Twins Daily 2022 Top Prospects: #3 Jose Miranda

[theBOMisthebomb]

His swing reminds me of Albert Pujols. Now, if the results could also remind us of Pujols, then we have something. 

[DocBauer]

11 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Why do the Twins need to move JD to sign Story? They're basically $40M under the payrolls they've had the last few years. There's plenty of room to sign Story and keep JD to start the year. There's no pitchers available worthy of taking up a large chunk of that $40M so Story makes the most sense as SS is just as big of a need as pitching. Don't let the Pohlads/FO off the hook by saying JD's contract is stopping them from doing anything. They have payroll space.

But onto Miranda...as others have said, I'm not worried about finding him playing time this year. "Logjams" always seem to work themselves out due to injuries or slumping performance. They'll have plenty of opportunity to get him ABs in Minneapolis this year. I'm not an advocate of moving proven MLB talent to clear space for any prospect, ever. I'm a huge prospect nerd and love the hope they represent, but they're still just prospects. Injuries and poor performance open plenty of doors and the prospects can push out veterans when their chance arrives. I don't want the Twins using prospects as Plan A unless they absolutely have to. They're always Plan B because Plan B is always needed. If you have Miranda as Plan A and he turns back into the pumpkin he was until last year your Plan B is a career minor leaguer and you're in a real bad spot. Let him take a job throughout the year even if that means having to start in St Paul and wait for openings througout the year.

And can we please stop with this "just put him in LF" idea? He played a few games out there and they immediately moved him back to the IF. Corner OF defense matters. Everyone is trying to lift and separate at the plate so why are we so willing to put slow footed, no defense guys in the places where players are trying to hit the ball? He's an infielder, leave him there. Versatility is good, but everyone who's bad at their primary defensive spot isn't versatile just because we move them around to be bad at other spots. Maybe if we just let some guys, like Miranda, stick at 1 spot they could improve. You want versatile guys on your team, but they don't all have to be moved around all the time. Put the kid at 3B in St Paul and tell him he's the heir apparent to JD. Let him go to work there and give him every chance to establish himself as the future Twins 3B. Moving Gordon around makes sense. It's his ticket to a big league roster. Moving Kirilloff and Miranda around doesn't make sense. They're (hopefully) your corner IF for the next 6-12 years. Put them in their places and let them work on perfecting them.

Hit a bad button and lost my response. GRR! Have to regroup. 

LOVE the post!!

Agree JD is no reason to not sign Story. But I will contend that I'm not sure signing Story is the right move. JD's contact will be gone in 2+ years regardless if traded or not. And currently, there are no major financial obligations other than Buxton which are fair, manageable, and incentive based. IF the Twins signed Story I would be happy, hopeful, and I would be crossing my fingers. First, he's a quality SS. Second, he provides power and some speed and SB opportunities,  much less an extra base opportunity. But unless I'm mistaken, his career OPS away from Coors Field drops significantly about a 100 points to somewhere around. 720-740. With good defense and power and decent speed he's absolutely worth something. But $20-23M for 4-6yrs? I'd have to pass on that! 

I LOVE a comment Tom made on a recent podcast that having Story "in the way" of Lewis proving his worth is a good problem to have! But I'm really struggling with Story being worth the $ value being placed on him. And I think that is part of the reason he wasn't part of the FA frenzy that happened before the lockout. 

I'm 100% behind you in regard to letting prospects "force" their way on to a roster. There are those few talents, like a Mauer, where there is really no decision to be made. But they are few and between. Miranda had one of the best milb seasons EVER in the system. And one thing a lot of media forgets, he wasn't some flier mid or late round surprise. He was a young early round selection the Twins have just been waiting to put it together. He did that in 2021. But when you look at a roster crunch to begin 2022, what do you do if everyone is healthy? 

Forget service time because it's not always about that. IF the roster is healthy, Miranda is best served playing daily at St Paul and coming up as probably the 1st guy. Hell, even Arraez has more experience in LF than he does. Don't make another "Sano to RF just because" experiment. IF he doesn't just rake and "fit in" to a different position, LF, then for his sake and his future, let him play daily until opportunity arises. And it will.

Of course, injury or trade will adjust the roster. 

AK is the future at 1B. It may not be the beginning of 2022 depending on trades. But it's his eventual home. But don't mess with Miranda. I agree with that. Play a few spots that feel comfortable and just wait for openings. And they will come/happen. And it could happen from day 1 or a month in. But don't mess with what you have.

Defensively? Gaetti, Koskie, Plouffe, 30yrs of quality 3B who weren't supposed to be good there but turned out to be good to outstanding. Focus on Miranda being a 3B and he will be just fine at 3B. But it's OK if everyone is healthy and ready to go whenever this lockout nightmare ends. Just let him get his stuff together and be ready. 

