Royce Lewis Continues to Get a Raw Deal

[Nick Nelson]

As each day passes and the likelihood of a shortened season grows stronger, it's time to start considering some broader implications of what this would mean.

One under-discussed dynamic: the uneven playing field for prospect development, all based on who's been added to 40-man rosters. 

Royce Lewis will feel the sting of this more than almost anyone. As if he needed another bad break.

We've already surpassed the original start date for spring training. The deadline for avoiding a delay of the regular season is fast approaching. Insiders see little reason to believe an agreement will be reached in time. 

But that's only the major-league season. Since most minor leaguers aren't part of baseball's union, they're not subject to the CBA or lockout. Thus, those affiliate seasons will begin as planned, starting in early April. 

Except, not all prospects will be able to participate. Those who've already been added to the 40-man roster are now in the MLB Players Association, meaning they're affected by the union's actions and decisions, despite often having never received a big-league paycheck.

By nature of what a 40-man promotion signifies, prospects who are in this category tend to be some of the best, and some of the closest to the majors. For the Twins, this group includes Josh Winder, Jhoan Duran, and José Miranda, all of whom would likely be spending the early part of the minor-league season solidifying their cases for big-league opportunities.

But no player's plight through this lens feels quite as unfortunate as that of Lewis. I say this not from a financial standpoint – his $6.7 million signing bonus from 2017 gives him much more padding on that front than most prospects awaiting their first chances – but from a developmental one.

Let's run through his series of experiences leading us up to where we are at today:

• In 2018, Lewis puts together a fantastic first full pro season, earning his way to consensus status as a top-10 prospect in baseball.
• In 2019, his performance takes a step backward, which is hardly that alarming for a 20-year-old competing in High-A and Double-A.
• In 2020, his minor-league season is wiped out by the pandemic, costing him a critical chance to rebound and get right.
• In 2021, his minor-league season is wiped out by a fluke knee injury, which forces him to spend the next nine months rehabbing.
• Last November, just days before the lockout commenced, he was added to the 40-man roster – a procedural move designed to protect him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft ... which ended up not even happening.

And now, because of that last development, he won't be able to report to Wichita or St. Paul when their seasons start, assuming the lockout persists. Another force completely out of his control, threatening to rob him of direly-needed reps in a crucial stage of growth. 

Meanwhile fellow top prospect Austin Martin, who is in some ways directly competing with Lewis for a shot at the majors, will get to start his season on time, work on his game, and build his case. Purely by virtue of not being on the 40-man roster, even though he's older than Lewis.

Recently, Ted Schwerzler interviewed Royce on behalf of Twins Daily to get a feel for where the snakebitten shortstop is at, physically and mentally. 

In typical fashion, the 22-year-old continued to express upbeat optimism and determination.

"My will to succeed and finally get to the big leagues has continued to be such a driver," said Lewis. "There’s been a lot of things that have been hiccups or hindrances in me becoming a big leaguer, but as unfortunate as they have been, I’d rather be up there and ready than one of those guys that’s overly excited and then has to get sent back down and do it all over again."

This perspective reflects the measured, mature and humble demeanor that sets Lewis apart from so many other athletes on his tier of greatness. It's one big reason that many expressed confidence he'd be able to persevere and overcome the series of setbacks up to this point, and now he'll need to keep relying on his faith and will to succeed. The world keeps conspiring against him and his path to fulfilling his lofty potential.

No player deserves to go through all this, but it's hard to think of anyone who could deserve it less.

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[tony&rodney]

Good article - every time I look at the wrangling between MLB and the MLBPA all I see is damage to the less fortunate players and employees: the young guys looking to get their repetitions and impress, the lesser vets trying to show they deserve another contract, the Spring Training employees, and so forth. The PA wants to get back a small part of what was lost in the last few rounds while the owners seek total control like the NFL; it's a mess. MLB is a cold business. I'm not sure what difference it would make but the anti-trust exemption is long overdue to be lifted.

