Was the Miguel Sanó Extension a Mistake?

[Cody Christie]

Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler's extensions look like they have worked out well for the team. However, the team's other extension to a player from that international signing class might have been a mistake.

Back in the winter of 2019-20, the Twins were coming off a remarkable season where the club set the MLB record for home runs in a season. One of the most potent parts of the Bomba Squad line-up was Miguel Sanó, who was coming off career highs in home runs (34), SLG (.576), and OPS (.923). He had two years remaining of arbitration, but the Twins decided to sign him to an extension. 

Minnesota signed him to a three-year, $30 million extension in January 2020. The first three years of the deal (20-22) paid him $27 million with a $14 million club option or a $3 million buyout for the 2023 season. At the time, Sanó had been the team's primary third baseman, but the club signed Josh Donaldson weeks after the Sanó extension. Thus, Minnesota moved the burly slugger to a less demanding defensive position. 

The Good
Since signing the extension, Sanó has hit .218/.303/.470 (.772) with a 110 OPS+ and 43 home runs in 188 games. He clubbed 30 home runs for the second time in his career last season. He has posted an above-average OPS+ in each of the previous two seasons. When he makes contact, there's little question about the type of power he can provide. Last season, he ranked in the 97th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, max exit velocity, hard-hit %, and barrel %.

Sanó may have also quieted some injury concerns last season. After missing 155 games between the 2018-2020 seasons, he played a career-high 135 games in 2021. Staying healthy can provide value, especially when he can go on streaks where he seems to be able to hit nearly everything out of the park. In the season's final three months, he combined for an OPS north of .820 and an OPS+ above 120. During a disappointing season, Twins fans may have tuned out in the second half and missed what Sanó was able to accomplish. 

The Bad
At this point in his career, Sanó's expectations aren't going to change even if expectations were higher for him as a prospect. He has a ton of power, but he is a streaky hitter that racks up strikeouts. He led baseball with 90 strikeouts during the pandemic shortened 2020 campaign. Last season, he struck out a career-high 183 times, which ranked fifth in the AL. He also set the MLB record for fastest to 1,000 career strikeouts. 

The value he has provided the Twins has decreased since signing his extension. In three of his first five seasons, he compiled a WAR total of 2.4 or higher. Over the last two seasons, he has been worth 1.0 WAR. FanGraphs pegs his value as worth $7.7 million from 2020-21, and the Twins paid him $11 million just for the 2021 season.

Some of his decline in value is tied to his defensive skills. He led all AL first basemen in errors last season, and he had the league's second-lowest SDI ranking. Sanó was considered a below-average defensive third baseman, but there was hope he'd be able to transition to first base and be closer to average. That hasn't transpired, and the team may need to shift him to a more regular DH role in 2022. 

Sanó is due to make $9.25 million in 2022, and it seems unlikely for the Twins to pick up his $14 million option for 2023. If this is the case, he is entering a contract year that may motivate him. In the end, Minnesota likely could have filled Sanó's line-up spot with a cheaper option for 2022. 

Do you think the Sanó extension was a mistake? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[mikelink45]

Yes - but, it might make it possible to trade him as a DH to the NL.  If that is the case the extension is a good thing.  But we have to start moving players - Kepler and Sano are high on that list for me - if anyone wants them.  Both are extended and by MLB standards they are affordable with some true value in the right place.  If might be interesting to list the potential surplus - players for whom we have a replacement and that have some trade value as well as a list of what another team would see and who would want them.  The old conundrum - we want to trade someone - but we need someone to want them.

[Doctor Gast]

I think Sano's salary was too generous, he could've been had for much less. Polanco & Kepler were much less, Sano's salary should've been in the same ball park. If his salary was lower his expectation would be lower.

Sano' has been disappointing but he is strong and quick, his potential is pretty good. He's fine at 1B. I like his swing at the end of the season if he can maintain that swing, he'd be worth it. 

[blindeke]

Just watch: he'll have a big year this year, make it all worth it.

[Prince William]

Signing your own players to an even minor overpay is not a bad thing.  He is the epitome of 3 outcome baseball. He should be rewarded for various reasons

[h2oface]

Another shortstop when he was originally signed.......

