The Twins Shouldn't Trade for an Ace

[LastOnePicked]

3 hours ago, roger said:

Could the FO be planning on piggy-backing 8 starters with two pitching 3-4 innings each every fourth game?

This is a very good point, and the FO hinted at this recently, if I'm not mistaken. I think the Rays have done this with young pitchers, and it might be the right move for this staff at this point. I still would have preferred 1-2 solid FA signings, but this is a reasonable Plan B for an organization that needs to learn how to develop frontline starters.

[jimbo92107]

Blazo, Canto, Windo, Duraino, Enlow, Dobsie, Valdemort, Bundo, Cotto, Jaxo, Sando, boom I got your man!

All those be good bets for good starters, maybe better. First four got major whiff power, an essential ace ingredient. The rest got some ingredients for a good sauce, a little this and that... we'll see what cooks up in spring. 

Once again, this ain't the year to trade the farm for no one-year has-been so-so veteran. This is the year to toss some corn on the griddle and see what pops, baby! Pinch of salt. Hope it ain't an elbow!

[Jacksson]

As stated previously on other discussion threads, the KEY to ANY deal with the A's is to help them with their stated goal of REDUCING PAYROLL.  Not only does that approach give the Twins: (1) an advantage over other teams, (2) the ability to secure Montas as opposed to either Bassitt or Maneaa, (3) the opportunity to MINIMIZE the player cost going back to the A's, and (4) the opportunity to fill more holes on their own team than just starting pitching.  By agreeing to take back SS Elvis Andrus and OF Stephen Piscotty in addition to Montas, the Twins would be saving the A's $20 MM in 2022.  This would be a good starting point for negotiations.  This kind of contract manipulation happens in pro sports all the time.  Question is can Flavey & Levine do enough of a sales job on Jimmy Pohlad  to get him to open up his money purse and risk the escape of the moths that reside there?

[bean5302]

Cavaco = PTBNL at this point. Can't hit. Can't field and 3 years in the system. It looked like he was maybe turning a corner around mid-year when he tanked hard again. It will take a small miracle for Cavaco not to wash out of baseball this year.

[Expression451]

Any time you have a chance to acquire an ace and you don’t do it as a GM you fail to do your job. I know many here value prospects and Twins prospects above all else. The facts are that most prospects don’t make it, and one of the comments above said it well. None of these prospects are top of the line guys, and as much as I personally love watching Arraez ABs his knees are never going to get better. Duran is likely a BP guy, and Strotman doesn’t project high. The SS might not even be in the organization had he not been a first round pick.

My question is why does anyone think that this trade inspires action from the A’s? 

If the Twins can get 2 years of an ace for that group of players it’s a GM’s duty to do it. 

[TopGunn#22]

The reason why you do a trade like this is to compete in 2022 and BEYOND.  The strategic reason you do a trade like this is you need stability in your starting rotation.  Ryan and Ober are 2nd year guys.  Everyone else with any upside is a rookie.  Even if you piggyback 8 SP's each going 3-4 innings you will have some rocky outings that put an incredible strain on your starting staff & bullpen.  You don't make this trade thinking only of 2022.  You make it to retain Montas and build through your young SP's while protecting their arms/innings/pitches as much as you can throughout the stresses of a 162 game regular season.  The only time your focus should be short,  is Game #7 of the World Series.

[Major League Ready]

9 hours ago, Expression451 said:

Any time you have a chance to acquire an ace and you don’t do it as a GM you fail to do your job. I know many here value prospects and Twins prospects above all else. The facts are that most prospects don’t make it, and one of the comments above said it well. None of these prospects are top of the line guys, and as much as I personally love watching Arraez ABs his knees are never going to get better. Duran is likely a BP guy, and Strotman doesn’t project high. The SS might not even be in the organization had he not been a first round pick.

My question is why does anyone think that this trade inspires action from the A’s? 

If the Twins can get 2 years of an ace for that group of players it’s a GM’s duty to do it. 

