Twins Daily 2022 Top Prospects: #5 Joe Ryan

[Cody Christie]

Nelson Cruz had been the heart and soul of the Twins line-up over the last three years. However, acquiring Joe Ryan for Cruz's expiring contract may go down as one of the best trades in team history. 

 

Age: 25 (DOB: 6/5/1996)
2021 Stats: (Triple-A/MLB): 92 2/3 IP, 3.59 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 122 K, 17 BB
ETA: 2021
2021 Ranking: NR

National Top 100 Rankings
BA: 86 | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: 96

What's To Like
During his professional career, Ryan has been a strikeout machine, and he continued that trend at the big-league level last season. Throughout his minor league career, he struck out 13 batters per nine innings with a WHIP under 0.90. During his five big-league starts, Ryan struck out 30 and only walked five. He provided quality starts in four of his five starts and pitched into the fifth inning in every appearance. Ryan showed that he has little left to prove in the minors and can immediately join the Twins rotation.  

So, how does Ryan accumulate all of these strikeouts? He offers a unique arm angle that makes batters perceive that the ball is coming at a higher velocity. Also, Ryan has excellent command, as evidenced by his walk rates throughout his professional career (2.1 BB/9 in the minors). His change-up and slider were also better than advertised as he can tunnel the ball well to keep batters off-balance. Out of his 30 strikeouts, 13 came from his off-speed pitches, which he throws 34% of the time. 

What's Left to Work On
Ryan shouldn't see the minors again, so the bulk of his development is tied to his adjustments at the big-league level. One of the biggest knocks against Ryan in his career has been his fastball-dependent approach. He threw his fastball nearly two-thirds of the time at the MLB level. Out of the 16 hits he allowed, ten came off his fastball, including five extra-base hits. His fastball velocity (91 avg mph) is significantly below the league average, but his unique arm angle makes it challenging for batters to track the ball. Will MLB hitters be able to find more success against him next season? That remains to be seen. 

 

His home run rate was also higher than some would like from a possible front-line starter. During his five MLB starts, he allowed four home runs which translates to a 1.4 HR/9. Ryan works high in the zone with his fastball, resulting in more fly-balls and home runs. In the minors, his career HR/9 rate was under 1.0, so there is some element of small sample size with his MLB total. His fastball is such a weapon up in the zone that he will continue to use it, and fans will have to be okay with him allowing an occasional home run.

Ryan also needs to prove he can neutralize left-handed hitters with his off-speed offerings. In the minors last season, lefties posted a .650 OPS, which was 173 points higher than righties. His home run rate was higher, and his strikeout rate was lower when facing southpaws. Lefties went 7-for-47 (.149 BA) against Ryan at the big-league level, but they collected three of the four home runs he allowed. Can Minnesota help him find an off-speed pitch to limit damage from left-handed hitters?

What's Next
One of the reasons Minnesota traded for Ryan was because he was big-league ready. The Twins starting rotation has holes to fill for Opening Day, and Ryan looks like the team's number three starter. It will be imperative for the team to track his innings throughout his rookie season. He has only pitched more than 100 innings in one of his professional seasons, which was back in 2019. 

Is Joe Ryan going to develop into an ace that Twins fans have been clamoring for in recent years? This seems unlikely, and there are few of these pitchers in baseball. However, he is big-league ready and projects near the top of the team's rotation for years into the future. Are you excited about the Joe Ryan Experience? If not, get ready to jump on the bandwagon. 

Previous Rankings
Honorable Mentions
Prospects 16-20
Prospects 11-15
#10: Josh Winder, RHP
#9: Chase Petty, RHP
#8: Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
#7: Jhoan Duran, RHP
#6: Matt Canterino, RHP
#5: Joe Ryan, RHP
#4: Coming tomorrow

View full article

[HrbieFan]

How cerebral is Ryan on the mound? Does he know what happens if contact is made on a certain pitch? Does he set up his pitches? He seems to have a bulldog mentality on the mound and I love that in his makeup. I see his control of his fastball and think of Maddux painting the corners or inducing a pop up. Neither guy has much for gas, but you don't need it if you can paint. 

[miracleb]

I have high hopes for Ryan and the speed of the fastball isn't necessarily everything.  I think the problem right now is that we would like him to be: "Ryan looks like the team's number three starter."  Unfortunately, he is probably our #1 starter right now......