Mistake? No. Just a prayer that he would actually become what he was hoped to become. Twins' luck prevailed. $8,000,000 to Happ.... that's a mistake.

[jorgenswest]

The better question would be is Buxton’s extension a mistake. My answer to that is no.

I am pretty sure in that moment of signing I didn’t believe any of Kepler, Polanco or Sano was a mistake. Sano’s hasn’t paid off but the upside of that deal was real.

They could avoid the risk of a mistake in hindsight by never doing anything. I don’t think they take enough risk. In that frame I hope they risk making more mistakes. I like the upside of the Buxton contract in spite of the risk. I felt the same with Sano.

[Prince William]

1 hour ago, h2oface said:

Another shortstop when he was originally signed.......

Mistake? No. Just a prayer that he would actually become what he was hoped to become. Twins' luck prevailed. $8,000,000 to Happ.... that's a mistake.

Was it half the mistake the Yankees made at 2/34. I think that if it was an analytic based decision they ought to have fired the analyst. 

[Brandon]

Sano's bat took off last season after the league cracked down on pitchers.  So, I think that solves his biggest problem at the plate.  I suspect Sano will have a big year this year.  He is primed to have a 40 HR 100 RBI season.

 

[stringer bell]

I think it was a reasonable gamble that hasn't really worked out. I think Miggy's improved health the past two years bodes well for a productive 2022. I hope the Twins make a good decision about whether to pick up his option for '23. He should be the primary DH this year. I just don't think he'll ever be a good defender. If the Twins don't contend, he might be playing elsewhere in August. 

[Old fox]

Sano~ has seemed to have many red flags that may have ignored. But hind sight versus looking forward is unknown .It time to move on from San~. Cincinnati seems to be a good partner to trade Sano~ and a low prospect for Gray..

[wsnydes]

I don't think it was a mistake.  Issues aside, extending home grown talent with his potential is a good thing typically.  Has it worked out as hoped?  Not exactly, but it can still bear fruit.

While he was signed as a SS, he wasn't expected to stick there.  Becoming a DH only type is a disappointment, but if he can build in his second half of last season it won't be a bad thing.

[bean5302]

Well, it actually wasn't much of an extension. Sano was under team control for 2020-2021 already. the "extension" bought out Sano's arbitration years and 1 year of his free agency (2022) with 1 additional year of free agency (2023) as a team option.

Do the Twins wish they hadn't done it? Sure, but it's not like Sano wouldn't have remained on the team last year (what would have been his final arbitration year). In the grand scheme of things, it's not a big deal. I'd guess Sano would get $5-8MM on the free agent market right now so the Twins are really only overpaying him by a few million for one year (provided we have baseball this year...)

[Rosterman]

Cristian Guzman, who was talked about elsewhere...I keep remembering when he signed four years with the Nats for $14 m illion and our infamous Dark Star said "Nats signed him for $14 million, NATS SIGNED HIM FOR $14 million." Emphasis meaning that it was either a great deal, or they overpaid for someone who wouldn't have to really work hard to produce.

 

Sometimes, I feel the same with Sano. He got that bonus. Put him in a good situation. And the Twins keep throwing money at him that he never ever thought possible. The player then has to decide that THIS IS GREAT or "I can make a ton more money if I really work hard, produce, and wow the sky is the limit."

 

He strikesout. He kills a rally. He can surprise with a loud dinger. Sometimes he seems to be working hard and listening, then abck to chasing low and waaaay outside.

 

If the contract continues into 2023 for the Twins, it is NOT a good contract. Can they trade him now, maybe if a DH happens in the NL. But any sign he shows of pop and average and fielding ability might make him tradeable during the season. Or teams will jsut wait the Twins out and see if they cut him loose, with a $3 million check for doing nothing.

[nclahammer]

I have never seen a player coming off of a 30 homerun season get ripped so much.    Only 43 players in MLB hit 30 or more homeruns in 2021, and Sano was one of two to do it for the Twins (Jorge Polonco the other.)    I hear the gripe that his 30 homeruns resulted in only 75 RBI.  Well, a player can't get on base and then drive themselves in with a homerun, it takes baserunners to do that.   RBI is more a reflection of where a players is batting in the line-up, and who is getting on base in front of them.     And oh' Sano strikes out wayyy too much complaint...he always has, and everyone strikesout too much.   Miguel was one of 5 players on the Twins with over 100 strikeouts.   Sano certainly has his faults, and hopefully his batting average will climb up to the .250 - .260 mark to go along with his dingers, I can live with that.    I think the Minnesota Twins can too.

