PECOTA & Joe Ryan: A Love Story

[Nash Walker]

It’s the most beautiful time of the year! PECOTA projections are out, and they’re bullish on a particular Twins starting pitcher. 

It’s essential to mention right off the bat: your expectations for Joe Ryan should remain in the third or fourth starter range. He’s thrown a total of 26 ⅔ innings in the majors, and it’s unfair to expect the same production as the first four starts of his career.

Even then, there’s plenty of reason to be excited about the 25-year-old, invisiball-throwing vibe machine. Ryan looks ready to step right into the Twins’ rotation, and at this point, he’s likely to start on Opening Day in Chicago. 

Many are hesitant to put much stock into PECOTA projections from the esteemed crew at Baseball Prospectus. The system projects the seasons of over 1,600 players, so there are bound to be errors. The projections can be wacky, unpredictable, and, yes, extremely exciting. 

PECOTA projects Ryan to throw 143 innings with a 2.87 ERA and 153 strikeouts in 2022. They peg him for 2.5 WARP, tied for 20th and ahead of José Berríos, Frankie Montas, Freddy Peralta, and Lucas Giolito. 

DRA- (deserved run average) is a statistic that measures the rate a pitcher expects to give up runs. PECOTA projects Ryan for a better DRA- than Lance Lynn, Sandy Alcantara, and Shohei Ohtani. The system essentially projects Ryan to be a frontline starter in 2022. 

Pointing out the gaudy projections for Ryan isn’t an attempt to put lipstick on the pig that is the Twins rotation. On the contrary, this is more reason to win in 2022 with actual, impact moves for starting pitching. 

If the Twins still had Berríos, the outlook would be incredibly different. They don’t, though, and they need to acquire someone on his level to compete in an improving division. Even if Ryan somehow matches these excellent numbers, the rest of the rotation isn’t strong enough to support them.

PECOTA also likes Bailey Ober as a solid mid-rotation starter, projecting him for a 3.57 ERA, 3.81 FIP, and a better-than-average DRA- in 124 innings. The Twins have a base to work from, even if it’s not entirely sturdy. Will they add enough to make it matter?

What do you think of Ryan’s PECOTA projections? Comment below!

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[mikelink45]

Projections are always fun because they cause conversations like this.  Do they project any bad seasons?  Are they optimists or pessimists?  Thanks for sharing this.  Without spring training it is still good to have something to hope and wish about.

[RJA]

Boy, I hope the projections are correct.  I do believe, however, that the body of work is so small at the MLB level that making any kind of projection is very difficult.  It is one thing to project Sano, Polanco, or Buxton where we have a significant history in the bigs, and quite another to do so with two inexperienced pitchers.  But, any ray of sunshine at this point is a blessing, and the young man looks like the real deal.

[Doctor Gast]

Last year they punted on 2nd down, when we had a shot at a touchdown by signing Happ and Shoemaker. 2017 they punted by trading away some assets and the team still made it to the playoffs. We still have a competitive core even w/o Berrios and Cruz.

I don't really trust PECOTA's projections on little experienced Ryan or Ober yet they're not that bad where if we pick up a couple of of attainable SPs like Montas or Rodon that we could have a pretty respectable rotation.

So I implore this FO not to punt again, just because you think that you're good at it.

[roger]

My question. Is simple, has anyone ever graded PECOTA on their accuracy?  How does it differ for young unproven guys vs. veterans, if at all?

[jmlease1]

PECOTA is an interesting exercise. You have to keep in mind that it's difficult for any projection system to spot a breakout season or that tipping point one where a player gets old and the skills have the big decline all at once. They're not going to be able to control for injuries very well. They're going to tend towards regression to the mean. They're also not really trying to tell you what will happen with a player, but what they think will be the most likely outcome, which is not really the same thing. When you keep that in mind there's value in looking at what they're forecasting.

as a twins fan, I love this projection for Ryan. If I had to guess, I'd say he's likely to pitch more innings, get less Ks, and have a higher ERA. But this isn't an unreasonable projection, and it's why the Twins traded for him. It's why someone like Gleeman ranks him so high on the prospect lists. I'm really looking forward to seeing him pitch the full year; he's fun to watch and it'll be interesting to see where his HR/9 ends up because how many HRs he surrenders and in what situations those balls fly out of the park. If it's a bunch of solo shots and he keeps the rate at 1.5 HR/9 or less...then he's going to have a ton of success.

[LastOnePicked]

Fun projections, but every year baseball reminds me of what a weird, fickle game it can be.  Another mph on that line drive, or another millimeter in the wrong spot, and instead we'd be talking about Joe Ryan's rehab year for the broken wrist he suffered towards the end of last year. Accurate predictions for performance are tough to make.

I do think those projections are a little off, though. Keith Law is probably right - the league will figure out that "invisiball" (which is just a 90mph fastball a little higher in the zone) pretty quickly. I'm just hoping that Ryan has the fortitude and the competitive streak to keep building up his pitch arsenal and adjust as well.