[mikelink45]

I saw the number 3 starter and wondered what crystal ball you were looking at.  Pick a number one and two from Ober, Bundy, Dobnak, Thorpe... He is the default number one right now.

[jmlease1]

Ryan is a really interesting player. Yes, he's a bit homer-happy and that's clearly depressing some scouts valuation of him, but I think the HR/9 rate is survivable if he brings it down even just a little. (Brad Radke? career HR/9 of 1.2) If he can refine his off-speed pitches a little more, it should let him finish off hitters faster (which will let him get deeper in games) but will also keep his fastball harder to square up on. 

He's certainly fun to watch. It's going to be really interesting to see if getting more tape on him is enough to help hitters adjust to the funky arm slot and different delivery or whether it's one of those things that has to be experienced to wrap your brain around. I'm looking forward to seeing how he does in a full season, how his stamina looks after throwing 90 pitches and whether the team lets him go another inning. How does he do on 4-5 days rest instead of 6-7. How does he look after making 15+ starts and the season starts to really grind?

I like a lot of things about Ryan, and I think he's got a bright future as a rotation fixture.

[jorgenswest]

There were a few sobering reports at the time of the trade.

There was reasonable concern about home runs as well as pitching with runners on base. He didn’t allow many runners on base in the minors but was hit much harder with runners on base. The comps to his pitching style and release from Eno Sarris were Ben Lively and Yusmeiro Petit.

In any case he is ready to be in a major league rotation today. That is a great return for two months of a DH. 

[RJA]

Good summary, Cody.  I am optimistic about Ryan not because of his fastball which is uniquely effective, but because of his secondary pitches and his plus control.  I did not expect, based on the scouting reports I had read, that his secondary pitches would show as well as they did.  I think you are quite right that these pitches are crucial to his success.  If he can tweak them a bit and develop a solid pitch selection strategy, he could have long term success.  The one cautionary note I would add is that he hasn't been around the league a lot yet, and until he has, we won't know for sure how well he adjusts when hitters are more familiar with him.

[tony&rodney]

Ryan had a very good initial run last season and I'm very hopeful that we can get solid production from him in 2022. If Ryan can start 25-30 games this year, he would be a really good guy to have in the #5 slot behind Ober. Scouts and MLB batsmen collect detailed information on pitchers which Ryan will need to counteract. Baseball is a constant stream of adjustments and Ryan may have the intellectual fortitude to meet those challenges. The Twins are counting on him.

[Karbo]

I have to agree with others that while he looked good in his debut, the sample size is much to small to get too carried away. These are very good hitters that make adjustments as they see video and the more they see the better adjustments they make. So the question I ask is can Ryan make small adjustments at this early stage of his career to keep these hitters of balance? Only time will tell. If he can we should have a quality starter for the next few years.

[roger]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Ryan is a really interesting player. Yes, he's a bit homer-happy and that's clearly depressing some scouts valuation of him, but I think the HR/9 rate is survivable if he brings it down even just a little. (Brad Radke? career HR/9 of 1.2) If he can refine his off-speed pitches a little more, it should let him finish off hitters faster (which will let him get deeper in games) but will also keep his fastball harder to square up on. 

He's certainly fun to watch. It's going to be really interesting to see if getting more tape on him is enough to help hitters adjust to the funky arm slot and different delivery or whether it's one of those things that has to be experienced to wrap your brain around. I'm looking forward to seeing how he does in a full season, how his stamina looks after throwing 90 pitches and whether the team lets him go another inning. How does he do on 4-5 days rest instead of 6-7. How does he look after making 15+ starts and the season starts to really grind?

I like a lot of things about Ryan, and I think he's got a bright future as a rotation fixture.

Great comparison to Radtke, jm.  Who wouldn’t love another Radke on this staff.

[DocBauer]

Love his control and was surprised how good his slider and change looked when I watched him. While I'm certain there remains room for improvement, what I saw was ML ready and solid across the board.

Bad games happen for everyone, so I'm not too worried about his last game. Again, these things happen. But as I recall, he was off schedule slightly after attending a family funeral. 

[chpettit19]

I have very little doubt that Ryan is a major leaguer, but I'm not sure he's a long-term starter. He feels like a righthanded Josh Hader to me. I see him coming out of the bullpen and being able to throw multiple innings or coming in and getting an important K when needed. No reason to make any kind of move to the pen yet, but that's where I see him ending up in the long run. Just think multiple times through the order and guys will get on top of that FB better and balls will be leaving the park too much to be a sustained starter for his career. But he deserves every chance to prove me wrong!