I hear (see) this proclamation often but never with any proof of concept.  In other words, it’s always grand proclamation with no evidence to support it.  It sure would be great if someone would actually provide evidence supporting this assertion.
First, we have to define established.  Montas best two season accumulated 7.1 WAR so let’s use that as the standard.  How many SPs were successful acquisitions for teams with below average revenue teams acquired for prospects?  List them and I will name 4:1 in favor of players that went on to produce at least 7 WAR over two seasons where the player had never produced more than 1.75 WAR (half the standard) in any season.  

The three teams with by far the most success over the past 20 years are Oakland / Cleveland and Tampa.  It is very clear their strategy / practices are the opposite of what you insist is essential.  Yet, these three are the most successful small/mid market teams.  

Montas had produced .2 WAR when he was acquired for established players.  Manaea was acquired for a rental while still a prospect.  Bassit was acquired after 1 professional season with .7 WAR in exchange for 1 year of Jeff Samardzija.  BTW … They got a guy named Semien in that trade as well.
Cleveland acquired Clevinger / Bauer and Carrasco and Kluber were all acquired by trading established players for prospects.

History suggests that trading for prospects has been far more important than trading for established top of the rotation SPs in terms of building a winner in a small / mid-market.  It would be great if someone (anyone) would provide evidence to support this often-made claim.   
 

[Trov]

I would not endorse a trade for an "ace" at this point.  We have a lot of arms that need to see what they got.  Many people claim we will not do well this season because we have no proven pitchers, but until they get a chance to prove themselves we will never know.  Also, I see little point to bring in a guy we will most likely just look to send out again either next off-season or at trade deadline this or next year.  Unless you believe Duran will not be MLB level guy then I would be open to trade, but if team believes he will be an MLB guy, I keep what we got right now.  

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

The reason why you do a trade like this is to compete in 2022 and BEYOND.  The strategic reason you do a trade like this is you need stability in your starting rotation.  Ryan and Ober are 2nd year guys.  Everyone else with any upside is a rookie.  Even if you piggyback 8 SP's each going 3-4 innings you will have some rocky outings that put an incredible strain on your starting staff & bullpen.  You don't make this trade thinking only of 2022.  You make it to retain Montas and build through your young SP's while protecting their arms/innings/pitches as much as you can throughout the stresses of a 162 game regular season.  The only time your focus should be short,  is Game #7 of the World Series.

I don't disagree with the premise, and many others talk about going for Montas with the intention of extending him. Why do we think that'd be the move the Twins make? Unless you're expecting Montas to be an ace and take a team friendly 4 year deal why do we think the Twins would extend him? We could all think it'd be great for the Twins to sign guys like Berrios or Montas or whoever to long-term deals, but there's more than enough evidence to say that isn't a move this FO has any intention of making so why would we want them to trade for someone who they're not going to extend?

[Karbo]

I would be against giving up so many young players for 1 arm, at least at this point. The Twins are so far away from contention it just doesnt make sense to me. I would rather use Arraez in a trade to get a stopgap shortstop or mid rotation arm like Odo and add in Pineda on a FA contract. Get a couple of guys that can help guide the young pitchers along. We should get our guy back and healthy from TJ surgery next season, and that to me will prbably be a better time to go for it. By then, we should have a better idea about some of our young arms. They will be 2 years out of the lost covid season and hopefully some will stay healthy enough to get innings in. If not, that will tell us plenty also.

[Dman]

I would be fine with the Twins taking a risk on trading for Montas but only if the Twins could extend him.  While you can never say never I think we need to keep in mind that the Twins have been averse to long term extensions for pitchers.  So assuming they would be willing or even able to get an extension done it goes against all previous club history (for recent history see Jose Berrios).

As others have already stated with all the unknowns in the rotation it feels like the prospect cost and timing are far from ideal to only have Montas for two years.  I think the OP has this right. Sure the Twins could push all their chips onto the table this year but why do that now when the odds\timing seem so poor?

It just seems far more prudent to build a young established rotation and then over pay for the guy who could put you over the top. The Twins are not currently in that position.  A little patience could take this team a long way.  We need some of those pitching prospect's to pan out and that is risky as well but given where we are, I still think that is the best play.