 

[jimbo92107]

"He’s looked best at third base. Even there, he will be, at best, a slightly below-average defender. "

I must challenge this pre-career assessment. We have all seen guys that were butchers at a position work their butts off at defense, later to become top shelf at their positions (Koske, Morneau, and frankly Polanco). All of them got to the majors via that wooden stick they waved so well. Now we have another one that needs work. 

Besides, the Minnesota Twins are famed for coaching up players on their defense. This franchise has always put a premium on making plays in the field. Teach him what that glove is for, Twinkie coaches!

[Mike Sixel]

22 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Hit a bad button and lost my response. GRR! Have to regroup. 

LOVE the post!!

Agree JD is no reason to not sign Story. But I will contend that I'm not sure signing Story is the right move. JD's contact will be gone in 2+ years regardless if traded or not. And currently, there are no major financial obligations other than Buxton which are fair, manageable, and incentive based. IF the Twins signed Story I would be happy, hopeful, and I would be crossing my fingers. First, he's a quality SS. Second, he provides power and some speed and SB opportunities,  much less an extra base opportunity. But unless I'm mistaken, his career OPS away from Coors Field drops significantly about a 100 points to somewhere around. 720-740. With good defense and power and decent speed he's absolutely worth something. But $20-23M for 4-6yrs? I'd have to pass on that! 

I LOVE a comment Tom made on a recent podcast that having Story "in the way" of Lewis proving his worth is a good problem to have! But I'm really struggling with Story being worth the $ value being placed on him. And I think that is part of the reason he wasn't part of the FA frenzy that happened before the lockout. 

I'm 100% behind you in regard to letting prospects "force" their way on to a roster. There are those few talents, like a Mauer, where there is really no decision to be made. But they are few and between. Miranda had one of the best milb seasons EVER in the system. And one thing a lot of media forgets, he wasn't some flier mid or late round surprise. He was a young early round selection the Twins have just been waiting to put it together. He did that in 2021. But when you look at a roster crunch to begin 2022, what do you do if everyone is healthy? 

Forget service time because it's not always about that. IF the roster is healthy, Miranda is best served playing daily at St Paul and coming up as probably the 1st guy. Hell, even Arraez has more experience in LF than he does. Don't make another "Sano to RF just because" experiment. IF he doesn't just rake and "fit in" to a different position, LF, then for his sake and his future, let him play daily until opportunity arises. And it will.

Of course, injury or trade will adjust the roster. 

AK is the future at 1B. It may not be the beginning of 2022 depending on trades. But it's his eventual home. But don't mess with Miranda. I agree with that. Play a few spots that feel comfortable and just wait for openings. And they will come/happen. And it could happen from day 1 or a month in. But don't mess with what you have.

Defensively? Gaetti, Koskie, Plouffe, 30yrs of quality 3B who weren't supposed to be good there but turned out to be good to outstanding. Focus on Miranda being a 3B and he will be just fine at 3B. But it's OK if everyone is healthy and ready to go whenever this lockout nightmare ends. Just let him get his stuff together and be ready. 

 

So you'd rather have a worse shortstop, and have the pohlads pocket the money? Because they aren't spending it on pitching. They've prevent that. What other position is so barren they need to spend?

[TwinsDr2021]

18 hours ago, Unwinder said:

I recall Miranda being described as an average defender at 3rd base all last season, and I've only seen this narrative that he's a defensive liability emerge over the offseason. Where did this come from? Is this some statistical trend that only became clear after the season was over? Are we letting Keith Law color our perception of Miranda's defense? Do we have enough data to even clearly evaluate him, especially when he's been playing all over the field? I'm prepared to accept that his defense is a problem, but I'd want to know why.

IMO it comes from, fans love the hope of a prospect, they dream of the prospect being a yearly all star stepping in taking over the position with very little struggle. Then when that prospect gets real close to be depended on, we fans start pointing out things that have probably been there the whole time, but we have to temper our expectations to as not to be let down by the player, because we are already dreaming on the next prospect. 

Look at the wild up and downs on Lewis for example. Two years ago he was the Twins SS of the future, he started getting close last year and we fans were talking about him moving to the OF, maybe staying at SS. Now that it is likely he will be in the minors all year, we fans are talking about how he might be the SS of the future again, and my guess is if he bat is decent, going into next year we fans will be saying maybe LF is his position until Buxton contract is up, traded or injured.

[TwinsDr2021]

9 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

So you'd rather have a worse shortstop, and have the pohlads pocket the money? Because they aren't spending it on pitching. They've prevent that. What other position is so barren they need to spend?