[Doctor Gast]

Although I'm hopeful about Ryan, I'm not convinced about his future success. Good hitters will adjust and when they do he will be clobbered, will he be able to adjust? Like Karbo said "only time will tell"

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

I have to agree with others that while he looked good in his debut, the sample size is much to small to get too carried away. These are very good hitters that make adjustments as they see video and the more they see the better adjustments they make. So the question I ask is can Ryan make small adjustments at this early stage of his career to keep these hitters of balance? Only time will tell. If he can we should have a quality starter for the next few years.

 

[RJA]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I have very little doubt that Ryan is a major leaguer, but I'm not sure he's a long-term starter. He feels like a righthanded Josh Hader to me. I see him coming out of the bullpen and being able to throw multiple innings or coming in and getting an important K when needed. No reason to make any kind of move to the pen yet, but that's where I see him ending up in the long run. Just think multiple times through the order and guys will get on top of that FB better and balls will be leaving the park too much to be a sustained starter for his career. But he deserves every chance to prove me wrong!

Interesting take.  Great addition to the conversation.

[TwinsDr2021]

To me the only reason he isn't number 1 is that he is already 25. He didn't even pitch in the minors until he was 23, but that year TB didn't waste time and had him pitch at A, A+ and AA. Then after 2020 moved him right to AAA. So in less than 2 years in the minors he was pitching in the Olympics and in the majors, that is great. With him turning 26 in June he doesn't really have the luxury to not be pretty darn good most of the time, which I believe he will be with his age, ability and experience of the Olympics. Him and AK are the only two plug and play young guys, all the others are fingers crossed .

[Twins33]

I am not rational when it comes to Ryan. Gut feeling, he becomes our next Berrios results-wise. I think he could even be a bit better than that, but again I said I’m not rational. I hope my gut is correct. 

[old nurse]

7 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I have very little doubt that Ryan is a major leaguer, but I'm not sure he's a long-term starter. He feels like a righthanded Josh Hader to me. I see him coming out of the bullpen and being able to throw multiple innings or coming in and getting an important K when needed. No reason to make any kind of move to the pen yet, but that's where I see him ending up in the long run. Just think multiple times through the order and guys will get on top of that FB better and balls will be leaving the park too much to be a sustained starter for his career. But he deserves every chance to prove me wrong!

Hader has not thrown multiple inning games the last two seasons and is not projected to do so in the future

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, Twins33 said:

I am not rational when it comes to Ryan. Gut feeling, he becomes our next Berrios results-wise. I think he could even be a bit better than that, but again I said I’m not rational. I hope my gut is correct. 

You may not be rational, but your thoughts/hopes aren't unfounded or ridiculous.

With very little exception, virtually all SP take a season or two to learn, grow, and adapt and "become" what they are going to be, more or less. Just in regard to Twins history, the aforementioned Radke looked decent as a rookie, but was far better after his first year or two.  Berrios, for all his stuff and future results, didn't debut with great results. Gibson is similar, though he was never as good as Berrios. Now, that doesn't mean a SP can't continue to get better! Pitching is an ART, and NOT pure velocity. If it were, then the road to success wouldn't be paved with the failed careers of mid to upper 90's fastball failures. (Hope that doesn't sound mean). To take it a step further, again with little exception,  the guys who achieve ACE status, are utterly unpredictable. They "happen", and generally speaking, they "happen" over time.

But back to your irrational thinking, LOL, Ryan is smart, athletic, and determined. (Berrios characteristics). And he's off to a great start, in SSS. The difference between the two is pure velocity. And again, velocity is NOT everything. (Radke comparison again). Ryan's FB plays faster. His control is already solid. As I stated earlier, his secondary stuff was better than reported initially. But without pure velocity to fall back on, he needs to continue to refine his secondary stuff as well as his knowledge/ART of pitching.

But that is going to be true of ALL of the Twins prospects, some of whom have that better velocity. So that's not to shade your thoughts/hopes at all. I also like this guy a lot. He could be just as good, just different. But we probably won't know for sure how good he might be until 2023, no matter what he does in 2022. And this holds true for Ober, and everyone who appears in 2022.

[jimbo92107]

Joe Ryan is going to be tons of fun to watch. For one thing, his riding heater tempts hitters to swing higher, since they're missing on average three inches low. If they do start to adjust, then Ryan can counter that problem by simply mixing in a two-seamer, same delivery, a few inches lower. Which heater will it be? Whoopsie, it's the curve or the change! 

