Should the Twins Draft Kumar Rocker?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

College baseball started nationwide over the weekend and one name notably absent during the showdown in Nashville between Vanderbilt and Oklahoma State was former Commodore pitcher Kumar Rocker. Rocker, as you may recall, was drafted by the Mets last year but did not sign before the signing deadline. 

When Kumar Rocker and the Mets failed to reach an agreement last summer, it left few options for Rocker's baseball future: return to Vanderbilt for his senior season or play professionally, albeit in a league not affiliated with Major League Baseball. It became apparent quickly, if not immediately, that Rocker, who is represented by super-agent Scott Boras, would not be returning to play college baseball.

So here we are in February, draft season upon us, with the most well-known draft-eligible pitcher appearing destined for independent baseball, eventually. The journey from now until the draft is going to be clouded in mystery.

Let's look back at the path Kumar Rocker took to get here.

Kumar, son of former NFL player Tracy Rocker, was drafted out of a Georgia high school by the Rockies in the 28th round of the 2018 draft but elected to enroll at Vanderbilt where he quickly burst onto the scene. The success he had as a freshman was unprecedented: striking out 114 batters in 99 2/3 innings, Rocker won 12 games and had an ERA of 3.25, but his persona grew as a big-game pitcher as he led the Commodores to a national championship.

Along the way, Rocker was the eighth pitcher to throw a no-hitter in the NCAA tournament, but the first to ever do it in a Super Regional Game. He set a College World Series record, fanning 11 against Michigan on his way to a 2-0, 1.46 ERA in the CWS, taking home Most Outstanding Player honors. 

All the momentum he took into his sophomore year, which he also started with a bang came to a screeching halt when COVID shut it down in early March of 2020.

Rocker, though, returned to dominance in the spring of 2021, posting a 14-4 record with an ERA of 2.73. He struck out 179 batters in 122 innings. But four of his starts, including his last one in the College World Series, are best described as clunkers and some of the polish that made Rocker such a shiny prospect had started to wear off. Teammate Jack Leiter flew past Rocker on draft boards and prospect lists and Rocker, who was widely mocked as the first overall picks for much of the spring, started to tumble amidst concerns that, physically, something wasn't right.

The Mets, picking 10th, had agreed to pay Rocker well over-slot and executed their whole draft around this idea. The $6 million agreement was public knowledge before the paint was even dry on the rest of the draft.  Rocker probably wouldn't have dropped to the Mets if this agreement wasn't in place before the draft started.

And that's where things took a weird turn. Rocker, who didn't participate in the pre-draft sharing of medical information, was deemed to have some shoulder/elbow irregularities in a post-draft physical done by the Mets. Boras, on the other hand, shared that imagining showed no discernable difference from an MRI Rocker had done years prior.

The Mets held firm and didn't even offer Rocker a contract (and they didn't have to because of the lack of shared medical information).

Kumar Rocker will be draft-eligible again in 2022. Where, when and how much he throws prior to the draft will remain a mystery. But when the draft starts, there's little doubt that Rocker won't be among the best available arms. The question, though, is whether or not there are enough answers for the Twins to feel comfortable drafting him.

Don't forget to check out the other content here at TwinsDaily.

Our draft series kicked off last week and we'll have more throughout the weeks leading up to the draft.

February 15 update

And there's the prospect rankings series as well.
Honorable Mentions
Prospects 16-20
Prospects 11-15
#10: Josh Winder, RHP
#9: Chase Petty, RHP
#8: Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
#7: Jhoan Duran, RHP
#6: Matt Canterino, RHP
#5: Joe Ryan, RHP
#4: Jordan Balazovic, RHP
#3: Coming tomorrow

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[Heistyman]

I'd be excited if the Twins drafted Rocker. Being a Boras client, he'd be hard to hold on to once he reaches Free Agency.  BUt the ride till that happens would be fun!

[LastOnePicked]

Before the next draft, the Twins should take Moneyball to the next level by hiring a team of psychics to determine which pitching prospects will remain injury-free. Then I'd feel a little better about taking a chance with Rocker that the Mets were unwilling to take.

[Dman]

I don't know what to think about Rocker. There are lot's of different opinions out there.  I guess ultimately it does worry me that the Mets did not sign him even though they built their draft around him.  It seems like when pitchers medicals cause red flags it hasn't worked out too well for the teams that grab them. 

I think at pick number 8  I would pass on Rocker but I am a pretty risk averse person.  If the medicals are out there now then I guess get your doctors to take a look and try to get a feel for what the risk is and go from there.  If they agree with the Mets assessment I wouldn't use my first rounder on him.

[Trov]

He will be a huge risk if his medicals do not get shared. I guess one question the Twins would need to answer is what does the talent in this draft look like?  If the talent is deep and you think 8th still has value, then you find the best out there.  But, if you think next year is deeper draft where 9th is a good value, then maybe you take a flier on Rocker, if you do not like the medicals then you do like Mets did and not sign him, getting the pick at the next draft, but if you think he has value and the medicals are overblown then you may have hit a possible number 1 pick.  Also, as a senior age guy, you can fast track him if healthy. 