[bean5302]

10 hours ago, Expression451 said:

Any time you have a chance to acquire an ace and you don’t do it as a GM you fail to do your job. I know many here value prospects and Twins prospects above all else. The facts are that most prospects don’t make it, and one of the comments above said it well. None of these prospects are top of the line guys, and as much as I personally love watching Arraez ABs his knees are never going to get better. Duran is likely a BP guy, and Strotman doesn’t project high. The SS might not even be in the organization had he not been a first round pick.

My question is why does anyone think that this trade inspires action from the A’s? 

If the Twins can get 2 years of an ace for that group of players it’s a GM’s duty to do it. 

Any team could acquire an ace at any time. Literally, every single day of the regular or off season. The Pittsburgh Pirates could get Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers, for instance. It's all a matter of what the team wants to pay.

Aside from that, what difference does it make if the Twins have Montas for 2 years? They gain two or three wins per season, maybe? They avoided 90 losses last year by the skin of their teeth and good fortune with a much more trustworthy roster than they have right now.

[KirbyDome89]

On 2/27/2022 at 8:14 AM, beckmt said:

I still stand by my comments in other threads.  When you have the number of near major league ready pitchers the Twins now have, you have to find out how many of them will step up and become viable major league pieces. I hope we will be suprised by a few, but out of about a dozen, we should be able to find 4 - 6 major league pieces that are decent.  If we are lucky maybe 1 - 2 will become at least #2 type starters.

There's nothing stopping the Twins from "finding out what they have," while simultaneously adding proven talent. If they end up with 2 frontline guys that's more than lucky; none of this group profiles as such. Rather than holding them accountable, we're giving the FO a pass to waste a season while waffling about which direction to go. 

[beckmt]

6 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

There's nothing stopping the Twins from "finding out what they have," while simultaneously adding proven talent. If they end up with 2 frontline guys that's more than lucky; none of this group profiles as such. Rather than holding them accountable, we're giving the FO a pass to waste a season while waffling about which direction to go. 

I remind you neither Kluber of Bieber were supposed to have ace stuff.  My point is we just don't know, and you might have us give away the ones that were to step up.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

There's nothing stopping the Twins from "finding out what they have," while simultaneously adding proven talent. If they end up with 2 frontline guys that's more than lucky; none of this group profiles as such. Rather than holding them accountable, we're giving the FO a pass to waste a season while waffling about which direction to go. 

Trading stops a team from "finding out what they have." If you trade Duran you are no longer able to see what you have in Duran. The Twins could add FA pitching without losing the ability to see what they have in their prospects, but this thread is about trading for an ace. Trading a player stops you from finding out what you have with them.

I'm not giving the FO a pass to waste a season while waffling, because I don't think they're waffling. I think they've had a plan in place since the last half of last year. I don't think the plan included spending large amounts of money on pitching in FA. I don't think the plan included trading any of the near ready prospect arms for veteran arms. I will hold them accountable if they produce no quality major league starters this season. If Ryan and Ober fall apart and no prospects step-up and claim future rotation spots I'll call for their jobs. But I don't see them as waffling so I won't hold them accountable for that. Their plan not matching what some fans want isn't waffling, it's having a different plan. Their plan looks crystal clear to me. It's just a matter of whether or not it works.

[Twins33]

I have no idea what the Twins should do. I am always for adding good players at all times but this offseason is weird. I would have signed many of the FA SP that already signed and Bundy was not one of them. 
 

I am technically for doing a trade that improves the team, but is that Montas? Yes, he improves upon what they have right this minute but this would be the Berrios situation all over again. They didn’t want to sign Berrios to a reasonable deal. Why would they extend a similar pitcher in Montas? They’ll give up assets to acquire him and a year from now it seems likely that they would then “have to” trade him and it’s possible for the return to be less than whatever the Twins may give the A’s depending upon Montas’ performance. 
 

it’s a dumb situation all around which is why I have no idea what I think they should do. The ship I wanted has already sailed. I’d rather see Winder than more Bundy’s and if the Twins are just going to do with Montas what they did with Berrios…what’s the point? Get good players. Keep good players. 

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Trading stops a team from "finding out what they have." If you trade Duran you are no longer able to see what you have in Duran. The Twins could add FA pitching without losing the ability to see what they have in their prospects, but this thread is about trading for an ace. Trading a player stops you from finding out what you have with them.