[chpettit19]

13 hours ago, old nurse said:

Hader has not thrown multiple inning games the last two seasons and is not projected to do so in the future

Good for him? What's your point? He's also never started a major league game and Ryan has already done that multiple times. I think the point of my statement was pretty clear. I wasn't predicting he has Hader's exact career, but was clearly comparing what I see as a possible future fit for him being as what Hader has spent over half his major league career doing. There's roughly 100000000000 variables that will play into exactly what his role looks like. The Brewers have developed 3 legit aces and have multiple shutdown arms in their pen now to the point where Hader no longer had to be the "do it all" reliever so his role changed. If the Twins suddenly have a Burnes, Peralta, and Woodruff in their rotation and Hader and Williams in their pen I'd expect roles and pitcher usage would change. But I don't know anyone who's predicting the Twins to have 3 homegrown arms turn into Burnes, Peralta, and Woodruff so I see the Twins using their pitchers differently than the Brewers currently do.

[Rosterman]

He's going to have to deal with a lot of video and getting thru an order a second or a third time. The game plan, sticking to it, or making healthy adjustments is his key to success.

 

Otherwise, mind willing, he could bvecome the top flight closer the Twins need.

 

But let's give him all the rope he needs to be a top-line rotation arm.

[old nurse]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Good for him? What's your point? He's also never started a major league game and Ryan has already done that multiple times. I think the point of my statement was pretty clear. I wasn't predicting he has Hader's exact career, but was clearly comparing what I see as a possible future fit for him being as what Hader has spent over half his major league career doing. There's roughly 100000000000 variables that will play into exactly what his role looks like. The Brewers have developed 3 legit aces and have multiple shutdown arms in their pen now to the point where Hader no longer had to be the "do it all" reliever so his role changed. If the Twins suddenly have a Burnes, Peralta, and Woodruff in their rotation and Hader and Williams in their pen I'd expect roles and pitcher usage would change. But I don't know anyone who's predicting the Twins to have 3 homegrown arms turn into Burnes, Peralta, and Woodruff so I see the Twins using their pitchers differently than the Brewers currently do.

Your comment was Hader is a multi inning reliever. Your interpretation of why he is no longer throwing multiple inning is just that,  If Ryan fails as a starter he will not be a multi inning reliever like Hader for the same reason he would have failed as a starter,. Your premise was preposterous.

In terms of the Milwaukee staff development, I don’t think anybody by minor league ranking anyone thought the three of them would become what they were last season. So what is your point there?

 

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Your comment was Hader is a multi inning reliever. Your interpretation of why he is no longer throwing multiple inning is just that,  If Ryan fails as a starter he will not be a multi inning reliever like Hader for the same reason he would have failed as a starter,. Your premise was preposterous.

Hader has been a multi-inning reliever for more seasons of his career than he hasn't been. The reason he no longer is doesn't even really matter with the comparison I was clearly trying to make.

The reason I question his ability to stay as a starter is that I question how well the fastball plays multiple times through an order. That's what I said in my original comment. A multi-inning reliever doesn't go through the order multiple times. In fact they rarely go through the order even once. Him failing as a starter in no ways means he couldn't pitch 2 innings out of the pen. I'm sorry that you see not being able to go multiple times through an order as the same thing as not being able to get 6 outs.

[old nurse]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Hader has been a multi-inning reliever for more seasons of his career than he hasn't been. The reason he no longer is doesn't even really matter with the comparison I was clearly trying to make.

The reason I question his ability to stay as a starter is that I question how well the fastball plays multiple times through an order. That's what I said in my original comment. A multi-inning reliever doesn't go through the order multiple times. In fact they rarely go through the order even once. Him failing as a starter in no ways means he couldn't pitch 2 innings out of the pen. I'm sorry that you see not being able to go multiple times through an order as the same thing as not being able to get 6 outs.

Name one do it all reliever then with a 91.3 FB Colome. Is Ryan as a reliever, not Hader

[chpettit19]

18 hours ago, old nurse said:

Name one do it all reliever then with a 91.3 FB Colome. Is Ryan as a reliever, not Hader

Now you're completely moving the goalpost and arguing something completely different. I don't even know what your stance on Ryan is. All you've done to this point is disagree with my comparison between the role I see him playing and the role Hader had for the first 3 years of his career. I didn't even say he would be as good as Hader. Didn't say he has the same type of "stuff" as Hader. I have no idea what point you're trying to prove. 

