velo, movement, etc.) that we're testing the bounds of the human ability to hit it. But we see guys shorten up and go the other way all the time so I don't think that's the case yet. Down 2, guys on 1 and 2 in the 7th with a lefty up and they shift all the way over? Lay down a bunt. I don't feel bad for you hitting into the shift if the game situation says taking an easy single on the bunt to put the tying run in scoring position is a reasonable play. Top 1, 2 outs, nobody on and you want to hack away to try to launch? Have at it. It's your best chance to score that inning. 

There's always going to be guys who are limited and can't both pull for power and go the other way. Those guys are just screwed. You're going to get shifted. I don't blame a team for taking away your 1 trick if that's all you have. They're not going to force Joe Ryan to not throw anymore than 50% fastballs by rule. Have more tricks and it isn't a problem. Don't take all strategy out of the game to make the lesser players better. Joey Gallo is good enough to hit the other way if he wants with 2 strikes. He just doesn't want to.

[DJL44]

The situation that had me yelling at the TV was during the World Series. Ozzie Albies was up and hitting lefty. He only hits .237/.295/.454 from that side of the plate. They moved the fielders to the right of where shortstop normally covers; left side of the infield is open. He's a pretty fast baserunner. All he had to do was drop a bunt to the left side. Nope, grounded out to the second baseman.

If you're a power hitter who normally posts 1000 OPS then do your normal thing. If you struggle to break a .750 OPS and they give you a base hit, take it.

[Doctor Gast]

Basically I'm against the anti-shift rule. IMO baseball is a challenge between the pitcher, hitter and the defense. There's a constant adjusting to get an edge over the other to survive and thrive. 

IMO it was ridiculous having Simmons shifting so much against lefties, where often he cut off grounders that Polanco could get yet grounders would get by him and 3B. But this year if we get an inferior SS, things would be very different.

[strumdatjag]

4 hours ago, High heat said:

I don’t think a total shift ban is necessary but I think forcing all infielders to play on the dirt.  No more second basemen in shallow RF. Or maybe forcing a team to designate before at bat if you want to play 4 outfielders they have to stick with that throughout the at bat.  Guy steals second you are still only allowed the 3 infielder or guy attempts to bunt or changes his approach with 2 strikes you can’t change. 

No problem with no more than 3 in the outfield (even short field).   But the Third basemen and first basemen must be allowed to play on the infield grass if a bunt is suspected. 

[tony&rodney]

Let the defensive players line up however they want to for each hitter. In 1968 our kid team shifted against a specific powerful hitter. SS, 2B, and 1B were all on the edge of the outfield grass and a one hop line drive to 1B was a 3-1 putout. Strategy has always been a part of the game. It is more obvious today because it is more frequent due to the employment of people whose job entails crunching numbers. The only thing I can offer as a change is that a batter must keep in the box once the at bat begins, with a quick look to the 3B coach, and that pitcher's need to get the ball back and go to the pitching rubber. By the way, every single player in today's game grew up playing quickly. 

[jorgenswest]

I think a ban will result in unintended and unforeseen consequences. I can’t see the unforeseen but I do have a thought on one consequence I don’t want.

The shifting has most impact on upper cut pull hitters. The same players helping to drive the strike out rates up and balls in play down. If shifting is banned we will see more of these one dimensional hitters who will fare better in those conditions.

Let the game adjust to the shift and produce more bat control line drive hitters who use the whole field and bring more speed to the game. We don’t need a rule change to fix this. We need teams that can recognize the talent and skills to beat it.

[The Mad King]

No to banning the shift. Let the hitters learn - take your chances. Nobody complains about outfielders moving, let the fielders line up where they want. Play ball!!

[Blyleven2011]

Strategy is part of the game ,,,

Allow the shift but keep it on the dirt  .

 

Adjustments  ...

Hitters need to make improvements hitting to all fields ,,,, 

What's the sense in paying 2 mlb hitting coaches a salary when all they tell you is loft and carry 

[Minny505]

23 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Power wins ballgames. The only way baseball will "tire" of the strategy is if HR are harder to come by. Until then they'll try to build a lineup of 9 guys who hit 30 HR.

This is the glaring fact in the shift discussion.

I've always thought the most enjoyable way to correct for the shift would be to move outfield fences back. It would result in more singles, doubles, and triples, and less home runs. It would be so much fun to see so much movement on the field of play again.

I don't expect this will happen, but who knows? Baltimore could be setting a ballpark trend once again.

[mikelink45]

I know the phrase "Power wins games" is popular in this thread, but I believe Rickey Henderson knew how to win without power.  And so did a number of teams in the past.  

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I know the phrase "Power wins games" is popular in this thread, but I believe Rickey Henderson knew how to win without power.  And so did a number of teams in the past.  

Rickey hit nearly 300 HR.

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Rickey hit nearly 300 HR.

And stole 1406 bases and scored 1115 runs.  

[TopGunn#22]

I'm just so sick of the players and owners right now I don't care if they ban shifts or not.  I'm just sick of the whole bunch of them.  

[The Mad King]

Well... Now that they're going to ban the shift, I suggest they draw out little chalk circles where each player is allowed to lineup. But why stop there? Extend the lines to show where each player is allowed to chase the ball. Like table hockey. Hey just because your cf has great range it doesn't mean he should be able to catch balls that your slow right fielder can't get to right? Why should you allow the pitcher to cover first base just because the first baseman got pulled off the bag? Less chance of him getting injured that way too. Oh yeah, that bigger base. I'm sure that's going to help...

[AceWrigley]

I'm not in favor of banning the shifts but if they do I hope they limit it to 2 infielders have to be on each side of the diamond with the limit allowing a  defender to "straddle" the line between home and 2b.