All pitcher come with risk no matter history of injury or not.  I am not surprised Rocker did not return to college, I would not either as he has little to prove other than health, but he can do that in a pro league somewhere now.  If nothing else sign a year over in Japan or Korea to show health.  Not sure how posting works if a U.S. born player signs as a FA over there though, so maybe that is bad idea. 

[mikelink45]

As soon as I see Boras I want to hide - he is the boogyman of agents and dealing with him leaves me cold.  That said, what really stops me is the physical unknown.

[Rosterman]

The question is would he be a fixable gamble for the price. The Twins, in some ways, are pitching prospect rich.

 

Again, you take the best affordable and signable prospect available to you and go from there.

[tony&rodney]

Absolutely, .... if he is the best player available.

We should assume Rocker will allow a shared physical unless he wants to bet on the long game of making his biggest paycheck down the road a half dozen years. Perhaps Rocker wants to stick to his guns and is willing to be a lower pick and is confident enough to make his money later.

[TopGunn#22]

I guess I'm of the mind that if the Twins think he's the best, most talented player on the board at their spot, I take him.  And I SIGN him.  Then, because Boras is his agent I'd have a different plan.  I put him on the major league roster very quickly.  And then I ride him... HARD.  I pitch him.  And I pitch him.  And I PITCH him.  The Twins will never have him once he enters his FA years.  Boras will make sure of that.  So with that in mind, I get my money's worth out of him, like an NFL team rides a young running back.  

[DocBauer]

I'm of the general opinion to be risk adverse on a high draft selection and draft the very best player available regardless of position. And if that player is at a position of depth in my system already, so what. Get the most talent you can and sort it out later. Where I'm OK taking chances are later in the 1st, like Petty this year. 

That being said, sometimes a player falls in your lap and the risk/reward has to be considered. But a potential injury, or one waiting to happen,  holds true for every drafted arm, yes? Let's say Boras is being genuine here and the recent medicals match previous ones. Your team's staff will have to make the call that he's sound and they don't see an abnormal risk. Maybe the Mets were spooked by something the Twins, and other teams, wouldn't see or be overly concerned with. But it does seem a bit odd that the Mets, with all their money, would back off.

But if he pitches in independent ball and looks great and is as healthy as can be, would he even be available for the Twins at 8? Would someone pounce on him? There's a lot to like in Rocker for sure. Now, if he doesn't look great, or refuses to be thoroughly examined, it's a hard pass without even blinking. Let someone else take a gamble late in the 1st and take the risk. 

Not sure I see the stars lining up here. He pitches great and the medicals check out, he might be gone by 8. He DOESN'T pitch, for whatever reason, then I'm skeptical even if the medicals do look OK. He's rusty and I have the feeling something is being kept from me.  Maybe he's just a victim of bad circumstance and is a real steal for someone and the Mets just messed up. But right now, too many unknowns. 

Now, he looks great in independent ball and my medical staff sees no great risk and the other 7 teams picking ahead of me pass for some reason, he's in my "plan A" consideration. In February, with milb and independent ball just getting ready to crank up, he's off my board in the 1st round.

[Otwins]

Saw him pitch in the College World series both years.  He was not the same guy last year. I would have to see him pitch well this year before I would consider him.

[Nine of twelve]

Pass. I don't trust a player (and/or agent) who won't fully disclose medical examinations, especially when the player would be chosen early in the draft. Yes, I know, HIPAA, but as a GM I would go in a different direction if I thought he could be knowingly hiding a medical problem.

[ziggy]

I wouldn't draft him in the first round.  Flunked his Mets physical, won't disclose medicals, didn't pitch for his college team as a senior even though he was eligible, Boras for an agent. This is a recipe for an ulcer. And a drafted player who 'suddenly' has arm trouble after signing the $6M bonus. Second round flyer at the soonest draft position.

[mikelink45]

Mark Appel was a similar high risk pitcher who did not sign with his first team and now has six mediocre at best seasons in MiLB.  Pitchers are volatile, but when there is a red flag it worries me.  What does he want to do? 

[Linus]

You can’t take him that high without proof he is physically sound. And as Doc says if he provides medical showing no issues he won’t be there at 9. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

Yes, absolutely draft him is he falls to 8.  This is a top of the rotation talent that the Twins might only be getting a chance at because of some weird circumstances.  Kohl Stewart, Nick Gordon, Tyler Jay were drafted higher than 8, none of them had the #1 overall pick upside of Rocker.  And look at those guys now.

On the flip side, Trea Turner was a #1 overall upside guy who tumbled, and the Twins passed.

Borasfear is misplaced and over the top.  If he leaves in free agency as soon as he can (which will be in 8-9 years at the earliest) that means that we struck gold with this draft pick.

[Prince William]

To answer the question of draft him, why yes. First round, no way. He has no leverage for the bonus despite Boras. If he wants to sign he can. It will not be a multi million dollar contract. If he wants to pitch indy ball or overseas to prove his value that is his option and risk.