Winder, Miranda, Duran, and the other young guys need to be in camp now but you are correct to identify Lewis as the player who has lost the most time and needs to play in Wichita or St. Paul without any delays. Hopefully this entire sorry debacle ends this coming week.

[Einheri]

Injuries and a COVID-shortened season and lock-out and no real MLB paycheck to help make up for it = The Big Suck. 

[Game7-91]

The baseball gods have not been kind to young mr lewis the last 3 yrs. MLB could have given that covid season back for Rule5 purposes, but that would have been a decent thing to do. Too late now.

But maybe its not just all fate at work. The 40 man roster has been set for over 100 yrs in mlb. Would it be too much to ask our warring heroes to consider updating/modernizing roster structures? Org's investments in drafting and developing players, both in money and time, and the extremely low chance of success of any one player having a sustantial mlb career, points to a need to expand mlb rosters and extend milb service time prior to R5 draft. Expand to 45 man rosters, and set age 25 as threshold for R5 eilgibility-these do not seem unreasonable updates to a creaky, antiquated system. Players should be given greater chance to develop within the system that signed them. Once the R5 merrygoround starts its over for most- the disruptions to consistency in development when bouncing around one org to another have to negatively impact guys on the margins. Give irg's greater opportunity to polish guys who fall behind or just need more time. There is talent on the margins beyond utility fillers or transient BP help. One wonders how many other Badoos were pigeon-holed too early because of injury, circumstance, or marginal-but-developable skills and subsequently lost to history simply because of a constrained, inefficent rostering system.  MLB has creatively adapted to changing needs over tge last century, why is the rostering system still stuck in 1910?

 

 

A detailed listing of roster limits throughout major league history follows.
In-season
Year(s) # Dates Off-season
1879-1882 5 Reserve limit
1883 11 Reserve limit
1884 25 25
1885-1886 12 Reserve limit
1887-1891 14 Reserve limit
1892 15
6/1892 13 14
1893-1898 14
1899-1900 18 Reserve limit
1901 NL 16 Cutdown date 6/15
AL 15 O/D + 28 days N/A
1902-1909 NL N/A
1902-1903 AL 15 6/1 N/A
1904 AL 16 N/A Cutdown date 6/1
1905 AL 17 N/A Cutdown date 6/15
1906-1909 AL N/A
1910 25 5/15-8/20 40
1911-1913 25 5/15-8/20 35
1914 N/A N/A
1915-1916 NL 21 5/1-8/31 35
AL 25 5/15-8/15 35
1917-1919 NL 22 5/15-8/31 35
1917 AL 25 5/1-8/31 35
1918 AL N/A N/A
1919-1920 25 5/15-8/31 35
1921-1922 25 5/15-8/31 40
1923-1931 25 6/15-8/31 40
1932 23 6/15-8/31 40
1933-1938 23 5/15-8/31 40
1939-1941 25 31st day-8/31 40
1942 25 5/25-8/31 40
1943 25 31st day-8/31 40
1944 25 6/15-8/31 40
1945 30 6/15-8/31 48
1946 30 6/15-8/31 48
1947-1956 25 31st day-8/31 40
1957-1961 28 O/D+30 days 40
25 31st day-8/31
1962-1965 same as 41 including 1 drafted first year player
1966-1967 1957-1961 40
1968-1989 25 O/D-8/31 40
1990 27 O/D-5/1 40 Due to lockout during spring training
25 5/1-8/31
1991- 25 O/D-8/31 40
Sources-Baseball Blue Book, 1910-1986; The Sporting News, The Sporting Life, New York Times, Reach
Guide, Spalding Guide, 1900 National League Constitution, 1990 Basic Agreement

[ziggy]

Has anyone checked to see if the Bad Luck Cloud that has hung over Target Center for decades has drifted over Target Field? I'd swear Lewis and his bad luck was part of the Timberwolves organization.

 

[miracleb]

It will be 4 years since that solid 2018 season.  That is a long time .....I don't care what bad breaks a guy has gotten.  He is only 23 years old (soon,) so this year will let us know if he is back to being a top prospect.......or a Nick Gordon type of contributor.