What does him being a reliever vs a starter have to do with his FB being 91.3? The reason he can throw his FB so much as a starter isn't because of the velo so why would him being able to throw it as a reliever be because of the velo? His fastball works because of his release point being so low. It doesn't move like the hitter's eyes expect it to so they swing under it.

Oh, and Caleb Thielbar threw 64 innings in 59 appearances last year. Which means he had to have thrown multiple innings multiple times. His average FB velo is 91.3. He had a 10.8 K/9 and 132 ERA+ last year. Go look at Colome's career sometime and tell me you wouldn't be happy with Ryan, or anyone, having that career. He has 155 career saves. I have no idea what point you're trying to prove, but you're not doing it.

"I see him coming out of the bullpen and being able to throw multiple innings or coming in and getting an important K when needed." I was clearly describing him as filling the type of role Hader has had for the majority of his career. You're more than welcome to disagree with that. But please provide some reasons why if you'd like to continue this discussion.

[old nurse]

On 2/22/2022 at 2:40 PM, chpettit19 said:

Now you're completely moving the goalpost and arguing something completely different. I don't even know what your stance on Ryan is. All you've done to this point is disagree with my comparison between the role I see him playing and the role Hader had for the first 3 years of his career. I didn't even say he would be as good as Hader. Didn't say he has the same type of "stuff" as Hader. I have no idea what point you're trying to prove. 

What does him being a reliever vs a starter have to do with his FB being 91.3? The reason he can throw his FB so much as a starter isn't because of the velo so why would him being able to throw it as a reliever be because of the velo? His fastball works because of his release point being so low. It doesn't move like the hitter's eyes expect it to so they swing under it.

Oh, and Caleb Thielbar threw 64 innings in 59 appearances last year. Which means he had to have thrown multiple innings multiple times. His average FB velo is 91.3. He had a 10.8 K/9 and 132 ERA+ last year. Go look at Colome's career sometime and tell me you wouldn't be happy with Ryan, or anyone, having that career. He has 155 career saves. I have no idea what point you're trying to prove, but you're not doing it.

"I see him coming out of the bullpen and being able to throw multiple innings or coming in and getting an important K when needed." I was clearly describing him as filling the type of role Hader has had for the majority of his career. You're more than welcome to disagree with that. But please provide some reasons why if you'd like to continue this discussion.

Theilbar is a left handed Ryan is right. You should understand the difference

Hader was a multi inning pitcher for 2 seasons. His career should be longer that 4

Why is 91.  Important when the average FP velocity is climbing to the mid nineties and is higher than that for relievers, Reaction time 

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

Theilbar is a left handed Ryan is right. You should understand the difference

Hader was a multi inning pitcher for 2 seasons. His career should be longer that 4

Why is 91.  Important when the average FP velocity is climbing to the mid nineties and is higher than that for relievers, Reaction time 

Theilbar being left handed makes it even harder to be a multi-inning guy as he would be forced to face a number of righties during that time. Believe me I understand the difference. I like that you have just completely moved on from the Colome complaint.

Josh Hader appearances-innings pitched during his major league career: 35-47.2, 55-81.1, 61-75.2, 21-19, 60-58.2. That's 5 years in the majors. 3 of which he pitched significantly more innings than he had appearances. He was a multi-inning reliever for more of his career than he wasn't.

The point of Ryan's velo not mattering is that you suggested his velo matters as a reliever, but not as a starter. That is just flat out wrong. He throws his FB more than basically any starter in baseball and it's his most effective pitch and always has been. If his FB is effective as a starter throwing it as much as he does it will be effective as a reliever since his velo has never and will never be what makes it effective. 

I appreciate you disagree, but at this point I've disproven every argument you've attempted to make and (I think) very clearly stated why you're incorrect on certain things. I am not predicting Joe Ryan will be as good as Josh Hader. I'm suggesting I see that as the role I think he'll fill as I don't think he can stay as a starter even if I hope he proves me wrong. That's what I've suggested from the beginning and you've bounced all over the place trying to find footing for new arguments as I disprove each of them. I'm now going to respectfully end my side of this conversation. Go Twins! And I hope Ryan proves me wrong and becomes a number 2 starter for the Twins for the next 10 years.