So do you think the Pohlads send people to this site to see how the wind is blowing, and those people report back, hey we might have finally convinced the fans to save you money, and the Pohlads laugh like the Duke brothers? (trading places reference)

Currently now they are sitting 44 million under last years payroll with options(based on numbers from Baseball Reference), and there is talk to trade Sano (10 million) to save money, Donaldson for sure (50 million over 20 years with buyout), and some have suggested Kepler (about 16 over 2 years with a buyout).

And others are worried about spending money on a 29 year old SS, who was a top 12 MVP 3 of the last 4 years, and the year he wasn't only had a 4.2 WAR, because he makes too much or might possibly be blocking a guy that hasn't played in two years and never has hit as good as Story even when Story hasn't been great. If people aren't willing to spend money on a 29 year old offensive player, who are you ever going to be OK with signing?

 

[Squirrel]

@TwinsDr2021 and @Mike Sixel, this is a discussion about Miranda, not a general discussion about the team’s spending. Relate it directly to Miranda and how you hope he fits into the team’s plans or start your own thread about spending.

[DJL44]

Fangraphs called Miranda a 2B and compared him to Ty France. The defensive demands at 3B are higher now than they were 10 years ago due to increased defensive shifting. It is almost a "second shortstop" position now

2022 Top 100 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball.

 

[chpettit19]

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Hit a bad button and lost my response. GRR! Have to regroup. 

LOVE the post!!

Agree JD is no reason to not sign Story. But I will contend that I'm not sure signing Story is the right move. JD's contact will be gone in 2+ years regardless if traded or not. And currently, there are no major financial obligations other than Buxton which are fair, manageable, and incentive based. IF the Twins signed Story I would be happy, hopeful, and I would be crossing my fingers. First, he's a quality SS. Second, he provides power and some speed and SB opportunities,  much less an extra base opportunity. But unless I'm mistaken, his career OPS away from Coors Field drops significantly about a 100 points to somewhere around. 720-740. With good defense and power and decent speed he's absolutely worth something. But $20-23M for 4-6yrs? I'd have to pass on that! 

I LOVE a comment Tom made on a recent podcast that having Story "in the way" of Lewis proving his worth is a good problem to have! But I'm really struggling with Story being worth the $ value being placed on him. And I think that is part of the reason he wasn't part of the FA frenzy that happened before the lockout. 

I'm 100% behind you in regard to letting prospects "force" their way on to a roster. There are those few talents, like a Mauer, where there is really no decision to be made. But they are few and between. Miranda had one of the best milb seasons EVER in the system. And one thing a lot of media forgets, he wasn't some flier mid or late round surprise. He was a young early round selection the Twins have just been waiting to put it together. He did that in 2021. But when you look at a roster crunch to begin 2022, what do you do if everyone is healthy? 

Forget service time because it's not always about that. IF the roster is healthy, Miranda is best served playing daily at St Paul and coming up as probably the 1st guy. Hell, even Arraez has more experience in LF than he does. Don't make another "Sano to RF just because" experiment. IF he doesn't just rake and "fit in" to a different position, LF, then for his sake and his future, let him play daily until opportunity arises. And it will.

Of course, injury or trade will adjust the roster. 

AK is the future at 1B. It may not be the beginning of 2022 depending on trades. But it's his eventual home. But don't mess with Miranda. I agree with that. Play a few spots that feel comfortable and just wait for openings. And they will come/happen. And it could happen from day 1 or a month in. But don't mess with what you have.

Defensively? Gaetti, Koskie, Plouffe, 30yrs of quality 3B who weren't supposed to be good there but turned out to be good to outstanding. Focus on Miranda being a 3B and he will be just fine at 3B. But it's OK if everyone is healthy and ready to go whenever this lockout nightmare ends. Just let him get his stuff together and be ready. 

 

This is a thread about Miranda so don't want to derail it with Story talk, but road numbers for Colorado players can be thrown out with the home numbers. Hitting in Colorado is easier, but hitting on the road is harder. The pitches they see move far more on the road so there's about a 3 game adjustment period. Signing guys from Colorado is more about scouting and being able to just say "this guy can put the bat on the ball frequently and with authority." Arenado had bad road numbers, too, but St Louis is more than happy with him.

But I'm with you on all the Miranda stuff. He'll find his place with the Twins and if that's opening day great! If it's middle of April awesome! Mashes in AAA for a month and a half then mashes in MLB cool! It always works itself out. Better to start from a place of him being your extra security blanket than having someone like Tim Beckham be your only security blanket. I'm excited for the season to start and to see what he has. Hopefully those folks meeting in FL this week get stuff figured out and we can get this show on the road!