I'm not giving the FO a pass to waste a season while waffling, because I don't think they're waffling. I think they've had a plan in place since the last half of last year. I don't think the plan included spending large amounts of money on pitching in FA. I don't think the plan included trading any of the near ready prospect arms for veteran arms. I will hold them accountable if they produce no quality major league starters this season. If Ryan and Ober fall apart and no prospects step-up and claim future rotation spots I'll call for their jobs. But I don't see them as waffling so I won't hold them accountable for that. Their plan not matching what some fans want isn't waffling, it's having a different plan. Their plan looks crystal clear to me. It's just a matter of whether or not it works.

You're also receiving a known commodity of equivalent value. My point was that they can audition plenty of guys while adding a stable rotation arm; the two aren't mutually exclusive. Sure, FA was an abject failure, but that shouldn't be a rationale for them to eschew other means of acquiring talent. 

In other words, the prospects are the fulcrum on which the FO will pivot towards either a full on rebuild or actually committing to supplementing the roster. I think that's more of a stall/half measure than an actual plan. 

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Trading stops a team from "finding out what they have." If you trade Duran you are no longer able to see what you have in Duran. The Twins could add FA pitching without losing the ability to see what they have in their prospects, but this thread is about trading for an ace. Trading a player stops you from finding out what you have with them.

I'm not giving the FO a pass to waste a season while waffling, because I don't think they're waffling. I think they've had a plan in place since the last half of last year. I don't think the plan included spending large amounts of money on pitching in FA. I don't think the plan included trading any of the near ready prospect arms for veteran arms. I will hold them accountable if they produce no quality major league starters this season. If Ryan and Ober fall apart and no prospects step-up and claim future rotation spots I'll call for their jobs. But I don't see them as waffling so I won't hold them accountable for that. Their plan not matching what some fans want isn't waffling, it's having a different plan. Their plan looks crystal clear to me. It's just a matter of whether or not it works.

"Hope" is not a plan. That much seems crystal clear to me.

 

And currently, that's all the front office has, is hope. They don't know who, or when, nor even if. The "hope" is that at some point in the future (2023, at the absolute earliest?) enough minor league pitching (can't say which ones) develops into enough quality to contend.

Again...that's not a plan.

 

[chpettit19]

Just now, USAFChief said:

"Hope" is not a plan. That much seems crystal clear to me.

 

And currently, that's all the front office has, is hope. They don't know who, or when, nor even if. The "hope" is that at some point in the future (2023, at the absolute earliest?) enough minor league pitching (can't say which ones) develops into enough quality to contend.

Again...that's not a plan.

 

That is a plan. In fact that's every major league baseball team's plan. You just don't like that plan. No team builds their team entirely through trades for major leaguers or FA signings. Prospects hitting is the lifeblood of every major league organization. Hope is all any team has. Christian Yelich signed a really nice extension in Milwaukee after an MVP season and he's been basically league average since. Cody Bellinger was supposed to be the star of a Dodger lineup full of stars after his MVP season and he's been well below league average since. The Padres traded everyone outside their top 3 prospects for pitching, pitching, and more pitching and they were basically a league average pitching team that missed the playoffs after collapsing because all that pitching failed for 1 reason or another. The Braves built their pitching staff by refusing to trade any pitching prospects. The Giants grabbed a bunch of reclamation projects to fill their rotation. One of them won the world series and the other had the best record in baseball last year.

Trading for Montas or any other starter is still just having "hope" as a plan. Yes, you have a better data pool on your hope for success when you get guys who have had major league success before, but it's still just hope. You seem to be confusing previous ML success with future ML success. Every team's plan is hope. Trading for Montas this season doesn't guarantee he throws up a 3.37 ERA in 32 starts in 2022 since before that he'd never made more than 16 major league starts. Trading for Luis Castillo doesn't guarantee you a 3.40 ERA in 32 starts like he had in 2019 since last year he had a 3.98 ERA in his 33 starts. Fans seem to be confusing trading for MLB vets as a sure thing compared to relying on a dozen plus prospect arms. It isn't. Blake Snell had a 4.20 ERA for the Padres last year after they traded for him to be the final piece to a WS puzzle. Would that type of performance save the 2022 Twins?