[baul0010]

Royce seems to have a good head on his shoulders. 

You stated that, "No player deserves to go through all this, but it's hard to think of anyone who could deserve it less."

If you think about it that way, there probably isn't a player in the Twins system better equipped to deal with setbacks like this.  Very few could look at all these situations and stay positive, stay focused, and stay on track like Royce.  He will make it very easy to root for him and his success.    

[mikelink45]

Good look at one of the true victims of this negotiation nightmare.   And I am skeptical of the negotiations, which in fact could have been done during the last season.

[umterp23]

negotiations would be a good thing, but it is currently I puff my chest out and say this with a response of I puff my chest and hold my breath to be the bigger guy and have someone else say this.  No such thing as a negotiation, it will be whoever caves first because of no income hits the wallet the hardest.  Younger MLB guys who don't manage their signing bonus or current $500K minimum salary feel the most heat and urgency to get back to doing their job.  Black eye for everyone involved

 

[RJA]

I think this kid will be fine despite the hardships for the reasons many have mentioned.  It is a little different now than it was even 25 years ago in that there are so many private facilities available for players to work on their game.  While there is no substitute for game at bats, at least they can work on timing, etc.  Plus, players work out together so they will see live pitching.  Still, I agree that this labor negotiation hurts young players and fans more than anyone else.  Settle it for heaven's sake.  Let's play ball.

[jjswol]

Who ever said that life was fair? You get up in the morning and you play the cards that you are dealt for that day. Tomorrow? You do the same thing.

[Karbo]

Once again its the young guys or the "little" guys that feel the pain while the older uber rich guys that have lots of dough sit on their butts and stubbornly wait for the other side to cave. Shame on BOTH sides of you. Think about these kids. Get back to the table and try to negotiate in GOOD faith like you truly WANT an equitable deal instead of this "stick it to the other side" attitude.

[LastOnePicked]

Agreed, Nick. I really feel for him. He seems like a truly great young man, and I hope these trials only strengthen his resolve to be a star-caliber MLB player. Let's hope he still gets a full MiLB season in this year.

I also feel for Twins fans. Small and mid-market teams are much more reliant on top prospects developing into stars, and we also feel the pain. First overall picks like Lewis are supposed to be the upside of the agony of the terrible season. Frustrating for all involved so far.

[roger]

Great article as usual, Nick.

But you missed one highlite in his timeline above, his MVP AFL season in fall, 2019.

With meetings every day this week, maybe it’s time to be optimistic that Lewis will be reporting on time with other minor league players.  When is that?

[USAFChief]

I wonder what Lewis would say if asked "would you rather be on, or off the 40 man roster."

 

I'd guess he'd prefer to be on it.

[RpR]

If he is good enough, he will make the majors, if not, he will not, end of story.

[bean5302]

Royce Lewis' signing bonus was $6.725 million and he doesn't have a single decent performance in the minors at shortstop. Painting him as some sort of tragic victim of ill fate is a bit much.

Lewis has the athleticism to be a Hall of Famer, but plenty of players had the physical attributes. For every Ron Acuna, there are 10 Aaron Hicks' and 100 Joe Bensons.

The median household (including multiple people) income in the United States was $67,000. Royce Lewis' signing bonus was greater than the average household in the United States would earn in 2.5 lifetimes of work. At 5% interest on his net, after tax bonus, Royce Lewis would earn $200,000 a year on interest alone without ever working another day in his life

[Thebigalguy]

If the players and owners can't see that refusing to compromise will cost them fans and money, they're too blind to play good baseball this year. Fans are hungry to congregate and cheer, but sitting in the stands staring at an empty diamond while the boys of summer and their wannabe masters bicker like junkyard dogs on the sidelines is a sorry sight for sore eyes. Royce Lewis is one of many sidelined by such bickering who should be on the field shouting "Let's put some pepper in that ball, boys!" Instead, no pepper, no ball, no men of summer, just the cliche we've all heard too many times: "If you don't do it my way, I'm taking my ball and going home." 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

Once again its the young guys or the "little" guys that feel the pain while the older uber rich guys that have lots of dough sit on their butts and stubbornly wait for the other side to cave. Shame on BOTH sides of you. Think about these kids. Get back to the table and try to negotiate in GOOD faith like you truly WANT an equitable deal instead of this "stick it to the other side" attitude.