[Dave The Dastardly]

Sano is redundant. The Twins have better defensive options at first and any number of players they can rotate at DH. Those options may not hit 500' homeruns, which don't count anymore than a homerun that squeaks across the wall by 2", but they do strike out less, get on base more and hit for better average; less outs, more RBIs.

[jmlease1]

I wouldn't call the extension a mistake: while it hasn't worked out as well as the Twins would have liked, it wasn't a disaster, and the thought process behind it was absolutely sound. There was some calculated risk involved, but it wasn't a big botch or the result of flawed thinking. I don't expect every move to work out (it's simply unrealistic). I'm generally happy when the Twins are able to sign their own players to extensions, in part because it's more fun to root for players that you've known for a while rather than have a team of mercenaries. It's also usually good business.

Mistake? eh. And if Sano has a big year this season...

[USNMCPO]

21 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I like his swing at the end of the season if he can maintain that swing, he'd be worth it. 

But isn't that the annual conundrum for Sano? Aren't the twins talking about getting consistency from him every year. How many times have we heard that he is fully committed to play better this year or that he has found a new diet that will make all the difference or that the team only has to wait until June or July for him to find his swing? I am pretty sure the games played in April and May count as much as the ones in July. Don't get me wrong, i love watching him hit bombs too. I just hate watching the 15 strikeouts between bombs. i think it is time to say farewell to Sano with the possibility that NL teams may want him as a DH/1B.

[DJL44]

If it's a mistake it's a small one. I don't know if anyone thought Sano would turn into the worst first baseman in the league. He had been the worst RF in baseball and one of the worst at 3B so people should have considered that he wouldn't look good at 1B either.

[dxpavelka]

NO.  With apologies to Kirby & Herbie and a whole lot of others, Sano is the first Twin since Killebrew that makes me stop whatever I'm doing and watch his AB.  The mistake will be when we he moves on.

[RJA]

The rabbit in the ball in 2019 really skewed the evaluation process for a lot of teams including the Twins.  Sano and Kepler both looked like budding stars, so I am not going to fault the Twins for extensions on one hand and then accuse them of being miserly by not extending Berrios.  I would rather they extend good young players and err on the side of sometimes making a mistake than letting players simply walk. I would have extended Kepler, Sano, Buxton, Berrios and Polanco.  You win some and lose some but you definitely lose whenever a quality player leaves.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

It was the right thing to do at the time and hasn’t hurt the team in any way since.

maybe it didn’t work as the FO hoped, but I hope they do that deal again with Kirilloff or Rooker (or whomever the next budding, on the cusp type player is).

[tony&rodney]

Miguel Sano's contract was a damn good deal when it was signed. He is a polarizing athlete with his propensity to strike out and flail wildly at times. Still, who were all of the better players to take his position and provide 30 bombs? I maintain that pitchers would rather face anyone else in the Twins lineup than Sano. The money is almost irrelevant in today's game. Didn't Happ make nearly as much as Sano last year? Let it play out and we shall see what Miguel comes north this season. The price is still right and I'm not choosing a Rooker over Sano, not that there is anything wrong with Brent but I still am holding out for a full maturation of Sano in 2022.

[miracleb]

The Twins will pick up the option for 14M next year.  A lot of strike out....yep.  30 home runs.....all teams will pay 14M for that.

[Otaknam]

At the time his contract wasn’t a mistake. He has rare power and the FO was hoping he would resemble the player he was when he first came up. He looked to me like a young Miguel Cabrera where he would go with the pitch and not try to pull everything. But he’s become an all or nothing slugger and I doubt that he will change his hitting philosophy. I don’t think Sano’s modest improvement in contact during the last  third of the 2021 season was about MLB cracking down on pitchers as has been suggested. His pitch recognition improved enough to bring his average to .218 from .150. but let’s not celebrate such modest improvement as a future trend.