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, beckmt said:

I remind you neither Kluber of Bieber were supposed to have ace stuff.  My point is we just don't know, and you might have us give away the ones that were to step up.

Sure, and for every one of them there are 100x as many guys taken at, or above, their draft positions that wash out without making any sort of impact. 

[chpettit19]

33 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

You're also receiving a known commodity of equivalent value. My point was that they can audition plenty of guys while adding a stable rotation arm; the two aren't mutually exclusive. Sure, FA was an abject failure, but that shouldn't be a rationale for them to eschew other means of acquiring talent. 

In other words, the prospects are the fulcrum on which the FO will pivot towards either a full on rebuild or actually committing to supplementing the roster. I think that's more of a stall/half measure than an actual plan. 

There's no such thing as a known commodity. In this piece Montas was the guy in the suggested trade. Have you checked out his career numbers? He's far from a known commodity. He was very good last year. Really bad in 2020. Good, but hurt in 2019. He's started more than 16 games exactly 1 time in his 5 year major league career. Does he provide less risk than the prospects? For sure. But people seem to think you're guaranteed to get a top 6 Cy Young finisher if you trade for him. You're not. 

The prospects on any team are the fulcrum. Ask the Yankees how easy it is to build a WS contender without hitting on your prospects. Ask the Dodgers. Ask literally every major league baseball team. If the Twins get 0 big league pitching out of their current crop they're toast no matter what. The prospects are the absolute key to the franchise. Always have been. Always will be. I'm certainly not suggesting to never trade them. Should be willing to trade anyone at anytime if the price is right. But suggesting banking on prospects is some kind of crazy strategy is to ignore the entire philosophy of major league baseball in the 21st century.

[KirbyDome89]

7 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

There's no such thing as a known commodity. In this piece Montas was the guy in the suggested trade. Have you checked out his career numbers? He's far from a known commodity. He was very good last year. Really bad in 2020. Good, but hurt in 2019. He's started more than 16 games exactly 1 time in his 5 year major league career. Does he provide less risk than the prospects? For sure. But people seem to think you're guaranteed to get a top 6 Cy Young finisher if you trade for him. You're not. 

The prospects on any team are the fulcrum. Ask the Yankees how easy it is to build a WS contender without hitting on your prospects. Ask the Dodgers. Ask literally every major league baseball team. If the Twins get 0 big league pitching out of their current crop they're toast no matter what. The prospects are the absolute key to the franchise. Always have been. Always will be. I'm certainly not suggesting to never trade them. Should be willing to trade anyone at anytime if the price is right. But suggesting banking on prospects is some kind of crazy strategy is to ignore the entire philosophy of major league baseball in the 21st century.

I'm not making a case for Montas specifically, but in your scenario he's a known commodity in the sense that if the Twins were to deal for him, they're expecting 2ish production based on a track record, albeit limited. They're giving up a set of players with zero major league success who themselves have minor league warts. Nobody is arguing a Cy Young finalist is coming back. 

Using a farm system to graduate players incrementally and supplement an existing framework is, of course, utilized by every organization. Throwing 5-7 arms (including Ober and Ryan) into a rotation that's Dylan Bundy and nobody else isn't remotely the same thing. 

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I'm not making a case for Montas specifically, but in your scenario he's a known commodity in the sense that if the Twins were to deal for him, they're expecting 2ish production based on a track record, albeit limited. They're giving up a set of players with zero major league success who themselves have minor league warts. Nobody is arguing a Cy Young finalist is coming back. 

Using a farm system to graduate players incrementally and supplement an existing framework is, of course, utilized by every organization. Throwing 5-7 arms (including Ober and Ryan) into a rotation that's Dylan Bundy and nobody else isn't remotely the same thing. 

He's not known. There's no such thing. He's a higher data pool educated guess. Every player is. Albert Pujols was a "known commodity" when the Angels signed him. They most definitely did not get what they were expecting. Blake Snell was a "known commodity" for the Padres last year. They were expecting 2ish production based on a track record, albeit limited. They got a worse pitcher than Bailer Ober. Yu Darvish was also a "known commodity" for the Padres last year. They were expecting 2ish production based on a track record, and not a limited one. They got a worse pitcher than Bailey Ober. JA Happ was a "known commodity" for the Twins last year. They were expecting 4ish production based on a track record, and not a limited one. They didn't get anywhere close to that. Alexander Colome was a "known commodity" for the Twins last year. They were expecting league average or better closer production based on a track record, and not a limited one. They got nowhere near that.