They're literally arguing that young guys that make up over fifty percent of playing time get a lot more money. How is that shameful on the older players, exactly? The fight is about young players..... Seriously.

[Squirrel]

Please don't get into the 'Rich vs Super Rich' fruitless discussions. This thread is about Royce Lewis. Yes, the lockout will affect him, as the past 2 seasons have also not been kind to him. But keep this to Royce and leave the generalized discussion for another thread.

[Mike Sixel]

I was never a fan of the pick....I wanted a pitcher, wavering between Greene and I think the guy Tampa picked (who so far doesn't look like a good pick). I continue to hope I was wrong.....He certainly has been hurt by circumstance a lot.....but, well, we'll see I guess. 

[Game7-91]

47 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I was never a fan of the pick....I wanted a pitcher, wavering between Greene and I think the guy Tampa picked (who so far doesn't look like a good pick). I continue to hope I was wrong.....He certainly has been hurt by circumstance a lot.....but, well, we'll see I guess. 

 

Hunter Greene lost one season to TJ recovery, then covid season. Was up to aaa last year, would easily be Twins'#1 pitching prospect.

McKay had thoracic outlet surgery after promising start in mlb.

Both Greene and McKay signed for more bonus $$ than did Lewis. Projectability was not the only criteria in play during that draft.

Lewis might be great someday, but there is no confusion that Twins value discounts on bonuses, so they can spend over slot on lesser prospects in later rounds, more than they value the projectability of a potentially generational talent like Hunter Greene. Quantity over quality....but also pennies over dollars.

It strikes me as a strange way of building talent and prospect value in minor leagues. 

 

 

 

 

46 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

 

 

[Nick Nelson]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Royce Lewis' signing bonus was $6.725 million and he doesn't have a single decent performance in the minors at shortstop. Painting him as some sort of tragic victim of ill fate is a bit much.

Lewis has the athleticism to be a Hall of Famer, but plenty of players had the physical attributes. For every Ron Acuna, there are 10 Aaron Hicks' and 100 Joe Bensons.

The median household (including multiple people) income in the United States was $67,000. Royce Lewis' signing bonus was greater than the average household in the United States would earn in 2.5 lifetimes of work. At 5% interest on his net, after tax bonus, Royce Lewis would earn $200,000 a year on interest alone without ever working another day in his life

Seems weird to dedicate an entire comment to this when I specifically said I wasn't talking about anything financial in the post.

Also your opener here is simply false. He has played 2 seasons in the minors, both against generally much older and more experienced competition, and he was great in one of them.

Were Aaron Hicks or Joe Benson ever viewed as consensus top-10 prospects in baseball?

[TheLeviathan]

At this point, I'd just like to see a full season out of the kid and I think that's all Nick is saying....on the Royce Lewis BINGO card of crappy ways to lose a season "lockout" wasn't welcome.

[jorgenswest]

Lewis, Greene, Gore, McKay and Wright were the top 5. It was a bad year to have a number 1 pick. 

[jorgenswest]

22 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

At this point, I'd just like to see a full season out of the kid and I think that's all Nick is saying....on the Royce Lewis BINGO card of crappy ways to lose a season "lockout" wasn't welcome.

I agree although the author chose to put “Raw Deal” in the title which is sure to bring out more emotion from readers and hence more views and responses. “It would be nice to see a full season from Royce Lewis” wouldn’t bait more readers to join in the discussion.

[Nick Nelson]

15 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I agree although the author chose to put “Raw Deal” in the title which is sure to bring out more emotion from readers and hence more views and responses. “It would be nice to see a full season from Royce Lewis” wouldn’t bait more readers to join in the discussion.