[Major League Ready]

We have blown enough 1st round picks.  He would have to demonstrate he is not at risk.  Plus, the fact that he has Boras as an agent is just one more reason to avoid him.  We would have never signed Buxton or Polanco if Boras was their agent.

[Karbo]

Long time til draft. Wait and see who all jumps this year and then make a decision. LOTS of red flags, so there may very well be better or at least as promising players coming to light available at #8.

[Otaknam]

If Rocker is the best player available, is dominant in indy leagues, and his medicals are shared and are ok take him. But there are red flags:  Medical reports obviously. Also how many prospects have been unsigned, chose the independent league and had a solid MLB career? And finally the Boras connection gives me pause, though they must have players on the roster represented by Boras. 

[Connor Gould]

This is like when Brady Aikan went #1 overall out of high school and had an agreed amount with Houston before they didn't like an arm MRI so they dropped the offer to the minimum they had to offer in order to still get the #2 overall pick the next year as compensation. He turns it down, goes to community college, tears his UCL in his first start, goes in the teens of the 1st to Cleveland, and busts. However, Rocker seems further along in development so it wouldn't be as catastrophic if he needed Tommy John, like how Giolito got Tommy John and still went 1st round and worked out.

[chpettit19]

Boras doesn't scare me at all for draft picks. Their leverage isn't based on their agents so much as their other options. Kumar is pretty well out of other options if he plans on getting to the majors anytime soon so he can't demand an above slot bonus. Kumar is 22 already. Unless people think he's making it to the majors this year he won't debut until he's 23. Add his 6 years of team control (doesn't look like that's changing at all in the new CBA) and he's in a Twins uni until he's 29 at least. If he makes it to the bigs in his second professional season and is so good that Boras can do his mega-contract thing then the Twins got a ton out of him and even though it'd suck likely seeing another homegrown stud leave I'd be happy with what they'd gotten.

The medicals are the only concern. If you can't get enough data to convince yourself the Mets were wrong in their decision then that's a hard spot to be in. Is there a guy you think you can get in the early second that you want to go over slot for and think you can get 2 big time talents by taking a risk on Rocker under slot? That's something I'd consider. Thinking Rocker is going to need TJ surgery wouldn't scare me away. I assume every drafted pitcher is going to need it at some point. Just means the Twins get him til he's 30 now. But if it's a shoulder thing I'd be much more careful in drafting him. I think his season in independent ball will answer a lot of questions.

Generally speaking you take the best player available in the MLB draft without any real concern to position or organizational needs. Even more so if you've got a top 10 pick. Bonus demands and injury concerns need to be considered as well, but first and foremost is getting the best player you can with the highest ceiling. You take educated home run swings in the first round so if Rocker is the best player available at #8 take him unless you think his shoulder is about to explode and he'll never be the same.

[tony&rodney]

Boras is an agent and a good one for his clients. The clients make their own decisions and it is simplistic to believe that all Boras clients are incapable of making their own decisions. I'm befuddled why so many see Scott Boras as a draft strategy. The Twins should always go after the best player available. The baseball draft is difficult enough for producing positive results and paying attention to an agent only complicates the process.

[Minny505]

It really depends if it's a shoulder issue or a UCL. If it's a UCL, go for it. Drafting him to go under the knife, then pitch 6 MLB seasons for your team, is a great proposition with his level of talent.

If it's shoulder or something else that looks more chronic in nature, then picking him after round 1 seems reasonable, though still risky.

It really depends on the info we don't have. 

[bean5302]

Boras is irrelevant in my opinion. The Twins will pay whatever it is they think a player is worth and they'll almost certainly have 8+ years of team control over Rocker where Boras really isn't an issue anyway.

I think Rocker will probably go off the board before the Twins have a chance to draft him if Rocker remains healthy and pitches in dominant fashion. I think he's equally (more) likely to blow out his UCL and need to take whatever any team is giving him, to be honest. In the case Rocker blows his UCL out, the Twins should be able to pick him up in later rounds... much later if MLB adopts the age 29.5 free agency rule. Guessing round 5+.

Personally, I think Rocker took one for Boras and other college players last year by not signing at the reduced value, though I doubt he realized the risk. He's already 22. Figure a bare minimum of 2 years in the minors, then 6 years of team control and Rocker hits free agency at 30. If MLB adopts the 29.5 age free agency policy, Rocker will be less attractive to teams because he'll probably be a free agent after 4-5 years on the 40 man. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I was going to chime in to add any critical information or questions that came up. But.... these comments are really good. There's a reason that TwinsDaily is the best place for Twins fans and it's because of the educated visitors/posters (not my mediocre articles).

[twinstalker]

Should we draft Rocker so it can take us years to diagnose his UCL tear as a strain, then try to rehab him for a couple of years until finally having him undergo TJS to lose another couple of years?  Yeah, let's do that.  Wait until you see how long Canterino and Duran go through this (Duran starting in 2020 actually).