There's no such thing as a known commodity in professional sports. Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, Trevor Bauer, Luis Castillo, Francisco Lindor, Nelson Cruz (after his trade to the Rays), and I can go on and on and on listing "known commodities" that were anything but. There's no such thing. There's players that make fans feel better and front offices have more confidence in, but there's nothing known. That's the entire point of sports. Look no further than the Padres to see how "winning the offseason" and bringing in a bunch of high paid FAs or big prospect capital trades of "known commodities" is no more a sure thing than throwing 5-7 arms into a rotation that's Dylan Bundy and nobody else. It just makes fans feel better that their teams are actually "trying."

[KirbyDome89]

27 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

He's not known. There's no such thing. He's a higher data pool educated guess. Every player is. Albert Pujols was a "known commodity" when the Angels signed him. They most definitely did not get what they were expecting. Blake Snell was a "known commodity" for the Padres last year. They were expecting 2ish production based on a track record, albeit limited. They got a worse pitcher than Bailer Ober. Yu Darvish was also a "known commodity" for the Padres last year. They were expecting 2ish production based on a track record, and not a limited one. They got a worse pitcher than Bailey Ober. JA Happ was a "known commodity" for the Twins last year. They were expecting 4ish production based on a track record, and not a limited one. They didn't get anywhere close to that. Alexander Colome was a "known commodity" for the Twins last year. They were expecting league average or better closer production based on a track record, and not a limited one. They got nowhere near that.

There's no such thing as a known commodity in professional sports. Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, Trevor Bauer, Luis Castillo, Francisco Lindor, Nelson Cruz (after his trade to the Rays), and I can go on and on and on listing "known commodities" that were anything but. There's no such thing. There's players that make fans feel better and front offices have more confidence in, but there's nothing known. That's the entire point of sports. Look no further than the Padres to see how "winning the offseason" and bringing in a bunch of high paid FAs or big prospect capital trades of "known commodities" is no more a sure thing than throwing 5-7 arms into a rotation that's Dylan Bundy and nobody else. It just makes fans feel better that their teams are actually "trying."

You're arguing semantics. Teams are paying for a track record of MLB success, even if it's a limited one. I don't have solid numbers off the top of my head, but I'd imagine that as far as volatility goes, prospects are very likely the higher risk commodity. 

Boiling it down to "nothing is a sure thing," and equating SD's rotation to the current state of MN's is a stretch to say the least. 

[chpettit19]

23 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

You're arguing semantics. Teams are paying for a track record of MLB success, even if it's a limited one. I don't have solid numbers off the top of my head, but I'd imagine that as far as volatility goes, prospects are very likely the higher risk commodity. 

Boiling it down to "nothing is a sure thing," and equating SD's rotation to the current state of MN's is a stretch to say the least. 

My point is that this idea that some fans present of the only options the Twins having for competing in 2022, or the even worse premise of the only way the FO can be said to actually be trying, is if they trade for these "known commodities" is false. That's the general idea of this piece. People throw around the names of As and Reds pitchers and Rodon as if we just need to snag one or 2 of those guys and suddenly then we have a chance even if the prospects don't hit. That's not true. 1. because the As and Reds pitchers, or Rodon, are far from sure things, and 2. the prospects are the key to anything 2022 and beyond no matter who they'd bring in.

The Twins rotation is so far from being competitive on paper that it doesn't make any sense to trade any of the prospect arms for major league guys because the major league guys being discussed are nowhere near sure things and they need as many shots at hitting on prospects as possible. If you trade the 2 who become legit MLB starters and are stuck with the 8 to 10 who aren't, getting Montas and Rodon (just picking random names) doesn't do anything for 2022 and now you're stuck in an even worse spot (news flash: this FO isn't extending anyone they trade for) moving forward as you don't have anyone in the rotation who's a "known commodity" and you're out of prospects. The FO wouldn't get credit for "trying" by making those moves and the fans would be calling for their heads.