Except that wouldn't accurately reflect the substance of the article since I'm talking about his experience through all this and not ours. "Raw deal" does not connotate anything money-related. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I agree although the author chose to put “Raw Deal” in the title which is sure to bring out more emotion from readers and hence more views and responses. “It would be nice to see a full season from Royce Lewis” wouldn’t bait more readers to join in the discussion.

Yeah, I was expecting (and kind of got) “Lewis keeps getting micturated upon” when in reality almost every minor leaguer lost 2020, almost every baseball player gets hurt and loses significant time, and prior to 1994, there were work stoppages every 3-4 years for several decades and pretty much everyone had to deal with those too.

I think it’s Twins fans that need to calibrate expectations more than any event that was somehow thrust upon Lewis.

[bean5302]

On 2/21/2022 at 2:48 PM, Nick Nelson said:

Seems weird to dedicate an entire comment to this when I specifically said I wasn't talking about anything financial in the post.

Also your opener here is simply false. He has played 2 seasons in the minors, both against generally much older and more experienced competition, and he was great in one of them.

Were Aaron Hicks or Joe Benson ever viewed as consensus top-10 prospects in baseball?

Prospect rankings are valuable; however, they're hardly steadfastly reliable and Hicks was a concensus top 30 prospect. Benson cracked Baseball America's top 100. They were good. They were recognized as good. Draft position determines a heck of a lot in regard to prospect rankings in the early years. Even so, the number 1 overall draft pick is expected to perform at a high level right out of the gate. "Generally against much older and experienced competition" is the apologist excuse for every single underperforming Twins prospect profiled on this site since it's founding. It's valid, to an extent, with rough prospects. Guys taken in 3rd round and later or really raw guys taken later in the first round. It is much less acceptable as an excuse for the #1 overall pick.

While I'm bullish on Lewis because I want him to succeed and I really love his athleticism and attitude, "against much older and experienced competition" doesn't mean he should be terrible defensively (he was) and it provides precious little excuse for back to back below average offensive performances in A+ and AA. Lewis' prospect rank is irrelevant as it doesn't have an impact on when or if the Twins call him up and doesn't change his contract.

Looking at the recent history of 1st overall draft picks and how many years of experience playing in the minors before they started playing at the MLB level, the pattern is pretty evident. The first overall pick usually moves quickly through the minors because they're playing extremely well (against players who are much older and more experienced). 

• 2010 = 2yrs a19 (2x MVP, 6x All Star, RoY) 
• 2011 = 2yrs a22 (4x All Star)
• 2012 = 3yrs a20 (2x All Star, RoY)
• 2013 = 3yrs AAA, retired after multiple shoulder injuries, returned
• 2014 = 1yr A Ball, retired after injuries
• 2015 = 1yr, a22 (Average MLB Starting SS)
• 2016 = 4yrs, a22 (has not looked good)
• 2017 = 4yrs, AA, a22 (Royce Lewis)
• 2018 = 2yrs, a23 (3.2 bWAR in 2021, looks potentially mid-rotation)
• 2019 = 2yrs, AAA, a23 (solid defense, dominant bat high minors as catcher last year)
• 2020 = 1yr, AAA, a21 (crushed high minors pitching, 1.157 OPS in AFL. will start season in MLB probably)
• 2021 = 1yr, A+, a22 (.308/.387/.808, OPS 1.195 in Rk and A+ last year after draft as catcher)

IMHO, Lewis needed 2020 off so he could spend time at the off site working to address the major issues in his game which were widely exposed in A+ and AA and I think put him into a position where he was likely to struggle at AA again. The loss of 2021 really sucked for everybody, but for Lewis who hasn't been impressive considering his draft position so far, it's given him a chance to mature, address issues in his approaches and game and hopefully the athleticism will shine. Either he has what it takes or he doesn't and that will likely all be known in a few short months of play because the excuses time has totally run out.

If Lewis struggles both at the plate and in the field again in the minors, the books can be closed on him in a few short months. It will be because all the altheticism in the world doesn't mean guys will be able to track and adjust to breaking balls or have the confidence to field balls cleanly and throw accurately.