[Squirrel]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Fangraphs called Miranda a 2B and compared him to Ty France. The defensive demands at 3B are higher now than they were 10 years ago due to increased defensive shifting. It is almost a "second shortstop" position now

2022 Top 100 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball.

 

Miranda himself said he prefers playing 2nd

[bean5302]

Nobody compared Miranda to Donaldson. Donaldson had an extremely unlucky year last year, which is totally out of character for his history. Donaldson is one of the best hitters in MLB and he was playing on a hurt calf. Donaldson could easily rebound and put up a  4-5 WAR season this year. 

Miranda putting together an average starting third baseman season at 2.5 bWAR wouldn't be comparing him to Donaldson, but the number of every day starters at the top end of any team's farm system is low. I think Twins fans are a little high on Miranda right now, but only time will tell whether the excitement is warranted.

The Twins' system is pretty deep with potential so Miranda could be anywhere in the top 8ish.

[2wins87]

On 2/23/2022 at 11:52 AM, blindeke said:

I got to see him in St. Paul and was impressed with this eye at the plate. He didn't seem like a free swinger, but I guess he has a low walk rate? Anyone have more info on how that. might play out in the Majors? 

Here's a list of recent players with somewhat similar batting profiles in the upper minors. 

Personally I love the power/contact combo (12.4% K/.228 ISO).  It's pretty rare, probably the next closest recent Twins prospect was Max Kepler (12.6% K/.197 ISO), though his overall bat profile was fairly different (better plate discipline but less bat control/contact, a bit less power).  Miranda made big improvements in plate discipline, and a significant part of his low walk rate comes from the fact that he just makes contact so much when he does swing, but I would still expect plate discipline to be his main weakness in the MLB.

From the list I linked above I think it's perfectly reasonable to look at guys like McNeil, Hosmer, and Moustakas as comps for major league performance, though they are all left handed batters.  I'm not sure who a good right-handed comp is.  Maybe like Ryan Braun in his late 20s/early 30s?  At any rate, it's hard to find players with the kind of power Miranda displayed combined with his low strikeout rates in the upper minors and at his age that were total flops in the majors.  I think the floor isn't much below average major leaguer at this point, and the occasional all-star level is certainly possible.

[bean5302]

MiLB stats prove a player is ready for a promotion. It doesn't prove they'll perform in MLB. I use Chris Parmelee as an example all the time. 

a24 AAA = .338/.457/.645 1.102 OPS, 18% BB, 18% K. .307 ISO

I think Miranda will be good, but I'm not willing to make his comp a former MVP based on a single year of performance in the minors after he was left exposed to the rule 5. If that's what we were doing, Jermaine Palacios should be the Twins' #5 prospect.

[DocBauer]

On 2/23/2022 at 10:13 PM, Mike Sixel said:

So you'd rather have a worse shortstop, and have the pohlads pocket the money? Because they aren't spending it on pitching. They've prevent that. What other position is so barren they need to spend?

Hey Mike, sorry I didn't respond earlier, but I got busy and the thread was getting derailed from Miranda. But I felt bad not responding to you.

It's not that I don't think Story is a bad ballplayer or that I don't want him. And it's not that I want ownership to pocket unspent money. In fact, I WANT them around $150M and I think they can afford that. In fact, as I've stated before, I'd be excited and optimistic if they DID sign Story. My concern is the financial cost of $20-23M for 4-6yrs for which version of Story we'd be signing. It's been argued, against my trepidation, that his significantly lower OPS on the road vs at home in Coors Field...I believe it's a good 100 points or so...is dismissable as most players have a lower OPS away from home, and sometimes a Rockies player might even make adjustments on a road trip over time away. Not an unfair point. HOWEVER, NOT playing half his games in Coors Field as his home park makes his "road" career OPS in the lower .700's that much more important to me, IMO. Now we're talking Target Field as his 81 HOME games, along with another 81 road games, ALL away from Coors Field and the influence on his career numbers.

I'm sorry, but committing $20-23M for 4-6yrs for a good SS with power and speed ability, but an OPS that seems to be defined by his previous park and would appear to have low .700-ish threshold sounds like a potential "over buy" to me. 

Tom made a great comment in one of his podcasts a couple weeks ago that it's a GOOD THING if Lewis proves himself and becomes everything we want and hope and believe in, AND we have Story. I couldn't agree more! But I am cautious, maybe overly cautious, for allocating those funds on that sizeable commitment when a solid stop-gap might be in play and maintain that financial flexibility for future additions and extensions 2023 and beyond. 

So I am NOT anti-Story at all! But again, I have trepidation.