During the offseason fans just want to feel like the team is trying. I see people on here everyday saying the FO has no plan because the plan the FO pretty clearly has isn't the one they want executed. Fans want names they know because they feel like they're sure things. They aren't. At all. 1 to 1 someone with major league success has a better chance of being successful moving forward, but 12 prospects to 1 major leaguer with prior success isn't the same math. Especially the guys being thrown around as targets. They're called "front of the rotation" pieces on here like we're talking deGrom or Scherzer as targets. We're talking about guys who have been #2 and 3s and had up and down careers, or no sustained success, but fans are so enamored with their names that they're convinced that's the only way the Twins can succeed. 

The Twins have a massive hole at SS. Pretty darn big one in LF. And a whole bunch all over the pitching staff. This piece is suggesting that trading prospects for an "ace" isn't smart because there's so many other holes that the team wouldn't be competitive even with that "ace" (ace is in quotes because nobody the fans are suggesting the Twins target are aces. If the Reds and As were loaded with aces they would've been in the playoffs last year). I'm adding that these "aces" aren't the sure things and rotation savers some fans are suggesting they are. Bringing in arms with 1 or 2 years of control left who are at best #2 starters as defacto aces isn't the recipe for success some people are making it out to be. It's a comfort blanket for fans to feel like the team is doing something. I'm not interested in a comfort blanket for 2022 to appease fans but hurts their real chances for sustained success. Using SD's rotation is just evidence of my argument that these trades aren't the sure things fans are making them out to be.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

 ... bringing in a bunch of high paid FAs or big prospect capital trades of "known commodities" is no more a sure thing than throwing 5-7 arms into a rotation that's Dylan Bundy and nobody else. 

This is simply not true. Not close to true.

 

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

My point is that this idea that some fans present of the only options the Twins having for competing in 2022, or the even worse premise of the only way the FO can be said to actually be trying, is if they trade for these "known commodities" is false. That's the general idea of this piece. People throw around the names of As and Reds pitchers and Rodon as if we just need to snag one or 2 of those guys and suddenly then we have a chance even if the prospects don't hit. That's not true. 1. because the As and Reds pitchers, or Rodon, are far from sure things, and 2. the prospects are the key to anything 2022 and beyond no matter who they'd bring in.

The Twins rotation is so far from being competitive on paper that it doesn't make any sense to trade any of the prospect arms for major league guys because the major league guys being discussed are nowhere near sure things and they need as many shots at hitting on prospects as possible. If you trade the 2 who become legit MLB starters and are stuck with the 8 to 10 who aren't, getting Montas and Rodon (just picking random names) doesn't do anything for 2022 and now you're stuck in an even worse spot (news flash: this FO isn't extending anyone they trade for) moving forward as you don't have anyone in the rotation who's a "known commodity" and you're out of prospects. The FO wouldn't get credit for "trying" by making those moves and the fans would be calling for their heads.

During the offseason fans just want to feel like the team is trying. I see people on here everyday saying the FO has no plan because the plan the FO pretty clearly has isn't the one they want executed. Fans want names they know because they feel like they're sure things. They aren't. At all. 1 to 1 someone with major league success has a better chance of being successful moving forward, but 12 prospects to 1 major leaguer with prior success isn't the same math. Especially the guys being thrown around as targets. They're called "front of the rotation" pieces on here like we're talking deGrom or Scherzer as targets. We're talking about guys who have been #2 and 3s and had up and down careers, or no sustained success, but fans are so enamored with their names that they're convinced that's the only way the Twins can succeed. 

The Twins have a massive hole at SS. Pretty darn big one in LF. And a whole bunch all over the pitching staff. This piece is suggesting that trading prospects for an "ace" isn't smart because there's so many other holes that the team wouldn't be competitive even with that "ace" (ace is in quotes because nobody the fans are suggesting the Twins target are aces. If the Reds and As were loaded with aces they would've been in the playoffs last year). I'm adding that these "aces" aren't the sure things and rotation savers some fans are suggesting they are. Bringing in arms with 1 or 2 years of control left who are at best #2 starters as defacto aces isn't the recipe for success some people are making it out to be. It's a comfort blanket for fans to feel like the team is doing something. I'm not interested in a comfort blanket for 2022 to appease fans but hurts their real chances for sustained success. Using SD's rotation is just evidence of my argument that these trades aren't the sure things fans are making them out to be.