[chpettit19]

It wasn't a mistake at all. As bean points out it wasn't much of an extension at all really. What it was was cost certainty. They didn't have to play the guessing game with arbitration from year to year and knew exactly what his payroll number was going to be. Every team wants that, even if they end up spending a little more than arbitration would've cost them. There was (and oddly still is) hope that he'd be a higher average player than he is and if that'd have happened the deal would have been a steal. This is how it works. There's a risk/reward balance to all contracts. He's maybe underperformed his deal slightly, but it's not like he's making $20M a year or anything.

I don't like judging contracts in hindsight. The thought process at the time was sound and the contract was more than reasonable. It's a good deal I'm sure many here complaining about it wish they would've been able to do with Berrios. They reached agreements with Polanco, Kepler, and Sano at roughly the same time. That group of deals has been very good for the team. They get 3 legit major league players for a more than reasonable cost with certainty that allowed them to spend more on someone like JD since they knew any of those 3 guys blowing up would've caused skyrocketing arbitration prices. That was good asset management.

[Doctor Gast]

On 2/20/2022 at 9:52 AM, USNMCPO said:

But isn't that the annual conundrum for Sano? Aren't the twins talking about getting consistency from him every year. How many times have we heard that he is fully committed to play better this year or that he has found a new diet that will make all the difference or that the team only has to wait until June or July for him to find his swing? I am pretty sure the games played in April and May count as much as the ones in July. Don't get me wrong, i love watching him hit bombs too. I just hate watching the 15 strikeouts between bombs. i think it is time to say farewell to Sano with the possibility that NL teams may want him as a DH/1B.

That's my point. His swing in the past, has been geared to hit those towering bombs. His swing at the end of the season to me seemed more compact. This swing gives me hope that he'll cut way down his SOs and yet he's strong enough to get more than his share of HRs. If he goes back to his old ways, I say ship him.

[Minny505]

The extension is a one year deal for 9.25mil with a team option. That may be a slight overpay for the market, but really only by a million or two. We'll find out this year if the contract belongs in the JA Happ column or the Rich Hill column.

"There is no such thing as a bad one year contract" is a MLB axiom for a reason. 

[bean5302]

On 2/20/2022 at 7:11 AM, nclahammer said:

I have never seen a player coming off of a 30 homerun season get ripped so much.    Only 43 players in MLB hit 30 or more homeruns in 2021, and Sano was one of two to do it for the Twins (Jorge Polonco the other.)    I hear the gripe that his 30 homeruns resulted in only 75 RBI.  Well, a player can't get on base and then drive themselves in with a homerun, it takes baserunners to do that.   RBI is more a reflection of where a players is batting in the line-up, and who is getting on base in front of them.     And oh' Sano strikes out wayyy too much complaint...he always has, and everyone strikesout too much.   Miguel was one of 5 players on the Twins with over 100 strikeouts.   Sano certainly has his faults, and hopefully his batting average will climb up to the .250 - .260 mark to go along with his dingers, I can live with that.    I think the Minnesota Twins can too.

Looking at Sano's home runs in a vacuum make him look good, but evaluating his overall play turns him into a poor performing MLB player... or even a below average AAA replacement player.

It's not the strikeouts, per se. It's how he strikes out and when he strikes out. Sano is an automatic out when the opposing team needs it which is why Sano consistently posts negative WPAs (Win Probability Added) and Sano's horrendous defense coupled with his poor on base skills and base running mitigate his offensive value in more traditional metrics. Then there are his personality and effort issues.

Sano is a not a good MLB player, but he's got good power. I doubt anybody in here wouldn't absolutely love seeing a future where Sano shows up in shape at 225lbs and committed to working hard to improve his game in all facets. He'd be a 5 WAR player if he did this. Instead, he looks more like Oswaldo Arcia to me.

[USNMCPO]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

That's my point. His swing in the past, has been geared to hit those towering bombs. His swing at the end of the season to me seemed more compact. This swing gives me hope that he'll cut way down his SOs and yet he's strong enough to get more than his share of HRs. If he goes back to his old ways, I say ship him.

I would agree. My concern is that he has a long history of slow starts so how do we know if he has solved his issues or has to relearn the same lessons every year. This may be the year that the market may make moving him a worthwhile effort.