[ashbury]

I didn't know that algorithmic projections were capable of Hawt Taeks.  This sure sounds like one, although pleasant.

[dxpavelka]

On 2/6/2022 at 1:54 PM, Prince William said:

 I am well aware of the era and games played by the members I listed. I expected the fan of the Twins to know that also. Sorry I tried to have a little fun with the the exchange that people seemed to need a little lightning up on. I see it is serious only here unless it is a an unfunny gif

 

On 2/9/2022 at 7:43 AM, Major League Ready said:

A lot of them have kids by the time they reach free agency.  How would your wife feel about moving the kids during the school year every year.  Do you suppose they would prefer to buy and live in a single home for the term of their contract or move every year during the term of their contract.  Of course, they could buy two homes but they still have to move a fair amount of stuff and uproot their kids.

 

On 2/10/2022 at 8:28 AM, Major League Ready said:

Granted, it's done.  Just saying ... would you prefer to go home to your family after home games.  Would you prefer to see your kids.  Do you think their wives prefer to live in separate homes.  The decision is a product of several factors.  This is one that is not favorable to most FAs. 

 

On 2/12/2022 at 11:15 AM, jimbo92107 said:

I like to read about another hot Twins SS prospect before I do my morning bathroom. By the time I get out, I'm so refreshed! 

It's a little like Sally holding the football for Charlie Brown. Now Imagine Sally holding 3 footballs just for the SS position (Lewis, Martin, Miller). I'm not even looking for a Tatis, just an everyday shortstop. 

So many footballs, so little time. Sally's holding what, 6 to 9 footballs for pitchers? That's why I'd just as soon watch them call 'em all up. Let the whiffing begin. At least we can chuckle at the chaos. 

 

On 2/20/2022 at 10:16 AM, DJL44 said:

If it's a mistake it's a small one. I don't know if anyone thought Sano would turn into the worst first baseman in the league. He had been the worst RF in baseball and one of the worst at 3B so people should have considered that he wouldn't look good at 1B either.

 

On 2/23/2022 at 1:41 PM, Cap'n Piranha said:

Rooker for his career has a 96 wRC+ and -0.1 WAR.  He strikes out 32.9% of the time while walking 7% of the time, and makes under 37% hard contact with a 30.9% CSW rate and a 32.9% chase rate.  He is also already 27.

Larnach for his career has a 89 wRC+ and 0.2 WAR.  He strikes out 34.6% of the time, but walks 10.3% of the time, and makes under 34% hard contact with a 34.4% CSW rate and a 27.8% chase rate.  He turns 25 in 3 days.

Larnach's sprint speed of 26.5 ft/sec was faster than Rooker in 2020, but slower than Rooker in 2021.  If the Twins were trying to win a WS in 2022, I'd say maybe keep Rooker, but as that is not the case, Larnach is definitely a better option than Rooker moving forward.

 

8 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Projections are always fun because they cause conversations like this.  Do they project any bad seasons?  Are they optimists or pessimists?  Thanks for sharing this.  Without spring training it is still good to have something to hope and wish about.

I'm sure they project bad seasons.  I'm also certain nobody writes about them.

[gman]

I would be happy if among Ryan, Ober and a couple of not yet named minor leaguers we have a 4-some of a future rotation with an ERA of 4.50 for this year.

[jimbo92107]

One thing interesting about Ryan's heater is that he could make it arrive a few inches lower by simply switching to a two-seam grip. Why would he do that? If a hitter starts squaring up his four-seam heater, which rides a few inches higher in the zone than it looks like it should. 

Cat-and-mouse. For now, Ryan's fastball is fooling most hitters. Eventually, yes, they'll adjust. I just hope Ryan is ready with a quick fix, like the 2-seamer. Keep 'em guessing. Maybe then work on a cutter, so he's got the ball up, down, left and right. Could be a lot of fun, if the catcher remembers which pitches to call...

[tony&rodney]

Just like many, I read these projections and watched Ober and Ryan carefully last year. I have hope. I'm also coming around to the idea of just making a play for either Bassitt or Manaea and signing Rodon as a gamble. Rodon only cost money and the former should be available for Larnach or Arraez. Maybe add Vallimont and Rooker. Do the Twins spend near $120 million for the coming season? That could be a wrench. But, yes, I'm ready to roll with the two added pitchers to complement Winder, Ober, and Ryan. Ryan will be fun to watch. Now, about the CBA.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

"Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain."  One can say that about PECOTA predictions, however It is the hope of the entire Twins nation that this prediction is close to being accurate. 

[Game7-91]

Twins need to hire Frankie Sweet Music to teach Ryan that circle change. Would work just as well from the rt side and sure give a little more pop to that upzone 90. ?

[Karbo]

I wonder what Pecota rates Bundy out too?

[Twins33]

PECOTA loves Ryan more than I do, crazy. I think he’s a three right now with the chance to be better. I am a big fan.