I haven't see the argument that the prospects can flame out and this team will still be fine, but I skim. 

The math doesn't exactly work in a way where 12 of X is better than 1 of Y. I'm pessimistic about the FO signing a trade acquisition as well, but I've grown exhausted by the notion that their self imposed handicaps, which played an integral role in the disaster that was last season, are now vital parts of a plan to getting the team back on track. 

The angst over certainty seems to be hyper focused on one side here. 

[Major League Ready]

8 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

You're arguing semantics. Teams are paying for a track record of MLB success, even if it's a limited one. I don't have solid numbers off the top of my head, but I'd imagine that as far as volatility goes, prospects are very likely the higher risk commodity. 

Boiling it down to "nothing is a sure thing," and equating SD's rotation to the current state of MN's is a stretch to say the least. 

He is not arguing semantics at all.  You are both arguing for a given strategy.  Chpettit19 as provided numerous examples that support a given strategy.  You are insisting your strategy is better while providing no validation.  The best form of validation is pretty straight forward.  Look at playoff or 90 win teams with below average revenue for any season, preferably multiple seasons.  How have the various means of acquisition contributed to those teams.  I have posted these facts on multiple occasions.  Acquisition of established top of the rotation pitching through free agency or trading for prospects is almost nonexistent.  Trading established players for prospects has had a far greater impact.  Players that were drafted or acquired as prospects far outnumber these other two methods combined.

You have put a lot of effort into repeating this argument over and over.  It would be great if you put a little of that energy into a meaningful / unbiased assessment of the relative effectiveness of acquisition methods.  It's not hard to do with fangraphs.  Take the 90 win teams with below average revenue from any season.  List all of the players by WAR above whatever threshold you elect to use.  I used 1.5 WAR.  If you do this, there is absolutely no question of the value of building from within.

The reason is pretty simple.  1 WAR in free agency cost $8M+.  When you have half the revenue of top teams, by definition you must be more effective per dollar spent.  The notion that trades for established pitching is a good bet is absurd if you actually look at the history of these trades.  I listed numerous trades where established pitching was traded for prospects that had major roles in building playoff teams.  Chpettit19 listed very recent trades for pitching that did not produce much. 

Show us validation.  Show us your insistence there is no plan can be backed up by facts that validate your position.  That would be what is known as a valid argument.  

[adorduan]

well, one of the problems if you don't acquire any established pitchers is that you are basically wasting one of Buxtons prime years.

[chpettit19]

10 hours ago, USAFChief said:

This is simply not true. Not close to true.

 

The Rays rely on prospects and unproven players every year while throwing out one of the best pitching staffs in baseball every year. The Giants made a bunch of reclamation project signings that many fans on here would've bitched and moaned about for months and had the best record in baseball last year. The Braves refused to trade any of their young arms and built their rotation through having a ton of prospects and having a few turn out. The Padres traded for a whole bunch of "known commodities" and were league average and missed the playoffs. 

There's a difference between it being true and your comfort level with that plan. The truth is the Mariners and Padres have been "winning offseasons" for a decade by bringing in "known commodities" and one has the longest postseason draught in baseball and the other has underachieved at every turn. You may not like it, but I can go on and on and on listing "known commodities" that have failed and young, unknown players who have succeeded. During Jaime Garcia's career with St Louis (which ran until 2017 when he signed with the Braves for his age 30 season before the Twins traded for him) he had a 3.57 ERA in 147 starts. Known commodity! ERA with the Braves: 4.30. Twins: 4.05. Yankees: 4.82. Cubs: 4.70. Blue Jays: 5.93. Patrick Corbin was a "known commodity" before the Nationals signed him to a 6 year 140M deal. He's been well below league average after his 1 good season with them. I can go on and on. FA's and trades are not sure things. They make fans feel better, but they're just as much an educated guess as prospects. There's just more data to base your guess on.